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On Monday, we introduced our made-up March Madness-style tournament for the NHL, "Ice Insanity." Beyond bringing levity at a point in the season that could use some, the idea is to see how NHL teams are faring in categories we use to handicap games.

In Round 1, we advanced the hotter team. Using even-strength expected goals share (xG%) from the All-Star break onwards, we saw that there may be a handful of upsets and a few near-shockers, indicating that some playoff teams need to pick up their play if they don't want to be victimized when the real thing starts in late April.

Coming in hot is cool and all, but who has the staying power to make the Elite Eight? We'll pull back, looking at a full season of even-strength play, knowing we want to back quality squads - not streaky ones - when the going gets tough.

Here's how the bracket breaks for Round 2, using teams' expected goals percentage at even strength (ES xG%) since the start of the season (as of March 20):

We have a handful of bracket-breakers. The Avalanche have the better record, but the Predators' extended hot streak has surprisingly made them the slightly better team this season when it comes to creating expected goals at even strength (171-165). The Rangers survived the fake first round with a low xG% because they were facing the Blackhawks, but that won't work against the Wild, who've been very good since a late November coaching change.

It seems unfair that the Oilers and Stars face each other this early, while Senators-Flames is like that occasional No. 12 versus No. 13 second-round matchup in the NCAA Tournament.

From here, we'll move away from who's driving play and advance teams whose goaltenders are more likely to save their team enough goals to send them to the Final Four.

The cheat sheet

The betting world's dirty little secret is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the process of discovering a good price is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. For injured players, the player's impact on their team's win probability is estimated.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

DATE	GAME	WIN PROB. (%)	PRICE TO BET
Mar. 22	CAR@WSH	57.7/42.3	CAR -131/WSH +161
	PIT@DAL	41.3/58.7	PIT +168/DAL -136
	CBJ@COL	29.3/70.7	CBJ +296/COL -230
	SEA@ARI	45.9/54.1	SEA +139/ARI -113
Mar. 23	BOS@PHI	55.2/44.8	BOS -118/PHI +145
	WPG@NYI	48.6/51.4	WPG +117/NYI +105
	STL@MIN	41.2/58.8	STL +169/MIN -137
	DET@NSH	47.3/52.7	DET +131/NSH -107
	EDM@TOR	43.2/56.8	EDM +155/TOR -126
	OTT@NJD	41.5/58.5	OTT +167/NJD -153
	FLA@NYR	38.5/61.5	FLA +190/NYR -153
	CGY@VAN	46.0/54.0	CGY +138/VAN -113
	CHI@SJS	58.2/41.8	CHI -134/SJS +165
	TB@LAK	46.2/53.8	TB +137/LAK -112
	CBJ@VGK	23.9/76.1	CBJ +402/VGK -301
Mar. 24	WPG@WSH	44.4/55.6	WPG +148/WSH -120
	PIT@COL	41.4/55.6	PIT +168/COL -136
	NJD@NYI	50.6/49.4	NJD +108/NYI +113
	TOR@CAR	43.7/56.3	TOR +152/CAR -124
	EDM@OTT	54.8/45.2	EDM -116/OTT +143
	FLA@PHI	54.7/45.3	FLA -116/PHI +142
	DAL@ARI	61.3/38.7	DAL -152/ARI +188
	TB@ANA	55.6/44.4	TB -120/ANA +147
	BUF@CGY	54.8/45.2	BUF -117/CGY +143
	MTL@SEA	38.5/61.5	MTL +190/SEA -153

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Only four games are scheduled on a light Friday night in the NHL. Luckily, there's still value to be had on the board. Let's take a closer look.

Penguins (+165) @ Stars (-195)

The Penguins have the look of a team that's finished. Normally a pretty structured team under head coach Mike Sullivan, their defensive game has gone completely in the tank as their playoff chances have diminished.

They've allowed 36.28 expected goals over the last 10 games, which is the league's third-highest output. That's predictably led to a ton of goals against; only the Sharks have conceded more in that span.

Playing loose defense isn't ideal heading into a game against the Stars. They have a deep and talented forward group and get scoring from all their lines.

Dallas has found the back of the net 38 times over the last 10 games, and no team has generated more expected goals. The Stars are putting stress on opposing defenses, and the Penguins don't look equipped to handle it.

Depending on your preferred source, Pittsburgh has anywhere from a 3-6% chance of making the playoffs. Its hopes are slim to none, while the powerhouse Stars are in the thick of a heated battle for the Central Division.

Dallas is in much better form, has significantly more talent and depth, is at home, and is incentivized to put its best foot forward.

Look for the Stars to take care of business within 60 minutes.

Bet: Stars in regulation (-125)

Blue Jackets (+300) @ Avalanche (-380)

The Avs are playing as well as anybody. They own a 9-1 record over the past 10 games, and no team has scored more goals in that span.

The returns of Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen, coupled with deadline acquisitions like Casey Mittelstadt and Yakov Trenin, have made Colorado four lines deep. That's scary considering the top of the lineup is loaded with firepower.

Nobody has an answer for slowing this Avalanche attack down, and I don't expect the Blue Jackets to find one Friday night.

They rank 29th in expected goals against at five-on-five and 27th while killing penalties over the past 10 games. That's a recipe for disaster against these Avs.

Colorado should be able to flex its muscles and score another four or five goals Friday. If that's the case, this game will be in a great spot to go over the number.

For all of the Blue Jackets' faults, they're a respectable team offensively. They sit 13th in expected goals and tied for 18th in actual goals over the last 10.

Columbus has also played at the league's third-highest pace in that span, while the Avalanche come in atop the leaderboard.

All the stars are aligning for a high-event affair in Colorado. I expect a 5-2 or 5-3 type of game and see value in playing the over.

Bet: Over 6.5 goals (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Hockey Canada has announced the 18-game schedule for the 2024 Hlinka Gretzky Cup, Aug. 5-10 at Rogers Place in Edmonton.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Thursday was a good night for our player props. We won two of three and fell just one Timo Meier shot shy of a sweep.

We'll aim for a perfect card with three more props for Friday's four-game slate.

Jason Robertson: Over 2.5 shots

Robertson has turned into a very matchup-dependent shooter. He doesn't shoot a lot unless he's facing a team that struggles defensively and/or plays with a lot of pace. The Penguins happen to meet both criteria.

Pittsburgh is bleeding shots, sitting 30th in five-on-five suppression over the last 10 games. It also plays extremely quick, high-event hockey. It ranks second in total events (attempts generated + allowed) per minute in that span.

The Penguins should create an optimal game environment for Robertson.

He's faced two other teams that rank bottom six in shot suppression over his last 10 games. He recorded four shots in all three contests, averaging six attempts per night.

As I noted the last time we successfully backed Robertson, the Stars are in a very tight race with the Avalanche and Jets for the top two seeds in the Central Division. They can't afford to drop points and will continue giving their top players full workloads so long as the game is remotely in question.

With around 18 minutes coming in a pace-up spot, Robertson should be able to get a few pucks on net.

Odds: -130 (playable to -150)

Boone Jenner: Over 2.5 shots

Jenner isn't a regular target, but there are a lot of reasons to like him against the Avalanche. He has a high shooting floor right now, having attempted at least four shots in 10 straight games. That may not sound like a lot, but Jenner lives around the net and hits the target at a much higher rate as a result.

In the 40 games in which Jenner has attempted four or more shots, he's gone over his total 27 times. That's a very strong 68% success rate.

The Avalanche play extremely fast and lead the NHL in total pace at five-on-five over their last 10 games. They also sit 30th in shots allowed to centers over that span. That bodes well for Jenner.

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Mikko Rantanen: Over 3.5 shots

Rantanen has shot the puck a lot more of late. It's no coincidence that his uptick aligns with the return of Valeri Nichushkin.

Rantanen averaged just 2.9 shots on 5.6 attempts without Nichushkin in the lineup.

In comparison, he has 3.7 shots on 7.2 attempts per game with Nichushkin in the lineup. He's also gone over in seven of the last 10 Nichushkin has played.

The volume should continue to be there in spades against the Blue Jackets. They give up a ton of shots on a nightly basis - especially to opposing wingers - and rank third in total pace over the past 10 games.

With the Avalanche sitting No. 1 in said category, this should be a free-flowing game with shots being sprayed from everywhere.

Odds: -118 (playable to -135)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Penguins bench boss Mike Sullivan has plenty of playoff experience under his belt, and he sees a few parallels between a series deficit in the postseason and Pittsburgh's current fight for a wild-card spot.

"I think there are similarities because, to a certain extent, your backs are up against a wall," he said following Thursday's practice. "You know the runway is short and you know the margin for error is small. We've gotta bring our best each and every night to give ourselves a chance.

"That's where we're at right now, that's where we've been for a while. ... Everyone involved is well aware of the circumstance that we're in."

The Penguins are nine points behind the Detroit Red Wings for the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, but Pittsburgh has two games in hand.

It'll take a mighty push from Sullivan's squad to avoid missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season, as it only has a 3.1% chance of squeaking in, per MoneyPuck.

Lars Eller said the Penguins will need to see if they have the chops to play at the level outlined by his head coach.

"You know you probably need (to win) 10 out of 12," the veteran forward said, per The Athletic's Rob Rossi. "It's gonna test all of us. ... Can we keep the urgency up every single game? Do we have the mental fortitude to do that? That's what we're going to see - if we're made for it going down the stretch."

Pittsburgh's first test comes in the form of a pair of road games against the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche - two top contenders from the Central Division. That isn't great news for the Penguins, who are 12-16-5 away from home this season.

After that, Pittsburgh will have 12 games remaining on its schedule. Seven of those contests are against teams who currently hold a playoff spot, while another is against the Washington Capitals, who are pushing the Red Wings in the wild-card race.

Making the postseason won't be easy, but captain Sidney Crosby is hopeful that the fight will bring out "the best" in the Penguins.

"A playoff mentality is a great way to approach it," he said. "You see a lot of teams that are playing desperate, urgent hockey at the end of the season, and they go on runs in the playoffs because that level becomes their norm - there's not a lot of adjustment.

"You never want to be in this position. But sometimes this position brings it out of you."

The Penguins will take on the Stars on Friday at 8 p.m. ET.

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Over the next few weeks, theScore will look ahead to the offseason for select teams that won't be participating in the playoffs. We begin with the Montreal Canadiens.

The Canadiens are set to miss the postseason for the third straight year after coming within three wins of capturing the 2021 Stanley Cup. The Habs aren't exactly on the verge of contending, either. Below, we outline a plan that can help keep the rebuild on track to become a sustainable winner sooner rather than later.

Here are five priorities for executive vice president of hockey operations Jeff Gorton and general manager Kent Hughes entering the 2024 offseason:

Weaponize cap space

The Canadiens project to have about $19 million in cap space this offseason and should use it to continue to stockpile draft picks and prospects.

Contending teams are always looking to clear cap space ahead of free agency, and they're typically willing to add sweeteners to deals to ditch bad contracts. As long as it's a short-term pact, the Habs should absolutely be willing to take on an unwanted player if it helps get them a premium draft pick or prospect.

Think of how well the Sean Monahan move turned out. Montreal netted a first-round pick for taking on his unwanted contract, allowed him to rehabilitate his game, and flipped him for a first-rounder at the 2024 deadline. That was a masterclass by the Habs' front office.

The Canadiens should also be willing to retain salary as a third-party broker if it scores them a draft pick.

Sign Guhle, Slafkovsky to long-term extensions

The Canadiens should attempt to lock up Juraj Slafkovsky and Kaiden Guhle - two pillars of their young core - to long-term deals, even if it means overpaying in the short term. The hope would be the contracts will age well over time and eventually become bargains as the cap continues to rise. It's already trending that way for Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki. As 2025 restricted free agents, Slafkovsky and Guhle are eligible to sign extensions on July 1.

Many were ready to write off Slafkovsky as a bust after his rough rookie season. But the 2022 No. 1 pick has taken notable strides in his development, recording 15 goals and 23 assists in 69 games in his sophomore campaign. The Habs should try to lock up Slafkovsky this summer because the price of an extension will only rise if he progresses even further next season.

Guhle looks like he'll be a legitimate shutdown, top-four defenseman for the next decade or so. At 22, he's already posting strong defensive underlying numbers in a top-pairing role. He brings size and physicality and plays a tenacious game. The price for a long-term extension shouldn't be overly high since Guhle hasn't produced much offense. By locking him up this summer, the contract could turn into a major bargain for Montreal if the offense follows suit. Even if it never does, Guhle's already a valuable player.

Make modest UFA splash

Just because the Canadiens should still have an eye for the future, it doesn't mean they shouldn't poke around the unrestricted free-agent market. While spending big for veterans entering the back nine of their careers would be unwise, Montreal could still target UFAs on the younger side who may still have their best hockey ahead of them.

We identified three such players: Jake DeBrusk, Warren Foegele, and Daniel Sprong. All three are 27 years old and could fill a role as a middle-six winger for the Habs.

DeBrusk has been streaky in his seven-year career but brings 30-goal potential and is at his best when playing with an edge. Foegele possesses less offensive upside, but he's a tireless worker and a responsible two-way player. While Sprong has defensive deficiencies, he continues to produce eye-popping offensive numbers despite a limited bottom-six role.

There are also a handful of RFAs every offseason who don't get tendered and become UFAs at a young age, which could create another pool of players for the Canadiens to target.

Shop veteran defensemen

We identified three UFA forwards partly because the Canadiens have a bit of a logjam on defense. In addition to Guhle, Michael Matheson, David Savard, Jordan Harris, Jayden Struble, and Johnathan Kovacevic are all under contract for next season. And Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron will be RFAs whom the Habs should re-sign easily for cheap. That's already eight players vying for six spots before factoring in the emergence of top prospects Lane Hutson and David Reinbacher, who could be ready for the NHL next year.

Montreal reportedly shopped Savard at the deadline, but no deal came to fruition. The 33-year-old isn't signed beyond next season, so the club would ideally trade him in the offseason. The Habs could also get a haul if they shopped Matheson, a 30-year-old amid a career year and signed through 2025-26 at a $4.87-million cap hit. Still, the Canadiens should keep one of them around as a veteran mentor to start the next campaign.

The Habs should also consider trading Kovacevic, a 2025 UFA. A 6-foot-5, right-handed defenseman who's only 26 with a sub-league minimum cap hit of $766,667 could have a surprising amount of trade value, even if he's not overly experienced.

But one way or another, the Canadiens should move out a defenseman this offseason, and potentially another one at the 2025 deadline, to help further stack their draft pick and/or prospect cupboard.

Don't get temped into buyouts

In an ideal world, the Canadiens could move on from Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson without any long-term ramifications. Both players are on the books for three more years and aren't living up to their lofty cap hits. Gallagher ($6.5M AAV) has just 11 goals and nine assists in 64 games this season. Anderson ($5.5M) has managed eight goals and 10 assists in 65 contests.

Buying out Gallagher and Anderson is tempting. But while it would create some immediate cap space and clear two roster spots, it would zap the Habs' financial flexibility when they project to be competitive again - a time when every dollar will count.

Here's what Gallagher's buyout would look like:

Season	Initial cap hit	Buyout cap hit
2024-25	$6.5M	-$333K
2025-26	$6.5M	$2.17M
2026-27	$6.5M	$4.67M
2027-28	$0	$2.17M
2028-29	$0	$2.17M
2029-30	$0	$2.17M

And here's what Anderson's would look like:

Season	Initial cap hit	Buyout cap hit
2024-25	$5.5M	$222K
2025-26	$5.5M	$2.2M
2026-27	$5.5M	$3.72M
2027-28	$0	$1.72M
2028-29	$0	$1.72M
2029-30	$0	$1.72M

If all goes well, the Canadiens should be a no-doubt playoff team and perhaps a Stanley Cup contender by 2027-28. They'll need every penny of their cap space by then, so being patient and waiting for Gallagher's and Anderson's contracts to expire is the most logical move - even if it's painful in the short term.

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