NHL Thursday best bets: Trust Vancouver as road underdog

We bounced back in a big way Wednesday night, sweeping the board on our best bets to push our weekly record to 8-5 between props, sides, and totals.

Let's look at a couple of matchups where I see value Thursday night.

Canucks (+130) @ Stars (-150)

The Stars are in a rut. Things don't look too bad on the surface - they're 5-3-2 over the last 10 - but the picture isn't as bright when you look closer.

They've controlled only 45.94% of the expected goals at five-on-five and conceded more goals per 60 than all but the Blues in that time. Strong defense and goaltending are calling cards for the Stars, so to be lacking in both areas is not only uncommon but concerning.

Jake Oettinger, who's struggled, is now sidelined with an injury. That leaves Scott Wedgewood as the temporary No. 1. Although he owns a 7-2-1 record, Wedgewood has conceded well over three goals per game and grades out as a slight negative in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAE). He probably won't steal games and mask all of Dallas' mistakes.

This is also a very tough matchup for the Stars. The Canucks are loaded with high-end finishers (Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller, etc.) who've helped the team shoot the lights out all season long. If Dallas plays leaky defense in front of a backup goaltender, the team will likely pay the price.

Although the Canucks have also seen a dip in their five-on-five play of late, Thatcher Demko is more than capable of masking their mistakes. He leads the league in GSAE by a healthy margin, shaving nearly five more goals off expectation than second-place Jeremy Swayman.

With a goaltending edge and a more in-form offense, I see value backing the Canucks as road underdogs.

Bet: Canucks (+130)

Coyotes (-150) @ Sharks (+130)

There was a time when the Sharks were playing respectable hockey and grinding out wins against quality sides. That time has passed.

San Jose now looks more like the team we saw back in October. The Sharks have dropped three in a row and six of 10 while posting some putrid metrics.

No team has allowed five-on-five shots or expected goals at a higher rate over the last 10 games. San Jose is back to spending most of its games on its heels, asking far too much from a mediocre goaltending tandem.

Led by Connor Ingram, the Coyotes have allowed next to nothing for quite some time. They play a very low-event brand of hockey, and Ingram has slammed the door shut whenever asked.

Only Filip Gustavsson, Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Sorokin, and Juuse Saros have saved more goals above expected over the past month. Ingram will make it very difficult on a Sharks team that struggles to finish its chances at the best of times.

Offensively, it's worth noting that the Coyotes are one of the league's better teams at working the puck into the slot and scoring from high-danger areas. This young Sharks defense won't provide much resistance.

This game sets up nicely for the Coyotes to have success at both ends of the ice. Look for them to grind out a road win within 60 minutes.

Bet: Coyotes in regulation (+100)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday player props: Nylander to exploit struggling Sabres

Wednesday was a strong night on the ice as we won all three bets, including a pair of shot props.

Let's take a closer look at three of my favorites for Thursday's monster slate.

William Nylander: Over 3.5 shots

Nylander has been quiet of late when it comes to shot generation, finishing with three or fewer in four of his past six games.

It's no coincidence that Nylander struggled against playoff teams like the Rangers and Predators while getting the job done against weaker opponents in the Blue Jackets and Penguins.

The Sabres fit into the latter group. They've won just 13 of 33 games this season and have struggled mightily on the defensive side of things. They give up chances in bulk and tend to find themselves in high-event games more often than not.

That should create the perfect game environment for Nylander, who has torched the Sabres in the past. Nylander has faced the Sabres three times this calendar year, going over his total in all three while combining to pile up 17 shots on goal, nearly six per game.

Odds: -120 (playable to -140)

Rasmus Dahlin: Over 2.5 shots

Dahlin has gone over his shot total in 10 consecutive games. He has averaged four shots on goal per game during this stretch, so it's not as if he's just squeaking by. He is often getting the job done with room to spare.

With the Sabres struggling, and key forwards jumping in and out of the lineup due to injury, Dahlin has taken it upon himself to get more involved offensively. It's paying off for him; he has nine points and 40 shots over the last 10 games.

What I love about Dahlin is how much ice time he gets. He's playing well over 25 minutes per game right now and has logged fewer than 23 minutes only once during this hot streak. Even in games that aren't all that close, he is playing as much as possible to try and turn things around. That is very important in creating a strong floor and ceiling.

Playing a boatload of minutes in a high-paced matchup against a division rival, the game situation couldn't be much better for Dahlin to have success.

Look for the Sabres' star defenseman to extend his shooting streak to 11 games.

Odds: -114 (playable to -130)

Carter Verhaeghe: Over 3.5 shots

Verhaeghe is a monster on home ice. He has averaged 8.1 shot attempts per game in Florida this season, which is drastically higher than he's managed on the road (6.2).

That has translated to more success. Verhaeghe has a 62% hit rate in Florida compared to only 44% when away from home.

Verhaeghe has predictably fared better against non-playoff sides and weaker defensive teams. Over the past 10 home games, he failed to get the job done against the Jets, Bruins, Hurricanes, and low-event Kraken.

His hits came against the Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, Oilers, Penguins, Stars, and Islanders. That's a batch consisting almost exclusively of teams outside the playoff picture as well as one of the worst shot-suppression sides in the Islanders.

The Blues' defensive metrics have seen a bit of a bump since the coaching change, but there is only so much their subpar defense can do. A road game against a high-end Panthers team is not a spot where they're likely to hold up, and Verhaeghe should be one of the prime beneficiaries.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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Overrated/Underrated: Going All in, Coach Bumps & Messi Live

Dan & Sat answer your top Overrated/underrated questions! Topics include, Canucks going all in this season, new coach bumps, watching Lionel Messi at BC Place, and a few holiday themed questions.

 

This podcast was produced by Elan Chark & Josh Elliott-Wolfe

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Is The Western Conference Wide Open?

Dan & Sat open the show discussing the Canucks impressive win over Nashville, and if the Canucks are a top team in the Western Conference. How can the Canucks prevent a slump? What kind of team will the Canucks look like in the playoffs? Kevin Woodley joins the show. He talks Casey DeSmith, coaching metrics, and much more.

 

This Podcast was produced by Elan Chark & Josh Elliott-Wolfe

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

December 20 2023 – Patrick Johnston & Dave Hall

The Canucks can’t stop, won’t stop!

Another win to break down as they win again in Nashville, so Matt and Blake highlight the complete effort while hearing from coach Rick Tocchet.

Patrick Johnston of The Province stops by with his thoughts on the contributions of several key Canucks like Pius Suter and Nikita Zadorov, plus what is the future of Andrei Kuzmenko?

Then the guys get you set for the World Junior tournament as Dave Hall visits from CanucksArmy. He gives his predictions for the big 3 of Canada, Sweden and the USA with a focus on North Vancouver’s Macklin Celebrini and the Canucks prospects.

That, plus a whole lot more, like the Whitecaps getting Lionel Messi and Inter Miami on their schedule! Presented by Applewood Auto Group.

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Berube: Kyrou just didn’t know what to say about firing

Craig Berube believes Jordan Kyrou's comments about him weren't malicious, even though they caused fans to boo the forward.

"Listen, I've got no issue with it," the former Blues head coach said on "The Ray & Dregs Hockey Podcast" on Wednesday. "He got caught off guard and didn't know what to say. He's young. A lot of these young guys get asked questions at the time and they're not thinking like they should think and it's tough for them."

The Blues fired Berube last Wednesday. The next day, Kyrou was asked about the ex-bench boss and said, "I've got no comment. He's not my coach anymore." Blues fans then booed Kyrou during a 4-2 win over the Ottawa Senators later that evening.

Kyrou got emotional when discussing the situation after the game. He said it was "definitely the toughest game I've probably played," and that he understood why the fans got upset given how it may have seemed. But the 25-year-old insisted he meant no harm.

Berube was pleased to see Kyrou respond with a goal and two assists in a 4-3 win over the Dallas Stars two days later.

"I was happy for Jordan," Berube said, adding that Kyrou reached out to him amid the controversy. "He came back and had a good game against Dallas, a very good team. So he performed well, and he'll be fine."

Kyrou racked up a career-best 37 goals while adding 36 assists over 79 games in 2022-23. A season earlier, he notched 27 tallies and a career-high 48 helpers in 74 contests. However, even after his multi-point outing against the Stars, Kyrou has only six goals and 15 assists over 31 games in 2023-24.

The Blues conclude a two-game visit to Florida when they face the Panthers on Thursday night. The Tampa Bay Lightning walloped St. Louis 6-1 on Tuesday.

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Ovechkin optimistic about ending scoring slump

Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin isn't making a big deal out of his 13-game goalless drought.

"I have chances, I have pretty good chances, but sometimes it's just a period of maybe you hold the stick too tight because you didn't score or something," he said in a recent interview with NHL.com's Tom Gulitti. "But I think overall, sooner or later it's going to happen, and everything is going to go in."

With 1,375 NHL games under his belt - the second most among all active players - there's no one more familiar with Ovechkin's game than Ovechkin, but he's never been stuck in a scoring skid like this in his career.

The 38-year-old has lit the lamp just five times in 28 games this season, but it isn't for lack of trying: Ovechkin ranks 24th in the league with 104 shots and 14th in shots per game (3.71). Dating back to Nov. 22, the start of his current slump, the Russian has put up 46 shots.

He's on pace for around 15 tallies, which would be the lowest output of his career and his first time dipping below the 20-goal mark. Ovechkin managed 24 tallies in 2020-21, but that was during the pandemic-shortened campaign and he was still producing a respectable 0.53 goals per game.

Ovechkin is up to approximately 12 individual expected goals at all strengths so far this season, per Natural Stat Trick. Though the puck isn't going in for him, the veteran is contributing in other ways. He currently ranks third on the Caps with 17 points and became the 16th player in league history to hit the 1,500-point milestone in early December.

Washington is struggling to score as a whole. The team owns the NHL's third-worst goals for per game rate (2.39), as well as the worst power play, which has converted on just 9.8% of its chances.

Despite that, the Capitals sit in fifth place in the Metropolitan Division and are one point outside of the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference with a 15-9-4 record.

For his part, Ovechkin is far more interested in the team's success than his individual stats.

"The most important thing is we collect the points, and we win the games," he said. "I'd rather be in a playoff spot than score 20 goals and you're out of contention."

Ovechkin ranks second all-time with 827 goals and is just 68 tallies away from passing Wayne Gretzky. The nine-time Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy winner is under contract for two more years after this season.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Ovechkin to pepper defenseless Islanders

After a fantastic start to the week, we suffered a setback Tuesday night. Connor McDavid hit the net on only three of 10 attempts - we needed four - to give us a losing night in the prop market while a late 3-1 lead for the Senators quickly turned into a 4-3 deficit, causing the game to go over.

We'll take our lumps and look to get back on track with three bets for Wednesday's small card.

Kraken (+145) @ Kings (-170)

This has all the makings of a tight affair. The Kings play a very low-event brand of hockey built to suck the offense out of games. That shows up in the numbers - especially lately.

The Kings have conceded only 1.80 goals and 21 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play this month. That goal total is the fourth-lowest in the league, and the shot total is nearly four clear of the next closest team.

Los Angeles also saved Cam Talbot - who owns a remarkable .926 save percentage on the campaign - for the latter half of the back-to-back. His solid play is problematic for opponents who will find it difficult to generate shots in the first place.

On the other side, Seattle's missing several key contributors. They've struggled to score goals at the best of times and the absences of Andre Burakovsky, Jaden Schwartz, and Justin Schultz only make matters worse.

Although Seattle's dealt with goaltending issues this season, the team found a way to play defensive hockey and keep things tight. The Kraken sit 26th in five-on-five goals and eighth in goals allowed per 60 minutes during December. They're not scoring, but they're not giving much up.

Because the Kings play a similar style and won't be looking to open things up in a back-to-back situation, I can see this game coming in several goals below the total.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-140)

Gabriel Vilardi: Over 2.5 shots

Vilardi continues to shine with top-line winger Kyle Connor sidelined. He's been a focal point of the first line and top power-play unit and has taken full advantage, recording at least three shots in five consecutive games while piling up eight points.

He's also attempted at least five shots in all but one game, settling at four in the exception. Four is a key number for Vilardi, who lives around the net and is very accurate with his shots. Dating back to last season, he's gone over his total in 32 of 43 games when attempting at least four shots. That's a 74% hit rate.

Skating with Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers - two of the Jets' three leaders in assists - Vilardi consistently finds himself with the puck on his stick in a shooting position. The results speak for themselves.

Meanwhile, the Red Wings are struggling defensively. Only two teams have conceded five-on-five shots at a higher rate over the past 10 games. They've also taken a lot of penalties.

This is a prime spot for Vilardi and the Jets' top line to make some noise.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Alex Ovechkin: Over 3.5 shots

The Islanders have had problems limiting shots all season and are showing no signs of improvement. They rank dead last in shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes over the last 10 games.

Ovechkin isn't having the year people expected but is still capable of piling up the looks against vulnerable defenses. He's stared the Isles down twice this season, and the prolific Russian generated at least eight attempts in each contest and a combined total of eight shots.

We've also seen a recent uptick from Ovechkin. He's averaging 8.4 shot attempts over his last five games, which is noticeably higher than his season average of 7.5.

Against a struggling, banged up defense in a back-to-back situation, Ovechkin should have plenty of opportunities to fire the puck.

Odds: -130 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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