After a fantastic start to the week, we suffered a setback Tuesday night. Connor McDavid hit the net on only three of 10 attempts - we needed four - to give us a losing night in the prop market while a late 3-1 lead for the Senators quickly turned into a 4-3 deficit, causing the game to go over.
We'll take our lumps and look to get back on track with three bets for Wednesday's small card.
Kraken (+145) @ Kings (-170)
This has all the makings of a tight affair. The Kings play a very low-event brand of hockey built to suck the offense out of games. That shows up in the numbers - especially lately.
The Kings have conceded only 1.80 goals and 21 shots per 60 minutes of five-on-five play this month. That goal total is the fourth-lowest in the league, and the shot total is nearly four clear of the next closest team.
Los Angeles also saved Cam Talbot - who owns a remarkable .926 save percentage on the campaign - for the latter half of the back-to-back. His solid play is problematic for opponents who will find it difficult to generate shots in the first place.
On the other side, Seattle's missing several key contributors. They've struggled to score goals at the best of times and the absences of Andre Burakovsky, Jaden Schwartz, and Justin Schultz only make matters worse.
Although Seattle's dealt with goaltending issues this season, the team found a way to play defensive hockey and keep things tight. The Kraken sit 26th in five-on-five goals and eighth in goals allowed per 60 minutes during December. They're not scoring, but they're not giving much up.
Because the Kings play a similar style and won't be looking to open things up in a back-to-back situation, I can see this game coming in several goals below the total.
Bet: Under 6.5 (-140)
Gabriel Vilardi: Over 2.5 shots
Vilardi continues to shine with top-line winger Kyle Connor sidelined. He's been a focal point of the first line and top power-play unit and has taken full advantage, recording at least three shots in five consecutive games while piling up eight points.
He's also attempted at least five shots in all but one game, settling at four in the exception. Four is a key number for Vilardi, who lives around the net and is very accurate with his shots. Dating back to last season, he's gone over his total in 32 of 43 games when attempting at least four shots. That's a 74% hit rate.
Skating with Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers - two of the Jets' three leaders in assists - Vilardi consistently finds himself with the puck on his stick in a shooting position. The results speak for themselves.
Meanwhile, the Red Wings are struggling defensively. Only two teams have conceded five-on-five shots at a higher rate over the past 10 games. They've also taken a lot of penalties.
This is a prime spot for Vilardi and the Jets' top line to make some noise.
Odds: -110 (playable to -130)
Alex Ovechkin: Over 3.5 shots
The Islanders have had problems limiting shots all season and are showing no signs of improvement. They rank dead last in shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes over the last 10 games.
Ovechkin isn't having the year people expected but is still capable of piling up the looks against vulnerable defenses. He's stared the Isles down twice this season, and the prolific Russian generated at least eight attempts in each contest and a combined total of eight shots.
We've also seen a recent uptick from Ovechkin. He's averaging 8.4 shot attempts over his last five games, which is noticeably higher than his season average of 7.5.
Against a struggling, banged up defense in a back-to-back situation, Ovechkin should have plenty of opportunities to fire the puck.
Odds: -130 (playable to -140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.
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