Gibson ejected for joining scrum in attempt to fight Mrazek

Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson earned a game misconduct during the third period of Tuesday's blowout against the Chicago Blackhawks after joining a scrum in an attempt to fight counterpart Petr Mrazek.

Gibson skated the length of the ice following a tussle between Radko Gudas and MacKenzie Entwistle in which Mrazek had intervened.

Goalies aren't allowed to cross the red line.

A total of nine penalties were handed out after the skirmish. Mrazek, Gudas, and Blackhawks forward Reese Johnson also received misconducts.

The Blackhawks were up 6-2 at the time of the chaos and added another goal on the power play after the dust settled.

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Report: Devils plan to target Markstrom, Saros in offseason

The New Jersey Devils may not have landed a legitimate No. 1 goalie at the trade deadline, but that doesn't mean their pursuit of upgrading between the pipes is over.

The club plans on re-engaging with the Calgary Flames about Jacob Markstrom and checking in with the Nashville Predators about the availability of Juuse Saros once the offseason arrives, reports The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun.

The Flames and Devils reportedly discussed a trade for Markstrom ahead of the deadline. The goaltender, whose contract contains a no-movement clause, said he wasn't happy about how the Flames' front office handled his situation.

Markstrom has two more years left on his contract with a $6-million cap hit. Calgary was in complete sell mode at the deadline, shipping out notable pending unrestricted free agents Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, and Chris Tanev, among others.

Markstrom is in the midst of a stellar campaign, posting a .910 save percentage in 41 contests. The 2022 Vezina Trophy runner-up ranks second in the league with 31.88 goals saved above expected, per Evolving-Hockey.

The Predators, meanwhile, had no intention of trading Saros at the deadline while they were in a playoff spot. But the 28-year-old will be a free agent after next season, so Nashville could trade him if the two sides can't agree on an extension. The Predators also have Yaroslav Askarov, the top goalie prospect in hockey, coming through the system.

Saros has finished in the top six in Vezina Trophy voting in each of the last three campaigns. He's had a bit of a down year but has still posted a solid .907 save percentage and stopped 7.03 goals above expected while appearing in a league-leading 52 games entering Tuesday.

Poor goaltending has torpedoed New Jersey's season, as its team save percentage of .882 is the second-worst mark in the NHL.

Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald shook up the crease at the deadline, acquiring Jake Allen from the Montreal Canadiens. He also traded Vitek Vanecek - who's under contract next year - to the San Jose Sharks for Kaapo Kahkonen. With Montreal retaining 50% of Allen's contract, which runs through next year, and Kahkonen set to become a UFA, the Devils could make a splash in net this summer.

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Navigating the Hronek Contract Situation

Dan and Sat are joined by former NHL Defenceman and current Avs Analyst, John-Michael Liles, to discuss where the Avalanche are at post-deadline ahead of their game against the Canucks on Wednesday. Also, hear from Canucks Insider Irfaan Gaffar on a disappointing deadline and navigating the Filip Hronek contract situation.

This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The Open: Load Management SZN on Defence

It's The Open as Dan and Sat get into Thatcher Demko's injury update from Rick Tocchet, Tyler Myers being on the mend, and the extensions given out to Canucks AGM's.

This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Atlanta group requests NHL expansion franchise

Former NHLer Anson Carter and the Alpharetta Sports & Entertainment group formally requested the league commences the expansion process to bring a franchise to the Atlanta area on Tuesday.

"I have no doubt that the best league in the world will thrive in its return to Metro Atlanta," Carter said in a statement. "I have been in dialogue with NHL commissioner (Gary) Bettman since 2019 about an expansion team returning to the Fulton County Metro Atlanta market, knowing that franchise decisions are exclusively decided by the NHL Board of Governors."

The NHL has left Atlanta twice. The Flames resided in Georgia from 1972-1980 before moving to Calgary, and the Thrashers played there from 1999-2011 before relocating to Winnipeg.

Deputy commissioner Bill Daly noted in September that the Atlanta area is better equipped to house a NHL franchise now than it was before.

"I think times have changed pretty dramatically and the market demographics have changed pretty dramatically since the first time we went there and then again in 1999," Daly said.

Bettman has stated repeatedly that expansion from 32 teams isn't a priority for the NHL, but Atlanta's request for a team is the second the league has received this season after Utah Jazz owner Ryan Smith expressed his interest in bringing a team to the state.

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March 12 2024 – Jeff Paterson & John Shannon

DeSmith is DeStarter - The Canucks get set for the Demko-less spell, and call up Arturs Silovs to backup vs the Avs on Wednesday. Matt and Blake debate the readiness of the team to win “meaningful games in March” without their Vezina contender, and whether or not fans should expect to see Silovs get any starts in the NHL before the end of the season. 

Rink Wide: Vancouver's Jeff Paterson stops by with the very latest from practice and his own thoughts on the goaltending. Plus, will the line combos remain unchanged as long as the Canucks keep winning? 

John Shannon makes his weekly appearance as well, with a summary of the Canucks at the deadline, DeSmith as worthy successor, and Filip Hronek’s possible price tag in relation to Quinn Hughes. All this, plus a Whitecaps trade, a revamped CMNT roster, and a slew of NFL signings! Presented by Applewood Auto Group.

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March 11 2024 – Patrick Johnston

Demko Drama! The Canucks had one of their most impressive wins of the season on the weekend vs the Jets, but Thatcher Demko’s early departure in that game has Canucks nation rightfully concerned. Matt and Blake discuss how Demko’s workload has figured into this, and what the trust level is in the #2, Casey DeSmith. They also weigh in on the Canucks defensive play of late and how that might factor in their ability to absorb the loss of Demko. 

The Province’s Patrick Johnston stops by to weigh in on all of this well, plus, he talks about how the Canucks cap situation may have been less dire if they had successfully made one particularly creative move. PJ also gets into the Canucks' uncanny record with Carson Soucy in the lineup, and why that is the case. 

All this, plus some NFL signings and a first win of the season for the Whitecaps! Presented by Applewood Auto Group.

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NHL weekday betting guide: What’s a goal worth toward winning probability?

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

We had some fun last week with the betting market's evaluation of players this season. Now it's time to do our math homework, since we should figure out what a goal is worth to a team's theoretical chances of winning.

Through March 10, an average of 6.12 goals have been scored per NHL game. As a result, if you were to practically set targets for your team as you sit down to watch them play, you'd pick two:

  1. Score four goals
  2. Allow fewer than three

If the average number of goals in a game is six, teams should frequently win with four goals or by allowing two or fewer. Look at the league-wide scoreboard on any given night to note how often 4-3, 4-2, and 3-2 final scores occur.

Skater valuations

If four goals should get you a win, each goal scored should be worth 25% toward an expected win, right? Sort of. Since getting to four goals is only half the battle, each goal is actually worth 12.5% toward an expected win.

Each player's valuation should be built on how likely they are to contribute to a goal. With 153 points last season, did Connor McDavid contribute toward 82 more goals than a replacement-level player would have? If you put an average center on the Oilers alongside Leon Draisaitl and on the power play, and they had a 71-point season, the answer is yes. At that point, McDavid's 12% valuation is fair.

If Auston Matthews scores 70 goals this season, he'll have singularly contributed 8.75 wins to the Maple Leafs, who are on pace for 47.4 wins this season. Is he worth 8.75 wins? No, because if Toronto had to replace his role (first line and power play) with a league-average player, that player (think a combination of Matthew Knies and Tyler Bertuzzi) could score 24 goals (three expected wins) of his own surrounded by the Leafs' remaining talent.

Matthews' goals alone could be credited for almost six wins per season. At $11.6 million in salary, Matthews' historic season may net Toronto one win per $2 million spent. In a less-than-shocking development: He's worth it. If everyone else could do that, a team would be a lock for 50 wins per year in this era of the nearly $100-million salary cap.

As an aside: Six wins in an 82-game season equates to 7.3% of Toronto's wins, so last week's 5% market valuation of Matthews is close.

The cheat sheet

The betting world's dirty little secret is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

  • True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
  • True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
  • True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

DATE GAME WIN PROB. (%) PRICE TO BET
Mar. 12 PIT@OTT 50.8/49.2 PIT +107/OTT +114
NYR@CAR 34.4/65.6 NYR +229/CAR -182
DET@BUF 36.8/63.2 DET +205/BUF -164
CBJ@MTL 46.6/53.4 CBJ +135/MTL -110
SJS@PHI 32.5/67.5 SJS +251/PHI -199
FLA@DAL 43.0/57.0 FLA +156/DAL -127
ARI@MIN 34.6/65.4 ARI +227/MIN -181
ANA@CHI 45.1/54.9 ANA +143/CHI -117
COL@CGY 53.0/47.0 COL -108/CGY +132
VGK@SEA 47.1/52.9 VGK +132/SEA -108
Mar. 13 LAK@STL 59.9/40.1 LAK -143/STL +177
NSH@WPG 43.8/56.2 NSH +151/WPG -123
WSH@EDM 29.1/70.9 WSH +298/EDM -232
COL@VAN 56.0/44.0 COL -122/VAN +150
Mar. 14 SJS@PIT 19.6/80.4 SJS +542/PIT -386
OTT@CBJ 57.5/42.5 OTT -130/CBJ +160
NYI@BUF 45.3/54.7 NYI +142/BUF -116
FLA@CAR 38.6/61.4 FLA +189/CAR -153
NYR@TB 49.8/50.2 NYR +111/TB +110
BOS@MTL 62.5/37.5 BOS -160/MTL +199
ARI@DET 46.0/54.0 ARI +138/DET -113
TOR@PHI 62.8/37.2 TOR -161/PHI +201
NJD@DAL 41.2/58.8 NJD +169/DAL -137
ANA@MIN 28.3/71.7 ANA +311/MIN -241
VGK@CGY 44.8/55.2 VGK +145/CGY -118
WSH@SEA 35.5/64.5 WSH +218/SEA -174

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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