The Predators have mastered the art of low-event hockey. They've tightened the ship relative to what we saw earlier in the season by cutting down the chances allowed while sacrificing offensively. The strategy has led to a lot of low-scoring contests lately.
Nashville has played seven straight games in which no more than five goals were scored, with the average being just 4.57 goals. That's nearly two full goals below tonight's total.
I know the Senators have bled goals all season, but there's reason to believe there's light at the end of the tunnel. Ottawa finally appears to be making a lot of progress under interim coach Jacques Martin.
At five-on-five, the Sens have allowed just 1.96 expected goals per 60 minutes over the past couple of weeks (seven games). That's the second-lowest rate in the league, placing them behind only the Panthers.
Ottawa has also done a much better job of staying out of the box in that time, which helps make life easier for its netminders.
We've still seen some big goal totals in the Senators' games, as goaltending has remained an issue, but their process has improved drastically. And the Predators aren't a highly skilled finishing team likely to convert on seemingly every chance that comes their way.
Nashville and Ottawa both rank in the top seven in expected goal suppression over the past couple of weeks. With the Predators playing in a lot of hotly contested, low-scoring affairs and the Senators looking to play a similar style to mask their goaltending issues, I don't expect much action in this one.
Bet: Under 6.5 (+105)
Brady Tkachuk: Over 3.5 shots
Tkachuk has gone under his shot total in four consecutive games, but I love his chances of getting back on track Monday night.
The 24-year-old has recorded four-plus shots in 19 of 26 contests in Ottawa this season, which equates to a ridiculous 73% success rate.
We've seen a slight dip in Tkachuk's volume lately, but that's likely a byproduct of a difficult schedule as opposed to anything he's doing wrong. The Senators' last three home games came against the Jets, Bruins, and Rangers.
The Predators are competent but certainly a tier or two below those teams.
Nashville also struggles mightily on the penalty kill. Over the past 10 games, the club ranks in the bottom six in suppressing shots, goals, and expected goals when shorthanded.
Tkachuk has a healthy team lead in shots and scoring chances while on the man advantage. Getting him looks around the net is the top priority for the Senators, so Tkachuk should have ample opportunity to take advantage of Nashville's weak penalty kill.
As a cherry on top, Tim Stutzle returns Monday to center Tkachuk's top line. The Sens captain averages four more shot attempts per 60 minutes when playing with Stutzle as opposed to Josh Norris.
Odds: -135 (playable to -150)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.
We made it past the true midway point of the season weeks ago. But with just a handful of games remaining before NHL All-Star Weekend and the break that comes with it, let's take this dip in action to look at how the betting market feels about every team. For comparison, we did a similar exercise in early December.
Since moneylines are a function of win probability, each team's rating is based on how much better (plus) or worse (minus) it is than an average team on neutral ice. For example, if your favorite club flies to Sweden and is -150 (60% likely) to beat a league-average (zero) team like the Predators, the betting market has deemed your club 20% better than average.
Below is an estimation of how the betting market rates each team based on recent moneylines before factoring injuries to players who matter to its win probability.
NHL betting market power ratings
We included a team's preseason market rating - based on its regular season point total before the season started. Like a stock, every team has a valuation, so we also note how much the valuation has changed since before the campaign.
Despite a rough start, the Oilers have always been rated as a top team. They've certainly verified that with a huge win streak.
The Canucks and Jets continue to be the league's pleasant surprises. However, the most interesting dichotomy is the Red Wings' rating drop considering they're contending for a playoff spot.
The Sharks were expected to struggle at the beginning of the season, but no one predicted them to be this bad. Despite starting the campaign at the bottom, their market rating has taken the biggest hit.
The cheat sheet
The dirty little secret in the betting world is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.
Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.
You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:
True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.
DATE
GAME
WIN PROB. (%)
PRICE TO BET
Jan. 29
NSH@OTT
45.9/54.1
NSH +139/OTT -113
Jan. 30
CBJ@STL
42.1/57.9
CBJ +162/STL -132
SEA@SJS
56.7/43.3
SEA -126/SJS +154
Jan. 31
OTT@DET
49.8/50.2
OTT +112/DET +110
LAK@NSH
52.2/47.8
LAK +101/NSH +121
SJS@ANA
38.4/61.6
SJS +191/ANA -154
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
This is the eighth in-season edition of theScore's NHL Power Rankings for the 2023-24 campaign. Check back for updated rankings every other Monday.
In this edition, we select the biggest All-Star snub from every team.
1. Edmonton Oilers (29-15-1)
Previous rank: 5
Zach Hyman. A third Oilers forward getting into the All-Star Game will always be a tough challenge. If there was any season for it, Hyman getting a nod would've been it. He's on pace for over 50 goals and is still loved by the All-Star hosts in Toronto.
2. Vancouver Canucks (33-11-5)
Previous rank: 2
Filip Hronek. This one's tricky, since, like, every Canuck made it into the All-Star Game (OK, there are five plus head coach Rick Tocchet). So we're choosing Hronek, who ranks fifth in Vancouver with 36 points in 49 games during his first full season as a Canuck.
3. Boston Bruins (31-9-9)
Previous rank: 4
Charlie Coyle. Let's hear a little commotion for the veteran center, who has stepped up following Patrice Bergeron's and David Krejci's retirements. He ranks third on the Bruins in both goals (18) and points (42) in 49 games and is on pace to set career highs in both categories. Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy would also fit the bill, but Coyle has been a quietly vital piece.
4. Florida Panthers (31-14-4)
Previous rank: 3
Matthew Tkachuk. The NHL leader in primary points for January isn't Nikita Kucherov or Nathan MacKinnon or Connor McDavid. It's Tkachuk, who racked up 24 - five more than the second most.
5. Winnipeg Jets (30-12-5)
Darcy Finley / National Hockey League / Getty
Previous rank: 1
Mark Scheifele. Sure, the Jets forward will now be using the All-Star break to continue recovering from a lower-body injury, but Scheifele would still fit right in at the festivities, seeing as he leads Winnipeg with 41 points in 41 games.
6. Colorado Avalanche (32-14-3)
Previous rank: 6
Mikko Rantanen. It's truly hilarious that Rantanen isn't at the All-Star Game. He's top 10 in goals and points, and his exclusion is an indictment on the selection process that mandates a rep from every team.
7. Dallas Stars (30-13-6)
Previous rank: 8
Roope Hintz. Yes, we've chosen Hintz over linemate Jason Robertson, who leads the Stars in points but hasn't been as explosive offensively as he was last season. Hintz, meanwhile, is targeting his second straight point-per-game campaign.
8. New York Rangers (30-16-3)
Previous rank: 7
Jonathan Quick. Before you express your outrage in the comments, Artemi Panarin can't go. The Rangers' other goalie, Igor Shesterkin, is attending the All-Star Game, but Quick has had the better season statistically, sporting a .915 save percentage and 10-4-2 record. The veteran hasn't been invited to an All-Star Game since 2018, so it would've been cool if he got the nod, OK?
9. Carolina Hurricanes (28-15-5)
Previous rank: 9
Seth Jarvis. In his third NHL campaign, the 21-year-old is about to absolutely smash his point totals from his last two seasons. Jarvis has racked up 38 points - just two off his previous career high - in 48 games and is on pace to crack the 60-point mark.
10. Vegas Golden Knights (29-15-6)
Ethan Miller / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Previous rank: 12
Jonathan Marchessault. The defending Stanley Cup champions having zero representatives at the All-Star Game after Jack Eichel's injury seems like a major oversight. Nobody would rep the champs better than Conn Smythe winner Marchessault, who's on pace for a career high in goals.
11. Toronto Maple Leafs (25-14-8)
Previous rank: 13
John Tavares. The Maple Leafs' captain isn't having his best season, but it still would've been fun to see all five of Toronto's top stars at the All-Star Game in their home rink.
12. Tampa Bay Lightning (27-18-5)
Previous rank: 19
Victor Hedman. Any concerns over Hedman's offensive production have subsided. The 33-year-old has already passed his point total from a down 2022-23 campaign through just 48 games to rank fourth among all defenders in scoring.
13. Philadelphia Flyers (25-19-6)
Previous rank: 11
John Tortorella. If the All-Star Game coaches were chosen based on Jack Adams odds rather than whichever team is leading each division, Tortorella would be the Metropolitan rep. Send him to the All-Star Game, get him mic'd-up, and put an iso cam on him during the games.
14. Detroit Red Wings (26-18-5)
Previous rank: 20
Dylan Larkin. The Red Wings captain paces his team with 22 goals and 46 points while appearing in six fewer contests than Detroit's sole representative, Alex DeBrincat. Though DeBrincat is certainly worthy of the honor, Larkin should be making his third straight All-Star appearance.
15. New Jersey Devils (24-20-3)
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty
Previous rank: 14
Jesper Bratt and Luke Hughes. Look, maybe we're cheating, but this one is a tie. Bratt has been a bona fide star, leading the Devils with 50 points in 47 games, but we're not immune to the lure of having all three Hughes brothers at the All-Star Weekend. It would be fun!
16. Los Angeles Kings (22-15-10)
Previous rank: 15
Trevor Moore. The underrated forward paces the Kings with 21 goals - surpassing his previous career high of 17 - and four game-winners. Moore has carved out quite the role for himself in Los Angeles, and it would've been nice to see him honored with his first All-Star selection.
17. St. Louis Blues (26-20-2)
Previous rank: 24
Pavel Buchnevich. Roll the tapes. Since slamming his slow start to the season as "awful" in early November, Buchnevich has rattled off 16 tallies, 36 points, and a team-leading five game-winning goals in 37 games. Not bad. Not bad at all.
18. Seattle Kraken (21-18-10)
Previous rank: 10
Joey Daccord. Since December, Daccord has been lights out for the Kraken with a 12-5-4 record and a .934 save percentage. Maybe Oliver Bjorkstrand can re-book his vacation, and Daccord can go to Toronto instead.
19. Pittsburgh Penguins (22-17-7)
Previous rank: 17
Jake Guentzel. Who better to join Sidney Crosby at the All-Star Game than his most frequent linemate? Guentzel ranks second on the Penguins with 22 goals, 49 points, and 38 even-strength points in 46 games, trailing only - you guessed it - Crosby.
20. New York Islanders (20-17-12)
Cato Cataldo / National Hockey League / Getty
Previous rank: 16
Noah Dobson. One of the biggest snubs league-wide, it's baffling that Dobson wasn't chosen as the Islanders' rep. That's no disrespect to Mathew Barzal, but Dobson leads the team in points (52) and plus/minus (plus-21) while ranking third among all defenders in scoring. Not recognizing his Norris-level season is incredibly disappointing.
21. Nashville Predators (26-22-1)
Previous rank: 18
Ryan O'Reilly. Quite frankly, the 32-year-old is killing it in his first season as a Predator. O'Reilly ranks second on the team with 17 goals and 42 points in 49 games. He might crack the 70-point mark for the second time in his career and is on pace for around 28 tallies, which would tie his previous high.
22. Buffalo Sabres (22-23-4)
Previous rank: 25
Casey Mittelstadt. After looking like a bust relative to massive expectations coming out of college, Mittelstadt's found his groove the past season and a half. He paces the Sabres with 41 points and has been a consistent presence in the lineup while Buffalo has dealt with injuries to seemingly every other top-six forward.
23. Washington Capitals (22-18-7)
Previous rank: 23
Alex Ovechkin. It's called the All-Star Game for a reason. Even amid a career-worst goal-scoring season, Ovechkin leads the Capitals in points, so it's not like he's out of the question for a spot on merit, either. Simply put, the All-Star Game is better when Ovechkin is there.
24. Arizona Coyotes (23-22-3)
Previous rank: 21
Connor Ingram. The goaltender has been simply outstanding, and the Coyotes probably wouldn't be in the playoff hunt without him. He has a better save percentage (.916) than five of the netminders attending this year's All-Star Game.
25. Calgary Flames (22-22-5)
Jenn Pierce / National Hockey League / Getty
Previous rank: 22
Blake Coleman. The 32-year-old is putting together a stellar campaign with the Flames. He's already notched a career-high 39 points and leads Calgary in scoring. He would've been a worthy selection had he gotten the nod over Elias Lindholm.
26. Ottawa Senators (18-25-2)
Previous rank: 30
Tim Stutzle. This one was a toss-up between the German forward and Claude Giroux, but we went with Stutzle because, well, he hasn't been before. He tops the struggling Senators with 45 points in 45 games and could be a point-per-game player for the second straight season.
27. Montreal Canadiens (20-21-8)
Previous rank: 26
Cole Caufield. Sure, he isn't lighting the lamp as much during his first season back from shoulder surgery, but Caufield still leads the Canadiens with 17 goals in 49 games. He'd probably wreak havoc in an accuracy shooting competition.
28. Minnesota Wild (21-23-5)
Previous rank: 27
Joel Eriksson Ek. The Wild's top two-way center is one of the more underrated forwards in the game, and that trend has continued this season. He leads Minnesota with 21 goals in 49 games and is already only six tallies away from setting a new career high. Maybe Eriksson Ek will finally be recognized next year.
29. Columbus Blue Jackets (15-24-10)
Previous rank: 28
Adam Fantilli. Bring back the YoungStars game! Or at least some kind of representation of the next wave of talent. A rookie versus sophomore showcase like back in 2009 would be an excellent way to introduce more fans to the up-and-coming players in the league who aren't quite ready to play their way into the full All-Star Game yet.
30. Anaheim Ducks (17-30-2)
Michael Reaves / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Previous rank: 29
Leo Carlsson. Carlsson featuring opposite fellow top-three pick Fantilli in a potential YoungStars game would've been a fun addition to the weekend lineup.
31. San Jose Sharks (13-32-4)
Previous rank: 32
William Eklund. Apologies to the Sharks, but this one was ... difficult. Eklund, at least, is an exciting young talent who ranks third on San Jose with 21 points in 48 contests. The Sharks haven't won many games, but Eklund has been directly responsible for four of them. No one else on the team has more than one game-winner.
32. Chicago Blackhawks (14-34-2)
Previous rank: 31
Petr Mrazek. The Blackhawks recently rewarded the 31-year-old with a two-year contract extension and a $450,000 raise. He's posted above-average numbers on a bottom-ranked team and would certainly bring some fun to the All-Star Game with his aggressive style.
Columbus Blue Jackets rookie Adam Fantilli suffered a lower-body injury during his team's 4-2 loss to the Seattle Kraken on Sunday night.
The incident occurred in the second period when Fantilli laid a hit on Kraken forward Jared McCann. Fantilli hopped off the ice and limped down the tunnel, favoring his lower left leg.
New York Rangers forward Filip Chytil will miss the remainder of the 2023-24 season, the team announced Sunday.
Chytil sustained a setback in his recovery from a concussion during Friday's morning skate and needed help off the ice from a pair of teammates, reports NHL.com's Dan Rosen.
The 24-year-old tallied six assists in 10 games this season prior to sustaining the ailment on Nov. 2 when he collided with Carolina Hurricanes forward Jesper Fast.
Defenseman David Jiricek voiced his frustration with how the Columbus Blue Jackets have handled him this season.
"I played good hockey in the NHL," Jiricek told The Athletic's Aaron Portzline on Friday. "I'm an NHL player right now. That's my opinion: that I should be in the NHL right now."
Jiricek was drafted sixth overall by the Blue Jackets in 2022. He's played 36 games with Columbus this season, recording one goal and nine points. He was sent down to the Cleveland Monsters on Jan. 18 in the middle of a Blue Jackets road trip.
The 20-year-old Czech native looks to two blue-liners from the top 10 of the 2022 class as examples of the opportunity he would like to get in Columbus.
"I see guys from the same draft, like Simon Nemec and (Kevin) Korchinski ... they get a chance on the power play," Jiricek said. "They play a ton of minutes in the NHL. Those are different teams, so different situations, but I can compare with them. I just want a chance to play like that."
Since a December recall, Nemec, the 2022 second overall pick, has 13 points in 26 games while playing 20:46 per game. Korchinski, who was taken one pick after Jiricek by the Chicago Blackhawks, has tallied nine points in 44 games. He's averaged 19:53 per contest.
Jiricek was playing 14:47 a game with the Blue Jackets. He's played just 25 seconds on the man advantage in the NHL this season, compared to Korchinski's 102:10 and Nemec's 34:58 total ice time on the power play.
The Blue Jackets scratched Jiricek in three straight games after a 5-0 loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Jan. 9 prior to his demotion to the AHL.
"They told me the last game was not good enough for me," Jiricek explained. "I told them I don't think so, but that's your opinion. I was out of the lineup after that."
Blue Jackets head coach Pascal Vincent said he believes the demotion is best for Jiricek's growth as a player.
"We're trying to build a 200-foot defenseman, an elite defenseman who will play heavy minutes against top opponents," Vincent said. "In order to do that, he needs reps. For him to develop those skills, the best way to do it right now - having been in the NHL for 36 games - (the AHL) is the best route for him."
Columbus Blue Jackets forward Patrik Laine entered the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program, the league announced Sunday.
Laine will be unavailable indefinitely while receiving care. He can return to on-ice competition after receiving clearance from program administrators.
"Patrik has our complete support, and our sole concern is his well-being," Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen said in a statement. "Out of respect for Patrik, we will have no further comment."
Laine has missed significant time this season with multiple injuries. He has five goals and eight points in 17 games.
The 25-year-old hasn't played since sustaining a broken clavicle on Dec. 14. Head coach Pascal Vincent told reporters Friday that Laine had a setback in his recovery and was sent back to Columbus.
Laine reportedly rejoined teammates in practice two weeks ago and hoped to return to game action before the end of the Blue Jackets' road trip Tuesday.
Kekalainen is apparently willing to listen to trade offers for Laine. He's signed through 2025-26 at a $8.7-million cap hit.
Laine has 204 goals and 388 points in 480 career games between the Winnipeg Jets and Blue Jackets.
