Matt and Blake discuss Quinn Hughes facing Cale Makar and how both teams are great examples of the modern defence pair. They look at the accolades flowing in for Hughes, from TSN to RDS to statistical comparisons to Bobby Orr. Prince Harry's surprise appearance at Rogers Arena and what that has done for the Invictus Games. Plus Canada's collapse against Jamaica in international soccer.
Frank Corrado joins to compare/contrast Hughes & Makar. Frank comments on whether a defenceman could win the Hart or Art Ross in today's day and age, on how his ex-teammate Sidney Crosby would get up for showdown games against top players or teams, on how Ethan Bear would help Vancouver's defence, and on prospect Hunter Brzustewicz, who is lighting up the OHL.
Wyatt Arndt, The Stanchion, from our partners over at Canucks Army, joins with his particular brand of analysis and humour. From royals at Rogers Arena to inside the squared circle, Wyatt runs a gamut of topics including Tyler Myers' recent form, Nils Höglander, Phil Di Giuseppe and trophies. Presented by Applewood Auto Group.
Wednesday's game between the Chicago Blackhawks and Columbus Blue Jackets involves two clubs at the bottom of the standings, but it also features two electrifying rookies who are eager to go toe-to-toe for the first time at the highest level.
The debut clash between Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli, who were selected first and third overall, respectively, is on the mind of many across the hockey world, including the phenoms themselves.
"It's super exciting," Fantilli said. "We're both competitors. We're both going to play our best tonight. It's gonna be fun. I know I'm excited to play against him."
Bedard and Fantill were the first- and second-ranked North American skaters heading into the 2023 draft. The Blue Jackets finished the 2022-23 season with the highest odds to draft Bedard but fell to third after Chicago won the lottery. The Blackhawks selected Bedard, and Fantilli slid to the Blue Jackets two picks later after the Anaheim Ducks chose Swedish forward Leo Carlsson.
"It should be fun going against him," Bedard added, according to Bally Sports' Dave Maetzold. "Obviously someone that I follow really closely, with his success in his career so far. We're obviously friends as well. It should be fun, it's always fun going against people you know, but it's not me versus him. It's the teams playing tonight."
Both Bedard and Fantilli's NHL careers are off to strong starts. Bedard paces all rookies with 15 points in 16 games, while Fantilli ranks seventh among freshmen with four goals and five assists. However, Chicago and Columbus have struggled to find the win column on the backs of their new talents, ranking 31st and 29th, respectively, in the league standings.
Since Bedard played in the WHL and Fantilli suited up in the NCAA, the pair didn't cross paths on their way to the big leagues. They did, however, take the ice together for Team Canada at the 2023 world juniors, where Bedard won tournament MVP after leading his country to a gold medal.
The NHL is back in full swing following a dark, action-free night. While there's plenty of value on the board, I see the highest reward in backing the top two teams in the Eastern Conference.
The Bruins' loss was disappointing last time out. They blew a lead in the final five seconds of the game before losing to the Lightning in overtime.
I expect them to get things back on track Wednesday night against the Panthers.
These Bruins are elite. They're fantastic at five-on-five, their power play ranks in the top 10 in goals per minute, and their penalty kill is the league's best. Oh, and they have two of the league leaders in Goals Saved Above Expected.
It takes a near-perfect effort to beat Boston and, even then, it's very difficult. There's a reason the Bruins have only dropped one game in regulation.
On the flip side, I've been impressed with the Panthers this season, and getting Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour back from injuries will only raise their ceiling.
Having said that, they're expected to be without Aleksander Barkov in the short term. It's hard to overstate how important he is to the Panthers. Barkov averages more than a point per game while driving play and logging a ton of minutes in every situation. He leads the entire NHL with an average Game Score of 1.87.
The Bruins, fresh off an ugly loss, aren't a team you want to run into without your captain.
The Penguins are a top-heavy team when it comes to generating offense. The top of their lineup is dynamic and productive while the bottom lacks creativity and is essentially in place only to try and prevent goals.
That kind of roster construction can work when everyone is healthy. Injuries are inevitable, though, and the Penguins have run into a few of them.
Rickard Rakell has shockingly not found the back of the net this season - but it's not for a lack of opportunities. He's piled up 46 scoring chances, which ties him with Evgeni Malkin for fourth on the team. He's now sidelined long-term with an injury.
Bryan Rust has produced slightly under a point per game. Sidney Crosby is the only Penguin with more goals than Rust, while Jake Guentzel is the lone man ahead of him in terms of chances. Rust didn't skate this morning, though, and there's a real possibility he'll miss Wednesday's game as well.
Playing without Rakell alone would be problematic. If Rust is out as well, it could be a crucial loss against a Rangers club playing lights out defensively.
Boston is the only team better than Pittsburgh at limiting goals against. But New York is also in the top portion of the league in terms of shot and chance suppression.
I think the Rangers are a tier or two above the Penguins - especially the bruised version. Rust not playing would be preferable, but I see an edge in backing the Rangers on Wednesday regardless.
Bet: Rangers (-115)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.
We have an astronomically large slate Wednesday - 28 of the league's 32 teams will be in action on the eve of a short break for American Thanksgiving.
Let's waste no time in getting to a few plays that pop off the page.
Adam Fantilli over 2.5 shots
Fantilli is red-hot on home ice. He recorded 44 attempts and 26 shots on target over his past six games in Columbus.
With an average of 7.3 attempts per contest, it should be no surprise Fantilli has gone over his shot total in five of six games.
There's every reason to believe he'll stay hot Wednesday night against the Blackhawks. They're horrendous defensively and concede more shots per game than every team but the Sharks and Islanders.
They also allow well over 14 shots per game to opposing centers - the highest mark in the NHL. Fantilli plays in the middle of the second line and sees time with the man advantage, so he's a prime candidate to make noise against Chicago.
There could also be a little extra pep in Fantilli's step going up against Connor Bedard, who was selected atop his draft class.
Odds: -122 (playable to -140)
Jack Hughes over 3.5 shots
Hughes picked up right where he left off after returning from injury. He made his comeback against a very good Rangers team and showed absolutely no sign of rust or lingering ailments. In that contest, he recorded 13 shot attempts, eight shots on goal, and a pair of points.
I'm expecting another active offensive performance against the Red Wings, who average more than 30 shots against per game. He should generate plenty of shots at five-on-five - especially with Timo Meier, who's a bit of a shot hog, sidelined.
Additionally, only three teams have taken penalties at a higher rate than Detroit. The Devils' power play, meanwhile, is clicking at a historically good rate, and Hughes is the guy facilitating everything. He'll benefit from those extra power-play opportunities.
Odds: -140 (playable to -150)
Filip Forsberg over 3.5 shots
Forsberg's played nine home games this season and registered at least four shots on goal in eight of them. The exception came against the Maple Leafs when Forsberg finished with three shots and missed a couple of opportunities to get a fourth.
He isn't just grinding out wins by the skin of his teeth. Forsberg routinely goes over his shot total, averaging five on a whopping 9.1 attempts per game.
Predators head coach Andrew Brunette has Forsberg regularly flirting with 20 minutes of ice time. That wasn't the case a season ago, as former head coach John Hynes had the Swede closer to the 18-minute mark.
For an efficient shot-creator, extra ice time makes a world of difference. We're seeing that in Forsberg's remarkably high shot outputs - especially when he's benefiting from cushier matchups on home ice.
Although the Flames are fairly good at even-strength shot suppression, their penalty kill gives up a lot. They also allow a couple more shots per game on the road.
Forsberg found success against strong teams like the Avalanche and Canucks. It should continue versus the mediocre Flames.
Odds: -134 (playable to -150)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.
This reckoning has been on the horizon for a while: 2024 is setting up to be the year the decades-old models of delivering sports broadcasts to people's homes undergoes a stark change.
Sinclair Broadcast Group announced in a Texas court in mid-November its intent to shut down its bankrupt subsidiary, Diamond Sports Group, which operates 17 regional Bally Sports networks across the U.S., at the end of 2024. "Diamond’s business is going to go away," Sinclair lawyer David Seligman told the court.
Diamond is the largest operator of regional sports networks (RSNs) in America, holding local broadcast rights for 39 teams in the NBA, MLB, and NHL. That's 42% of all live local sports TV inventory, not counting national rights. It filed for bankruptcy protection in March when it could no longer pay interest on its $9 billion in remaining debt from the purchase of 22 Fox Sports RSNs in 2019.
While Diamond is trying to stay afloat for another year, the math and consumers' cord-cutting habits are working against its survival.
At its peak in 2014, there were 100.5 million cable households in the U.S. At the end of the second quarter of this year, there were an estimated 61 million. This past summer, for the first time in the TV era, fewer than half of U.S. households watched TV via broadcast or paid cable.
In the third quarter, Comcast, the largest cable provider in the U.S., reported it shed 2.1 million of its cable subscribers - 12.5% - in the past year.
Earlier this November, the NBA struck a deal to have Diamond relinquish its outstanding local rights for 15 teams at the end of this season. In return, the NBA and those teams agreed to lower payments from Diamond for this season. The NHL's pursuing a similar deal. Diamond is attempting to keep 10 of its remaining 12 MLB clubs for 2024, and one industry source said relinquishing those rights after next season is on the table.
Diamond's struggles are an inflection point for live sports TV. It seems to be a matter of when and not if the entire RSN model falters. Earlier this year, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), the No. 2 RSN player, announced plans to sell its remaining RSNs by the end of this year.
Nick Laham / Getty Images
It was an alarming acceleration to many equities analysts like Alex Morris, who owns TSOH Investment Research. Morris researches media companies like Disney and Comcast.
"I do wonder how much this is going to change, or has already been changing, what it means to be a sports fan," Morris told theScore. "How much are people going to seek out games when they can go watch a new TV show or movie on their own schedule, versus chasing down some local RSN, who wants you to pay $19.99 a month.
"The world has just kind of changed, particularly for sports with an excessive amount of (games) and where most regular-season games are of limited importance to the postseason."
By the end of 2024, there will likely be a wave of live TV sports rights hitting the market not seen since the New York Islanders pioneered the cable model in the early 1980s. Additionally, the NBA's national broadcast rights end after the 2024-25 season, and several networks and streamers are lining up to get a piece of that valuable property.
Will tech giants take over? Will direct-to-consumer models be viable? Can something like the cable bundle be recreated so teams in the same market are not competing against each other for subscriptions?
Those questions will play out across three leagues, and they have wide-ranging implications for how we watch, and for the bottom lines of those franchises.
"Follow the technology. Technology doesn't go backwards," said Greg Bouris, director of the undergraduate sports management program at Adelphi University, who previously worked for SportsChannel and for pro teams. "We watched the evolution of this industry grow from newspapers, to radio, to TV, to cable TV. And that was the one that changed everything, that placed the industry on a whole other trajectory: regional sports networks.
"It's going to be a different world."
The NBA gets the first crack at determining what that world looks like, with its national rights up for bids and half its teams' local rights being reclaimed from Diamond following the season.
It'll be the first time an array of rights for one league come to market since streaming overtook cable as the primary way consumers watch video.
"It gives the NBA more flexibility," Bouris said. "Having teams have their local rights expire at the same time their national rights (expire) gives them at least more decision-making power in how they want to dole out those rights."
On the national side, the NBA is reportedly looking for two to three partners and is interested in streaming platforms. The league's current rights holders, ESPN and TNT, have an exclusive negotiating window that opens in March, but tech giants like Apple and Amazon are also reportedly interested.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy. Thos Robinson / Getty Images
The tech giants' robust balance sheets give them an edge over traditional TV networks. The NBA could become the first major North American pro sports league to have a majority of its national rights streamed.
Perhaps what's more interesting - and troubling for leagues - is what happens to local rights, which face far more uncertainty over how they'll be distributed and who'll pay for them, Morris said.
Bill Koenig, the NBA’s top media executive, told Sports Business Journal the league will pursue a "hybrid" approach with teams being freed from Diamond.
The plan would entail selling traditional linear cable rights in markets impacted by the RSN implosion and then packaging all the streaming rights to sell to one company.
A similar approach was employed by MLB in 2023. The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks were forced to find new cable homes in their respective markets in the middle of the season when Diamond relinquished the rights. Their games were also streamed direct-to-consumer. Fans had the option to buy in-market Padres and D-Backs games for $20 a month on MLB.TV.
Elsa / Getty Images
MLB guaranteed the clubs 80% of revenues they were set to receive via TV in case there was a shortfall, and commissioner Rob Manfred said recently no such financial support was needed.
However, MLB is no longer offering a backstop guarantee of revenues, and Manfred said the league is prepared and able to take over broadcasts of up to 16 clubs in 2024.
A hybrid approach can work in the short term because it allows ratings to remain stable with the mix of viewers in linear TV and streaming.
The good news for baseball is there were 402 million combined viewers (96,000 per broadcast) tuning into MLB games on cable in 2022, according to viewership data obtained by theScore - more than double the total local viewership of the NBA on cable.
The not-so-great news: fewer people are paying for cable TV packages, which means there are fewer subscribers paying for bundles that may contain channels like an RSN they don't watch. That was the magic of cable bundles for a long time. There was no itemized list in a consumer's bill showing they paid, say, $7 for Bally Sports.
Those subsidizing viewers are departing and those who remain are aging and taking on a greater share of the bill, all while programming costs and rights fees have continued to increase.
Morris has tracked Comcast programming costs for a decade. In that time, the cost of content increased from $30 per subscriber in 2014 to $75 this year.
"If we priced paid TV at $75, Comcast is just covering their programming costs, let alone everything that is involved for running the MVPD (multichannel video programming distributor) business," Morris said. "It just speaks to that continuing trend, and it becomes a cycle of: are you willing to pay $60 to watch your favorite sports team? How about $75 or $80? How about $100? The numbers just keep moving the wrong direction, particularly when compared to what you can get with some combination of DTC (direct-to-consumer) services at a much lower all-in price." (Like ESPN+, Max with BR Sports, Peacock, and Paramount+.)
The hybrid model can sustain such a cycle for only so long.
The implosion of RSN models leads to one very important question regarding local broadcasts.
"You have a question of how many fans are die-hard versus how many are not," Morris said. "If you force people to actively choose to seek this stuff out, spend a lot of money, you're going to really screen for the die-hards."
Logan Riely / NBA / Getty Images
The Rockets and Astros in Houston teamed up to buy AT&T SportsNet Southwest from WBD and rebranded it Space City Home Network. The clubs now have to figure out how to replace the combined $120 million in rights fees they received from WBD.
Consider the Padres' situation. After MLB took over the club's broadcasts on May 30 when Diamond relinquished rights, 18,000 in-market subscriptions were purchased to stream Padres games via MLB.TV.
While that number would be higher if games weren't also being offered on a specially created local cable/satellite channel, Morris and Bouris both said we're learning how difficult it is to convert cable subscribers into buyers of DTC platforms specifically for sports.
Diamond testified in bankruptcy court in May that it had only 200,000 total streaming subscribers across all its in-market teams.
But if linear cable disappeared tomorrow, it's difficult to believe streaming Padres games would come close to matching the revenue generated from the 20-year, $1.2-billion contract the Padres had with Diamond.
"I don't see anybody, really, coming out and telling me how to replace it," Bouris said of RSN cable revenues.
Manfred conceded to reporters during the postseason that streaming "doesn’t have today the same robust economics that the cable bundle provided as an exclusive source of distribution. But my own view of the world is … the (cable) distribution may be smaller going forward, and we’re gonna put with it that digital option that gives people more flexibility, more reach, and is better for fans overall."
MLB teams are responding to that uncertainty this offseason with some of their roster decisions. Cleveland Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said part of the reason the club designated Cal Quantrill for assignment (and then traded him to Colorado) is that it's leery of paying him an estimated $6 million in arbitration because of concerns about TV revenues.
Tom Szczerbowski / Getty Images
The Minnesota Twins, another Diamond team whose local TV future is up in the air, stated they'll operate with a smaller payroll next year despite reaching the playoffs this year.
There are some players who believe there's too much doom and gloom in the media about TV revenues, and that MLB clubs are using Diamond's implosion as cover to reduce spending. While it's difficult to know if teams are overstating the issue for 2024, the uncertainty about what the future looks like is real.
Baseball is particularly vulnerable in the future of sports TV, because its national rights don't command nearly the same dollars as the NFL or NBA.
The NFL's national rights went for 11 years and $110 billion in 2021. Amazon is paying $1 billion annually to stream Thursday Night Football, suggesting there's plenty of streaming money for the league should it need to shift more games there.
The NBA is seeking $75 billion from its next multi-year national rights deals, a significant jump from the nine-year, $24-billion deals that expire at the end of next season.
MLB's current deals cover seven years and combine for $12.5 billion.
One rival league executive told me MLB faces two issues: its product has become more regional, and it lacks star power that bidders for national rights desire.
MLB is much more driven by volume of TV inventory, and Morris said that's challenging in this new era.
Justin Casterline / Getty
"The leagues with a massive volume of games are losing, in my opinion, to other forms of entertainment, time consumption," Morris said. "So how do you price and package that to drive a lot of viewership and interest?
"It makes me wonder if you are better off selling a higher-priced - say, around $100 per season - service to super fans, or, if you're better off with a model like what ESPN+ has with the NHL for its out-of-market games. All 26 million ESPN+ customers have access to the out-of-market package without paying an incremental fee, which likely helps with viewership.
"Overall, it's a difficult question to answer, particularly when trying to balance the dual objectives of viewership fandom and financial considerations. The competition for eyeballs is becoming more intense over time."
Ideally there will be more concentration on platforms, too. Morris notes there was a five-day stretch last season where five New York Yankees games were broadcast on four different platforms.
Ideally, Bouris said, a third party would step in and cut MLB guaranteed checks for all those local rights and end regional blackouts.
Morris and Bouris both think one plausible long-term home at the moment for much of these live sports rights is Google's YouTubeTV, which, like Hulu, is a streaming version of cable that carries many of the same channels. YouTube also recently ventured into live sports in a big way by purchasing the NFL Sunday Ticket out-of-market package. And unlike Netflix, YouTube generates most of its revenue through advertising instead of subscriptions, perhaps better positioning it for live sports.
It helps that Google's parent company Alphabet holds the most cash ($120 billion) and least debt ($13 billion) of any company in the live sports game.
SOPA Images / LightRocket / Getty Images
Morris said delivering better advertising monetization will be key for the new model. It can be a long-term tailwind for all live TV sports. Not only are more viewers transitioning to streaming over time but ad dollars are following them. Ad dollars spent on so-called connected TV have risen from $6 billion in 2019 to $20 billion this year to a projected $41 billion by 2027.
"That competition to win subscribers has ratcheted up content cost," Trade Desk CEO Jeff Green said in the company's recent third-quarter conference call. His company helps connect ad buyers with ad inventory. "Higher content costs mean raising prices or finding some way to raise revenue per user if media companies were going to continue to feed their content engines with a similar rate as before. Every premium video content company from Disney to Paramount to NBCU and Sky to Netflix have changed pricing and embraced advertising.
"More and more live sports inventory, perhaps the crown jewel for most streaming providers, is opening up for programmatic (ad) buying on our platform."
The ad tailwind could be massive for live sports and streamers in the coming years.
While there figures to be short-term economic pain for some markets and leagues, there is long-term opportunity. After all, pro sports leagues hold monopolies on fan interest and the goodwill and nostalgia built up among supporters.
What that future looks like will play out in the coming months and years, but there's no doubt we're accelerating to a new world of live TV sports.
Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.
Dan and Sat are joined by Irfaan Gaffar to talk about the latest on the Elias Pettersson contract negotiations, who the Canucks could target in a trade, and more. Plus, The Athletic's Shayna Goldman stops by to talk about Quinn Hughes, the comparisons to Cale Makar, and other headlines from around the NHL.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Dan and Sat discuss the dominance of JT Miller this season, compare his numbers to some great power centres of the last couple decades, and how Miller's game has progressed.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Matt and Blake talk about the Canucks' 3-1 win over San Jose, whether Quinn Hughes can top Cale Makar as the league's top defenceman, learning to win low-scoring games and the royals on hand at Rogers Arena. The guys also go over the Tim Peel-Mark Spector feud, and the Grey Cup audience, as well as the Monday Night Football showdown.
John Shannon stops by to discuss Hughes' genius and Rick Tocchet's work behind the Canucks bench. John tells us why the NHL is going dark two nights this week, why the Stockholm games weren't nationally televised, the Pacific Division strength, the future of East Van's Milan Lucic, and how close the Blue Jackets are to packing it in for this season and trading defencemen.
Seahawks beat writer Gregg Bell stops by to discuss the big Thanksgiving Day showdown between the Seahawks and 49ers. Gregg tells us what separates these rivals, evaluates how healthy quarterback Geno Smith will be, and what the Hawks need to do to catch up to San Fran. Presented by Applewood Auto Group.
