We’re fast approaching the final couple of weeks of the NHL regular season, and the playoff races are at a boiling point.
If there’s one thing that’s clear now, it's that the battle for a wild-card spot is shrinking by the day.
The Eastern Conference is still more competitive, while the Western Conference playoff race has come down to only a few teams. But in the cases of both conferences, the final playoff seeds won’t be decided until the final days of the season. That means there will be much more drama in the next month and intense contests from here on out.
As it stands, there are a handful of teams that did challenge for a playoff spot earlier this season but are more or less now out of the playoff mix, according to moneypuck.com odds. We’re talking about the Utah Hockey Club (0.8 percent chance of making the playoffs), the Detroit Red Wings (3.9 percent) and Columbus Blue Jackets (16.8 percent). A minor miracle will have to happen for just one of these teams to make it into the post-season, let alone all three teams.
Utah started to make things really interesting earlier in March but is 4-4-2 in their last 10 games, falling to 10 points behind the red-hot St. Louis Blues. The Blue Jackets and Red Wings are a hot streak away from getting back into the race, but considering Columbus is 2-7-1 in their last 10 games and Detroit is 3-7-0, it’s not looking great despite only being two and three points behind the Montreal Canadiens, respectively.
In the Western Conference, the Calgary Flames (18 percent) and Vancouver Canucks (19.2 percent) have a better shot at making the playoffs than Utah but need almost everything to go right in their final games.
Their fate is not entirely in their own hands, because the two teams currently above the Flames and Canucks are both looking likely to make the playoffs.
The surging Blues (73.1 percent) and Minnesota Wild (92 percent) are looking like safe bets to make it into the playoffs. One of them would need to totally fall apart to open up the door for Calgary or Vancouver to get in.
Although the Wild fell out of the top three in the Central Division because of injuries to star left winger Kirill Kaprizov and center Joel Eriksson Ek, they’re still two points ahead of St. Louis, seven ahead of Vancouver and eight ahead of Calgary.
St. Louis won eight games in a row to get to this point – they were out of a playoff spot two weeks ago but now have a five-point cushion with two more games played than Calgary.
There is even less certainty in the race for the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.
The first wild-card spot is coming into focus. The Ottawa Senators lead the Canadiens by six points and sit eight points behind the Tampa Bay Lightning for third place in the Atlantic Division, so they look pretty set to end their seven-season playoff drought and face the top team in the Atlantic. Funny enough, as of March 28, MoneyPuck gives the Senators a slightly higher chance of making the playoffs (98.6 percent) than the Edmonton Oilers (97 percent).
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The Canadiens, New York Rangers and New York Islanders are still in the thick of things. Montreal holds the second wild-card spot by one point over the Islanders and Rangers, but the Blueshirts played one more game.
MoneyPuck currently gives the Habs the best shot of earning a playoff spot at 34 percent, followed by the Rangers (26.1 percent) and the Isles (22.8 percent). These teams – and Columbus or Detroit if they turn red-hot for a final push at the post-season – should give NHL fans a thrilling finish to the regular season.
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Another valuable site, tankathon.com, ranks the teams with the most difficult remaining schedules. The Red Wings have the toughest schedule, so they’re not getting much help at all.
After that, the Islanders have the third-toughest schedule, the Canucks’ is fourth-toughest, the Blue Jackets’ is ninth-toughest and the Blues’ is 10th-toughest.
At the opposite end of that spectrum, the Senators have the fourth-easiest schedule, only playing three teams currently in a playoff position in their final 11 games.
In any case, there could be some upsets ahead, and the other big battle – for positioning at or near the top of the four NHL divisions – will also come down to the wire.
You can say what you will about the league’s points system, but you can’t argue that it doesn’t do what it’s tasked to do – to keep as many teams in the playoff hunt for as long as possible.
We’ll have to wait a while longer before the post-season picture is complete, but until then, we’ll be treated to high-stakes hockey virtually every night. That will make for high drama from now right through the Cup final.
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