Matt and Blake talk about potential first-round opponents, a spirited Canucks practice, the push to the playoffs, defence pair shuffling, Elias Lindholm's fit going forward, Elias Pettersson's poor game in Colorado and owning it Thursday, Rick Tocchet wanting more wall work from his wingers, free agency this summer, a college signing, wingspan (!), and the GMs meeting reviewing LTIR load-ups.

Frank Corrado stops by to talk about the best matchup for the Canucks in the first round, how Elias Lindholm has to carry on after hearing his name in trade rumours, the approach to re-signing Filip Hronek and how the team can't pay him more than Hughes, the notion of bringing back Tyler Myers. Frank breaks down a "systems" goal the Canucks scored this week and his take on a quiet deadline.

Rob Williams comments on what the city will look like in its return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Tower power, outdoor watch parties, car flags...will they all be back? He talks about a quiet deadline and not getting Phil Kessel content going forward. Plus, Lindholm and who he'd like to face in the first round.

Plus, "To The People We Go" where we hear from listeners on Canucks topics. Presented by Applewood Auto Group.

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An intriguing MVP battle has gotten significantly tighter in recent weeks. A remarkable run earlier in the winter briefly made Auston Matthews a Hart favorite in some circles, but he's come back down to earth since then.

Numerous metrics continue to favor a certain player in Colorado who's led this race for a while despite the Herculean efforts of some other superstars.

Here are our top five candidates now that we're more than three-quarters of the way through this NHL season with just over a month to go until the 82-game slate concludes.

xGF% = Expected goals for percentage

5. David Pastrnak

Pastrnak has been productive since our last edition of these rankings on Feb. 9, notching eight goals and 12 assists in 17 games. But others both on and off this list have been more impactful lately, so he's become a fringe MVP candidate despite having a commendable season.

The Boston Bruins winger sits in the top five in the NHL in goals and points on the campaign, both in all situations and at even strength. He's posted 14 more goals, 21 more assists, and 36 more points than his closest teammates. These disparities represent the strongest argument in his favor.

Pastrnak's underlying numbers have been favorable both for the season as a whole and more recently. He boasts a 56.25 xGF% since our last edition, along with expected goals for percentages around 52% in both timeframes. The fact that he's slid further down these rankings is mostly due to his competition.

4. Auston Matthews

It's time to acknowledge two things: Matthews belongs among the most worthy Hart contenders, but he's not one of the front-runners. The Toronto Maple Leafs sniper is on pace for 70 goals (rounding up from 69.6) this season, and he was the MVP with "only" 60 tallies in 2021-22. Fast-forward two years and Matthews now leads the "Rocket" Richard Trophy race by nine.

The American center has been scoring at a white-hot pace for much of the campaign. From Jan. 16 through Feb. 29, he lit the lamp 20 times in 18 games while adding 10 assists before managing only two goals and two assists in his last six contests. Matthews' two-way game has been stellar, though. He ranks fourth in the NHL in standings points above replacement, wins above replacement, and goals above replacement for the season. So it's not just the goal-scoring rate that's inserted him into the Hart conversation.

Matthews has also put the Leafs on his back in 2023-24, scoring 20 more goals than William Nylander, who sits second on the squad. Matthews has buried 40 of his goals at even strength, which leads the league. However, he's only registered about half as many assists as club leaders Nylander and Mitch Marner, who have 51 apiece. It's hard to justify a Hart case for someone who doesn't even lead his team in points, but he's done enough at both ends of the ice to be a contender.

3. Nikita Kucherov

Kucherov racked up another five points Thursday night, and it was the sixth time this season he's collected at least four in a game. The Tampa Bay Lightning forward is tied for second in the league in assists and occupies that spot outright in the points race. He also sits third in even-strength points in 2023-24.

The Russian has 19 more assists and an impressive 39 more points than any other Lightning skater on the campaign but only has three more goals. To Kucherov's credit, he's tied for sixth in the NHL in SPAR, he's tied for seventh in WAR, and he ranks seventh in GAR.

The Bolts haven't been dominant lately, but Kucherov keeps producing in bunches. If the MVP race was exclusively about underlying numbers, Matthews might have the edge over Kucherov for this spot. He ranks higher than the Lightning catalyst in all the key metrics, particularly since our last edition. But we all know it's about more than that, and the majority of Hart voters will likely (and understandably) prioritize counting stats - points specifically - over analytics.

2. Connor McDavid

McDavid remains a serious candidate due to his elite play, but he's still not doing quite enough to lead the race. The Edmonton Oilers superstar tops all NHL skaters in assists and points since our last edition by wide margins (14 and eight, respectively), though he's scored only four times in those 18 games. McDavid leads all NHL skaters in helpers on the season, ranks third in the Art Ross Trophy race, and sits second in even-strength points despite having played fewer games than his rivals.

In addition to his offensive exploits, McDavid's underlying figures have been almost supernatural. Only teammate Evan Bouchard has a better five-on-five xGF% (62.73) among NHL skaters who've logged at least 1,000 minutes in those situations in 2023-24, and McDavid's SCF% on the season is also north of 60 (61.79). He's up over 60% in both categories since our last edition, too.

McDavid ranks second in SPAR, WAR, and GAR behind only our No. 1 contender. The Oilers captain and three-time MVP won't come anywhere close in 2023-24 to matching the 64 goals and 153 points he piled up last season. But he impacts the game in myriad ways, and that's reflected in statistics across the board.

1. Nathan MacKinnon

MacKinnon has come very close to claiming the Hart several times, but it's becoming more and more clear that this is his year. The Colorado Avalanche dynamo is pacing the league in points - both in all situations and at even strength - but his status as the front-runner goes far beyond that.

The Nova Scotian center isn't just leading the three "above replacement" categories; he's doing so handily. Simply put, he has been by far the best all-around skater in the NHL this season. Need more evidence?

The 28-year-old is doing the heavy lifting for the Avalanche with eight more goals, 17 more assists, and 25 more points than any other Colorado skater. That's pretty hard to do on a team that includes Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar.

MacKinnon is also logging more ice time than any of his counterparts on this list, and he trails only Rantanen among all NHL forwards in ATOI. Voters will be hard-pressed to conjure up a reason not to hand MacKinnon the hardware at this point, and an MVP win would be well deserved for the two-time runner-up and three-time finalist.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)

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Since we figured out how much a goal matters to the likelihood of victory earlier this week, you can turn to the person you're watching the game with, high-five, and yell "12.5%!" in celebration amid the horn and your favorite team's goal song.

Scoring is an obvious way to boost a team's chances of winning, but while we know a big save helps, it's harder to quantify how much - as you exhale after a breakaway stop or a turned-away one-timer.

Last week, we listed the goaltenders who matter within their team - where there's a difference from the theoretical No.1 to the backup - measured by advanced metric GSAx. We made our arbitrary cutoff a differential of 0.2, but what does that mean to a team's likelihood of winning?

Goaltending Valuation

If the primary aim is to score four goals, the other part of the equation should be to prevent the opponent from getting four themselves. Therefore, every goal saved above expected (GSAx) contributes 12.5% toward a team win in the same way a goal scored improves a team's chances by 12.5%. As a primer, let's look at some of the best individual goaltending efforts this week.

Daniil Tarasov was great, but Cayden Primeau was better Tuesday in Montreal. Sam Montembeault did everything he could as the Canadiens forced overtime against the much better Bruins. Karel Vejmelka deserved better, but Wild skaters dominated the Coyotes with a 70% expected goal share and a 12-3 high-danger chance ratio at five-on-five. The other five games where a goaltender stood out led to the Blues beating the Kings and Bruins, the Devils blowing out the Stars, and the Senators snapping a seven-game skid.

That's a change of pace in Ottawa, as they've gotten the worst goaltending this year with a collective -31.22 GSAx in 62 contests (as of March 11). Allowing a half-goal per game more than a replacement-level goalie, Joonas Korpisalo, Anton Forsberg, and Mads Sogaard have hurt the Senators' win probability by an average of 6.25% before the puck drops. Theoretically, at -6.25% implied win probability, they've hurt Ottawa's chances more than all but six skaters help their team's cause, according to market evaluations of NHL stars.

Since the betting market couldn't have predicted it would be that bad, Ottawa bettors have been buying the Sens at a -EV (expected value) price. With tax time around the corner and no relief for the nearly $10 million the Sens have spent on goaltenders against the salary cap, the only write-off coming in Ottawa is this season as a whole.

The cheat sheet

The betting world's dirty little secret is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Thursday was a monster night on the ice. We swept the entire board, cashing all three player props and both sides en route to a 5-0 night.

Let's take a look at a couple plays I like on Friday.

Kings (-270) @ Blackhawks (+220)

Arvid Soderblom might be the worst goaltender in the NHL. He owns an .879 save percentage and ranks dead last in goals saved above expected per game among the 51 netminders with more than 20 played.

He has lost 10 of his past 12 starts, only picking up a pair of wins against a banged-up Coyotes team that sold several pieces ahead of the deadline.

Multiple goals decided every one of his 10 defeats suffered in this stretch. Soderblom has routinely given up crooked numbers, and the Blackhawks have struggled to give him goal support the occasional time he's held up his end of the bargain.

I expect another ugly performance versus the Kings. Los Angeles is fighting tooth and nail to try and catch the Oilers and earn home ice in the opening round.

Jordan Binnington stole the show against the Kings last time out, stopping 40 of 41 shots and stealing two deserved points. L.A. will be champing at the bit to get back on track and knows it has a golden opportunity to do just that against Chicago.

I don't think the Blackhawks' defense - nor Soderblom - will hold up against Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala, and some of the Kings stars who are heating up offensively.

Look for the Kings to cover the puck line in Chicago.

Bet: Kings -1.5 (-105)

Ducks (+310) @ Jets (-390)

Earlier in the week, we backed the Jets, citing how well they respond to seemingly every poor showing. They came through in a big way, putting their foot down against the Capitals in a 3-0 victory.

We'll use the same line of thinking, yet take a slightly different approach, versus Anaheim.

The Ducks are one of the league's worst teams. They struggle to score goals, give up plenty of scoring chances, and can't stay out of the penalty box. They are also in the latter half of a road back-to-back, having played in Minnesota on Thursday night.

This is a spot where the Jets - fresh off an ugly loss where they trailed by multiple goals early and never contended - will be looking to pounce on a vulnerable team. And they should have little problem doing so.

The Ducks have conceded 72 goals in the opening period, third most in the NHL. Conversely, the Jets have allowed only 46 goals in the first period, one of the league's best marks.

They should have no problem tightening the screws on the Ducks' weak offense while getting their share of opportunities at the other end.

The Jets are -390 to win this game, indicating they're a far superior team, and they likely take care of business.

Backing Winnipeg to start strong by winning the first period is a creative way to get involved at a more profitable price.

Bet: Jets first period -0.5 (-105)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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The Philadelphia Flyers have been one of the league's biggest surprises this season, but Scott Laughton believes his team needs to pick up the pace to secure its first playoff berth since 2020.

"At this time of year, you've got to be ready to play," the forward told reporters following the Flyers' 6-2 shakedown at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs. "You can't just go out there and put your stick on the ice and hope for the best. The last three games haven't been good enough. ... Everyone's got to look in the mirror here and figure out what we need to do collectively as a group here to get better."

Thursday's resounding defeat marked Philadelphia's second loss in three games since the March 8 trade deadline. The Flyers lost 7-0 to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday and narrowly beat the basement-dwelling San Jose Sharks 3-2 on Tuesday.

"It's hard at this time of year. It's hard to win hockey games," Laughton said. "Everyone's trying to get (into the playoffs), everyone's trying to solidify their spot. We've gotta realize in this room, we've gotta make a push here."

It's been tough sledding for the Flyers of late. With one eye on the future, general manager Danny Briere dealt pending unrestricted free-agent rearguard Sean Walker to the Colorado Avalanche before the deadline and didn't spend major assets to bolster his squad. The team is also trying to make do with a battered blue line, with Rasmus Ristolainen, Jamie Drysdale, and Nick Seeler all sidelined with injuries.

Philadelphia is still third in the Metropolitan Division at 34-25-8 with an 82.7% chance of making the postseason, per MoneyPuck. However, the New York Islanders are four points behind with two games in hand.

Further complicating things for the Flyers is their upcoming schedule. Their next six opponents are all playoff contenders, including the Maple Leafs in another clash Tuesday.

Associate coach Brad Shaw - who's filling in for the suspended John Tortorella - hopes Thursday's loss can serve as "a good lesson."

"Toronto's got a battle-hardened group there that's been through some hard knocks. ... We've got a lot of guys that still have to learn all that," he said. "They have to recognize how hard you have to play to have any chance at this time of year."

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We had a perfect night on the ice Thursday, going 3-0 with player props and 5-0 overall.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling and end the week on a high note, with three props for a light Friday card.

Adrian Kempe: Over 3.5 shots

Kempe has taken his shot volume up a couple notches of late. He has gone over his total in five of the past six games, averaging 5.33 shots on goal in that span. Kempe isn't just squeaking by; he's blowing by.

I don't expect him to slow down against the Blackhawks. They continue to struggle defensively, ranking 27th in shot suppression and goal prevention over the past 10 games.

The Blackhawks are also playing at a high pace. They rank eighth in total pace (attempts generated plus allowed per 60) over the last 10 games, often finding themselves in high-event affairs where shots fly from everywhere. That kind of environment should greatly benefit a speedy shooter like Kempe.

It's also worth noting Kempe has a track record against the Blackhawks, who've been quite bad over the last couple of years. He has generated 19 shots over his past four meetings, going over his total in each.

That trend should continue Friday.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Seth Jones: Over 2.5 shots

Jones is one of the NHL's hottest shooters. He was a consistent target for the under earlier in the year, routinely landing on one or two shots while attempting only a few.

He's shifted to more of a shooting mentality in recent weeks. Jones has gone over his total in 12 of the past 15 games and is often getting the job done with room to spare.

A massive increase in attempts suggests his soaring hit rate is no coincidence. He has averaged 7.2 shot attempts over this 15-game heater, far above his season average of 5.8, which is also propped up by this stretch.

The Kings are generally not a team I target for shots but I like Jones in this spot. They have played faster of late, ranking 10th in five-on-five pace. They have also struggled to stay out of the penalty box, opening the door for plenty of extra offensive zone time for Jones to generate shots.

Odds: -106 (playable to -125)

Drew Doughty: Over 0.5 points

Doughty has hit another gear offensively of late, recording at least a point in eight of his past 10 games.

This isn't a matchup where I'd expect Doughty to slow down. Both teams rank top 10 in total five-on-five pace over the last 10 contests, creating a good environment for offense.

The Blackhawks also struggle mightily to keep the puck out - especially with Arvid Soderblom between the pipes.

Soderblom owns a putrid .879 save percentage on the year and has conceded nearly four goals per game. He's showing no sign of improvement, having allowed 28 goals over his last seven starts.

Doughty plays massive minutes in all situations for the Kings. If Soderblom is conceding goals by the handful, Doughty has a strong chance of getting involved with at least one.

Odds: -132 (playable to -150)

Bonus round: Mark Scheifele over 0.5 assists (playable to -110). He's expected to return to the lineup tonight, but no lines are available because he missed the last game. The Ducks give up a ton of shots and can't stay out of the box. There is no reason to expect any different in the latter half of a back-to-back. Scheifele should have plenty of the puck in the offensive zone and is surrounded by a handful of excellent shooters - be it at even strength or on the power play - in Kyle Connor, Nik Ehlers, and Tyler Toffoli. Look for him to set one up.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Brayden Point is optimistic the Tampa Bay Lightning's 6-3 victory over the New York Rangers on Thursday will provide a shot in the arm amid the team's scrap for playoff positioning.

"I think it gives us confidence, especially coming back against a team like New York, a very good hockey team," he told reporters postgame. "I think it hopefully gives us some belief down the stretch here that we're not out of games, we can still climb back."

The Bolts headed into the first intermission down 2-0, and Point was on the ice for both goals against. He responded by putting up a hat trick and three assists, including four points in the final frame.

The 28-year-old tied a franchise record for most points in a game. Nikita Kucherov accomplished the feat in 2023, while Doug Crossman pulled it off in 1992.

"It's very cool," Point said. "Just one of those nights where everything kind of seems to work out."

Jack Roslovic broke the 2-2 tie in the Rangers' favor early in the third period, but Point responded less than two minutes later for the first of four unanswered goals for Tampa Bay.

The Lightning currently hold the first wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference with a four-point edge over the New York Islanders and Detroit Red Wings. They have a 93.4% chance of making the playoffs for the seventh straight season, per MoneyPuck.

Despite that, head coach Jon Cooper isn't allowing the Lightning to rest on their laurels.

"We have a group that wants to make the playoffs, and they believe they can," he said. "By no means is one win putting us in the playoffs. We still have a long way to go, but early in the year, I think with this group, and with so many new faces that we had, we probably found a way to lose that game.

"And now, with under 20 (games) left, this team is finding a way to win those games."

Next up for the Bolts is a clash against the Florida Panthers on Saturday.

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