NHL Tuesday best bets: Penguins to cool off streaking Ducks

We split our best bets to begin the week. The Panthers blew a 3-0 lead against the Blue Jackets and were unable to put them away in regulation. Thankfully, a low-event game played out in Dallas to cash the under.

Let's take a closer look at a couple of my favorite plays for Tuesday night's slate.

Jets (-140) @ Blues (+120)

The Jets and Blues enter this contest with matching win totals, but I think there is a sizable gap between the two sides.

Although the Blues have won back-to-back games, those came against a mediocre Canadiens team resting Jake Allen - by far their best goaltender - and a Devils side playing without Jack Hughes (for all but three minutes of ice time) and Nico Hischier.

The Blues' putrid underlying numbers are showing no signs of improvement. They've controlled just 42.7% of the expected goals at five-on-five over the past five games, posting poor metrics in chance generation and prevention.

The Jets, meanwhile, controlled 58% of the expected goals share over the last five, headlined by their league-best numbers in terms of preventing expected goals.

Even without Gabriel Vilardi, the Jets remain a potent five-on-five offense. They should be able to generate plenty of chances against this Blues defense and keep limiting what they give up at the other end.

I see the Jets as a playoff-caliber team and the Blues as closer to the bottom grouping. That should shine through in this game.

Bet: Jets (-140)

Penguins (-165) @ Ducks (+140)

Led by youngsters Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras, Leo Carlsson, and Pavel Mintyukov, the Ducks are a very fun team to watch. They're still not a good team.

Their young core doesn't have a lot of support up front - the bottom six is terrible - and the Ducks' overall defensive play remains quite suspect. The 6-0 run they're on is a lot of smoke and mirrors. Of course, the Ducks deserve credit for scoring in bunches and finding ways to win games, but the way they're doing it isn't sustainable.

The Ducks have controlled only 40.85% of the expected goals share during this hot streak, which puts them very close to the bottom of the league. Getting outchanced consistently is not a recipe for success; nor is being forced to come from behind in the third period on a nightly basis.

Anaheim's level of play needs to rise several tiers for its success to continue and I don't see that happening against the Penguins.

Pittsburgh's start to the season has been a roller-coaster ride but there are a lot of encouraging signs beneath the hood. The Pens have generated chances at an absurd rate on the power play and, sooner or later, the puck will start to find the net in such situations.

They are also playing good hockey at five-on-five. They own a 57.84 xGF% over the past six games, which slots them just below teams like the Hurricanes and Avalanche.

The Penguins are poised to go on a bit of a run. Their 10-2 trouncing of the Sharks was a good place to start. I expect them to build on it versus the Ducks.

Bet: Penguins in regulation (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday player props: MacKinnon set for success vs. Devils

We started the week on a positive note Monday, cashing two of three player props.

Connor McDavid was listed at four shots with several minutes remaining in the second period but never registered another shot and actually had one taken away, preventing us from completing the sweep.

We'll set our sights on a perfect evening with three more props for Tuesday's big NHL card.

Tage Thompson under 3.5 shots

Thompson is having a tough time on the road. He's registered more than six shot attempts in only one game away from Buffalo thus far.

Dating back to last season, Thompson has gone under his 3.5 shot total in 17 of the 21 road games in which he attempted six shots or fewer.

There's plenty of reason to expect a low-volume output Tuesday night against the Hurricanes. They're the league's best shot-suppression team at five-on-five and rank third while killing penalties.

They're particularly dominant on home ice, where they're allowing just 47 shot attempts per game across all situations. The Hurricanes are giving opponents nothing, and they'll have the last change to get the matchups they want against Thompson.

He faced the Hurricanes three times last season, failing to record four shots or more in two of the three - and the exception came in Buffalo.

Expect the Hurricanes to keep Thompson's shot total down in this game.

Odds: -135 (playable to -150)

Rickard Rakell over 2.5 shots

Rakell owns extremely unique splits. He's recorded three shots or more in two of six games in Pittsburgh, where he's averaged just 3.5 attempts per night.

He's hit the over in three of four road games and posted astronomically high shot numbers. He's averaging 4.5 shots on goal and 8.5 shot attempts away from home. Those are the kind of numbers you'd expect from David Pastrnak or Kirill Kaprizov.

The stars are aligning for another productive road showing from Rakell. While the Ducks have performed better than expected this season, that's a byproduct of offense rather than defense. They're still giving up a lot of shots on a nightly basis, and shooters like Rakell benefit greatly from that.

It's also worth noting the Ducks are Rakell's former team. He's enjoyed great success against them since being dealt to the Penguins, recording 14 shots and 22 attempts over the span of three games - all of which he hit the over in. We should see more of the same this time around.

Odds: +100 (playable to -130)

Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots

MacKinnon is a monster on home ice. He has a 61% success rate when playing in Colorado since the beginning of last season. He's averaged 5.1 shots on goal per game, which is as good as it gets in terms of volume.

Although MacKinnon has failed to reach five shots in two of three at home this year, it's important to look at the context of the games.

One was a decisive 4-1 victory over the Blues in which the Avalanche were playing from multiple goals ahead most of the night. The other was a four-shot, eight-attempt performance against the stingy Hurricanes.

A matchup against the Devils should be more in MacKinnon's wheelhouse. They play a very up-tempo, high-event brand of hockey that should benefit MacKinnon and his skill set.

That certainly appeared to be the case in 2022-23. MacKinnon attempted 10 shots in both games against the Devils while combining for 13 shots on target.

We should see an active offensive performance from MacKinnon against a team missing Hart Trophy candidate Jack Hughes and Selke finalist Nico Hischier down the middle of the ice.

Odds: -105 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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Calder Trophy Rankings: A pair of Ducks takes flight

Assessing the rookie class in the early goings of the season can be tricky business.

Some dark horses in the Calder Trophy conversation are off to red-hot starts and have taken the spotlight away from a few favorites. Adam Fantilli and Logan Cooley are missing this time around, but we fully expect them to pop back up on these rankings again at some point. Cooley is tied with two other players on this list for the rookie points lead, but six of his eight have come on the power play.

As the headline suggests, two Ducks feature in this edition - but neither is Leo Carlsson. He's been spectacular, but Anaheim has been managing his workload, so he's only appeared in seven games.

With those caveats out of the way, let's get into it.

5. Matt Poitras, Bruins

Maddie Meyer / Getty Images Sport / Getty
GP G P ATOI
12 4 7 15:04

With the Bruins down their top two centers due to the retirements of David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron, the reigning Presidents' Trophy winners were in need of some help down the middle. Enter Poitras, a 19-year-old Guelph Storm product who surprisingly made the Bruins out of camp. It doesn't seem like he'll be heading back to the OHL any time soon. To quote head coach Jim Montgomery, "he just belongs." A glowing review like that is significant given how good the Bruins have been.

Poitras has seen substantial time in the top six as he's quickly adhered to the Bruins' style of play. The 2022 second-round pick has the third-most goals out of all rookies and is tied for the second-highest point total while leading the class with 10 takeaways. Poitras has also posted strong underlying numbers, with the Bruins controlling 63.6% of the goals and 53.5% of the expected goals with him on the ice at five-on-five.

We'd like to see Poitras get more ice time to boost his Calder hopes - he's only eclipsed the 18-minute mark once in 12 games this season - but that should change as he continues adjusting to life in the NHL. Given the early returns, it's no wonder Boston opted to burn the first year of Poitras' entry-level contract to keep him around with the big club.

4. Bobby Brink, Flyers

Len Redkoles / National Hockey League / Getty
GP G P ATOI
11 3 8 16:24

Like Poitras, Brink has been an extremely pleasant surprise for his team.

Philadelphia's 2019 second-round pick is tied for the rookie points lead, and six of his points have come at even strength, good for the fifth most on the Flyers. Brink has also had three multi-point games, the most among all first-year players.

The 22-year-old is averaging the third-most ice time of all rookie forwards, and those minutes have been fruitful ones for the Flyers: Philadelphia has outscored opponents 12-8 with Brink on the ice at all strengths. For comparison, Philly has dictated less than 50% of the goals in all situations so far this season. It's unsurprising, then, that Brink ranks in the top three in both wins above replacement (0.5) and goals above replacement (3.5) on the Flyers.

There's great potential for even more firepower from Brink, too, given that he's on the Flyers' top power-play unit. The City of Brotherly Love owns the league's third-worst power play with a success rate of just 9.8%, but the team is bound to get going at some point, and Brink will be there to reap the benefits.

3. Lukas Dostal, Ducks

Debora Robinson / National Hockey League / Getty
GP SV% GAA SO
6 .920 2.80 0

Dostal isn't the only rookie goaltender who's been turning heads so far this season - Joseph Woll has been great for the Maple Leafs - but man, has he been vital to the Ducks' surprising success.

The most convincing stat: The dude is 5-1-0. He's been in net for all but two of Anaheim's wins this season. In four of his outings (all victories), Dostal has been forced to make over 30 saves. There's a reason he was named the NHL's Rookie of the Month for October. He owns a sparkling .930 save percentage at even strength and an admirable .863 high-danger save percentage at all strengths while saving 3.02 goals above average and 5.98 goals above expected.

The 23-year-old is sharing the crease with John Gibson, but he's pushing the veteran for playing time, which will be a fascinating storyline if the newbie is able to keep it up. For now, Dostal's performance is a welcome sight for a team that allowed a league-worst 335 goals last season.

2. Connor Bedard, Blackhawks

Chase Agnello-Dean / National Hockey League / Getty
GP G P ATOI
11 5 7 19:27

Bedard hasn't immediately torched the league, but he's come as advertised with a sickeningly dangerous shot. He's still the favorite to win the Calder Trophy, though we've got him in the silver-medal position this time.

The 2023 first overall pick leads the rookie class in goals and is tied for the second-highest point total. Given how lethal his release is, Bedard rightfully hasn't been shy about shooting the puck in the early stages of his career: He paces the Blackhawks with 34 shots, seven clear of Ryan Donato in second place.

What's more, Bedard could have more goals. He scored his first NHL goal in his second game, but in the first five contests of his career, he was mired by a shooting percentage of 5%, converting just once on a whopping 20 shots. Bedard has since turned things around, though, with four goals in his last six games on 14 shots, good for a 28.6% shooting percentage. Yeah, he's starting to figure this whole NHL thing out.

Bedard has the most ice time of all rookie forwards as the Blackhawks' No. 1 center. To make his life harder, he gets a lot of attention from opposing teams, who are doing their damnedest to not get burned by the new kid on the block. So far, the 18-year-old is handling it all very well, including about a million interviews with the media.

1. Pavel Mintyukov, Ducks

Harrison Barden / Getty Images Sport / Getty
GP G P ATOI
11 1 8 19:11

Take one look at Mintyukov, and you'd think he's in his fifth NHL season, not his first. Seriously, the defenseman hasn't played a single game in the AHL and already looks like this? At only 19 years old? What's his secret?

The Ducks' 2022 10th overall pick has impressed with his poise and confidence, both with and without the puck. He already has a knack for discouraging and disrupting plays without taking penalties (he was sent to the sin bin for the first time in his career Sunday against the Vegas Golden Knights), and he has the speed to recover if he gets caught on a particular sequence. For those reasons, he's earned the trust of his coaching staff. Mintyukov is averaging the third-most ice time on the Ducks, he's been quarterbacking Anaheim's top power-play unit since his debut, and he's out there late in games to help the team defend leads or chase a goal.

Mintyukov is just catching fire, too. He's tied with two forwards for the rookie points lead, and seven of his points have come at even strength, good for the fourth most among all NHL defensemen. Even better for the Ducks, six of his points have come in the last six games, which were all victories.

Keep an eye on:

  • Logan Cooley, Coyotes
  • Adam Fantilli, Blue Jackets
  • Ridly Greig, Senators
  • Luke Hughes, Devils
  • Matthew Knies, Maple Leafs
  • Marco Rossi, Wild
  • Joseph Woll, Maple Leafs

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)

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Post Game: Canucks Strike Oil

Sat Shah and Bik Nizzar breakdown the Canucks 6-2 win over the Edmonton OIlers at Rogers Arena. Hear from Head Coach Rick Tocchet (41:47), Phil Di Giuseppe (8:02) and Oilers Head Coach Jay Woodcroft (1:01:04) post game. Analyst Randip Janda also provides his analysis. 

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Sharks GM holds meeting with players amid ‘unacceptable’ start

San Jose Sharks general manager Mike Grier made it clear that even he didn't expect such an abysmal start from his rebuilding team.

"We expected some pain as we go through this situation," Grier said Monday, according to NBC Sports' Sheng Peng. "But the last two games in particular, it hasn't been good enough. The compete, the effort, it's not good enough. It's unacceptable."

The Sharks became the first team in 58 years to surrender double-digit goals in consecutive games when they fell 10-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday and 10-1 to the Vancouver Canucks two nights prior.

The putrid showings spurred Grier to hold a meeting with the players.

"It was one-way. I just felt they needed to hear from me and what I'm seeing and what I expect from them," he explained. "I let them know what was happening was not acceptable."

The Sharks are still seeking their first win amid one of the more nightmarish starts to a season in NHL history. They've mustered just 12 goals while surrendering 54 for a goal differential of minus-42. The Edmonton Oilers own the league's second-worst differential this season at minus-14.

Grier conceded that everyone in the organization has to be better and wouldn't lay all of the blame on head coach David Quinn's shoulders.

"I think the players respect (Quinn), and I think one of his biggest qualities is that he communicates well," he said. "So I think the players know what's expected of them. I think they know where they stand with him."

The executive added he'll be monitoring his team for signs of life in the coming days before determining his next move.

"We'll see how they respond here over the next week, in the next couple of games, as we go forward," he said. "If I don't see what I want to see, we'll be evaluating everything and looking at everything. This can't go on for much longer.

"(If) the response isn't there and I'm not seeing what I need to see, then everything will be evaluated, and I'm sure there'll be some changes made."

The 0-10-1 Sharks' first chance to turn things around will come Tuesday against the Philadelphia Flyers.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Kyle Turris on the Atmosphere of a Canadian Market and Playing With Superstars

Dan and Sat are joined by former NHLer Kyle Turris to talk about what it's like to play in a Canadian market, how Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl dominate in different ways, plus his memories with the Ottawa Senators.

This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The Canucks Defence Stocks Are on the Rise + Don Taylor Joins the Show

Dan and Sat take a look at how the Canucks defensive unit is performing and how it may be rising the ranks around the NHL lately. Also, hear from Don Taylor of Donnie and Dhali on the Canucks' recent play, some wild coach-freak out stories, and much more.

This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

November 6 2023 – Jeff Paterson & Giulio Caravatta

Matt and Blake unpack a huge weekend in Vancouver sports with CFL/MLS playoff games and a statement victory from the Vancouver Canucks. Are the Canucks simply on a heater? Or are they serving notice of being a damn good team? Canucks topics include the continued exploits of Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Thatcher Demko; their standing in the NHL across a variety of categories; the play of Ian Cole; and what this sets up for the rest of the year. On the Lions, the boys discuss Vernon Adams' masterpiece in the West semifinal and the scary collision involving special teamer Jack Hinsperberger. On the Caps, officiating is put under the microscope as the season ends on an indigestible note.

Rink Wide: Vancouver host Jeff Paterson joins to talk about the Canucks' 8-2-1 start. Jeff discusses the big-game feel Saturday -- a first for the quartet of Pettersson, Hughes, Demko and Brock Boeser; the play of Demko is a more limited workload then expected, points in 7 straight games for the first time since Bruce There It Is; points from the defence corps; and whether the Canucks can screw it up from here.

Giulio Caravatta stops by to take a bow after 25 years calling Lions games. He tells us about Adams' need to use his legs, the Lions unflinching comeback after getting down early, and the challenge that awaits in Winnipeg next Saturday.

Plus, we go To The People and hear from listeners on the Canucks, Lions and Caps. Presented by Applewood Auto Group.

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