We have a juicy two-gamer ahead of us to begin the weekend. Elimination is on the line in the early window, while the late contest is a swing game with each team missing its best defensemen in the series due to suspension. Fun stuff!

Let's take a closer look at three of the bets that most stand out.

Panthers (+150) @ Maple Leafs (-175)

With their backs against the wall, the Maple Leafs took a different approach in Game 4 against the Panthers - and it worked.

Rather than try to open things up offensively and score their way to victory, they simplified their game and focused on playing the suffocating style opposing teams always try to use against them.

The Maple Leafs worked as hard without the puck as they did with it. They completely sucked the life out of the Panthers' attack at five-on-five, holding them to only 1.62 expected goals generated. That's nearly a full xG less than their previous lowest output in this series.

Perhaps the Maple Leafs felt this approach was necessary with youngster Joseph Woll between the pipes. Perhaps they felt it was the best way to win no matter who was between the pipes. Either way, the change paid off.

Toronto controlled more than 58% of the expected goal share at five-on-five, their second-highest total of the playoffs and best mark of the series. And they didn't give up a goal in that game state.

They had answers for all of the questions surrounding the team, too. It's so often been about the stars going quiet in an elimination games or the power play not finding a way to make its mark. Not in Game 4.

The Maple Leafs scored on one of their two power-play opportunities. William Nylander and Mitch Marner found the back of the net. Auston Matthews and John Tavares combined for nine shots and a bundle of chances. The stars did enough, and the defense was great behind them.

I expect Toronto to ride that wave and come through with another victory at home, where it really caused the Panthers problems defensively.

It feels like ages ago, but the Maple Leafs combined for more than nine expected goals over the first two home games. They made a few blunders in bad spots - and paid the price for it - but by and large generated chances in bulk. Sergei Bobrovsky was the only thing slowing them down.

I don't expect him to turn into Swiss cheese on a whim. Having said that, he has by far the highest second-round save percentage at .934. Sooner or later, one would expect that to regress and Bobrovsky to be the .900 goaltender we've watched for years now.

Should that regression start to kick in Friday night, the Maple Leafs will likely extend the series with a multi-goal victory inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Maple Leafs in regulation (-110)

Auston Matthews over 4.5 shots (-120)

Matthews let us down in Florida - he had four shots last time out - but we're going back to the well at home Friday night.

He put forth matching offensive performances in Games 1 and 2 of the series, recording six shots on 11 attempts in each.

The higher volume at home is a trend we've seen from Matthews - and many star players - all season long. His hit rate is 14% higher when playing in Toronto than on the road.

He should get a few extra shifts in cushier matchups, and in a do-or-die game, he could approach 25 minutes of ice if the game is close. He'll have every opportunity to get the job done.

Evan Bouchard over 2.5 shots (+115)

Bouchard has quietly posted some strong shooting numbers against the Golden Knights. He's attempted 25 shots through four games, good for an average of more than six per contest. That'll more often than not be enough for a player with a 2.5 line - and Bouchard is no different.

The Oilers defenseman has a 63% hit rate this season when attempting at least six shots. If we adjust to games where he had at least seven attempts, a number Bouchard has already hit twice this series, his success rate climbs to a whopping 74%.

I think we could see that sort of ceiling from Bouchard in this game. He's already the quarterback for the top power play. With Darnell Nurse suspended, he'll play an even bigger role at even strength as well.

Bouchard should log 22 minutes or more, which is more than enough time for such a trigger-happy player to get three shots.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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