Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: How to manage Tuesday’s 4-game slate

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During each round of the playoffs, we eventually reach the "housekeeping" portion of the program. Since betting isn't done in a vacuum, we should acknowledge the positions we've previously created in each series to maintain responsible betting practices.

In our Eastern Conference series preview, we played the Hurricanes to beat the Islanders in -1.5 games. With that bet in tow - and two chances for it to cash with series wins of either 4-1 or 4-2 - why would we add a risky -250 moneyline price on the Hurricanes, or bet against ourselves with the Isles?

As for the Western Conference, it certainly wasn't smooth. Then again, we didn't know the Canucks would need three different goalies to get the 3-1 lead we figured they might be good enough to have before Game 5 in Vancouver. We don't have two chances to win a bet here, like with the Canes, but the Canucks are priced at -120 to win a bet we have at +275 odds, plus an in-series bet made at 1-1. It's hard to complain about holding those tickets, regardless of the result.

That leaves two other Tuesday matchups, and we'll apply similar bankroll management logic while working through the handicap for a pair of Game 5s.

Game 5: Maple Leafs (+140) @ Bruins (-165)

We had faith in the Maple Leafs, thinking they could win this series, and if they did, it likely wouldn't happen in Boston in Game 7, so why not take Toronto -1.5 games at a better payout? If you told me Toronto would have the even-strength advantage through four games - 37-26 in high-danger chances and 8.36-7.81 in expected goals - I'd assume the Leafs were at least knotted up at 2-2.

Those numbers - and previous shorter moneylines (+125 and +135) in Boston - suggest there's value on Toronto here. However, that implies full health for Toronto's star players, a willingness to battle, and some strategic or mental edge.

The truth? Without an already sunk cost in the series market, there's no reason to keep be-leaf-in'. The Bruins' moneyline of -165 suggests a 62.3% chance Boston puts Toronto out of its misery. This number seems low based on how the wheels have come off the Maple Leafs, and is definitely low if Auston Matthews can't participate at 100%.

The Bruins haven't been lucky - an 11.5% high-danger chance conversion rate is below the league average. Boston's special-teams advantage isn't likely to be magically flipped either. What should be another turbulent offseason in Toronto starts Wednesday.

Best bet: Bruins moneyline (-165)

Game 5: Avalanche (-125) @ Jets (+105)

While they haven't officially crashed and burned, even the most optimistic Jets bettor can see the writing on the wall. Outside of an atrocious Game 1 from Alexandar Georgiev that gifted Winnipeg a win, it's been a literal avalanche since.

If you ignore the Avalanche's special-teams advantage, they've still driven 59% of even-strength play. Giving Winnipeg a 3.5% bump for home ice would get us to the 55.6% implied win probability the Avs' -125 moneyline suggests. Then apply Colorado's 40% power-play efficiency and a goaltending matchup closer than we ever thought possible, and you're more likely to find value in betting this series to end.

Best bet: Avalanche moneyline (-125)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Quantifying the lack of defense in Oilers playoff games

At Oilers home playoff games, anthem singer Robert Clark holds his microphone aloft as the Edmonton crowd belts "O Canada" in unison. When the music ends and the arena brightens for puck drop, the floodgates open.

Paced by Connor McDavid's transcendent production, the Oilers outscored the Kings 18-10 to take a 3-1 first-round series chokehold. Anything can happen offensively when McDavid or Leon Draisaitl has the puck. For years, the team's defense has been about as volatile.

The Oilers routinely play delirious, uniquely high-scoring playoff games, home and away. To watch Edmonton in this era is to see both goalies barraged. Since the Oilers' current playoff streak began in 2020, their average game has produced the most total goals. The Kings, their recurring opponent in Round 1, trail closely behind.

Game 4 in Los Angeles on Sunday, an unusually subdued 1-0 Edmonton win, was the Oilers' 40th postseason contest since 2020. In that time, different exploits strengthened and sabotaged their Stanley Cup potential.

Over the 40-game span, the Oilers:

◾️ Scored at least four goals in 24 games - a healthy majority of their playoff outings - but managed to lose eight of those matchups, including by 9-6, 8-6, and 6-5 scores.

◾️ Lost twice despite scoring three power-play goals, and lost another despite scoring twice on the power play and once shorthanded.

◾️ Bagged a league-best 1.15 power-play goals per game.

◾️ Thrashed the Kings 8-2, 7-4, 6-1, and 6-0.

Ronald Martinez / Getty Images

◾️ Witnessed McDavid and Draisaitl raise their playoff scoring averages to 1.60 points - 0.01 behind the great Mario Lemieux on the career leaderboard.

◾️ Won McDavid's five-assist dissection of the Kings in last week's series opener but lost his four-point game against the 2022 Flames, squandered Draisaitl's four-assist effort against the 2022 Avalanche, and wasted Draisaitl's four-goal outburst against the 2023 Golden Knights.

◾️ Pushed the 2022 Flames to the brink of elimination despite letting in a shorthanded goal slapped from Calgary's defensive zone.

◾️ Blew enough leads to suffer an NHL-high 10 defeats when scoring first.

◾️ Dropped eight of 10 overtime contests - five times by letting in the winner within the first 4:06 of the extra period.

◾️ Recorded and inflicted some cringeworthy save percentages.

The combination of relentless offense and leaky defense grips viewers. Fans can't look away. If there's time on the clock, Edmonton's deficits and leads seem surmountable.

Early in this year's series, the Kings scored on a slo-mo ricochet off Darnell Nurse's foot, a tic-tac passing sequence after Cody Ceci's stick snapped, and defenseman Drew Doughty's chaotic breakaway. Edmonton's heartier defensive stand in Games 3 and 4 - Stuart Skinner saved 60 of 61 shots - was meaningful. Sunday's road win showed these Oilers can grind, count on Skinner to be in position, and bide time to find and exploit a defensive hole.

Edmonton's eight power-play goals on 15 tries have mostly been tap-ins or one-timers set up by McDavid or Draisaitl. Zach Hyman, an eager recipient of their cross-ice feeds, has netted one fewer goal (six) than his lifeless former team, the Maple Leafs, has collectively. Skinner's first playoff shutout was unexpected, but if he foils chances for rounds to come, the Oilers might finally maximize the return on all this scoring.

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.

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