Carolina Hurricanes general manager Don Waddell will be calling his fellow GMs rather than testing the free-agent market to find improvements this offseason.
"I still think the trade route is something we're going to explore very heavily before free agency," Waddell said Wednesday at his end-of-season availability.
He added that the first day of free agency "is probably the most dangerous day in hockey, besides the trade deadline."
Waddell swung a pair of blockbuster trades last July, acquiring Brent Burns from the San Jose Sharks and Max Pacioretty from the Vegas Golden Knights.
Burns was an instant fit, playing a pivotal role in helping Carolina win the Metropolitan Division and reach the Eastern Conference Final. Pacioretty only played five games before re-injuring his Achilles. He's a pending unrestricted free agent.
Waddell said he'd like to add goals to the roster but isn't just focusing on a pure sniper.
"We'd like to get a little heavier, if possible," Waddell said. "We also need guys like Teuvo (Teravainen) to have a bounce-back year. He had a tough year this year. And guys like (Seth) Jarvis are only going to get better. So we might have a lot of that goal-scoring internally, and there are other things that we might be able to address then."
Carolina scored 3.07 goals per game in the playoffs, the lowest mark of any team in the final four. The club ranked 15th in goals for during the regular season (262).
The Hurricanes have an estimated $24.1 million in cap space this offseason, per Cap Friendly. They have a host of key players headed for unrestricted free agency, including captain Jordan Staal and goaltenders Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta.
Sat and Bik debate whether topics such as too much rest in the playoffs, touching conference finals trophies, and much more are overrated or underrated.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Sat and Bik discuss JP Barry's comments regarding Elias Pettersson's next contract and what we can take away from them. Also, hear from George Richards of Florida Hockey Now on the Panthers as they get set for the Stanley Cup Final.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Another year, another surprise finalist for the Stanley Cup. But get past the talk of being an 8-seed and the Panthers have a loaded resume.
Going 11-1 in its last 12 games against the vaunted Bruins, the momentarily relieved Maple Leafs, and the analytics-darling Hurricanes, Florida comes into the ultimate series - a battle for hockey's Holy Grail - as the underdog for the fourth straight time. The Vegas Golden Knights get a slight nod because of home-ice advantage.
Series odds
TEAM
GAME 1
SERIES
SERIES HANDICAP
Panthers
+115
+110
+1.5 (-190)
Golden Knights
-135
-130
-1.5 (+160)
The Golden Knights get the honor of being short favorites for the Stanley Cup Final. A +115 price indicates 46.5% implied win probability, compared to the Golden Knights' 57.4% at -135. Shaving 2% off each side to remove the sportsbooks' 4% hold, the assumption is a 55.5/45.5 split in favor of Vegas. Adjust for a 4% flip due to home-ice advantage, if these games were played on neutral ice, it would be as close to a true coin-flip as we could expect out of a championship matchup.
Ratings
Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated over the season, when isolating play after the All-Star break, and in their previous playoff matchups (relative to their opponent).
TEAM
SEASON
POST-ASB
ROUND 1
ROUND 2
ROUND 3
Panthers
+17%
+16%
+27.8%
+7.2%
+8.7%
Golden Knights
+11%
+2%
+8%
+10%
+8.8%
The Panthers played out of their expected range while coming back to beat Boston in the first round, but they were mostly above average in edging Toronto and Carolina, thanks in part to four overtime wins (plus Matthew Tkachuk's buzzer-beating Stanley Cup Final berth clincher).
The Golden Knights consistently played 8-10% above an average team in dispatching the Jets, Oilers, and Stars.
The even-strength playoff metrics show that the outlier performances often needed to survive the brutality of a playoff run are colliding. Neither team has relied on an expected goal advantage, but the Panthers have held opponents below an expected high-danger chance conversion level, while the Golden Knights have converted those chances on offense way above league average.
By comparison, Ilya Sorokin, the leader in GSAx in the regular season, averaged 0.86 goals saved above average per 60 minutes.
Special teams (regular season)
TEAM
PP%
PK%
PP+PK
Panthers
22.8
76.0
98.8
Golden Knights
20.3
77.4
97.7
The Panthers have improved their power play to a 28% efficiency in the postseason and now get a matchup with the Golden Knights' 63% penalty kill. At 18.5%, Vegas has also been less effective on the power play than in the regular season.
Moneyline betting guide
If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.
Price to bet
TEAM
NEUT. WIN PROB
GM 1/2/5/7
GM 3/4/6
SERIES
Panthers
53.4%
+109
-124
-125
Golden Knights
48.6%
+112
+153
+154
The good news is that the same numbers that led us to bets on the Panthers over the Bruins, the Maple Leafs and the Hurricanes suggest a bet here. The bad news is that those same numbers didn't love the Golden Knights in Round 1, 2 or 3. Luckily, plus-money priced wins on Florida have out-paced losses fading Vegas.
Best bets
We came away from Round 1 lauding Vegas for what seemed like an unsustainable conversion rate of 20.8%, blaming Connor Hellebuyck for not stepping up and making the big saves.
In Round 2, Stuart Skinner took the heat in Edmonton as Vegas somehow surpassed its first-round efficiency by scoring on 12 of its 50 even-strength high-danger chances.
We hypothesized that Jake Oettinger couldn't possibly succumb to these unsustainable rates. With a subpar GSAx coming into the series that was reputation-based, he could not as Vegas went 14/56.
Sergei Bobrovsky is the first goaltender to come in with the numbers to back up the hope that someone can reel in the Golden Knights' outrageous even-strength high-danger conversion rate and level the playing field. With that, the Panthers can then out-class Vegas via special teams. With eight of their 12 wins coming on the road this postseason, travel shouldn't be an issue, especially since Florida's the side with the plus-price yet again.
Game 1: Panthers moneyline (+115) Series: Panthers to win (+110)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
The Toronto Maple Leafs' search for a new general manager appears to be coming to a close.
"All signs now point" to the Maple Leafs naming former Calgary Flames general manager Brad Treliving as their new GM, TSN's Darren Dreger reported Tuesday.
Treliving has reportedly been "very high" on Toronto's list of candidates to replace Kyle Dubas as general manager.
The Maple Leafs announced on May 19 that Dubas would not return after five seasons at the helm, and team president Brendan Shanahan subsequently noted his interest in hiring an experienced candidate.
Former Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin met virtually with Shanahan on Friday, TSN's Pierre LeBrun reported earlier Tuesday on "Insider Trading." LeBrun added that despite this meeting, Treliving remained the "front-runner" for the position.
Treliving spent nine years as Calgary's general manager before parting with the team in April. The Flames reportedly denied the Pittsburgh Penguins permission to speak with Treliving earlier in May, but they have since allowed him to speak with both Pittsburgh and Toronto provided he does not participate in discussions around the upcoming NHL draft, according to Sportsnet's Eric Francis.
The Flames made the playoffs in five of nine seasons during Treliving's tenure as general manager. Calgary reached the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs twice in that span, losing in five games each time.
Toronto has qualified for the postseason in seven consecutive seasons but has just one series win in that period. The Maple Leafs knocked off the three-time defending Eastern Conference champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round in April before losing to the Florida Panthers in five games in Round 2.
The Maple Leafs and Pittsburgh Penguins are the two NHL teams currently without a general manager.
Sat and Bik are joined by Sportsnet's Sam Cosentino to talk about some of the tiers of players at the draft, who is rising and falling with a month to go, and more.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Sat and Bik discuss the Stanley Cup Final being set and what the Canucks can take away from Florida and Vegas. Also, hear from Kevin Woodley of InGoal Magazine on Silovs' performance for Latvia, his progress, and much more.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.