The Vegas Golden Knights successfully defended home ice in the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final, winning both while outscoring the Florida Panthers 12-4 on aggregate.
Can the Panthers push back in Game 3 or will the Golden Knights put them on the brink of elimination? Let's take a closer look.
The scorelines we've seen through two games are not very flattering to the Panthers.
While there are definitely some red flags - they've taken far too many penalties and Sergei Bobrovsky looks vulnerable - I think the Panthers played a lot better than the scoreboard suggests.
At five-on-five, the Panthers won the high-danger chance battle 22-21 while outshooting the Golden Knights. Adin Hill performed at a very high level and Bobrovsky didn't, combining with Alex Lyon to allow nearly 20% of the shots faced at full strength.
Goaltending is by and large the difference right now. Bobrovsky hasn't been the unbeatable force we saw through three rounds (quite the contrary), and Hill has.
I think the majority of the Panthers' game is in an OK spot. They're more than holding their own at five-on-five. They just need to be more disciplined and, ideally, get even average goaltending from Bobrovsky. They don't need to raise their level that much. They're going to come out firing at home and empty the tank to get a result in Game 3.
If they lose this game, the series is as good as over. They know it, you know it, and I know it.
I'm expecting the Panthers to match the Golden Knights at even strength, if not outplay them. So long as they can get a save, I like their chances of making this a series - at least temporarily.
Bet: Panthers (-125)
Aleksander Barkov over 2.5 shots (-130)
Injuries don't seem to be hampering the Panthers' star center. He attempted 13 shots over the first couple games, which is as many or more than every other forward in the series.
Barkov came up a puck shy in Game 1 - albeit not for a lack of opportunities - and followed that up with a successful eight-attempt performance.
I'm expecting another productive effort from Barkov in Game 3. He has been a machine at home all season, going over the number in 27 of 42 games (64%) in Florida.
He is routinely playing 22-plus minutes and that will no doubt remain the case with the team's season on the line. It's also worth noting Barkov has a strong history against the Golden Knights, going over in four of six meetings while attempting at least five shots in all but one of them.
Win or lose, I'm expecting Barkov to get his fair share of looks on net.
Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 shots (-110)
Double dip? Double dip! We're running it back with another Panthers shooter.
Tkachuk is a monster on home ice. He's registered at least four shots in 30 of 46 games in Florida, hitting at a healthy 65% clip. He has enjoyed success against the Golden Knights, too, going over the number in three of four meetings this year.
Tkachuk himself talked about simplifying things and getting more pucks on Hill in this game. He'll certainly have a plethora of opportunities to do just that, as the puck is always on his stick in the offensive zone and he's going to get as many minutes as he can handle.
Look for him to make the most of them.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
The Panthers better hope that home-ice advantage - which hasn't been all that relevant throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs - is a series-changer Thursday night. Home teams went 19-31 in the first round and have been essentially a 50-50 proposition since. With the Stanley Cup Final heading down to Sunrise for the first time in the finals, the Panthers will hope the sun doesn't set on their championship hopes.
Series: Golden Knights (-500) vs. Panthers (+400)
Even-strength numbers
TEAM
xG
HDC
HDG
Golden Knights
4.08
23
5
Panthers
4.57
22
2
At even strength, the Golden Knights haven't generated pressure - measured in expected goals - or high-danger chances at a wildly greater level than their opponents. However, a gap in goaltending quality led to disaster for Florida in Game 2.
Adin Hill has 3.17 goals saved above expected this series, while the Panthers' netminders combined for minus-3.54 GSAx. That's an almost seven-goal gap. The Golden Knights got back to doing what they do best Monday - converting even-strength high-danger chances at an outlandish rate. Vegas had 10 such chances in Game 2 and scored four goals.
Panthers head coach Paul Maurice says he has "complete faith in what (Sergei Bobrovsky) can do in Game 3." What else could he say? We knew before the series that the Panthers would need at least average goaltending, and they haven't gotten that yet. That's the first step to turning this series around. Scoring more on Hill - whose play has been surprisingly awesome - would help too.
We're still waiting on Florida's first power-play goal of the series, while Vegas scored the first and last of its seven goals in Game 2 on the man advantage. That's something few could've seen coming given that the Panthers converted 28% of their power plays coming into this series, while the Golden Knights had converted just 18%.
Florida is the slight favorite for Thursday's game. The +400 payout on a Panthers series comeback suggests they can win four of the next five games 20% of the time.
That means a bet on the Panthers at this point is a bet on whether you think Maurice is onto something - that Bobrovsky will be better (and Hill worse). That'd give Florida a chance to translate the comparable even-strength metrics to a more even result on the scoreboard.
Ideally, the Panthers will be more disciplined. But looking at most of the penalties taken, it's hard to know where the line is between playing aggressively and out of control. Vegas is 4/11 on the power play, while Florida is 0/7. Those will need to get closer to level after the next two games. I'm willing to believe that'll happen in the two games in Sunrise - the Panthers could go 3/9 on the power play while the Golden Knights go 1/7.
Accomplishing these two hypothetical goals might get this series back to even, at which point having a +400 ticket in pocket would provide some flexibility.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
It's another edition of Overrated/Underrated as Dan and Sat debate whether topics such as Lionel Messi signing with Miami, Patrik Allvin being able to squeeze other GM's, and much more is overrated or underrated.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Dan and Sat discuss the strengths of the Golden Knights' defence and what the Canucks can take away from them. Also, hear from Kevin Woodley of InGoal Magazine to talk about the Panthers' goaltending situation and more.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Athanasiou was a pending unrestricted free agent. The Blackhawks inked him to a one-year, $3-million contract last July.
The forward, who'll turn 29 on August 6, collected 20 goals and 20 assists while playing all but one game for the Blackhawks this season.
Andreas Athanasiou, signed 2x$4.25M by CHI, is a middle six winger who creates chances with his speed, scores with his speed, draws penalties with his speed, and that's about it. #Blackhawkspic.twitter.com/FjqBXDKsKY
Athanasiou has played for four teams in his eight-year career. He spent his first four-plus campaigns with the Detroit Red Wings, who traded him to the Edmonton Oilers in February 2020. He then signed with the Los Angeles Kings about 10 months later before joining Chicago as a free agent last summer.
The Blackhawks have rarely retained veteran players since Kyle Davidson took over as general manager in March of last year. The GM slowly stripped the club of most of its talent, and the strategy paid off in May when Chicago won the draft lottery and right to select Connor Bedard after finishing with the league's third-worst record.
The Red Wings drafted Athanasiou 110th overall in 2012.
The Los Angeles Kings re-signed pending unrestricted free-agent defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov to a two-year extension, his agent Dan Milstein announced Wednesday.
The deal carries an average annual value of $5.875M, according to TSN's Chris Johnston.
The contract carries a full no-movement clause and will be paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, Johnston reports. Gavrikov will reportedly earn signing bonuses of $5.725 million this year and $4.475 million in 2024. His base salary will be $775,000 each season, adds Johnston.
Gavrikov was acquired by the Kings at the deadline from the Columbus Blue Jackets and thrived during his time in Los Angeles. The 6-foot-3, 221-pound defender played a key shutdown role alongside Matt Roy down the stretch and into the playoffs.
New Jersey Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald is committed to ramping up contract talks with restricted free-agent forward Timo Meier this week.
"We would love nothing better to tie him up long term," Fitzgerald said, per NHL.com's Mike Zeisberger. "That's our goal. That's what (agent) Claude (Lemieux) and I will go through."
"I want them to understand what New Jersey is, what the organization is, the living - I think New Jersey is a diamond in the rough - the travel, all the positive things. Give him a chance to settle in and go: 'OK, I hope you want to be here.' Those are some of the things we'll go through."
The Devils acquired Meier from the San Jose Sharks prior to this season's trade deadline. New Jersey sent a package of three draft picks and four players to San Jose to add the highly sought-after right winger to supplement its first playoff appearance since 2019.
Meier collected 14 points in 21 regular-season games with the Devils, then produced an underwhelming playoff run with only four points in 11 appearances before New Jersey was bounced by the Carolina Hurricanes in Round 2.
"It's really hard to come in and understand a new system," Fitzgerald said. "As a player, I've done it twice. It's really hard. Our system's hard, too. The (defensive) zone; it's difficult to understand. And it takes some time. Coaches say it takes at least 20 games to get used to a system, so you evaluate your team after 20 games, right? And for sure, it took some adjustment."
The Devils have an estimated $34 million in cap space this offseason, per CapFriendly. However, New Jersey only has a roster size of 12 at the moment, and Jesper Bratt, Michael McLeod, and Yegor Sharangovich are among additional key RFAs in need of new contracts like Meier.
If the Devils can't agree on a long-term deal with Meier this summer, the qualifying offer to retain his RFA rights for an additional season is $10 million.
The 2023 unrestricted free-agent class projects to be one of the weakest in recent memory, so teams may resort to the trade market in order to boost their squads. They already have, too, beginning with the three-way deal that sent Ivan Provorov to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday. But several other intriguing players could be available via trade. Let's take a look.
Noah Hanifin, Flames
Trade potential: ★★★☆☆
Elias Lindholm, Flames
Trade potential: ★★★☆☆
Gerry Thomas / National Hockey League / Getty
The Calgary Flames are entering a new era under general manager Craig Conroy, and during his introductory press conference he made it clear he doesn't intend on losing key pending unrestricted free agents for nothing - as the club did with Johnny Gaudreau a year ago.
The Flames have several crucial 2024 UFAs. Tyler Toffoli, Mikael Backlund, and Chris Tanev are among them, but we've decided to highlight Lindholm and Hanifin since they'd likely draw the most interest if they were made available. While they're also likely Calgary's biggest priorities to keep, the Flames would be wise to move them if they can't lock them up to long-term deals.
Lindholm had a down year in 2022-23, tallying 64 points in 80 games in what was a disappointing season for the team. But he's just one year removed from a 42-goal, 82-point campaign that saw him finish as the Selke Trophy runner up. Centers of his ilk rarely become available, so there will be no shortage of suitors if he's up for grabs.
Hanifin hasn't completely lived up to the potential of being a top-five draft pick, but he's still a solid player. And 6-foot-3 defenseman who skate well are always highly coveted around the league. Plus, he's still only 26 years old with room to grow.
Alex DeBrincat, Senators
Trade potential: ★★★★☆
Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images
DeBrincat was Ottawa's prized offseason addition in 2022, but he could be on the move once again in 2023, as the Senators have reportedly already begun dangling him on the open market. He's a pending restricted free agent this summer who could simply accept his $9-million qualifying offer and walk to unrestricted free agency in 2024.
The Senators continue to make strides and should once again compete for a playoff spot in 2023-24, but they're not yet at the point in their build where they can afford to lose a key UFA for nothing. If DeBrincat isn't willing to commit long-term this offseason, Ottawa may have to deal him.
DeBrincat's first season in Ottawa was a down year by his standards, as he tallied 27 goals and 66 points in 82 games, but the 25-year-old winger still brings 40-goal potential.
Erik Karlsson, Sharks
Trade potential: ★★★☆☆
Kavin Mistry / National Hockey League / Getty
There were rumors of a Karlsson trade during the 2022-23 campaign. Sharks general manager Mike Grier said in November he was open to offers for the star defenseman, and the Edmonton Oilers reportedly showed interest in Karlsson before landing Mattias Ekholm to bolster their blue line. And while Karlsson said he's "fully invested" in San Jose, he's also expressed his desire to win. And it doesn't appear the Sharks will be doing that any time soon.
There are complicated factors, of course. Karlsson possesses a full no-movement clause, so he chooses his own adventure. He also carries an $11.5-million cap hit - the fourth-highest in the NHL - for four more seasons through his age-36 campaign. The Sharks are almost certainly going to have to retain a portion of that deal to facilitate a move. But they'd be foolish not to.
Karlsson was finally healthy in 2022-23 after years of being plagued by injuries, and he produced a historically great season, becoming the sixth defenseman ever, and first since 1991-92, to rack up 100 points. If there was ever a time for the Sharks to maximize their value for Karlsson, it's now.
Colton Parayko, Blues
Trade potential: ★☆☆☆☆
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty
Perhaps surprisingly, the St. Louis Blues were reportedly open to moving one of their top four defensemen ahead of the 2023 trade deadline. Unsurprisingly, Colton Parayko was the one drawing the most interest.
The Blues ultimately never made such a deal, but it remains possible they'd be open to the idea of dealing Parayko now that the offseason is under way. After all, St. Louis finished with the 10th-worst record in the NHL, and the team appears to be making an effort to get younger.
At age 30, Parayko isn't old, but he's no spring chicken, either. He's under contract for seven more seasons with a $6.5-million cap hit. A contract of that length carries some risk for a team that could undergo a youth movement in a few years time, but it would be more than worth it for a club looking to win immediately.
Parayko is exactly the type of defenseman contending teams covet. He's a physical, 6-foot-6, right-handed shutdown blue-liner. His playoff pedigree is an asset, as he played a key role in St. Louis' 2019 Stanley Cup run, logging 25:07 per contest in 26 playoff games.
Blues GM Doug Armstrong doesn't have to move Parayko, but if he's willing to listen to offers, he could fetch quite a haul.
Mitch Marner, Maple Leafs
Trade potential: ★☆☆☆☆
William Nylander, Maple Leafs
Trade potential: ★★☆☆☆
Andrew Lahodynskyj / National Hockey League / Getty
Toronto Maple Leafs president Brendan Shanahan reportedly told the team's core forwards that they're unlikely to be traded. But with a new GM in charge in Brad Treliving,anything could be on the table.
Barring a proclamation from Auston Matthews that he won't re-sign, the club's top center isn't going anywhere. And with John Tavares' hefty $11-million cap hit and a no-movement clause, he's staying put, too.
That leaves Mitch Marner and William Nylander. If the Leafs are actually going to shake up their core, it will likely be by moving one of their star wingers.
Marner gains a no-movement clause on July 1, so if they're going to move him, they better act fast. But it wouldn't be easy for the club to win a trade involving a 99-point winger who's a Selke Trophy finalist, so a deal for him doesn't seem likely, especially considering he won't be a UFA until 2025.
Nylander, on the other hand, only gains a 10-team no-trade list on July 1, so moving him would be much easier. Plus, his $6.96-million cap hit would be more palatable for teams to take on. Nylander can be a UFA in 2024, so if extension negotiations stall, moving him is a possibility. And as a 27-year-old winger coming off a career-high 40 goals and 47 assists, there would be no shortage of suitors.
Dubois in particular seems like a lock to get traded, as he reportedly told the team he plans to test free agency in 2024. And as a 24-year-old, 6-foot-2 center coming off a 63-point campaign, teams will be lining up for Dubois - even though the price will be steep.
Hellebuyck will draw plenty of interest if made available, too. The 30-year-old remains one of the game's few remaining workhorse netminders, and he's been remarkably consistent throughout his career. In the last six seasons, he's led the league in games played four times while never posting a save percentage below .910.
Scheifele has struggled defensively in recent years and even got moved from center to wing down the stretch in 2022-23, but he's still a highly productive offensive player. The Jets could be selling at a great time, though, as he's coming off a career-high 42-goal season.
