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The Bruins vanquished the Maple Leafs on Saturday, breaking hearts in Toronto yet again. While Boston's relief of not blowing a 3-1 first-round series lead was palpable, needing seven games puts the Bs at a disadvantage for Round 2. They shuffle down to Florida for a quick turnaround against the well-rested Panthers.
A significant disparity in rest complicates expectations as we continue to use the tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even-strength play, skating talent, goaltending) to break it all down.
Advanced metrics glossary
- ES = Even strength
- xG% = Expected goals share
- HDCA/G = High-danger chances allowed per game
- GSAx/60 = Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes
- SNIPES = HDC goals + PP goals / HDC + PP chances
Bruins vs. Panthers
| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bruins | +145 | +150 | +1.5 (-150) |
| Panthers | -170 | -190 | -1.5 (+115) |
Tale of the tape
Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.
Skaters' scoring talent
| TEAM | SNIPES | ES xG% | HDCA/G |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bruins | 15.6% | 50.3 | 9.8 |
| Panthers | 13.8% | 55.6 | 8.4 |
Against the Leafs, the Bruins were much better on the power play than at even strength, but 12-of-88 (13.6%) wasn't enough to match their regular-season SNIPES rate, which was fourth among playoff teams. Meanwhile, in five games, the Panthers had the same number of even-strength high-danger chance conversions (six) in 20 fewer chances.
Goaltending matchup
| TEAM | GOALTENDER | GSAx/60 (POST-ASB) | PLAYOFF GSAx/60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bruins | Jeremy Swayman | 0.40 | 1.42 |
| Linus Ullmark | 0.57 | 0.13 | |
| Panthers | Sergei Bobrovsky | 0.42 | 0.39 |
Sergei Bobrovsky was steady against the Lightning, so the Bruins' goaltending situation is far more interesting.
The Bruins had little choice but to roll with Jeremy Swayman, who needs a raise to pay the foreign buyer's tax on his ownership of Toronto. A 1.42 GSAx is unbelievably good. But given the quick start to Round 2, this could be an opportunity to rest Swayman in Game 1 and get back to the rotation Jim Montgomery intended to use before the playoffs started. Linus Ullmark won all three starts against the Panthers this season, racking up a .947 save percentage and 1.62 goals-against average.
Team ratings
Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:
| TEAM | MARKET | SEASON | POST-ASB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bruins | +15.0% | +11.2% | -2.9% |
| Panthers | +20% | +13.7% | +7.8% |
The Bruins and the Maple Leafs both had a team rating 15% above league average, resulting in a close, competitive series. Meanwhile, the Panthers controlled 53% of even-strength play in Round 1, befitting a team with a slightly higher rating than its second-round opponent.
Best bet
Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.
| TEAM | SERIES WIN PROB. | GM 1/2/5/7 | GM 3/4/6 | SERIES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruins | 46% | +143 | +101 | +138 |
| Panthers | 54% | -117 | +121 | -113 |
Based on the entire season, the Bruins have a 46% chance to win the series, while their +150 odds imply a 40% win probability. That 6% difference is likely the result of a rest disparity and the idea that Boston may have been fortunate to beat Toronto, who missed Auston Matthews and William Nylander at various points of the series.
It'll be interesting to see if the market applies that thought process to the games in Beantown since a Game 1 moneyline of +145 suggests the Bruins will be +120 underdogs at home in Game 3.
The Panthers are the better team and boast both rest and home-ice advantage. Any Bruin exhaustion will potentially show up as the players wear down later in the series. Should a theoretically valuable bet on Boston come to fruition, it may be the result of fatigue getting to Florida early - which could help the Bruins take advantage of Bobrovsky's habit of occasional lulls in play.
Here are possible ways to back the Bruins early:
- Correct score after three games: Bruins 2-1 (+195)
- Bruins -1.5 games (+250)
- Bruins -2.5 games (+600)
If the Bruins fall behind early in the series, it'll be surprising if things get better for them as playoff minutes pile up. Acknowledging that Boston could steal low-scoring games early enough to clip Florida, we'll sacrifice some of the Panthers -2.5 payout and play the series game total.
Best bet: Under 5.5 games (+135)
(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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