Dan and Sat welcome in NHL Prospects Analyst Chris Peters from Flo Hockey to discuss Adam Fantilli's decision to participate in the 2023 Worlds in Finland & Latvia. They dive into a number of players that pique their interest before the NHL Draft.
This podcast was produced by Dominic Sramaty.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Dan and Sat discuss the handling of Cale Makar's interference penalty last night and the subsequent 1-game suspension. They talk about how the Avs have gone about trying to keep their window open and question how they could have done better. Irf Gaffar joins the show as they dive into all the Stanley Cup Playoff action.
This podcast was produced by Dominic Sramaty
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner is starting Game 5 of his team's first-round series against the Los Angeles Kings on Tuesday, head coach Jay Woodcroft confirmed.
Woodcroft is showing faith in Skinner after pulling him in Game 4. Skinner, 24, allowed three goals on 11 shots in the first period of Sunday's contest before exiting. Jack Campbell replaced Skinner and stopped all but one of 28 shots as the Oilers rallied for a 5-4 overtime win to even the series at two games apiece.
Skinner outplayed Campbell to leapfrog the 31-year-old as Edmonton's No. 1 netminder over the latter half of the season. The Oilers signed Campbell to a five-year, $25-million contract in free agency last July.
Skinner is 1-2 with an .881 save percentage in four postseason games this spring, while Campbell's relief appearance in Sunday's game marked his first playoff action with Edmonton.
Skinner went 29-14-5 with a .913 save percentage over 50 games during the regular season, which was his official rookie campaign. He suited up for 13 games with the Oilers in 2021-22, making his NHL debut in January 2021. Edmonton drafted him 78th overall in 2017.
Campbell went 21-9-4 in 2022-23 but posted an .888 save percentage in 36 appearances. Drafted 11th overall by the Dallas Stars in 2010, he's also spent time with the Kings and the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Are we having fun yet? Or is that just the feeling of exhaustion after eight nights' worth of mayhem in the Stanley Cup Playoffs? Each series has gone four games, and no one's been eliminated. We've hit a point in the first round where series positions have been established, so moneyline bets or in-series adds aren't often necessary. Nevertheless, we'll take a quick look at each series to dissect what to expect when it comes to closing time.
Let's start with a public service announcement: For a series where the underdog has to run the table, just roll over the moneylines.
Here's what rolling over moneylines looks like for the Islanders on a $10 bet with lines of +140 in Game 5, -110 in Game 6, and +130 in Game 7:
$10 x 2.4 x 1.9 x 2.3 = +$95 (+950)
The Isles' hopes rest on the fact that they've been the better team - with metrics that would suggest they'd be leading a series 57% of the time - and that as long as they're alive, there's still time for Ilya Sorokin to step up and bring a level of play similar to what Antti Raanta is providing the Hurricanes.
The reason to bet on the Stars before the series was because they might get something of a free win if the Wild stuck with their plan to play Marc-Andre Fleury at some point. Sure enough, the Stars rolled in Game 2, but now they have to deal with the best goalie in the series - Filip Gustavsson - who's saved almost a full goal above expectation per 60 minutes.
Jake Oettinger met Gustavsson's level in Game 4, so we'll hope that any pre-series or in-series positions on the Stars come through, with no value on either side currently.
The Kings were so very close to cashing +1.5 series games tickets on Sunday, and now they're back to the same odds they had before the series and after Game 2. There's little to do beyond hold Kings tickets unless Jack Campbell starts for the Oilers in Game 5, which would trigger a bet on Los Angeles.
When one out of every six high-danger chances is going in at one end of the ice, and one out of every 10-plus high-danger chances is going in at the other end, there's going to be a lopsided result relative to metrics like expected goals. That's the difference between Linus Ullmark playing up to his standard and the Panthers' goaltenders playing down to theirs - a standard that was always going to have to change or be overcome.
There's no one on the Kraken roster who'll make your jaw drop with skill like Nathan MacKinnon's speed, Cale Makar's agility, and Mikko Rantanen's release. However, if the Avalanche aren't careful, they're going to get beat. The pre-series issue remains: How do you price the defending champs who aren't guaranteed to show up for a period or a game? Now a three-game series, more variance is in play for an upset, so the Kraken's odds are shorter than before the series.
The problem with a 3-1 lead is that now you can blow a 3-1 lead. Those following the pre-series handicap are sitting on a handful of tickets for a quick series, and all you can ask for is a home game to close it out. In Games 1 and 2, the Maple Leafs drove play at a two-thirds rate, while the Lightning had a slight edge at home. Both kept with the moneyline odds for the game, so pricing seems pretty fair.
The Devils scored their first goal on an even-strength high-danger chance in the series in Game 4. One goal out of 50 tries when staring down Igor Shesterkin is a wild stat, yet the Devils are headed back home tied at two.
Not to overcomplicate things, the Devils replaced Vitek Vanecek's minus-2.99 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) with Akira Schmid's plus-3.29 GSAx in two games. With that change in quality between the pipes, very little else matters. The Devils were -125 to win the series before it started, and now they're -105 with questions in net answered and their own HDC conversion rate set to improve.
Betting on the Jets was really more of a fade of the Golden Knights, particularly at prices that suggested that you were getting plus money on a coin flip before the series. However, sometimes the coin lands on the wrong side, even if it's weighted. Winnipeg has had key player after key player injured and isn't getting anything from Connor Hellebuyck to save the day.
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Those absences have also taken a healthy bite out of the Hurricanes' ability to drive play. Despite trailing 3-1 in the series, the Islanders have both outchanced and outscored Carolina at five-on-five.
New York has hung in extremely well against one of the NHL's most consistently dominant even-strength teams - it just hasn't been able to slow the Hurricanes' power play.
Carolina has scored five power-play goals over four games, while the Islanders have found the back of the net just once with the man advantage (and conceded a shorthanded goal).
While the Hurricanes deserve credit for that, it seems unlikely they can rely as heavily on the power play in Game 5.
For one, the Islanders ranked ninth in power-play goals against per minute and third in shorthanded save percentage during the regular season. They're normally adept at killing penalties, and it will be shocking if Ilya Sorokin continues to let the Hurricanes score on 25% of their power-play shots.
This is an elimination game for New York. That means - rightly or wrongly - the refs are likely to tuck the whistles away as much as possible. Given the way the special-teams battle has gone for the Islanders thus far, that should work in their favor.
This should be a close and sweaty game. At +135, there's value on New York to pull it out.
Bet: Islanders (+135)
Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-110)
Heiskanen is one of the best volume shooting defensemen in the NHL. He does his best work on home ice, coming through in 27 of the Stars' 41 games at American Airlines Center this season. That's an impressive 66% hit rate.
Heiskanen recorded three shots or more in each of Dallas' first two games against the Wild. He failed to do so in two outings at Minnesota's Xcel Energy Center, though the venue is notably stingy when it comes to handing out shots.
Expect Heiskanen to get back on track Tuesday night in Dallas. His volume is consistently higher at home - he averages 1.3 more attempts than he does on the road - and he should get all the ice time he can handle in this massive swing game.
If Dallas loses tonight, the Wild return home with a chance to close out the series in their own building. Expect the Stars to ride their stars in an effort to take control of this series.
Adrian Kempe over 3.5 shots (-115)
Kempe's shot volume has been remarkably good through the Kings' first four games against the Oilers. He's attempted 39 shots, tying him with Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.
That volume has translated to success in the shot prop market. Kempe has hit in three of four games thus far, coming just one short last time out.
It wasn't for a lack of trying. Kempe attempted seven shots despite only getting two minutes of work on the power play; he had at least four minutes in each of the three previous games. Had one of his four misses hit the target, he'd be looking at a clean 4-0 record.
Kempe hit in each of the first two games at Edmonton's Rogers Place, recording 10 shot attempts or more in both affairs. Expect another productive effort tonight.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Laurent Brossoit says he had a little extra motivation when the fans of the opposing team - and his former club - tried to get under his skin Monday night.
The Vegas Golden Knights goaltender got the last laugh after fans at Winnipeg's Canada Life Centre derisively serenaded the ex-Jets netminder with his name and chants of "You're a backup."
Brossoit stopped 24 of 26 shots in a 4-2 victory that gave Vegas a 3-1 series lead and pushed Winnipeg to the brink of elimination in their first-round playoff series.
"Oh yeah, I could hear them," Broissoit said postgame. "Honestly, it's just fuel. When you have that many people chanting your name, whether it's positive or negative, it's fuel."
"(It) didn't really seem like much fazed him," Golden Knights defenseman Shea Theodoresaid. "I know the crowd was kind of getting on him there, but he's a fantastic goalie, and he's on his game right now."
Brossoit played three seasons for the Jets as Connor Hellebuyck's backup from 2018 to 2021. Broissoit is in his second campaign with the Golden Knights, who signed the 30-year-old as a free agent in July 2021.
He took over as Vegas' starter in the wake of injuries to Logan Thompson and Adin Hill. Brossoit himself spent time on long-term injured reserve and played 23 AHL games in addition to 11 with the Golden Knights this season.
The B.C.-born puck-stopper went 7-0-3 with a .927 save percentage at the NHL level this year prior to the playoffs. He has a .902 clip to go along with a 3-1 record in the postseason.
The Seattle Kraken edged the Colorado Avalanche 3-2 in overtime on Monday to square their first-round playoff matchup at two wins apiece. These three questions will shape the Avalanche's fate in the series and determine how close they come to repeating as Stanley Cup winners.
Can Avalanche score first and often?
Christopher Mast / NHL / Getty Images
Certain pillars of the Avalanche's 2022 Cup team either signed elsewhere last summer (Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky) or missed the full year recovering from knee surgery (captain Gabriel Landeskog). The Avs reigned atop the Central Division anyway, despite scoring 32 fewer goals than last season.
Colorado's offense was electric in the '22 playoffs. The Avalanche potted 4.25 goals per game over 20 matchups, the most by a team whose run lasted that long since the 1983 New York Islanders. They outscored the Nashville Predators 21-9 in the first-round sweep that initiated the onslaught.
Seattle's a pluckier opponent, but Colorado's big guns came to play. The forwards who log the heaviest minutes - Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Compher, Artturi Lehkonen, and Valeri Nichushkin (who remains out for personal reasons) - have bagged 10 of the club's 12 goals to date. Rantanen's Game 4 equalizer was his fifth tally of the series and ended the Avalanche power play's protracted drought. Of course, Jordan Eberle's power-play goal for the Kraken in overtime was bigger.
Steph Chambers / Getty Images
Winning offensive-zone faceoffs has sparked the Avalanche at times. Lehkonen and Devon Toews scored off draws to power Colorado's Game 2 comeback. Alex Newhook, a 38.6% faceoff taker for his career, snapped one back to tee up Cale Makar's missile from the point in Game 3. Colorado only controlled 44% of the draws in Game 4, a series low.
Per Natural Stat Trick, MacKinnon leads the series in shots and individual scoring chances, predictably establishing himself as a force. He paced all NHL regulars this season in five-on-five scoring per 60 minutes, producing 3.28 points (for context, Connor McDavid's per-60 rate was 2.71). Outshot 43-22 on Monday, the Avalanche didn't drum up any momentum until MacKinnon's sweet backhand feed helped Rantanen score off the rush.
Colorado's depth diminished up front when Kadri and Burakovsky departed, and Landeskog was shelved. The main cast remained formidable through the rash of injuries that sidelined MacKinnon, Lehkonen, Nichushkin, Makar, and Bowen Byram for weeks at a time. The Avs scored the first goal in an NHL-high 54 games this season, posting an .824 points percentage in those contests.
Pouring it on early and consistently is how they'll contend for the Cup again. Credit the Kraken, who've wrongfooted Colorado by striking first in all four games.
Can Avs manage puck in the D-zone?
Steph Chambers / Getty Images
Puck-movers abound on Colorado's back end. Makar is a wizard, Toews' decision-making is sound, and Byram and Samuel Girard are renowned for their mobility. Despite this strength, careless puckhandling has stung the Avalanche every time they've started slow in the series and dug a two-goal hole.
Many Seattle tallies have stemmed from failed Colorado breakouts, takeaways in the Avalanche zone, or bounces the Avs mishandled behind the net. A few minutes into Game 4, Rantanen's blind back pass wound up on Brandon Tanev's stick, and Will Borgen promptly wired a one-timer over Alexandar Georgiev's mitt.
The Kraken's offensive approach is no-nonsense. They lack superstar creators but send pucks deep, forecheck doggedly, win one-on-one battles, and attack downhill in transition. That happened in overtime Monday when Lars Eller's offensive-zone turnover enabled Jaden Schwartz to race behind two Colorado defenders and compel Josh Manson to trip him.
Seattle's finishing ability is elite, but the stupendous goals in this matchup - both MacKinnon's breakaway burst and undressing of Ryan Donato in Game 3 come to mind - largely belong to the Avalanche. Conjuring highlights is their domain. Taking greater care of the puck would limit glorious chances against and help spring Colorado's stars up ice.
Can Georgiev shut the door?
Icon Sportswire / Getty Images
Last spring, Darcy Kuemper's .902 postseason save percentage was high enough for him to win the Stanley Cup. He saved minus-7.29 goals above expected in the playoffs, per Evolving-Hockey. Injured in multiple rounds, Kuemper ceded the net at points to backup Pavel Francouz. Colorado was the rare champion that never needed its starting goalie to dominate.
Signed to succeed Kuemper, Georgiev's save percentage has slipped from .919 over 62 regular-season starts to .908 so far against the Kraken.
That said, he's been dependable at key junctures. Georgiev thwarted Yanni Gourde's breakaway attempt and Eberle's odd-man chance in Game 2 with huge pad saves, keeping the Avalanche afloat when they trailed in the series. He stoned Jared McCann in Game 4 a beat before Makar injured the Kraken sniper by ramming him into the boards. Georgiev saved 29 consecutive shots and denied 40 overall before Eberle struck in sudden death.
Philipp Grubauer's .895 save percentage this season was poor, but the Kraken netminder has experience shining in the clutch. Grubauer foiled shots at a .920 rate over 29 playoff starts for Colorado from 2019-21. Georgiev was the busier and better goalie on Monday, a silver lining he'll have to duplicate to submerge Seattle.
