NHL betting guide: How does the market power rank all 32 teams?

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Don't look now, but it's April.

Even though teams still have more than a handful of games left, we haven't checked in on the betting market's power ratings since the All-Star break. What do those who put their money where their mouth is think of each team?

As a reminder, moneylines are a function of win probability, so each team's rating is based on how much better (plus) or worse (minus) it is than an average team on neutral ice. For example, if your favorite club flies to Sweden and is -150 (60% likely) to beat a league-average (zero) team like the Wild, the betting market has deemed your club 20% better than average.

Below is an estimation of how the betting market rates each team based on recent moneylines. Luckily, at the moment, there are very few player injuries throughout the NHL drastically affecting a team's rating.

NHL betting market power ratings

We included teams' preseason market rating - based on their regular-season points total before the season started - and our estimated rating at the All-Star break (teams with an asterisk are currently in playoff position).

TEAM CURRENT (%) ASB (%) PRESEASON (%)
Oilers* +25 +20 +16
Hurricanes* +25 +17.5 +17.5
Bruins* +20 +17.5 +9.5
Panthers* +20 +15 +8
Stars* +20 +15 +15
Avalanche* +20 +10 +16.5
Kings* +20 +10 +10
Golden Knights* +15 +15 +12
Canucks* +15 +10 -2.5
Rangers* +15 +10 +11.5
Devils +10 +17.5 +17.5
Jets* +10 +12.5 0
Maple Leafs* +10 +10 +16.5
Lightning* +10 +2.5 +4.5
Predators* +5 0 -5
Wild 0 0 +5.5
Penguins -5 +10 +6.7
Sabres -5 0 +1.2
Islanders -5 -3 +1.2
Flyers* -5 -5 -17.5
Blues -5 -15 -7.5
Flames -10 -3 +3
Kraken -10 -5 +1.5
Senators -10 -7.5 0
Capitals* -10 -10 -7
Red Wings -10 -15 -6.5
Coyotes -20 -12.5 -16.5
Canadiens -25 -27.5 -21
Blue Jackets -30 -25 -20
Ducks -35 -32.5 -26
Blackhawks -40 -25 -22.5
Sharks -45 -40 -27

Conceptually, the standings measure what happened yesterday, while market ratings measure what'll happen tomorrow.

The market's still giving the Devils credit as a good team but has backtracked on the Penguins relative to All-Star break expectations. The Flyers and Capitals are currently taking what the market thinks should have been playoff spots for New Jersey and Pittsburgh.

The Predators' rating rose as high as 10% above an average team during their 18-game points streak, but two losses have caused a dip.

There are two types of market scenarios:

  1. A team goes on a run (good/bad) and the market changes its rating along the way. You'll need to be lucky to profit during the streak since the team's price is continuously fair.
  2. A team goes on a run (good/bad) and the market doesn't move. In this scenario, you're likely getting good value betting on/against the team during its streak.

As games pile up, perception snowballs and teams further separate from top to bottom. For example, a 45% gap between the Hurricanes and Sharks - the NHL's best and worst teams - existed before the season and it's up to 70% today.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

  • True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
  • True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
  • True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

DATE GAME WIN PROB. (%) PRICE TO BET
Apr. 1 DET@TB 36.5/63.5 DET +208/TB -167
NYI@PHI 52.7/47.3 NYI -107/PHI +131
COL@CBJ 69.7/30.3 COL -219/CBJ +280
PIT@NYR 45.2/54.8 PIT +143/NYR -117
FLA@TOR 48.1/51.9 FLA +119/TOR +103
EDM@ATL 68.8/31.2 EDM -210/STL +267
LAK@WPG 53.5/46.5 LAK -111/WPG +135
SEA@SJS 65.7/34.3 SEA -183/SJS +230
Apr. 2 FLA@MTL 64.4/35.6 FLA -173/MTL +217
WSH@BUF 41.3/58.7 WSH +168/BUF-136
PIT@NJD 39.1/60.9 PIT +185/NJD -149
CHI@NYI 30.3/69.7 CHI +281/NYI -220
OTT@MIN 40.7/59.3 OTT +172/MIN -140
BOS@NSH 51.9/48.1 BOS -103/NSH +127
ANA@CGY 25.9/74.1 ANA +357/CGY -272
VAN@VGK 41.3/58.7 VAN +168/VGK -136
Apr. 3 TB@TOR 40.1/59.9 TB +177/TOR -143
NJD@NYR 42.0/58.0 NJD +163/NYR -132
EDM@DAL 48.5/51.5 EDM +117/DAL +104
SEA@LAK 36.2/63.8 SEA +210/LAK -169
Apr. 4 NYI@CBJ 57.5/42.5 NYI -130/CBJ +160
TB@MTL 56.4/43.6 TB -124/MTL +153
BOS@CAR 36.8/63.2 BOS +205/CAR -164
FLA@OTT 57.0/43.0 FLA -127/OTT +156
PIT@WSH 56.3/43.7 PIT -124/WSH +152
COL@MIN 52.6/47.4 COL -107/MIN +130
STL@NSH 38.0/62.0 STL +194/NSH -157
CGY@WPG 47.0/53.0 CGY +132/WPG -108
LAK@SJS 70.5/29.5 LAK -228/SJS +292

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Lindros: Flyers shouldn’t have publicized Gauthier trade request

Philadelphia Flyers legend Eric Lindros says he would've handled Cutter Gauthier's trade request differently if it were up to him.

"I would have focused on just saying, 'We wanted Jamie Drysdale and we had to give up this player,'" Lindros told The Hockey News' Michael Traikos. "That's how I would have dealt with it. I wouldn't have publicized the situation. I would have just traded the kid."

Philadelphia shocked the hockey world in January by trading Gauthier - the 2022 No. 5 pick - to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for 2020 No. 6 pick Jamie Drysdale.

General manager Daniel Briere and president of hockey operations Keith Jones were both candid about the reasons for the trade, saying the prospect "didn't want to be a Flyer" despite draft day assurances that he was eager to sign with the club. Jones and Lindros, notably, were teammates for two seasons with the Flyers.

Gauthier said he received death threats from Flyers fans. Though he never provided an exact reason as to why he didn't want to play for Philadelphia, he said "multiple, re-occurring issues" that he'd seen in the organization led to the request.

Lindros can speak on the situation from a unique perspective. He was drafted first overall by the Quebec Nordiques in 1991 but refused to play for them, citing issues with ownership. He was eventually traded to the Flyers for a package including fellow eventual Hockey Hall of Famer Peter Forsberg.

The 51-year-old believes more players should feel free to decide where they want to play.

"I had a great time in Philly," Lindros said. "But if he thinks he's going to have a better time someplace else, then go for it. It's a player's right. The better the city and the organization treats a guy, the more it's going to attract guys. That's a big part of it.

"I don't think a player puts his head down anymore and says, 'Thank you.' Especially a free agent or someone who has been around the league."

Lindros spent eight of his 13 NHL seasons in the City of Brotherly Love, winning the Hart Trophy in 1995.

Gauthier's Boston College Eagles advanced to the Frozen Four with Sunday's win over Quinnipiac. He could turn pro and sign with the Ducks following the completion of the NCAA tournament.

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Hyman to extend shooting streak vs. Blues

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The NHL is back in full force with an eight-game slate coming out of the holiday weekend. Let's waste no time getting to the best ways to attack it.

Miles Wood: Over 2.5 shots

I don't normally target third-liners for overs, but this is an appropriate time to make an exception. Wood has piled up the shots of late, soaring past his total in nine of the past 10 games while averaging 3.8 per night.

He's feasted playing alongside Ross Colton and Zach Parise. Parise has been surprisingly impactful on Wood's shot rates. Wood has averaged 16.21 shots on goal per 60 minutes with Parise on his line at five-on-five, which is top-tier production.

Auston Matthews is the only player in the NHL with more five-on-five shots than Wood over the last 10 games.

Now he draws a mouthwatering matchup against a Blue Jackets team that ranks dead last in five-on-five shot suppression over the same period of time. The Jackets also sit 32nd in terms of preventing shots against wingers.

Wood generated five shots on eight attempts when these teams met a couple of weeks ago. With a generous plus-money price attached, I think there's significant value in backing him to get three.

Odds: +125 (playable to +100)

Zach Hyman: Over 3.5 shots

Hyman continues to produce while riding shotgun alongside Connor McDavid. He's registered at least four shots on goal in seven straight and nine of his past 10 games overall with an average of slightly under five in that span.

Hyman is tied with Wood for second in the NHL in five-on-five shots over his past 10 games. I think it's important to note his prowess at even strength because the Blues don't take a lot of penalties.

The heavy lifting must come at five-on-five, which shouldn't be a problem for Hyman. He's ultra-efficient at generating shots, while the Blues struggle to prevent them. Only five teams have conceded more over the past 10 games.

This game should also feature plenty of pace. The Oilers are third in five-on-five pace the past 10 games, while the Blues come in at 12th.

Hyman has seen St. Louis twice this season and combined for 11 shots on 15 attempts over those matchups.

Look for him to get the job done again this time around.

Odds: -114 (playable to -130)

Brayden Point: Over 2.5 shots

Death, taxes, and Point at home. He continues to be a shooting machine when playing in Tampa Bay.

Point has recorded three shots or more in 25 of 35 games at home (71%). He's showing absolutely no signs of slowing down, having gone over his total in 12 of the past 15 (80%) at Amalie Arena.

I don't see the Red Wings being the team to stop him. They haven't defended well this season, especially when playing on the road. Only the Sharks have conceded more shots per game on the road this campaign.

The Wings also give up a ton of shots to centers. They rank in the bottom five over the past 10 games and 30th for the entire season.

Point's odds are a little shorter than most props I target, but, based solely on this season's hit rate of 71%, a fair price would be closer to -200.

Odds: -150 (playable to -175)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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