For as much as Sunday was scary among those of us backing the Oilers, Monday was a fun day. We threaded the needle between the value bet of 'Kraken: +1.5 games' from our Kraken-Stars preview and various positions on the Stars to advance that we started before the playoffs, and built upon that once they went down 0-1.

Now the Golden Knights - a team we faded in failure - take on the Stars, who we pinpointed before the first puck-drop as an under-the-radar contender. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Stars are the play, but we still need to reiterate why.

Series odds

The Golden Knights again have home-ice advantage, but unlike Round 2 - where they were series underdogs - they are short favorites to advance to the Stanley Cup Final. These lines suggest that the Stars (45.5% implied win probability) are notably worse than the Oilers (60.8%), which is a concept I just can't agree with. Even if the Oilers were overrated in their pricing, a 14% swing is excessive.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated over the season, when isolating play after the All-Star break, and in their first-round matchup (relative to their opponent).

One of the reasons the implied win probability of the series' odds is hard to get behind is that - relative to their competition - the Stars played better in Round 2 than the Golden Knights. Seattle - an average NHL team this regular season - was outplayed at even-strength at a 60% rate by Dallas, whereas the Golden Knights got by Edmonton despite only generating 46.6% of the expected goals at even-strength.

Advanced metrics at even strength (regular season)

xG%= Expected goals share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

During the regular season, the Stars edged the Golden Knights in three of four of our favorite even-strength advanced metrics. Through two series of playoff hockey, the Stars lead the entire league in expected goal and high-danger chance share.

The Golden Knights' playoff high-danger chance conversion rate of 22% is augmented by scoring on four of just eight such chances in Game 6 against the Oilers. It's unsustainable going forward. Meanwhile, their opponents' HDC conversion rate of 9.5% is a tribute to the goaltending Vegas is getting - but is that sustainable?

Goaltending matchup (goals saved above expected/60 minutes)

In Round 2 - the series where Vegas apparently turned the market's opinion of the team - the Golden Knights got the better goaltending. During that same timeframe, the Stars overcame an opponent that got the better goaltending. Can Adin Hill maintain a GSAx that would make him a lock to win the Vezina Trophy if he sustained that type of play over a full season? Should we expect Jake Oettinger to progress back to a better-than-average goaltender after struggling at times this postseason?

Special teams (regular season)

No matter who you blame, the Golden Knights' outlandish even-strength shooting percentage and ability to stay out of the penalty box allowed them to overcome the Oilers' advantages. However, the Stars are good at both segments of special-teams play, creating an advantage there.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

Even when adding something extra for Vegas' home-ice advantage, I have Dallas as the smallest of favorites. But that only shows itself as a valuable bet from a series perspective if the Stars' moneyline creeps up to +125 before Friday night.

Best bets

If you have a bet on the Stars to win the Western Conference at +600 or better, congratulations. You've made a good bet and need not do much else. Otherwise, Stars (+120) to win the series is an easy bet to make.

When it comes to game-by-game betting, we'll also side with the Stars even at not technically valuable prices. The belief is that two key figures for Dallas will bring up the team's level of play. Oettinger should get back to the regular season version of himself or, at the very least, be a tougher challenge than Stuart Skinner. Meanwhile, the Stars have made it this far with just two goals from leading scorer Jason Robertson. Perhaps the goals will come via the Stars' power play, which should feast similarly to how the Jets and Oilers succeeded against a poor Vegas kill.

Game 1: Stars moneyline (+115)
Series: Stars to win (+120)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The Seattle Kraken are holding their heads high despite a heartbreaking Game 7 loss to the Dallas Stars on Monday night.

"From day one, everyone's kind of written us off," veteran Jordan Eberle said. "We took a big leap this year. I don't think anyone expected us to make the playoffs, no one expected us to beat Colorado, and I'm sure no one had us to get to Game 7 here. I think obviously as a group, this is the first time we've been through this. You've got to obviously learn how to lose first and then find a way to win."

The Kraken claimed the first wild-card seed in the Western Conference this season with 100 points - a 40-point improvement from a disappointing inaugural campaign as the league's 32nd franchise in 2021-22. After qualifying for the postseason, Seattle claimed its first-ever series victory by knocking off the defending champion Avalanche in seven games.

The massive turnaround this season led to a Jack Adams nomination for head coach Dave Hakstol. He believes what his club accomplished this year is much bigger than on-ice results.

"That's a perspective that I want our players also to have - and it probably won't register home tonight - but this group also changed the landscape of hockey in Seattle," Hakstol said, per NHL.com's Nick Cotsonika. "This particular group had the guts to change the culture, the trajectory, the belief, of our franchise as well.

"That's something for later, but that hits home with me, that this group of guys did that, and at some point in time, they should look at that and take a lot of pride."

Even after an impressive showing in 2022-23, the Kraken are well positioned to improve this summer. Seattle's biggest piece of offseason business will be a new contract for star restricted free agent Vince Dunn, but the club has the financial flexibility to pay the blue-liner handsomely and still be aggressive in free agency with a projected $18.3 million in cap space, according to Cap Friendly.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The conference finalists in these Stanley Cup Playoffs will have a little bit of time to rest up before their series begin.

Here's how and where each matchup takes place. All of the Eastern Conference games will start at 8 p.m. ET and air on TNT, Sportsnet, CBC, and TVA Sports.

*If necessary

Eastern Conference Final

Carolina Hurricanes (M1) vs. Florida Panthers (WC2)

Western Conference Final

Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs. Dallas Stars (C2)

All of the Western Conference Final contests will be broadcast on ESPN+, Sportsnet, CBC, and TVA Sports. ABC will also air Games 2 and 5, with ESPN showing the rest of the matchups.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The Dallas Stars defeated the Seattle Kraken 2-1 in Monday's Game 7 to march on to the Western Conference Final against the Vegas Golden Knights.

Roope Hintz pickpocketed Jamie Oleksiak to open the scoring for the Stars late in the second period. Rookie Wyatt Johnston went upstairs with a slick backhand for a key insurance tally midway through the third period that turned out to be the eventual game-winner.

Johnston, who turned 20 on Sunday, became the youngest player in Stanley Cup Playoff history to score a series-clinching goal in Game 7. Jaromir Jagr, who did so at 20 years, 76 days with the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 1992 division semifinals, previously held the distinction.

Oliver Bjorkstrand made things interesting, getting the Kraken on the board with 17 seconds left in regulation. But it was too little too late, as Dallas held on for the victory.

Both goalies played excellently, but Jake Oettinger earned the victory for Dallas by stopping 22 of 23 shots. He wasn't tested often, as Seattle generated just seven high-danger chances in the game compared to Dallas' 17, according to Natural Stat Trick.

"It's great," Oettinger said of his team's defensive effort, according to ESPN's Greg Wyshynski. "Just, you know, hangin' out."

Miro Heiskanen shined bright on the Stars' blue line, logging a game-high 32:06 in the contest. The Stars controlled 66.57% of the expected goals when Heiskanen was on the ice at even strength.

The Western Conference Final will be a revenge series of sorts for Stars bench boss Pete DeBoer, who coached the Golden Knights the previous three seasons.

"There's a lot to unpack there," DeBoer said, laughing. "I think we'll just enjoy tonight and talk about that as we go forward."

Dallas and Vegas met in the 2020 Western Conference Final, with DeBoer's Golden Knights falling to the then Rick Bowness-led Stars in five games.

DeBoer now owns a career 7-0 record in Game 7s and has advanced to at least the conference finals during his first year on the job in each of his last four NHL stops. He took Vegas to the West final in 2020, the San Jose Sharks to the Stanley Cup Final in 2016, and the New Jersey Devils to the Stanley Cup Final in 2012. He's yet to win a ring, though.

Dallas' lone Stanley Cup victory came in 1999.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

A quartet of groups reportedly remains in the hunt to purchase the Ottawa Senators on the final day bids can be submitted.

The final four majority owner candidates are Michael Andlauer, Steve Apostolopoulos, Jeffrey and Michael Kimel, and Neko Sparks, reports Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch.

One of the bids exceeds $1 billion, according to Sportico's Scott Soshnick and Eben Novy-Williams.

Andlauer is a Montreal Canadiens minority owner who also owns the OHL's Brantford Bulldogs.

Apostolopoulos reportedly bid $6 billion for the NFL's Washington Commanders, who were later sold to New Jersey Devils and Philadelphia 76ers owner Josh Harris. Apostolopoulos is based in Toronto.

The Kimels are also Toronto-area billionaires and former Pittsburgh Penguins minority owners who recently sold their stake in the club. Canadian singer The Weeknd has partnered with their bid.

Sparks is an L.A.-based entrepreneur, CEO, and producer. He's aiming to become the first Black owner in NHL history. Snoop Dogg has joined his efforts. Sparks reportedly wants to offer First Nations communities equity stakes in the team.

Snoop Dogg posted a message for the Senators and their fans on his Instagram account Monday.

Ryan Reynolds was initially interested, but his bid - fronted by real estate mogul Christopher Bratty and the Remington Group - bowed out last week. The group reportedly sought an exclusive negotiating window but was denied.

Sacramento Kings owner Vivek Ranadive also appeared to be in the mix for the Senators but isn't among the reported final bidders.

The late Eugene Melnyk's daughters, Anna and Olivia, inherited the franchise when their father died in March 2022. They appointed New York-based firm Galatioto Sports Partners to oversee the sale.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Marc Bergevin, Peter Chiarelli, Jason Karmanos, and Eric Tulsky are among the first wave of 10-12 candidates to interview for the Pittsburgh Penguins' general manager vacancy, reports TSN's Pierre LeBrun.

Bergevin spent parts of three seasons with the Penguins to close out his 20-year playing career. He served as GM and executive vice president of hockey operations for the Montreal Canadiens from 2012-21, leading the team to a Stanley Cup Final berth in 2021. He's been working as a senior advisor with the Los Angeles Kings over the last couple of seasons.

Chiarelli boasts 13 years of experience as an NHL GM - nine with the Boston Bruins from 2006-15 and four with the Edmonton Oilers from 2015-19. He was maligned for trades during both tenures, most notably dealing away Tyler Seguin with Boston and Taylor Hall with Edmonton. However, Chiarelli led the Bruins to a Stanley Cup title in 2011 and another Cup Final appearance two years later. He's worked in the St. Louis Blues front office for the past four seasons.

Karmanos is most familiar with the Penguins organization among the reported candidates. He spent six-plus years as the team's assistant GM under Jim Rutherford from 2014-20, helping the Pens win back-to-back Cups in 2016 and 2017. Karmanos was also Rutherford's right-hand man with the Carolina Hurricanes for 14 seasons from 1998-13. The 48-year-old spent the last three campaigns as the Buffalo Sabres' assistant GM.

Tulsky owns the least NHL front-office experience among the reported candidates but is considered one of the brightest minds in the game. He's spent nine seasons in the Hurricanes' front office, working his way up from analyst to director of analytics to assistant GM over the last three campaigns.

The Penguins fired GM Ron Hextall and president of hockey operations Brian Burke in April after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Members of Pittsburgh's AHL affiliate and Pens head coach Mike Sullivan have been making hockey operations decisions in the interim.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.