Alex DeBrincat, the subject of intense trade speculation this offseason, is headed home to join the Detroit Red Wings.
Detroit extended the 25-year-old sniper immediately after acquiring him in a splashy swap with the Ottawa Senators on Sunday night. DeBrincat's new four-year contract counts for $7.875 million against the salary cap.
In return, Ottawa received veteran forward Dominik Kubalik, prospect defenseman Donovan Sebrango, a 2024 conditional first-round draft pick, and a 2024 fourth-rounder.
The Red Wings will choose which 2024 first-rounder - either theirs or the Boston Bruins' selection, previously acquired for Tyler Bertuzzi - is part of the deal. One caveat: The Bruins could opt to keep their pick if it's in the top 10, at which point Boston's unprotected 2025 first-rounder would be on the table.
Let's evaluate the blockbuster move from both sides.
Red Wings
Until Sunday, Detroit lacked elite attacking talent. This franchise has starved for offense throughout its seven-year playoff drought. The Red Wings haven't finished higher than 22nd in NHL scoring since 2015, back when DeBrincat and Connor McDavid lit up Ontario Hockey League goaltending as Erie Otters teammates.
DeBrincat excels alongside superstars. He racked up 160 goals in five seasons - 32 per year - with the Chicago Blackhawks as Patrick Kane's frequent linemate. Last season, he barely got to play with skilled centers Tim Stutzle (Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux were the Senators' top wingers) or Josh Norris (who injured his shoulder and sat out all but eight games).
DeBrincat's stats slipped in Ottawa. He scored 27 goals on a shooting percentage of 10.3%, well below his 15.5% average in Chicago. He also regressed defensively: The Sens were outscored 58-42 in DeBrincat's five-on-five minutes, per Natural Stat Trick.
Sensing an opportunity, the Red Wings capitalized. General manager Steve Yzerman reeled in a proven sniper from the Detroit suburb of Farmington Hills to complement Dylan Larkin on the top line.
The cost of landing and extending DeBrincat was modest. His average annual value is substantially lower than Larkin's $8.7-million cap hit, not to mention the $8.8-million AAV that Timo Meier just procured from the New Jersey Devils.
His contract projects to be team-friendly. If DeBrincat shoots as often as he did in Ottawa and his success rate normalizes, he'll be the first Wings player to flirt with 40 goals since Marian Hossa buried that many in 2009. Even in a down year, DeBrincat's 11 power-play tallies ranked in the top 30 league-wide. His presence on the PP will divert attention from Larkin and elevate the whole first unit.
DeBrincat isn't solely a triggerman. He shone as a playmaker in 2022-23, dishing a career-best 39 assists. He also remained aspirationally durable. DeBrincat has never been injured in the NHL, only missing four games during the 2020-21 season when he was placed in COVID-19 protocol.
His arrival boosts the Red Wings now and for years to come. DeBrincat is the fifth NHL forward Yzerman's brought in this month, joining J.T. Compher, Christian Fischer, Klim Kostin, and Daniel Sprong. Like Larkin, he'll continue to produce at a high clip as Detroit's most promising young forwards, from Lucas Raymond to Jonatan Berggren to prospects Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson, mature into difference-makers.
Three Atlantic Division up-and-comers - the Buffalo Sabres, Red Wings, and Senators - are stuck in the league's longest playoff skids. The Wings have the lowest offensive ceiling of the bunch. Adding DeBrincat narrows that gap and makes next season's Detroit-Ottawa showdowns (four between Oct. 21 and Jan. 31) extremely compelling.
Grade: A-
Senators
On July 7, 2022, the Senators dealt the No. 7 and No. 39 picks in last year's draft, plus a 2024 third-rounder, to nab DeBrincat from the Blackhawks as Chicago's roster teardown started.
Here and now, the Sens recoup a lesser winger in Kubalik (incidentally, a former Blackhawk), AHL defensive depth in Sebrango (incidentally, an Ottawa native), and worse draft capital. Trading the best player involved is a surefire way to lose a deal. It's doubly painful to sell low on DeBrincat to a division rival and possible future playoff opponent.
Still, the move was sensible. GM Pierre Dorion created cap relief and can now focus on balancing and deepening the forward corps.
Ottawa has inked Stutzle, Tkachuk, Norris, and Thomas Chabot to long-term pacts in the $8-million range. Defensive linchpins Jake Sanderson and Jakob Chychrun could command that coin pretty soon. DeBrincat returning would have made it tough to sign RFA Shane Pinto, the club's third-line center, and would have stopped the Senators from enhancing their forward depth, a weakness last season.
Pending UFA Kubalik, twice a 20-goal scorer, makes $2.5 million against the cap. Ottawa can slot him beside Pinto and have money left over to take a swing at Vladimir Tarasenko, the most coveted free agent currently on the market. Strengthened by upgrades on the blue line (Chychrun) and in net (Joonas Korpisalo), the Sens will be fine next season if they can replicate DeBrincat's production collectively.
Notably, the Sens now possess three 2024 fourth-rounders: theirs, Detroit's, and a Tampa Bay Lightning pick acquired in the Mathieu Joseph-Nick Paul swap. Using one as a sweetener to offload Joseph's $2.95-million contract could open space to sign Tarasenko, who bagged 34 goals and 82 points as recently as 2021-22.
Meanwhile, Ottawa owns multiple picks in a first round for the first time since 2020 when Dorion drafted Stutzle, Sanderson, and Ridly Greig. They'll be able to replenish the prospect pool - another organizational need - even if both selections fall late in the round.
The Senators failed to get the most out of DeBrincat but still ice four recent 35-goal scorers: Stutzle, Tkachuk, Norris, and Giroux, the last acquisition left from the fabled Summer of Dorion. They didn't compel Yzerman to part with a young star or Detroit's top '24 first-rounder, but they won't need to shop DeBrincat at the trade deadline - potentially in the midst of a playoff push - to avoid losing him for nothing next summer.
Since DeBrincat wouldn't sign in Ottawa long term, an awkward outcome was inevitable. This solution is somewhat elegant.
Grade: B-
Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.
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