Dan and Sat are joined by Don Taylor of Donnie and Dhali to talk about the evolution of Noah Juulsen in Vancouver and if the criticism of Elias Pettersson is warranted. Also, hear from The Athletic's Sean Gentille on headlines from around the NHL, including the Morgan Rielly debate and much more.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Dan and Sat discuss the weekend of action for the Canucks and some of the main takeaways from the two games, including the mixing of lines in the top-6.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
During the extended period when the Devils were without Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton, oddsmakers downgraded New Jersey 7%-10% in their overall power rating. Coming into the campaign, with a regular-season point total of 107 in betting markets, the Devils' power rating was second in the league, estimating a fully healthy roster as 17% above a league-average team.
The market adjusted upon Hughes's return against the Flames, giving the Devils back 4% of their implied win probability, making them -135 at home in the game. Getting Hughes back may have helped their implied win probability, but nothing guarantees victory, as they lost 5-3 to Calgary, then lost 1-0 in overtime in Carolina as an underdog Saturday.
Hughes is the best player to recently return to his team after missing a large segment of the season. Nathan MacKinnon is questionable Tuesday with a facial injury suffered Saturday. It would be his first game missed this season. He sat out 18 games last season, and the market adjusted, lowering the Avalanche's likelihood of winning between 5% and 10%.
Morgan Rielly is headed for an in-person meeting after an incident in Ottawa on Saturday. That implies a significant suspension is coming, so we'll get a decent sample size of the market's reaction to the Maple Leafs' chances without their best defenseman among an already thin group.
The cheat sheet
The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.
Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.
You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:
True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.
DATE
GAME
WIN PROB. (%)
PRICE TO BET
Feb. 12
SEA@NJD
46.0/54.0
SEA +138/NJD -113
CGY@NYR
44.8/55.2
CGY +145/NYR -118
ARI@PHI
44.9/55.1
ARI +144/PHI -118
MIN@VGK
51.6/48.4
MIN +104/VGK +118
Feb. 13
CBJ@OTT
39.8/60.2
CBJ +179/OTT -145
TB@BOS
44.9/55.1
TB +144/BOS -118
COL@WSH
53.3/46.7
COL -110/WSH +134
LAK@BUF
51.6/48.4
LAK +104/BUF +118
ANA@MTL
46.0/54.0
ANA +138/MTL -113
STL@TOR
43.1/56.9
STL +156/TOR -127
SEA@NYI
45.4/54.6
SEA +142/NYI -116
NJD@NSH
42.5/57.5
NJD +160/NSH -130
CAR@DAL
47.3/52.7
CAR +131/DAL -107
VAN@CHI
65.6/34.4
VAN -182/CHI +229
DET@EDM
33.9/66.1
DET +235/EDM -187
Feb. 14
FLA@PIT
49.7/50.3
FLA +112/PIT +109
SJS@WPG
35.8/64.2
SJS +214/WPG -172
MIN@ARI
51.1/48.9
MIN +106/ARI +115
Feb. 15
COL@TB
50.7/49.3
COL +108/TB +114
PHI@TOR
45.4/54.6
PHI +141/TOR -115
MTL@NYR
37.2/62.8
MTL +201/NYR -162
LAK@NJD
48.1/51.9
LAK +119/NJD +102
SEA@BOS
45.6/54.4
SEA +140/BOS -114
ANA@OTT
39.4/60.6
ANA +182/OTT -147
FLA@BUF
47.7/52.3
FLA +121/BUF +101
EDM@STL
58.9/41.1
EDM -138/STL +170
DAL@NSH
58.9/41.1
DAL +102/NSH +120
PIT@CHI
64.5/35.5
PIT -174/CHI +218
SJS@CGY
30.9/69.1
SJS +272/CGY -214
DET@VAN
42.8/57.2
DET +158/VAN -128
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
Weekend whirl! After an incredible few days in sport, there’s lots to get to for Matt and Blake. They break down both Canucks games, as they take three out of four points on the road, plus the Super Bowl and Nick Taylor’s PGA win in Arizona.
Rink Wide: Vancouver host Jeff Paterson stops by with the details of the Canucks 2 games, including the separation of Lindholm and EP40, the emergence of Höglander as a top 6 winger, and the blueline battles with Soucy injured and Zadorov suspended. Will Jett Woo make his Canucks debut?
Lots of NFL talk after that as the guys debate where Mahomes and Kelce will land in the history books, how many more titles this dynasty could win, and did Usher make the grade at half-time? Presented by Applewood Auto Group.
Ottawa Senators winger Vladimir Tarasenko isn't ruling anything out when it comes to his future, with the March 8 trade deadline quickly approaching.
"When the talks start, of course we're gonna look at all options," he said Monday, according to Sportsnet. "You guys (the media) like to find something, but there is nothing. Nothing I can give you now. I'm just focused on the game tomorrow, we had a good game last game. It's exciting ... just enjoy the moment."
Tarasenko signed a one-year, $5-million deal with the Senators as an unrestricted free agent in July. He's been a solid fit in Canada's capital city, ranking fourth on the team with 14 goals and fifth with 34 points in 46 games.
With Ottawa facing a steep climb to enter the playoff picture, Tarasenko has heard his name crop up in trade rumors, but he's doing his best to tune out the outside noise.
"I think the biggest part is don't read the experts online, you know?" he said. "I don't go online. I don't really read hockey news. There's many people, there's many opinions. I know a lot of guys like to read it, and they just take it very close to themselves, but I think you have to be focused on yourself mostly and do whatever you can do in your situation, and the rest will take care of itself."
Thanks to his no-trade clause, Tarasenko can decide whether he moves or not, but he made it clear he likes playing in Ottawa.
"A good group of guys," he said. "I enjoy the guys a lot. They're very fun. I think it's a very tight group. I always thought it's not about the place, it's more about the people surrounding you. ... A lot of people willing to help, a lot of people offer help, guys help a lot. Yeah, I'm enjoying it."
The 32-year-old was traded from the St. Louis Blues to the New York Rangers last February. Tarasenko has switched agents twice in the last seven months, according to The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun.
Next season's edition of the Battle of Ontario is going to be spicy.
The hockey world has been rife with debate surrounding Ottawa Senators rookie Ridly Greig's empty-net slap shot and Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly's controversial response. Ryan Reaves gave his two cents on the hot-button topic Monday, throwing his support behind his teammate.
"If you rewind to when I came into the league, (Greig is) probably still laying on the ice," the Leafs enforcer said, per The Athletic's Chris Johnston. "I thought (Rielly's response) was appropriate. I don't see how a kid that young thinks it's appropriate to do something like that."
"Make hockey violent again," he added, per Sportsnet. "Get that tattooed on me."
The incident occurred in the dying seconds of the Maple Leafs' 5-3 loss to the Senators on Saturday. Right after pummelling the puck to ice Ottawa's victory, Greig took a cross-check to the head courtesy of an irate Rielly.
"I mean, guy takes a clapper into our net, you gonna go play patty cake with him?" Reaves said. "Like, no, there's got to be a message sent, and I don't think a push is a message, to be honest with you."
Rielly is scheduled to have an in-person hearing for his actions, meaning he could be facing a suspension greater than five games. The meeting is set for Tuesday afternoon.
Greig participated in Monday's practice and declined to speak to the media about the incident.
Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe said he was somewhat surprised that Rielly was summoned for an in-person hearing.
"I think there's a history of events that happen in Toronto and with the Leafs that get more attention and more hype that tend to lead to something such as this," he said, per Johnston.
Reaves said he thought Rielly would get a fine or one-game ban at most.
"The kid got up after he saw nobody was on top of him anymore, completely fine, and I think that's got to be taken into account, too," he said.
"These young kids these days, they're playing a different brand of hockey than I'm used to," he added. "The code's changed a little bit, the game's changed a lot. It's unfortunate that a young kid like that can get away with something like that, and one of our best players is going to get suspended for it."
Rielly ranks fourth on Toronto with 43 points (seven goals, 36 assists) in 50 games while averaging a team-leading 24:21 minutes of ice time per contest. He's never been suspended in his 11-year career.
Reaves, meanwhile, is a familiar face to the NHL Department of Player Safety.
The 37-year-old has been suspended three times: He got three games for kneeing in 2016, one game for a check to the head during the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and two games for roughing and unsportsmanlike conduct in the 2021 postseason.
The Leafs currently occupy the first wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference with a 26-16-8 record.
San Jose Sharks center Tomas Hertl will miss a minimum of "several weeks" after having a procedure to clean out loose cartilage in his left knee, the team announced Monday.
"I have been experiencing soreness in my left knee on and off this season," Hertl said in a statement. "After speaking with doctors and our medical staff earlier this year, it was clear that the injury was not going to get any worse and I could continue to play through it, including attending the NHL All-Star weekend in Toronto.
"After returning from Toronto and having additional conversations with my family and our team medical staff over the last week, I made the decision to have this procedure done now so that I can return to 100% as soon as possible."
Hertl is one of the lone offensive threats for the rebuilding Sharks, as he paces the team with 15 goals and 34 points in 48 games this season.
The 30-year-old is in the second season of an eight-year, $65.1-million contract with a full no-movement clause.
Sharks general manager Mike Grier said in September that if Hertl approached him about a trade then it's something he'd explore.
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We have a small but fruitful four-game slate ahead of us to begin the week. Let's waste no time getting to some standout props.
Owen Tippett: Over 3.5 shots
Tippett has mouthwatering shot rates, ranking top five in both attempts and shots on goal per 60 minutes. He does his best work on home ice, posting a higher shot rate in Philadelphia than away from home.
Although Tippett is no longer on a line with Cam Atkinson, with whom he owns a sky-high shot rate, he's an efficient shooter no matter who he plays with. It's also worth noting the Flyers may opt to dress seven defensemen in this game, which would likely lead to some extra usage for Tippett.
The struggling Coyotes rank bottom-10 in five-on-five shot suppression over the last 10 games on the road. They also take a lot of penalties and bleed shots when shorthanded, putting Tippett in a prime spot for a big shooting performance.
Odds: -130 (playable to -140)
Jack Hughes: Over 0.5 goals
Hughes has come out firing since returning to the Devils lineup. He's piled up nine scoring chances and 11 shots on 19 attempts over just two games, which is strong volume.
Tonight's game is back in New Jersey, meaning Lindy Ruff can control the matchups and get Hughes out against more favorable competition. That's helped boost his numbers all season long, as he's averaged 4.6 shots on goal in New Jersey compared to 4.1 shots on the road.
Hughes is also a prime regression candidate. He hasn't scored in five consecutive games and has potted only one goal over the past 11. Before this rough patch, the longest Hughes had gone without a goal was three games. Encouragingly, the goals haven't dried up due to a lack of opportunity.
Hughes has recorded 33 scoring chances, 39 shots on goal, and 75 shot attempts over his last 11 games. That's translated to just one goal, thanks to a shooting percentage of 2.56%.
Hughes scored on 15.8% of his shots in 2021-22 and 12.8% last season. He's an above-average finisher. We can reasonably assume he'll heat up sooner rather than later.
The Kraken aren't as stingy as a season ago, and the Devils are desperate for points. I expect Hughes will get all the ice he can handle in this game and, with any luck, find the back of the net along the way.
Odds: +130 (playable to +120)
Mark Stone: Over 0.5 assists
Minnesota can't keep the puck out of the net right now. The Wild have conceded 3.15 five-on-five goals per 60 over the last 10 games, which is more than all but the Canadiens.
They're giving up shots at a high clip, and the goaltending simply hasn't been up to par.
Meanwhile, only two teams have spent more time shorthanded over the last 10 games. Bleeding shots (and goals) at five-on-five and taking penalties at a high clip isn't a great recipe for slowing down opposing offenses.
Stone figures to be a prime beneficiary. He's skating on the top line at even strength and is also a prominent figure on the No. 1 power-play unit.
He also shoulders more of the offensive workload without Jack Eichel. Stone's shot rates are higher, and he's registered eight points over five home games sans Eichel, in four of which he picked up an assist.
With Minnesota laboring defensively and Stone cooking at home (he has at least one assist in nine of the last 10 in Vegas), a plus-money price feels generous.
Odds: +115 (playable to -125)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.
This is the ninth in-season edition of theScore's NHL Power Rankings for the 2023-24 campaign. Check back for updated rankings every other Monday.
With Valentine's Day just around the corner, we pick one thing to love about each team.
1. Boston Bruins (32-11-9)
Previous rank: 3
Resilience. Despite losing franchise icons Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to retirement - and a whole slew of other players to free agency/trades - Boston remains in first place in the Eastern Conference. It's hard not to appreciate the "Bruins way" - where success seems guaranteed even when the leadership torch is passed down to the next generation of players.
2. Vancouver Canucks (35-12-6)
Previous rank: 2
Rick Tocchet. The Canucks have looked like a completely different team during the head coach's first full season at the helm. Virtually every player has stepped up, but Tocchet has been the steady hand guiding Vancouver to the top of the standings.
3. Edmonton Oilers (30-17-1)
Previous rank: 1
Stuart Skinner. There's a lot to love about the Oilers now that things are going well for them, but we're going to spotlight the man between the pipes. His 21 wins since the coaching change in November are tied for the most in the league over that span.
4. Florida Panthers (33-15-4)
Previous rank: 4
Sam Reinhart's goal binge. We love to see a previously unheralded star pop off during a contract year. Reinhart's on a 61-goal pace and is due to cash in soon.
5. New York Rangers (33-16-3)
Previous rank: 8
Jonathan Quick's revival. If the NHL had a Comeback Player of the Year award (it should), Quick would likely be the leading candidate. After multiple down seasons, he looks like the goalie who led the Los Angeles Kings to two Stanley Cups again. At 38 and on an $850,000 contract, this was unexpected but needed given Igor Shesterkin's struggles.
6. Dallas Stars (32-14-6)
Previous rank: 7
Thomas Harley. The 22-year-old rearguard is having quite the breakthrough season. He's tied for the league lead with three overtime winners - two of which came in back-to-back games - and he's also earned some playing time on the top pair next to Miro Heiskanen.
7. Carolina Hurricanes (30-16-5)
Previous rank: 9
Those Whalers throwbacks. Some people don't like the Hurricanes dressing up as the team they used to be, but the threads they wore over the weekend were gorgeous.
8. Vegas Golden Knights (31-15-6)
Previous rank: 10
Adin Hill. He hasn't lost a game since returning from injury and makes Vegas a different team when he's between the pipes. Is Hill now the best option for Canada's international squads?
9. Winnipeg Jets (31-14-5)
Previous rank: 5
Goaltending. In the offseason, Laurent Brossoit said he wanted to form the league's strongest tandem with Connor Hellebuyck. Four months into the campaign, they're certainly up there (albeit with Hellebuyck shouldering the brunt of the work). Winnipeg boasts the NHL's best save percentage (.941) at five-on-five.
10. Colorado Avalanche (32-17-4)
Previous rank: 6
The three Ms. Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen form arguably the NHL's best trio. MacKinnon and Makar in particular are two of the most electric players to watch in the entire league, making the Avs must-see TV.
11. Philadelphia Flyers (28-19-6)
Previous rank: 13
The underdog story. Nobody gave the Flyers much of a chance entering the season, but John Tortorella has his team sitting third in the Metro while playing an up-tempo, tenacious game that's entertaining to watch and embodies his personality, as well as the city's.
12. Tampa Bay Lightning (28-20-5)
Previous rank: 12
Nikita Kucherov's in-season effort. Much can be said about the Lightning star irritating droves of fans by mailing in his performance at the Skills Competition, but when the hockey really counts, Kucherov is appointment viewing.
13. Detroit Red Wings (27-18-6)
Previous rank: 14
Looking playoff-ready. Detroit is firmly in the Eastern Conference race with 31 games to go, which is a welcome sight for one of the league's best markets after seven consecutive seasons near the bottom of the standings.
14. Toronto Maple Leafs (26-16-8)
Previous rank: 11
Auston Matthews' health. Yep, the two-time Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy winner's hand looks OK to us. Matthews has already surpassed his goal total from last season to lead the league with a whopping 42 tallies in 49 games. His pursuit of 70 is alive and well.
15. St. Louis Blues (28-21-1)
Previous rank: 17
Robert Thomas' bounce back. The Blues forward caught a lot of flak during a down 2022-23 season but has responded with his first career All-Star nomination. He's also the only St. Louis player averaging at least one point per game.
16. Los Angeles Kings (24-15-10)
Previous rank: 16
Jim Hiller. OK, it's the smallest sample size imaginable, but the Kings shut out the extremely dangerous Oilers during his debut behind the bench on Saturday. Boy, was Los Angeles in sore need of a win exactly like that.
17. New Jersey Devils (25-21-4)
Previous rank: 15
Young defensemen. Luke Hughes (20) and Simon Nemec (19) are playing major minutes as NHL rookies and thriving. The Devils haven't quite met expectations this season, but their future is in excellent hands.
18. Calgary Flames (25-22-5)
Previous rank: 25
MacKenzie Weegar. Thanks to his first career hat trick Saturday, Weegar now leads all defensemen with 15 goals - including 14 at even strength - in 52 contests. You absolutely love to see it from the 2013 seventh-rounder.
19. New York Islanders (22-18-12)
Previous rank: 20
Patrick Roy. The NHL is a better league with Roy in it. While the Islanders haven't necessarily taken off since making the coaching change, the Hall of Fame goaltender's fiery competitiveness behind the bench instantly makes the club that much more likeable.
20. Pittsburgh Penguins (23-19-7)
Previous rank: 19
Sidney Crosby. Duh. Was there really another option here? The 36-year-old is on pace for around 47 goals and 87 (ha) points this season. He's a freak of nature. Next.
21. Nashville Predators (27-23-2)
Previous rank: 21
Hope for middle-aged people. Ryan O'Reilly and Gustav Nyquist are enjoying major bounce-back seasons - and some of the best of their careers - at ages 33 and 34, respectively. It's a great message for the common person: If you work hard and put yourself in the right environment, it's never too late to find success.
22. Seattle Kraken (21-20-10)
Previous rank: 18
Joey Daccord. The Kraken goaltender became an easy player to root for after picking up his first NHL win with the Senators in 2021 when he gave a heartfelt postgame interview. It's great to see him thrive with a season that will warrant some down-ballot Vezina Trophy consideration.
23. Washington Capitals (23-20-8)
Previous rank: 23
Alex Ovechkin. After a slow start to the campaign, the Russian Machine is starting to gain some steam. With goals in five straight games, Ovi's pursuit of Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record is still alive and well.
24. Ottawa Senators (21-25-2)
Previous rank: 26
Empty-net slap shots. Ridly Greig stirred the pot in a major way with his howitzer into a yawning cage against the Maple Leafs, and while opinions on Morgan Rielly's reaction may vary, almost all hockey fans can agree that rivalries make the sport better.
25. Arizona Coyotes (23-23-4)
Previous rank: 24
The future. It's been another tough season in the desert. The team has come down to earth after a hot start, and there's once again no shortage of off-ice distractions. But the future remains bright. There's lots of young talent on the team - and more coming through the system. Hopefully, there'll be some clarity on the team's home soon (Salt Lake City, perhaps?).
26. Minnesota Wild (23-23-5)
Previous rank: 28
Marc-Andre Fleury. Let's be real - everybody loves the Flower. In what could very well be his last NHL season, fans should continue to appreciate Fleury while he's still active.
27. Buffalo Sabres (22-25-4)
Previous rank: 22
Unexpected trade deadline influence. Sabres fans may dislike this, but objectively, we love that Buffalo could be a sneaky team to watch this trade season. Playoffs are a write-off by now - a big disappointment for a group taking its time to advance - and the Sabres have a glut of players on expiring contracts to potentially sell.
28. Montreal Canadiens (21-23-8)
Previous rank: 27
Juraj Slafkovsky's growing confidence. The 2022 first overall pick is starting to put things together in the big leagues. He's already set new career highs in every offensive category, while six of his 10 goals and 11 of his 24 points this season have come in 2024.
29. Columbus Blue Jackets (16-25-10)
Previous rank: 29
Adam Fantilli. The Blue Jackets don't have much to be chipper about in what's been another disappointing season, but the 2023 No. 3 pick has the makings of a future superstar that the organization has so desperately needed since Rick Nash's departure.
30. Anaheim Ducks (18-31-2)
Previous rank: 30
Frank Vatrano. Anaheim's All-Star simply loves putting the puck in the net. He's on pace for 35 tallies this season on a Ducks team that ranks 29th in goals per game.
31. San Jose Sharks (14-32-5)
Previous rank: 31
The uniforms. There's not a lot to love about the Sharks these days. The losses are piling up, but at least they look good doing it. With the addition of a new black alternate jersey, San Jose's uniform trio is elite. Now, if only they'd stop wearing their teal helmets with their white threads.
32. Chicago Blackhawks (14-35-3)
Previous rank: 32
Their patience with Connor Bedard's recovery. Everyone wants to see the 2023 first overall pick back in action - and Bedard is clearly itching to return himself - but the Blackhawks aren't rushing things. That's the right thing to do for the 18-year-old as he works his way back from jaw surgery.