Flames make 35-year commitment to stay in Calgary with new arena deal

The Calgary Flames' new arena project is on - and it comes with a promise that the club will stay put for more than three decades.

Alberta premier Danielle Smith, Calgary mayor Jyoti Gondek, and representatives from the Flames and their parent company, the Calgary Sports and Entertainment Corporation, made it official Thursday.

Gondek said the CSEC, the city of Calgary, the province of Alberta, and the Calgary Stampede have all signed final agreements on the event center plans, according to The Athletic's Julian McKenzie.

The Flames committed to remaining in Calgary for 35 years, according to TSN's Salim Nadim Valji.

The project, which was originally agreed upon in principle in April, will involve the construction of an entire entertainment district that includes the Flames' arena. It will cost $1.2 billion, with the provincial government spending $330 million. The city's contribution wasn't announced Thursday, but in April it was pegged at $537.3 million, with the CSEC paying the remaining $356 million.

No provincial tax dollars will be used, said Devin Dreeshen, the minister of transportation and economic corridors, according to McKenzie.

Construction is likely to begin next year, and Dreeshen hopes it'll be completed by 2026 or 2027, at which point the Saddledome will be demolished. The new building is expected to seat between 18,000 and 18,400 fans, which would be smaller than the current arena's capacity of 19,289.

The Flames had a previous deal in place for a new arena in 2019, but it fell apart two years later after the cost increased by over $50 million.

The Saddledome is the second-oldest current arena in the NHL, having opened in 1983. Among active facilities in the league, only Madison Square Garden in New York City has been around longer.

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Ducks sign Drysdale to 3-year deal worth reported $6.9 million

The Anaheim Ducks signed defenseman Jamie Drysdale to a three-year contract, the team announced Thursday.

The pact carries an average annual value of $2.3 million, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reports.

A torn labrum limited Drysdale to only eight games last season. The 21-year-old was a restricted free agent with no arbitration rights and wasn't eligible for an offer sheet due to a lack of professional seasons.

Drysdale, the 2020 sixth overall pick, tallied four goals and 32 points in 81 contests in 2021-22.

Anaheim signed its other restricted free agent, Trevor Zegras, to a three-year contract with a $5.75-million cap hit on Oct. 2.

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24 predictions for the 2023-24 NHL season

The NHL offseason served up countless headlines, from Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson's trade to veteran coach Mike Babcock's firing before training camp. What should we make of all the change? Here are 24 predictions for 2023-24 - some long shots, others totally realistic, lots in the middle.

1. Matthew Tkachuk turns top five into top six

The order is debatable beyond No. 1, but Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Cale Makar, and Leon Draisaitl are the consensus top five players on the planet. Tkachuk, already a top-10 guy, is more than capable of elevating his game to a level where he turns the top five into a top six by season's end. The Panthers' playoff run revealed the ultra-smart Tkachuk is on a steep upward trajectory - even after back-to-back seasons of 100-plus points and stellar defensive metrics. Last year's Hart Trophy finalist nod isn't the agitating, play-driving winger's ceiling. Winning the Hart is Tkachuk's ceiling, and it isn't out of the realm of possibility in 2023-24.

2. Sabres end historic drought

Kevin Hoffman / Getty Images

After 12 lost years, this is the season the Sabres snap the longest postseason drought in NHL history. It's the next logical step for a squad with the bones of a future Stanley Cup contender. I loved the trade-deadline bet on Jordan Greenway and the summer signings of Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson. Those three players add balance to an offense-focused group, while rookie goalie Devon Levi looks like the real deal. Last season was too early for Buffalo to throw a bunch of money around midseason, but it isn't early anymore, and the club happens to hold $8.8 million in cap space.

3. Connor Brown is league's best bargain

Excluding players on entry-level contracts, Buffalo's Tage Thompson had the lowest cost-per-point last season at $14,893 per point, according to CapFriendly. Brown's set up to steal the title from Thompson (whose salary is jumping from $1.4 million to $7.1 million) after landing with the Oilers on a one-year, $775,000 deal. An injury limited Brown to four games in 2022-23, but the 29-year-old is fully healthy and may land a spot on former OHL teammate McDavid's line. Brown, who recorded a career-high 43 points for Ottawa four seasons ago, is a poor man's Zach Hyman - relentless on the puck, tough around the net, a sharp hockey mind, and responsible defensively. Brown's biggest contender for "best bargain" is probably Blake Wheeler, who's making $800,000 for the Rangers after a Jets buyout.

4. Jeremy Swayman takes over Bruins' crease

Boston Globe / Getty Images

Linus Ullmark enjoyed a season for the ages last year, posting a .938 save percentage and saving 38.1 goals above expected (per Evolving-Hockey) in 49 games en route to the Vezina Trophy. Compiling similar numbers will be nearly impossible, especially with elite stoppers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci no longer lining up at center. Swayman, meanwhile, was on a starter's trajectory before Ullmark arrived in Boston. The 24-year-old American is fresh off a fine year himself and should be given every opportunity to surpass Ullmark as the go-to netminder in a 1A-1B setup. Ullmark trending downward while Swayman has more to prove sets the stage for a role shuffle.

5. UFA class (for once) lives up to the hype

There's a pattern to how we discuss the upcoming unrestricted free-agent class: we get excited about the quantity or quality (or both) in the fall, half the interesting names sign extensions, and by July 1, the hype is all but gone. Well, I think the 2024 UFA class will buck this trend. Players have strategically set themselves up for hefty paydays as the salary cap jumps from $83.5 million to $87.7 million in 2024-25 and $92.1 million in 2025-26. Steven Stamkos, Connor Hellebuyck, Elias Lindholm, Mark Scheifele, William Nylander, Jake Guentzel, and Brandon Montour headline the class. The second tier is strong, too, with Jonathan Marchessault, Sam Reinhart, Noah Hanifin, Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, and Brett Pesce leading the way.

6. Berube is first coach or GM fired

Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Technically, Mike Babcock already claimed this unwanted prize. But we're not going to count his firing forced resignation since it happened prior to Blue Jackets training camp. Berube, the league's fifth-longest tenured coach, is ostensibly on the hot seat in St. Louis. The good vibes generated by the Blues' magical 2018 Cup win are gone, and longtime general manager Doug Armstrong's next move may be to can the coach. In the past, Berube hasn't seen eye-to-eye with the club's star players, and the roster seems to be in transition in general. Of note: Ownership won't be on the hook for too much money if the Blues let Berube go soon. He reportedly makes $3.5 million a year and is under contract for one more season.

7. League-wide scoring steadies

The NHL's scoring rate increased in four of the past five seasons, with 2022-23's 6.4 goals per game counting as the highest average since 1993-94. I expect scoring averages to stabilize this season, but the rate will finish around 6.4 again because the NHL is cyclical, and coaches now have sufficient video and data on modern offenses. Led by the goaltenders, defenses are finally ready to push back in a discernible way. To be clear: I'm not predicting a notable dip in scoring, or the end of an entertaining, offense-first era. But it feels like the timing is right for the year-over-year climb in goals to cool off ever so slightly.

8. Quinton Byfield breaks through

Andy Devlin / Getty Images

Word out of Kings camp is Byfield's found his swagger. The 6-foot-5, 220-pound forward is competing with the confidence of a second overall pick and will likely spend the full season in the NHL for the first time. Now, here's what a breakout will look like for Byfield: about 15-20 goals (previous high of five) and 30-35 assists (previous high of 19) for around 50 points. The 21-year-old is especially effective when he's hard on the forecheck and firing shots off quickly, and he found promising chemistry with veteran studs Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe late last season.

9. Full steam ahead for next World Cup

Let's be optimistic about the future of international hockey for a moment. The plan right now is for NHLers to compete in a scaled-down World Cup of Hockey in February 2025, then participate in the 2026 Olympics. The World Cup won't be perfect - nothing beats the Olympics, and with Russia's status up in the air, the event won't be a traditional eight-team tournament. Nevertheless, it could be sensational. The 2016 World Cup is the lone time McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, and their Gen Z peers played in a best-on-best format - and even then, they were part of a gimmicky under-23 team. Here's to finalizing 2025 and getting back on the right path.

10. Vasilevskiy injury sinks Lightning

Andy Devlin / Getty Images

Tampa Bay received the biggest blow of the preseason last week: superstar Andrei Vasilevskiy is out for the first two months of the regular season after undergoing back surgery. Jonas Johansson, a 28-year-old journeyman who's appeared in 35 NHL games, is now atop the goaltending depth chart, which is wild (we thought Johansson backing up Vasilevskiy was suboptimal). Unless the Lightning get extremely creative, their options to bring in outside help are limited. They're up against the cap and barely have any draft capital to burn. The Atlantic Division remains highly competitive, so the Vasilevskiy injury, especially when mixed with depth depletion at forward, is a ruinous development. It'll sink their season.

11. Jets re-sign one pending UFA star, trade the other

Winnipeg's a bubble playoff team as currently constructed. If the Jets make it, nobody will be terribly surprised. Ditto if they don't. In other words, the club is in the league's mushy middle, which isn't ideal given 30-year-olds Scheifele and Hellebuyck are both pending UFAs. It'd be unwise for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff to sign both players to long-term extensions - not because they're unworthy of lengthy deals, but because the Jets need to fully turn the page. Buying out Wheeler and trading Pierre-Luc Dubois isn't a big enough change. I think Cheveldayoff should trade Scheifele and Hellebuyck midseason. What he'll probably do instead: try to sign both, find out one of them probably isn't interested, and be forced to make a trade.

12. Penguins return to playoffs, fall short of conference finals

Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Intrigue is high around the Penguins after new GM Kyle Dubas landed Norris winner Karlsson in the trade of the summer while also reeling in secondary scoring help (Reilly Smith), a defensively minded center (Lars Eller), and a useful defenseman (Ryan Graves). If the veteran-laden Pens can stay healthy, they should have no trouble securing an East playoff spot. However, even with Karlsson joining Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Co., Pittsburgh isn't a top-tier Metropolitan team. Getting past the Devils and Hurricanes will be a tall task.

13. Hischier wins first Selke of post-Bergeron world

Bergeron's retirement means he'll finally release his grip on the Selke Trophy. Nico Hischier, who finished second in voting last year, is the candidate to circle in pen. He's the chief defensive center on a Cup-contending team. He leads the Devils' top-five penalty kill. His metrics are tremendous across the board, from traditional to shot-based to tracking. The definition of the award focuses on a forward who "best excels in the defensive aspects of the game," but voters typically loop in two-way ability - and Hischier checks that box as well (80-point guy). A side prediction for the hell of it: Elias Pettersson and Roope Hintz will be Selke runners-up.

14. Blue Jackets' PP goes from bottom 10 to top 10

Kirk Irwin / Getty Images

I refuse to believe the Blue Jackets' underwhelming 2022-23 power-play percentage - 18.3%, or 3 percentage points below the league average - will carry over. Not with new assistant coach and Hockey Hall of Famer Mark Recchi at the whiteboard. Not with Zach Werenski's quarterbacking ability, Patrik Laine's and Kirill Marchenko's booming shots, and Adam Fantilli and Johnny Gaudreau's zone entries and seam passes. There's a ton of untapped potential here, as only Gaudreau played 60 or more games last year (Fantilli was in college). I wouldn't bet on Columbus earning a postseason spot, but its power play - previously ranked 26th in the NHL - can crack the top 10.

15. Hurricanes win Presidents' Trophy

Carolina's floor has been quite high over Rod Brind'Amour's tenure. At worst, the Canes entered all five seasons as a playoff-caliber team and went on to either meet or exceed expectations. Now, after supplementing a well-built roster with Dmitry Orlov, Michael Bunting, and Tony DeAngelo, the club's ceiling is also quite high. The Hurricanes will pile up regular-season points because they're talented, deep, and play with structure. Then, if all goes to plan, they'll make noise in the playoffs. Carolina will be the kind of Cup favorite that won't sneak up on anybody.

16. Devils - not Oilers - lead NHL in goals

Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

You already know I'm high on the Devils if you read my series slotting all 32 teams into tiers, and their goal-scoring depth is a huge reason why. From Jack Hughes (who quietly bagged 43 last year) to 30-goal guys Hischier and Jesper Bratt, to Tyler Toffoli, Timo Meier, Dawson Mercer, and Ondrej Palat, there's no shortage of proven finishers. Other weapons include rookie winger Alexander Holtz and bottom-six center Michael McLeod, as well as blue-liners Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes. In 2022-23, the Oilers torched the NHL for 325 tallies - 20 more than any other team. The Devils will be this year's Oilers.

17. William Nylander has huge year, walks in free agency

I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know if Nylander will re-sign with the Maple Leafs or head elsewhere next summer. But if the pending UFA sticks at center, feasts on inferior competition throughout the regular season, and impresses in the playoffs, he may price himself out of Toronto. Centers are typically paid more than wingers, so if Nylander can replicate his output from a year ago (40 goals, 47 assists), he'll be in line for a massive pay bump, perhaps in the neighborhood of $10 million annually over seven or eight years. Nylander says he wants to stay in Toronto, and the Leafs say they want him back, yet starting the year without an extension keeps the door wide open for him to leave. You have to wonder, too, if Nylander is content being the third-best forward on his team. Does he want to try being No. 1 or No. 2 on another squad?

18. Somebody scores 60

Jeff Bottari / Getty Images

Scoring 60 goals in the NHL is an extremely rare feat. Well, it used to be, anyway. Three of the five 60-goal seasons this century have come in the past two years, with Matthews bagging 60 in 73 games in 2021-22 and David Pastrnak (61 in 82) and McDavid (64 in 82) reaching the milestone last season. I don't think the fun stops this year. To me, there are five legitimate threats to crack 60: Matthews, McDavid, Pastrnak, Draisaitl, and Mikko Rantanen. All of them are still in their 20s, in their primes, and one will blast off.

19. Harley, Lundkvist become Stars' answer

There aren't many franchises with more roster security than Dallas. GM Jim Nill has assembled a star-studded forward group to go along with a franchise goalie and franchise defenseman. The Stars' only glaring issue is blue-line depth beyond Miro Heiskanen. Jani Hakanpaa, Ryan Suter, Esa Lindell, Thomas Harley, and Nils Lundkvist are all NHL-caliber defensemen - which is fantastic - but where are the difference-makers? Veterans Suter, Hakanpaa, and Lindell are what they are at this point. So it's up to Harley, 22, and Lundkvist, 23, to level up. Harley was excellent in the playoffs and Lundkvist added 15 pounds of muscle over the offseason. Yeah, one will elevate.

20. Bedard leads Chicago in scoring, doesn't win Calder

Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

We won't know for sure until we see him skate in regular-season games, but Connor Bedard looks like he may be the Blackhawks' best player. (That's equal parts a compliment to Bedard and an insult to the roster as constructed.) Despite little help, I'm betting Bedard finishes with a team-leading 70 points. He'll be nominated for the Calder Trophy but will lose out to a player with legitimate support. Someone in the field - Logan Cooley, Fantilli, Levi, Hughes, or Matthew Knies - will have a better case.

21. Macklin Celebrini goes wire to wire as top 2024 draft prospect

The 2024 draft class doesn't have a Bedard-type prospect, but Boston University center Macklin Celebrini is still worth tanking for. The 17-year-old from Vancouver has everything going for him: He's a dual threat on offense, he gives a damn about defense, he has size, and he's clutch. Celebrini has company, though, as part of a Big Three featuring goal-scoring American winger Cole Eiserman and playmaking Russian winger Ivan Demidov. There'll be plenty of debates about who should go first overall, but Celebrini's primed to go wire to wire as the class' premier prospect given his tools, size, and position.

22. Patrick Kane signs with Avalanche

Dave Sandford / Getty Images

One of the marquee names on the 2023 UFA market remains unsigned. Kane, recovering from offseason hip surgery, reportedly won't start talking to interested GMs for another few weeks. There are no obvious fits, given Kane probably prefers to join a highly competitive team and virtually every noteworthy club is capped out. Buffalo's believed to be in the hunt, while Carolina, Vegas, Toronto, Dallas, and Boston register as other potential landing spots. I predict he'll end up in Colorado. The Avalanche have a winning pedigree, Kane can fly under the radar due to market size and the star power already on the roster, and he can fill in for sidelined winger Gabriel Landeskog (before Landeskog "pulls a Kucherov" and returns for the playoffs). The Avs need to shed money to bring "Showtime" aboard, and I say they do it.

23. Ovi drops out of Rocket contention

This will be the year Alex Ovechkin noticeably slides down the goal-scoring leaderboard, but he'll still maintain a respectable pace in pursuit of Wayne Gretzky's all-time record (he starts the season 72 goals behind Gretzky's 894). No longer at the peak of his powers and coming off a 42-goal campaign, I think Ovechkin drops into the 35-40 range. He's unbelievable - trust me, I want him to snipe 50 - but Father Time comes for everybody, and the Capitals captain is 38 and in his 19th season. If Ovechkin reaches 40 goals, he'll have his sights set on passing Gretzky in 2024-25, the second-last year of his deal.

24. Oilers beat Hurricanes in Cup Final

Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

This year's Cup-contending field is deep - a handful of teams in each conference have a realistic chance of making the final. But I predict Edmonton and Carolina survive the gauntlet of the first three rounds and meet for a rematch of the 2006 final, with the Oilers crowned champs this time around. Edmonton's roster isn't perfect, but GM Ken Holland made enough improvements to give McDavid and Draisaitl ample support - and we all know what Connor and Leon are capable of in high-pressure moments. It all comes together for Nos. 97 and 29 in 2023-24.

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).

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NHL betting how-to: Understanding moneylines to find value

It's not as dramatic as the popular 2015 Netflix documentary "Making a Murderer." Instead of exposing the police and judicial system in rural Wisconsin, we're merely going to bring to light how an NHL moneyline is made.

We started the NFL season with a similar exercise, but football is predicated on point spread wagers, while NHL betting is done primarily on the moneyline. It's more difficult to assign odds for a team to win in hockey than it is to guess what a point spread should be in a football game.

What's behind a moneyline?

Moneylines are a function of win probability. If your team is -200 to win a game, it is deemed 66.6% likely to win since you have to put up $200 to win $100. If you think there's better than a two-thirds chance the favorite is victorious, the team would be worth a bet. The opponent would likely be around +170 on the moneyline or 37% likely to win. If you think the likelihood of winning is closer to 50/50, it's worth a bet on the underdog.

*If you're doing the math and realizing that the two percentages above don't equal 100%, that excess percentage is the sportsbook's rake, otherwise known as "vig" or "juice," and is how sportsbooks make money.

What goes into team ratings?

You can guess the percentage likelihood a team wins each game, or you can be more informed. Moneyline odds are created off a team's market rating, with a starting point of how likely the team is to beat an average NHL team.

There are three main pieces of information you can use to rate teams.

  1. Last season's results/metrics
  2. The regular season point total betting market
  3. Current season results/metrics

Obviously, with days to go before the regular season starts, we have no information for the third piece. As the season progresses and more data points are accrued, that category can become more important and take up a larger piece of the information pie.

Last season's metrics are relevant because they're tangible on-ice results. Most teams see them change each season, but last year, only the Blues, Ducks, Blue Jackets and Blackhawks saw their underlying metrics crater. On the positive side, the Hurricanes, Devils, Maple Leafs, Lightning and Kraken had massive upward changes in how they played at even strength from 2021-22 to 2022-23.

What's an average team?

In football, baseball, or basketball, an average team is expected to finish at .500. In the NHL, because three points are assigned for a game that goes to overtime, that number is weirder. Last year, the average NHL team accrued 91.43 points. In the Eastern Conference, you needed 92 points to make the playoffs. In the Western Conference, meanwhile, 92 points resulted in barely missing the playoffs because there were three teams with 60 points or less, which boosted everyone else's total on that side of the league.

To rate each team relative to the league average, we look at a handful of sportsbooks' regular season point total markets and take the average for each team. Carolina led the way with a projected point total of 107.5.

We'll then take each team's total and divide it by 91.43. Here's how that looks for the Hurricanes:

  • 107.5 / 91.42 = 1.176

An average team - like the Jets or Senators - is lined at 91.5 and a 1.00 rating. So, the Hurricanes have been assessed as 17.6% above average, while the Sharks' super-low point total of 66.5 has them 27.2% below a league-average team.

Translating regular season points into market ratings

Team Regular Season
Point Total
Rating
Hurricanes 107.5 +17.6%
Devils 107 +17.0%
Avalanche 106.5 +16.5%
Maple Leafs 106.5 +16.5%
Oilers 106 +16.0%
Stars 105.5 +15.4%
Golden Knights 102.5 +12.1%
Rangers 102 +11.6%
Kings 100.5 +10.0%
Bruins 100 +9.4%
Panthers 98.5 +7.8%
Penguins 97.5 +6.7%
Wild 96.5 +5.6%
Lightning 95.5 +4.5%
Flames 94.5 +3.4%
Kraken 93 +1.8%
Sabres 92.5 +1.2%
Islanders 92.5 +1.2%
Jets 91.5 0.0%
Senators 91.5 0.0%
Canucks 89 -2.6%
Predators 87 -4.8%
Red Wings 85.5 -6.5%
Capitals 85 -7.0%
Blues 84.5 -7.5%
Coyotes 76.5 -16.3%
Flyers 75.5 -17.4%
Blue Jackets 73.5 -19.6%
Canadiens 72 -21.2%
Blackhawks 71 -22.3%
Ducks 67.5 -26.1%
Sharks 66.5 -27.2%

Creating moneylines

Here's the math portion of the program.

Now that we have each team's percentage against an average team, how do we compare them to each other?

  1. Let's use the season-opening matchup between the Predators (-4.8) and Lightning (+4.5), take the rating difference (9.3) between the two teams, and apply it so that the difference is reflected across a 50/50 proposition:
    • Lightning's chance of winning: 0.5 + (9.3 / 2) = 0.546
    • Predators' chance of winning: 1 - 0.5465 = 0.456
  2. Since these games are not played on neutral ice, a home-ice advantage should be applied. Last season, home teams went 687-625 or 52.3%. That's actually lower than the previous season of 704-608 of 53.6%. If we split the difference over 2,624 games, home-ice advantage has meant 3% to the home team's win probability (WP).
    • Lightning's chance of winning: 0.546 + 0.03 = 0.576
    • Predators' chance of winning: 1 - 0.576 = 0.424

At that point, using a standard win probability to moneyline calculator found online, we know that a fair price for the Lightning is -136 and the Predators +136.

Here's how that game breaks down relative to the currently available line:

TEAM FAIR PRICE  WIN PROB. ODDS IMPLIED PROB. EDGE
Predators +136  42.4% +150 40% +2.4%
Lightning -136 57.6% -170 63% -5.4%

At the price of +150, betting on the Predators would return a 2.4% profit over 100 games. It might not be worth backing the underdog in Game 1 of 1,312, but finding an edge isn't easy, even when you know how to look for it.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Norris Trophy Rankings: It’s Makar’s to lose as young wave takes over

Welcome to the first edition of theScore's 2023-24 Norris Trophy Power Rankings. New rankings will be published once a month throughout the season.

Note: All stats from 2022-23
xGF% = five-on-five expected goals for percentage

5. Erik Karlsson, Penguins

Kavin Mistry / National Hockey League / Getty
GP G A ATOI xGF%
82 25 76 25:37 50.65

Can Karlsson repeat his historically great 2022-23 campaign in which he became the first defenseman since 1991-92 - and only the sixth ever - to reach 100 points in a season?

There's no putting it past him if he can stay healthy, especially with the move to Pittsburgh. Karlsson will have a significantly more talented supporting cast with the Penguins than in San Jose.

However, it seems somewhat unlikely that Karlsson will reach those heights again. He's 33 years old and due for some shooting percentage regression. If the offense plateaus a bit, he doesn't have the defensive game to make up for it.

As great as Karlsson is, there's a crop of younger, ascending defensemen with better two-way profiles who we couldn't help but put ahead.

4. Ramus Dahlin, Sabres

Bill Wippert / National Hockey League / Getty
GP G A ATOI xGF%
78 15 58 25:48 52.08

Dahlin enjoyed various levels of success in his first four NHL seasons, but he exploded in Year 5 for 78 points and finished eighth in Norris voting. With his ridiculous offensive skill set, it was only a matter of time before everything came together for a spectacular campaign.

When the Sabres drafted Dahlin first overall in 2018, he drew comparisons to Karlsson and Nicklas Lidstrom. While it may have been unfair to stack him up against arguably the two best Swedish defensemen of all time before he even played a game, that's how good of a prospect he was.

Dahlin is just 23 years old and the cornerstone for an emerging, prolific offensive Sabres team. There's no reason he can't take his game to greater heights in 2023-24. His biggest downfall last season was his lack of discipline, taking 92 penalty minutes. If he can stay out of the box, he could win the Norris next season.

3. Miro Heiskanen, Stars

Steph Chambers / Getty Images Sport / Getty
GP G A ATOI xGF%
79 11 62 25:29 54.26

Heiskanen is on a similar trajectory as Dahlin. A quality player in his first four NHL campaigns, Heiskanen went off in Year 5, more than doubling his previous career high in points with a robust 73.

But while Dahlin is best at using his slick hands to create offense, Heiskanen uses his feet. The 24-year-old is one of the league's most naturally gifted, effortless skaters. He uses his skating to wheel the puck out of trouble, create room in the offensive zone, and thwart opposing attacks while on the defensive end.

Heiskanen is easily the best defensive defenseman to crack this list. If he continues to find ways to improve offensively, it'll be impossible for voters to keep him out of their top three after he finished seventh last season.

2. Adam Fox, Rangers

Elsa / Getty Images Sport / Getty
GP G A ATOI xGF%
82 12 60 24:23 54.93

Fox is set to enter his fifth NHL campaign, and his resume is already quite impressive. He won the Norris in 2021, finished fifth in 2022, and was the runner-up to Karlsson in 2023.

The 25-year-old doesn't possess the same flashy skills as other players on this list. He's only 5-foot-11, 182 pounds, and he's not the most explosive skater. However, his intelligence and vision are some of the best in the game.

Fox has posted outstanding metrics at both ends of the ice in his career, and there's no reason that shouldn't continue in 2023-24. But as great as Fox is, there's a distant gap between him and No. 1 on our list.

1. Cale Makar, Avalanche

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty
GP G A ATOI xGF%
60 17 49 26:23 56.94

There's simply no argument that Makar isn't the best defenseman in the league. Heck, there's a case to be made that he's the second-best overall player in the sport behind Connor McDavid.

If he didn't get hurt last season, he might've given Karlsson a run for his money and claimed his second straight Norris Trophy. Makar still finished third despite missing 22 contests (and probably playing some games at less than 100%).

It's hard to envision Makar not winning the Norris if he can stay healthy and the team around him can at least stay somewhat healthy after injuries decimated the roster in 2022-23.

Makar is one of the most dynamic offensive defensemen we've ever seen. His skating and puck skills are better than some of the game's best forwards. But the 24-year-old has also used his skating and hockey IQ to become a supremely underrated player defensively - he's more tenacious than he gets credit for.

Despite the young wave of competition, Makar has to be considered the resounding favorite.

Don't sleep on: Roman Josi, Victor Hedman, Charlie McAvoy, Dougie Hamilton, Quinn Hughes, Moritz Seider, Evan Bouchard

(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)

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Post game: Looking for secondary scoring

Sat Shah and Bik Nizzar breakdown the Canucks penaltimate pre-season game a 2-1 loss to the Seattle Kraken in Abbotsford. Hear from Head Coach Rick Tocchet and Cole McWard post game. Plus Dan Riccio provides his post game analysis. 

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Evander Kane would be ‘100% supportive’ of NHL returning to Atlanta

Evander Kane believes the third time might be the charm for NHL hockey in Atlanta.

The current Edmonton Oilers forward and former Atlanta Thrashers star is adamant Georgia's capital city could support a team this time around.

"You talk about a great city to live in, a great city to be a part of," Kane told Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman. "The fan base. Everybody talks about a lack of fans, but the fanbase we had there was so awesome. They were so passionate about us as a hockey team. We had fans at practice all the time."

Kane was drafted fourth overall by the Thrashers in 2009 and spent the first two years of his NHL career in Atlanta before the franchise relocated to Winnipeg to become the Jets.

"As an 18-year-old, I loved being there," Kane said. "Great travel. Four other major sports. There's lots to do. It's a hub, you can get anywhere in the U.S. or even internationally from Atlanta. There's so many good things I have to say about it. I would be 100% supportive."

Atlanta was home to the NHL's Flames from 1972-80 before relocating to Calgary, and home to the Thrashers from 1999-2011.

NHL expansion is not imminent, but commissioner Gary Bettman didn't rule out the eventual possibility.

"We're not in a mode where I'm saying, 'Okay, if you're interested in expansion, submit your applications,'" Bettman said. "We're not there. We're just getting expressions of interest. And as you all know, I take meetings all the time on a variety of subjects, and if somebody wants to talk to us, we talk to them.

"If somebody came in and said, 'Okay, we have a building, this is our market, this is our ownership group, we'd really like to go.' Then we'll take a look at it and decide whether we're inclined to expand at this point in time."

Relocation is perhaps a sooner likelihood. The Arizona Coyotes, notably, have been the subject of relocation rumors after failing to secure a deal for a new arena in Tempe in May. The club has two seasons left on their lease to play at Mullett Arena, a 4,600-seat rink on the campus of Arizona State University. After that, the Coyotes will again be without a home.

NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly said in September that he sees Atlanta as a viable NHL market despite the two past failures. Houston, Quebec City, and Salt Lake City are among other locations that have seen speculation as feasible NHL homes.

Kane, Blake Wheeler, and Zach Bogosian are the last three remaining active NHLers who played for the Thrashers.

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Trotz: Saros ‘absolutely’ a part of Predators’ future plans

The Predators have undergone quite the transformation during Barry Trotz's first few months as general manager, but the executive made one thing clear: Netminder Juuse Saros is "absolutely" a part of Nashville's plans moving forward.

"I think he's a special goaltender," Trotz told The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun. "Obviously, he's created his own little legacy. We've been blessed with great goaltending in Nashville. It started with Tomas Vokoun, then Pekka Rinne, and hopefully Juuse for the future."

Saros has two seasons remaining on his current four-year, $20-million deal and will be eligible to sign a new pact next July. Even though Trotz can't actually get Saros to put pen to paper just yet, it's still something that's on his mind.

"I've already reached out to (Saros' agent) Kevin Epp and their group (to) see what their thoughts are on talking," he said.

Saros enjoyed yet another outstanding campaign with the Predators in 2022-23 and finished fourth in Vezina Trophy voting behind finalists Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Sorokin, and Linus Ullmark. Saros owned a 33-23-7 record to go along with a .919 save percentage and 2.69 goals against average while ranking second among all goalies in goals saved above expected (45.49) at all strengths, per Evolving-Hockey. He also faced a league-high 2,099 shots last season.

The 28-year-old has appeared in over 60 games for the Predators in each of the last two campaigns, and his 71 wins over that span are the third most in the NHL. He was named a finalist for the Vezina Trophy for the first time in his career in 2021-22.

Nashville is in the midst of a retooling phase after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2013-14. David Poile, who served as the Predators' GM since the team was awarded an expansion franchise in 1997, officially stepped down in June, paving the way for Trotz to take the helm.

The Predators then embarked on an interesting summer that saw them buy out the final three seasons of Matt Duchene's contract, trade Ryan Johansen to the Colorado Avalanche, and reel in a couple of Stanley Cup champions in Ryan O'Reilly and Luke Schenn on the free-agent market.

The puck drops on Nashville's 2023-24 campaign on Oct. 10 against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

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