Welcome to the fifth edition of theScore's 2023-24 Norris Trophy Rankings and the fourth in-season version. New rankings are published once a month throughout the campaign.
These rankings focus on analytics and the all-around ability of defensemen rather than only points or reputation.
xGF% = five-on-five expected goals for percentage
5. Evan Bouchard, Oilers
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 11 | 32 | 22:50 | 62.89 |
Bouchard isn't logging the minutes of a typical Norris Trophy winner. No player has won the award averaging under 24 minutes per game since P.K. Subban (23:15) with the Montreal Canadiens in 2013. No player has won averaging under 23 minutes per game since ATOI was first recorded in 1997-98.
So while Bouchard doesn't meet all the criteria to create a legitimate case for the top spot, his excellence deserves to be recognized with some down-ballot love.
Bouchard's underlying numbers are off the charts. He ranks first among NHL defensemen in xGF%, first in expected goals for per 60 minutes, and 27th in expected goals against per 60 minutes. Many will credit that to him often sharing the ice with Connor McDavid in Edmonton, but Bouchard has proven capable of elevating those around him in his own right.
Bouchard has taken off since Edmonton swapped Tyson Barrie for Mattias Ekholm last year. In that span - including playoffs - he's racked up 79 points in 78 games.
4. Adam Fox, Rangers
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 8 | 29 | 23:05 | 52.34 |
Fox hasn't appeared on this list since the preseason. He got injured before the first in-season edition, dealing with an ailment that caused him to miss 10 games. That missed action will undoubtedly hurt his case, considering no defenseman has won the Norris Trophy while missing more than six of his team's games since Ray Bourque played 72 of the Boston Bruins' 84 games in 1993-94.
Like Bouchard, also working against Fox is his low average time on ice. Fox averaged 24:42 during his Norris-winning campaign in 2020-21.
But even though Fox isn't a serious contender for No. 1, the way he's played of late makes him more than worthy of the fourth spot. Since the last edition of these rankings on Jan. 4, Fox has produced 13 points in 15 games with an xGF% of 51%.
3. Noah Dobson, Islanders
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 6 | 46 | 25:55 | 49.75 |
Dobson is a true workhorse. He ranks second in the league in average time on ice and hasn't missed a game all season. It's despicable that he wasn't named an NHL All-Star.
His 6-foot-4 frame and smooth skating stride make him a stellar defender, but his true calling comes on the offensive side of the puck, as he's tied for the Islanders' lead in points this season. His vision is outstanding, ranking tied for sixth among all NHL skaters in assists.
Dobson's underlying metrics had been one of the lone knocks on his game, but those are starting to come around, as he's generated an xGF% of 51.78 since the last edition of these rankings. Dobson is starting to distance himself from those behind him on this list, but the top two are still in a separate tier.
2. Cale Makar, Avalanche
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 13 | 47 | 25:00 | 54.31 |
Makar held the top spot in the last two editions of these rankings, largely due to his superior underlying metrics. But those have evened out over the last month, as Makar's xGF% since the last rankings is just 51.5.
Makar is coming off a mighty productive month, recording 16 points in his last 13 games. He's still firmly within striking distance of winning his second Norris in three years. Makar's play would be strong enough to win the Norris in most years, so he might just need No. 1 on our list to come down to earth a bit.
1. Quinn Hughes, Canucks
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 12 | 52 | 24:29 | 53.27 |
Hughes was a relatively easy choice for No. 1 after putting together a month in which he tallied 18 points in 13 games with a sparkling 60.53 xGF%. The Canucks have outscored their opponents 18-10 in that span with Hughes on the ice at five-on-five. He's truly been dominating play of late.
The overall body of work speaks for itself, too. Hughes leads all NHL defensemen in assists (and he's two off the NHL lead among all skaters), points, even-strength points, goals above replacement, and expected goals above replacement.
While he was a relative long shot to begin the season, Hughes has always possessed the talent to win a Norris, and it's starting to feel more and more like this is his year.
(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)
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