Connor Hellebuyck believes the boxscore doesn't tell the whole story.

The Winnipeg Jets goalie doesn't think his play was the reason his team lost in five games to the Colorado Avalanche in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In fact, he claims he was locked in.

"You're probably not going to believe when I say I was playing the best hockey of my career, but that's truly how I was feeling," Hellebuyck said Thursday. "Not only was I playing some of my best hockey, but I was in that zone where you're not thinking, you're just playing. That's what you seek after. That's a dangerous thing in sports. To not be able to keep four goals off the board, it's heartbreaking."

Hellebuyck allowed at least four goals in each contest and failed to post a save percentage better than .872 in any single game. For the series, he registered an .864 save percentage and a 5.23 goals-against average.

However, Hellebuyck also faced the most shots, made the most saves, and allowed the most goals of any netminder in the postseason. His minus-6.47 goals saved above expected represents the worst of any goalie in the playoffs, per Evolving-Hockey.

The 30-year-old credited the Avalanche for taking away his eyes via net-front screens.

"You gotta give them some kudos for what they did, but looking back, I don't know if I even saw half the pucks go in the net," he said. "They did a great job, but for me to not be able to put my foot down on a single game is really heartbreaking because it's not typically how I do things."

Hellebuyck is a heavy favorite to win his second career Vezina Trophy after posting a .921 save percentage, a 2.39 goals-against average, and an NHL-best 39.35 goals saved above expected in 60 regular-season games.

Jets captain Adam Lowry believes the team didn't play well enough defensively.

"We gave up so many Grade-A (chances)," Lowry said. "Hearing (Hellebuyck) say what he did, there's not really much he can do."

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Elias Lindholm was an NHL All-Star in February, then struggled to live up to the billing. Dealt to Vancouver on the eve of the midseason showcase, Lindholm scored 12 points in 26 games and missed weeks with a wrist injury as the Canucks slipped out of Presidents' Trophy contention.

They still made the playoffs comfortably, giving Lindholm a platform to shine. The Canucks' third-line center sniped their icebreaking goal against the Predators. His faceoff win and hustle on the forecheck created linemate Dakota Joshua's Game 1 winner. In Game 4's overtime, Lindholm's one-timer at the foot of the crease completed a furious comeback, pushed Vancouver to the brink of advancing, and demonstrated why he was a trade target.

To keep pace in an arms race, most Western Conference playoff teams swapped future first-round draft picks for instant help. Lindholm and four fellow pending unrestricted free agents - Avalanche defenseman Sean Walker, Jets center Sean Monahan, and the Oilers' Adam Henrique-Sam Carrick forward duo - commanded that price ahead of the deadline. The Golden Knights surrendered firsts for Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl, and both are signed into the 2030s.

A lot rides on these moves. Rentals can swing a tight matchup or sag under the pressure to contribute, doing little to justify the steep acquisition cost. Teams that trade their upcoming first-rounder risk losing a decent selection if they bomb out of the playoffs. Reaching the conference final or Stanley Cup Final, which lowers the draft pick to the end of the round, makes the gambit worthwhile, though winning it all is the obvious goal.

Henrique pitched in to help the Oilers oust the Kings with a rip under the crossbar in the series opener. Edmonton's nine power-play goals, plus a couple scored right after penalties expired, relieved Henrique of the need to do much else. The versatile 34-year-old has the shot and instincts to own some future clutch moment, either while riding shotgun on Connor McDavid's line or at center in a reconfigured bottom six.

The Golden Knights trail the Stars 3-2 in a Round 1 slugfest. In Wednesday's close Dallas win, Hanifin floated a point shot for his third power-play assist of the series and made an assertive stick check to foil a two-on-one, showcasing his two-way value. Hertl threatened to light the lamp on Jack Eichel's wing but is running out of time to bury pucks. Vegas has been heavily outchanced and outscored 4-0 in Hertl's five-on-five shifts, per Natural Stat Trick.

Colorado's elimination of Winnipeg showed the ups and downs of renting. Walker's ability to skate and spark breakouts on the third defense pair offset the potential downside of trading Bowen Byram for Casey Mittelstadt, who's become a key playmaker up front in the relentless Avalanche attack. Monahan managed one power-play helper in the Jets' defeat, disappointing in his brief stint as second-line center.

Over the past 10 years, 62 players were acquired in-season for packages involving their new team's first-round pick, according to CapFriendly's historical trade tracker. These big bets, executed with urgency before the deadline, were varyingly effective.

Parting with draft assets helped recent champions triumph. Although Vegas missed the playoffs in the season of the Eichel blockbuster, he was the postseason points leader during last year's trip to the mountaintop. The star-laden Lightning brought in complementary pieces over several years, reaching a final with Brandon Hagel after Braydon Coburn, Barclay Goodrow, Ryan McDonagh, and David Savard stuck around to win Cups.

The Blackhawks' deadline addition of third-line center Antoine Vermette, a pure rental, looked genius when he netted multiple game-winners in the 2015 Cup Final. Other champs wheeled and dealed in the offseason. The Avalanche got Darcy Kuemper, the Blues bagged Ryan O'Reilly, and the Penguins procured Phil Kessel for first-round picks in the summers before Cup victories.

First-rounders were swapped like candy in 2023, producing mixed results.

Mattias Ekholm, the steady hand of the Oilers' stellar top pair, continues to tilt the ice with defense partner Evan Bouchard. Retaining Vladislav Gavrikov didn't spur a Kings playoff run. Most Maple Leafs and Bruins reinforcements promptly departed, though Boston's addition and eight-year extension of Hampus Lindholm in 2022 constituted a masterstroke.

Along those lines, Timo Meier has seven more seasons under contract to help the Devils rediscover their oomph. The five picks the Lightning offloaded for depth winger Tanner Jeannot are dearly missed. It could be worse: The Senators haven't been a playoff squad since 2017 despite splurging high picks to land Matt Duchene, Alex DeBrincat, and Jakob Chychrun.

Recipients of first-rounders have ammo to make another move. The Lightning fetched Blake Coleman, a glue guy in both Cup lineups, for a Canucks pick that was part of their J.T. Miller swap. Trading Bo Horvat in 2023 let Vancouver acquire Filip Hronek, who empowered partner Quinn Hughes to chase this season's Norris Trophy. Icing the right mix of players is worth a steep price, especially when another team helps foot the bill.

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.

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And then there was one ... game Thursday night.

The Maple Leafs surprised many and kept "Be-Leaf" alive in Boston in Game 5 with an overtime victory. Now they have to do what they haven't done in a while: win a home playoff game.

Game 6: Bruins (-110) @ Maple Leafs (-110)

If you're confused about what to expect for Game 6, join the club.

Luckily, with no shortage of intrigue, if you don't want to flip the coin on betting a game that's seen its odds hover around a true pick'em, this matchup should keep even the most casual observer engaged. Fluctuating moneyline prices, goalie changes, star unavailability, and four of five road winners have filled this series.

With all those elements thrown into the metaphorical pot, let's look at what's gone into the betting market's closing line for the home team in each game:

Everything mostly made sense in Games 1 and 2. After the Bruins' opening win, they got more credit ahead of the rematch. But that was tempered somewhat by a change from Jeremy Swayman to Linus Ullmark, as Boston kept to its goalie rotation. The Leafs rewarded those seeing the value in backing them against Ullmark as they tied the series 1-1.

A location shift from Boston to Toronto sent the Leafs' implied win probability (IWP) in the market from 44.4% to win Game 1 to 52.4% to win Game 3. During the regular season, an average consideration for home-ice advantage is 3.5% from neutral or 7% for home-to-road. Going to 8% for home ice wouldn't be a stretch in the playoffs.

What happened before Game 4 to send the Leafs from -110 as the opener to -130 as the closing moneyline?

A move from -110 to -130 suggests a 4% increase in IWP with William Nylander in the lineup. Readers of our regular-season betting guide will note that we omitted Nylander from our annual list of "the 4% Club" - the players who mean the most to the betting market. This is likely because Nylander played all 82 games in the last two regular seasons, so we haven't quantified his absence. Of course, the Leafs lost Game 4 somewhat embarrassingly, so 4% might be an overadjustment.

The scene shifted back to Boston for Tuesday's contest. The Bruins went from -135 (57.4% IWP) in Game 1 to -170 (63% IWP) in Game 5. What made the market think it was 5.6% more likely to win?

For starters, the sight of the Leafs' stars bickering on the bench while going down 3-1 in the series and a switch to backup goaltender Joseph Woll wiped out the positive vibes from Nylander's return. But more importantly:

Auston Matthews taking a morning skate sent the line down to -140, only to have it shoot back to -170 when that didn't appear to go well. That's a 5% shift in line with our midseason player value assessment.

Of course, the Leafs won Game 5 without their star sniper, but the underlying metrics aren't ideal. Boston had 13 even-strength high-danger chances to Toronto's five. Swayman (0.99 GSA/x) was good, but Woll (1.65 GSAx) was better. The former shouldn't result in a Bruins victory more often than not, and the latter seems hard to replicate.

What do -110/-110 odds mean for Game 6?

For the Leafs, it's the same price they could be bet at after a win in Boston in Game 2, but there's added uncertainty around Matthews' availability. If Matthews means 5% to Toronto (as the market suggested last game), the Leafs -130 (56.5% IWP) moneyline before Game 4 should be closer to -105 (51.5%) without him.

Maple Leafs -110 suggests Matthews won't suit up Thursday, so backing Toronto is viable for legitimate reasons: If he plays, you're holding a ticket at a valuable price. If he doesn't, the value is still near fair. There's also an illegitimate reason: After six straight playoff losses at Scotiabank Arena, the Leafs are due for a win at home.

If that's too much to fathom, Bruins -110 is a viable price to back Boston without Matthews. But if you wait and he's ruled in, the Bruins' odds will become more inviting, pricing them as an underdog with no guarantee Matthews can make the impact he usually does.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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