Welcome to the fourth edition of theScore's 2023-24 Norris Trophy Rankings and the third in-season version. New rankings are published once a month throughout the campaign.
These rankings focus on analytics and the all-around ability of defensemen rather than only points or reputation.
While Nos. 1 and 2 remain the same, three new blue-liners crack the list this month.
xGF% = five-on-five expected goals for percentage
5. Noah Dobson, Islanders
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 6 | 30 | 25:23 | 49.1 |
Dobson's underlying numbers pale in comparison to others on this list - and even some who were left off. But context is important here.
The 23-year-old has undoubtedly been the Islanders' MVP this season, as he's one point shy of Mathew Barzal for the team lead. But his value to the team has really come through over the past month while the club has been without fellow top-four defense stalwarts Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech. The absences have forced Dobson to average 27:12 per game since the last edition of these rankings, and he's produced 14 points in 13 contests over that stretch. On the season, he trails only Drew Doughty in average ice time.
The Islanders are 7-3-3 in that same stretch. They find themselves in the thick of the playoff race but wouldn't be close if it weren't for Dobson, who's generating offense at a high rate for a team that typically struggles in that department.
4. Josh Morrissey, Jets
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 6 | 24 | 24:16 | 54 |
The Josh "Norrissey" campaign is starting to gain steam again.
Morrissey is putting together another excellent season - one that's arguably better than last year when he finished fifth in voting after putting up 76 points in 78 games. His points per game are down from 2022-23, but his underlying numbers have vastly improved.
While much of Morrissey's production came with the man advantage last year, he hasn't been quite the power-play savant this year. He's still been effective in quarterbacking Winnipeg's No. 1 unit, but more importantly, he ranks second only to Quinn Hughes with 22 points at even strength among defensemen.
3. Miro Heiskanen, Stars
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 4 | 22 | 25:21 | 59.7 |
Heiskanen has been the NHL's best defensive blue-liner this season. He ranks second in the league in defensive goals above replacement. Among rearguards to play at least 20 games this season, Heiskanen sits third in expected goals against per 60 minutes, trailing only the injured Jonas Brodin and veteran Brian Dumoulin, who's playing a third-pairing role.
Heiskanen is a true workhorse who ranks fifth in average ice time and matches up against opposing teams' top forwards on a nightly basis.
The offense is starting to come around, too, making him one of the league's most well-rounded blue-liners. He's produced 11 points in 12 games since the last rankings.
2. Quinn Hughes, Canucks
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 10 | 36 | 24:30 | 50.6 |
This past month would've been a tremendous opportunity for Hughes to usurp Makar for the top spot on this list, but both players have been somewhat pedestrian of late relative to their lofty standards.
Hughes recorded 10 points in 11 games and posted a 52.7 xGF% since the last rankings. That's a month any defenseman would be happy to have, but it wasn't enough to put him ahead of Makar, who posted a similar line of 10 points in 10 games with a 51.6 xGF%.
Hughes has the edge in even-strength points (29-21), but that's largely due to Vancouver's 14% shooting percentage when he's been on the ice at five-on-five. Colorado's is 10.1% with Makar on the ice at five-on-five.
1. Cale Makar, Avalanche
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 8 | 36 | 24:25 | 55.5 |
Both Hughes and Makar have put up video game numbers over the season, and their play of late has been more or less even, as noted above. They've both been elite offensively, but Makar's edge defensively puts him over the top.
With Makar on the ice at five-on-five, the Avalanche are surrendering 2.37 expected goals against per 60 minutes. The Canucks, on the other hand, hold a mark of 2.72 with Hughes. Furthermore, Makar edges Hughes in defensive goals above replacement 1.6 to 1.4 despite skating in four fewer games.
It's a neck-and-neck two-horse race at the moment, but Makar continues to lead by a nose.
(Analytics source: Evolving Hockey)
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