Monthly Archives: January 2024
NHL Morning Coffee Headlines – January 24, 2024
Diving Into Trade Options and an Elias Pettersson Update
Dan and Sat are joined by Canucks Insider, Irfaan Gaffar, to discuss some of the available options on the trade market, how Canucks management is approaching it, and more. Also, hear from Matthew DeFranks of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch on how the Blues are faring ahead of their matchup in Vancouver tomorrow. Plus, Russell Morgan of Hockey Royalty stops by to talk Kings.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The Thin Trade Market and Kuzmenko’s Resurgence
Dan and Sat discuss Andrei Kuzmenko's potential resurgence and what else they need to see from him. Also, they continue to get into the pieces on the trade market and how thin of a year it is.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
January 23 2024 – Jeff Paterson
Matt and Blake talk about a (yawn) 2-0 victory over the Chicago Blackhawks, a positive step forward for Andrei Kuzmenko and his linemates, the threat of goal-scorer Quinn Hughes, Rick Tocchet's comments about the Pius Suter line, the abomination that is the Blackhawks team, the availability of Sean Monahan and a breakdown of his game, Jake Guentzel getting closer to being available with another Penguins loss, and a compare and contrast with the deadline rentals.
Rink Wide: Vancouver host Jeff Paterson joins and tells us it's now ok to complain about boring wins. Jeff talks about Kuzmenko and his line stepping up, a quiet night for the Lotto Line, Nils Höglander deserving PP time, the Carson Soucy injury, the need for another top-6 piece, the week ahead against St. Louis and Columbus, and a proposed deal for Monahan.
Plus, we go To The People and hear from listeners on Canucks topics of the last week. Presented by Applewood Auto Group.
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Chychrun slams ‘ridiculous’ trade rumors
Ottawa Senators defenseman Jakob Chychrun was blunt when addressing his name coming up in recent trade rumors.
"I think it's ridiculous, if I'm being honest," Chychrun told The Athletic's Ian Mendes on Tuesday. "I went through it in Arizona and that was a different situation. But to see it now is a bit ridiculous. And I don't think it's based off anything."
Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch reported last Thursday that Senators general manager Steve Staios has listened to teams interested in the 25-year-old blue-liner.
"It's people shooting blind darts at a board and hoping they hit," Chychrun added. "People have a right to say what they want, but to act like they have their sources is a joke. And people like to get their clicks on social media. If they have to use my name to do it, go ahead. But I'm not going to let it affect me."
Chychrun was traded to the Senators last March after being the subject of trade rumors for a prolonged period with the Arizona Coyotes. Ottawa sent a first-round pick and two second-round picks to the Coyotes in the deal.
Despite his feelings about the recent speculation, Chychrun admitted the NHL is "a crazy business and anything can happen."
In 54 total games with the Senators, Chychrun has accumulated nine goals and 32 points. He's signed through the 2024-25 season at a $4.6-million cap hit and is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2025, but he said he isn't looking for a change of scenery.
"I feel at home here," Chychrun said. "I bought a house and it's five minutes from my sister and 10 minutes from my grandpa. ... I've just been cherishing my time here because not everybody gets that opportunity to play in front of family and loved ones."
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Flyers grant Hart indefinite leave of absence
The Philadelphia Flyers granted goaltender Carter Hart an indefinite leave of absence for personal reasons, the team announced Tuesday.
The club won't comment further on the matter at this time.
Hart owns a 12-9-3 record this season to go along with a .906 save percentage and 2.80 goals against average.
The Flyers sit second in the Metropolitan Division after going 25-16-6 through the first half of the campaign.
Philadelphia selected Hart in the second round of the 2016 NHL Draft. He owns a career .906 save percentage and 2.94 goals against average across 227 contests.
Hart's 96 wins since his debut in the 2018-19 campaign are the 18th most among all goalies over that span.
He last played Saturday against the Colorado Avalanche. He was pulled after surrendering five goals on 15 shots en route to a 7-4 defeat.
The 25-year-old can become a restricted free agent with arbitration rights at the end of this season. Hart is currently playing out the final campaign of a three-year pact with a $3.979-million cap hit.
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NHL weekly betting guide: Trust numbers to take pressure off underdog bets
When betting on hockey and its randomness, rationalizing can result in placing a well-thought-out bet that loses since most games are decided by one goal in a league where 21.4% of the games go to overtime. But putting rationale on paper can also result in talking yourself out of an underdog that wins because it's tough to make a case for the worse team.
For example, we backed the Sharks to beat the Kings on Monday. But think about what went into pulling the trigger on San Jose. Los Angeles had to come into that game with a 2-10 record in its last 12 contests. We then needed an underdog payout of +300 to take the risk, even though the team had just won a game on Saturday. We'd never predict that result outright, but a "Yes/No" prediction is a binary result, worth "1" or "0," whereas a Sharks' win won "3" after risking "1".
There are other times where making a case on a big underdog isn't easy. Recent winning pups like the Blackhawks (+205) over the Islanders, the Canadiens (+185) over the Avalanche, and the Ducks (+312) over the Panthers, came out of nowhere. The only reason to have played on the underdog would be because the price was a little too high on the favorite. But those matchups didn't provide a favorite that was struggling mightily, and even if the moneyline was listed as valuable, it was hard to make a case.
The cheat sheet
The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.
Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.
You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:
- True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
- True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
- True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.
DATE | GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | PRICE TO BET |
---|---|---|---|
Jan. 23 | OTT@MTL | 52.8/47.2 | OTT -107/MTL +131 |
DAL@DET | 48.4/51.6 | DAL +118/DET +104 | |
TB@PHI | 46.4/53.6 | TB +136/PHI -111 | |
VGK@NYI | 38.9/61.1 | VGK +186/NYI -151 | |
WSH@MIN | 42.5/57.5 | WSH +160/MIN -130 | |
STL@CGY | 41.9/58.1 | STL +164/CGY -133 | |
CBJ@EDM | 29.9/70.1 | CBJ +286/EDM -223 | |
BUF@ANA | 54.2/45.8 | BUF -114/ANA +139 | |
NYR@SJS | 64.4/35.6 | NYR -173/SJS +217 | |
Jan. 24 | WPG@TOR | 43.0/57.0 | WPG +156/TOR -127 |
ARI@FLA | 38.7/61.3 | ARI +188/FLA -152 | |
CAR@BOS | 47.4/52.6 | CAR +131/BOS -107 | |
WSH@COL | 33.4/66.6 | WSH +241/COL -191 | |
CHI@SEA | 23.6/76.4 | CHI +409/SEA -306 | |
STL@VAN | 37.8/62.2 | STL +196/VAN -158 | |
BUF@LAK | 37.8/62.2 | BUF +196/LAK -158 | |
Jan. 25 | PHI@DET | 46.5/53.5 | PHI +135/DET -110 |
ARI@TB | 39.9/60.1 | ARI +179/TB -144 | |
BOS@OTT | 48.3/51.7 | BOS +118/OTT +103 | |
NYI@MTL | 51.5/48.5 | NYI +104/MTL +117 | |
NJD@CAR | 43.2/56.8 | NJD +155/CAR -126 | |
NSH@MIN | 45.2/54.8 | NSH +143/MIN -117 | |
ANA@DAL | 39.8/60.2 | ANA +179/DAL -145 | |
CHI@EDM | 15.3/84.7 | CHI +788/EDM -515 | |
CBJ@CGY | 38.0/62.0 | CBJ +194/CGY -156 | |
Jan. 26 | VGK@NYR | 37.2/62.8 | VGK +201/NYR -162 |
FLA@PIT | 45.4/54.6 | FLA +141/PIT -115 | |
LAK@COL | 46.8/54.6 | LAK +134/COL -109 | |
STL@SEA | 42.2/57.8 | STL +162/SEA -132 | |
Jan. 27 | BOS@PHI | 51.6/48.4 | BOS +104/PHI +118 |
WSH@DAL | 44.8/55.2 | WSH +145/DAL -118 | |
NSH@EDM | 37.1/62.9 | NSH +202/EDM -163 | |
BUF@SJS | 56.6/43.4 | BUF -125/SJS +154 | |
NYR@OTT | 44.4/55.6 | NYR +147/OTT -120 | |
MTL@PIT | 40.3/59.7 | MTL +175/PIT -142 | |
TOR@WPG | 49.0/51.0 | TOR +115/WPG +106 | |
ARI@CAR | 38.3/61.7 | ARI +191/CAR -154 | |
NJD@TB | 44.8/55.2 | NJD +145/TB -118 | |
FLA@NYI | 45.6/54.4 | FLA +140/NYI -114 | |
VGK@DET | 44.4/55.6 | VGK +148/DET -120 | |
ANA@MIN | 37.5/62.5 | ANA +198/MIN -159 | |
CBJ@VAN | 38.9/61.1 | CBJ +187/VAN -151 | |
CHI@CGY | 23.3/76.7 | CHI +418/CGY -311 | |
Jan. 28 | LAK@STL | 55.0/45.0 | LAK -118/STL +144 |
CBJ@SEA | 33.3/66.7 | CBJ +242/SEA -192 |
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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Kings’ McLellan: Dubois ‘has to be a difference-maker’
Todd McLellan thinks it's high time that center Pierre-Luc Dubois makes a substantial impact on the Los Angeles Kings.
"At the end of the day, whether PL gets four minutes or gets 24 minutes, he has to be a difference-maker," the bench boss said after Monday's 4-3 shootout loss to the San Jose Sharks, per Hockey Royalty's Russell Morgan. "And with or without the puck, we've gone through this long enough. It's time."
Dubois is in his first season in Los Angeles after forcing a trade out of Winnipeg this past offseason. The Kings acquired his services from the Jets in a sign-and-trade that sent forwards Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari, and a 2024 second-round pick north of the border.
Prior to the swap, the Jets inked Dubois to an eight-year extension with an average annual value of $8.5 million. That cap hit will make the 25-year-old the highest-paid forward on the Kings next season, when captain Anze Kopitar's two-year, $14-million pact kicks in.
However, Dubois and the Kings have hardly been a match made in heaven.
L.A.'s flashy addition has mustered just nine goals and 19 points in 44 games while averaging under 16 minutes of ice time. He is also a minus-13 on a Kings squad that boasts a plus-25 goal differential, and he ranks last on the team in both goals above replacement (minus-5.4) and wins above replacement (minus-0.9), per Evolving Hockey.
Dubois is on pace for just 35 points, which would be a new career low, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 campaign. He's frequently fallen out of favor in the top six, and McLellan has at times demoted him to the fourth line.
The Kings enjoyed a hot start to the campaign, going 20-7-4 through late December. However, Los Angeles picked up just two wins in its last 13 games in an uninspiring skid that featured an eight-game losing streak. As a result, the red-hot Edmonton Oilers have usurped the Kings for third place in the Pacific Division.
Despite L.A.'s suddenly precarious playoff positioning, general manager Rob Blake said Thursday he isn't considering a coaching change.
"Our philosophy here for the past three, four years is on the structure and the system and the design and the buy-in of the players, and (McLellan has) gotten that from the players," he said, per The Athletic's Eric Stephens. "I'm going to rely on the players and the leadership to get us out of that."
Dubois and the Kings' next chance to get things back on track will come Wednesday against the Buffalo Sabres.
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‘I should know better’: Letang, Pens address own goal
The Pittsburgh Penguins ended up on the highlight reel for all the wrong reasons after allowing a disastrous own goal to the Arizona Coyotes during Monday's 5-2 defeat.
Lars Eller, who could only watch helplessly from the bench as his teammates scored on the wrong net, offered a blunt assessment of the gaffe.
"Shit happens," he said, per Pittsburgh Hockey Now's Dan Kingerski.
The blunder occurred with the Coyotes on a delayed penalty early in the third period and Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry on the bench to give his team an extra attacker. Workhorse defenseman Kris Letang controlled the puck in Pittsburgh's zone when he chucked a pass behind him to Evgeni Malkin. The veteran forward couldn't corral the puck and inadvertently directed it into the net.
The result was a two-goal lead for the Coyotes and, ultimately, a second-straight loss for the Penguins.
"If you look at it, my pass was going in the corner; it was not going in the net," Letang said of the miscue. "But I should know better. I should not go backward when there's no goalie."
Bench boss Mike Sullivan said his team should have been more cognizant of the situation, adding the Penguins' response after the error was "not good enough."
"I think we just have to have a heightened awareness that we don't have a goalie in the net in that scenario," Sullivan said. "We've got to try to avoid making plays in that area. I think if we have a heightened awareness, then we don't fall victim to a bad bounce or whatever it may be."
The Penguins also suffered a frustrating loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday. Pittsburgh carried a 2-0 lead heading into the third period of the contest, but the reigning Stanley Cup champions scored three unanswered goals to win in regulation.
Despite the demoralizing nature of the Penguins' last four periods, Sullivan refused to look down on his squad.
"I'm not discouraged," he said. "I believe in this group. I think we have good players. I believe we have what it takes to win consistently. Obviously, we're disappointed with the last four periods; we recognize that it's not our best.
"I don't think discouraged is a word that should enter our dressing room. I think we've just got to get more determined."
The Penguins have lost four of their last five games and are five points out of a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, though they have games in hand.
Pittsburgh's next chance at redemption comes Friday against the Florida Panthers at home.
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