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We have a small four-game slate in front of us to begin the week. Let's look at a few props that stand out as we hope to start things off on a high note.
John Carlson: Under 2.5 shots
Carlson has gone over his total just 36% of the time this season and in only four of his last 15 games (27%).
He's averaged only 5.2 shot attempts per game on the year. Although that volume sounds fine on the surface, it's not great for defensemen.
They routinely have to shoot through multiple layers of defenders and from far greater distances, which results in a much higher percentage of their shots being blocked or missing the net relative to forwards.
This has led to very low outputs when Carlson doesn't have a ceiling game in terms of attempts. Carlson has generated just 1.6 shots on goal over the 35 games he's attempted five shots or fewer this season.
There's plenty of reason to believe Carlson is heading for such a game versus the Senators. They've been one of the best shot-suppression teams in the league over the last month. Ottawa has also done a terrific job staying out of the penalty box, spending just 2:42 shorthanded per game in February.
The Sens aren't giving up many shots, nor are they taking many penalties and allowing opposing stars to be put in easy offensive situations.
This is a matchup I expect Carlson to struggle in.
Odds: -114 (playable to -135)
Miro Heiskanen: Over 2.5 shots
Heiskanen needs two things to have success shooting the puck: home ice and a weak opposing defense. Both boxes are checked tonight as the Stars host the Islanders.
We'll start with home ice. Heiskanen has averaged 6.4 shot attempts per game in Dallas compared to just 4.8 on the road. Given the difficulty of getting shots through consistently, volume is especially important for defenders. Heiskanen generates it at home.
He also has a mouthwatering matchup against the Islanders. Although they have tightened the screws a little bit under new head coach Patrick Roy, they're still a very targetable team.
They rank 31st in shots against per game to defensemen this season, conceding more than all but the Sharks. They also rank inside the bottom 10 over the past 10 games.
Likely to log over 24 minutes in a juicy matchup, Heiskanen is primed for an active night shooting the puck.
Odds: -102 (playable to -120)
Evander Kane: Over 2.5 shots
Kane is one of the more consistent shooters in the NHL. He's averaged 3.1 shots on goal and gone over his total in 63% of his appearances this season.
His numbers spike further in Edmonton, where Kane averages 3.3 shots per night and has posted a remarkably strong 67% success rate.
What I love about Kane is matchups don't seem to matter to him in the slightest. Whether he's facing top-10 or bottom-10 defenses in terms of suppressing shots, the volume and success rates are nearly identical.
That's very noteworthy heading into a game versus the Kings. They play a slower brand of hockey and have been excellent at limiting shots for years. That hasn't seemed to impact Kane. Playoffs included, he's recorded three or more shots in 16 of 19 games versus Los Angeles over the past couple of seasons.
Odds: -145 (playable to -160)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.
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