Dan and Sat discuss all the firings around the NHL as the season comes to a close. They also give out their predictions for the first round of the playoffs.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Dan and Sat answer your questions about whether or not the Canucks will tune out another coach next season, if we reevaluate the Filip Hronek trade, and more!
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Dan and Sat discuss the offseason priorities for the Canucks and what they could do with their limited cap space. Also, hear from Jannik Hansen on the last month of games for the Canucks, Rick Tocchet's impact, and more.
This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
It's another first-round rematch for a Canadian franchise as the Oilers find themselves facing the Kings - a team that took Connor McDavid and company to seven games last year. Since then, both teams revamped a questionable goaltending situation, improved their advanced metrics, and played better down the stretch of the regular season than they did at the start. For all that optimism, their reward is facing each other, and one way or another, a Western Conference contender will be sent home far too early.
Series odds
TEAM
GAME 1
SERIES
SERIES HANDICAP
Kings
+150
+180
+1.5 (+100)
Oilers
-175
-220
-1.5 (-140)
The game and series odds are comparable to last season's meeting, and the Kings can be found for as high as +210 in far away places. The Game 1 total opened the highest of any of the eight first-round series at 6.5, suggesting that the market is less certain either team has enough answers in net. Though the teams combined to go over 6.5 goals in only three of the seven games last year.
Ratings
Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.
TEAM
SEASON
POST-ASB
Kings
+9%
+16%
Oilers
+14%
+9%
For the season, the Kings played to a level 9% above league average but finished strong with even-strength play-rate that would make them comparable to the best teams in the NHL had they done so all season long. Part of that boost in metrics comes from keeping the puck out of the net, as their opponents scored on just 8.5% of their high-danger chances. The Oilers tantalized bettors with 18-3 moneyline record after March 1, but a look deeper at their play shows that might have been more than a little lucky.
Since March 1st, the Oilers created 54.5% of the even-strength expected goals in their games and had 57.7% of the high-danger chances during 5-on-5 - two very good rates. In that same time frame, Los Angeles had shares of 56.5% and 59.4% in their games, but a three-game losing streak - where the Kings actually held the Oilers, Golden Knights, and Avalanche to single-digit even-strength high-danger chances - was the difference between their current resume and that of Edmonton.
Goaltending matchup
PLAYER
GSAx/60 MIN.
Joonas Korpisalo
0.63
Stuart Skinner
0.38
The Kings made the quietest big move at the NHL's trade deadline acquiring Joonas Korpisalo from Columbus, allowing them to literally go back-and-forth between him and Pheonix Copley throughout the stretch run. The Kings may have provided a hint that it will be Joonas carrying the wind for them to start, as he got the tune-up in the season finale on Thursday - the first back-to-back start for either Kings netminder. Since joining the Kings, he's stopped over a half-goal per game more than an average goaltender would.
Thankfully for Edmonton, Stuart Skinner stepped up when Jack Campbell faltered miserably. However, Skinner's numbers look a lot like Mike Smith's regular season stats from last year, so the hope in Edmonton is that his postseason numbers don't nosedive like Smith's in recent playoffs.
Special teams
TEAM
PP%
PK%
PP+PK
Kings
25.3
75.8
101.1
Oilers
32.4
77.0
109.4
Guess what? The Oilers' power play is awesome. The kind of awesome that will happen when you have a player on your team whose name rhymes with Lonner McShmavid. However, the Kings' power play is sneaky good, even if merely mortal at fourth in the league - just behind the Maple Leafs and Lightning. Neither team is particularly stingy on the penalty kill.
Moneyline betting guide
If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.
Price to bet
TEAM
NEUT. WIN PROB
GM 1/2/5/7
GM 3/4/6
SERIES PTB
Kings
48.5
+147
+100
+141
Oilers
51.5
-120
+122
-115
Not surprisingly, despite largely even metrics, the brand power of McDavid and an 18-3 close to the season that's being attributed in part to the Oilers' added depth - particularly on defense with Mattias Ekholm - has made the Oilers prohibitive to bet. In turn, the value is squarely on the side of a relatively anonymous Kings team.
Best bets
This was the same situation last year, and the Kings pushed the Oilers to a deciding game in Edmonton. With Kings +1.5 widely available at even-money and my projected price for that at -169, even if you aren't willing to completely fade McDavid after an epic regular season, betting on a close series is probably a good idea. The over 5.5 games option is fairly priced at -165 as well.
A big x-factor for this series - outside of the inexperience in net on both sides - is that the Kings could get a boost from the return of wingers Kevin Fiala and Gabriel Vilardi. Adding that depth will give Los Angeles a better chance to win the ice time that McDavid is on the bench for - a key in any matchup with the Oilers.
That may not happen in Game 1, but a moneyline at better than +150 is hard to pass up after seeing the Kings take a pair of playoff games in Edmonton last season, including the series opener.
Game 1: Kings moneyline (+160 or better) Series: Kings +1.5 games (+100)
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Count captain Brady Tkachuk among the Ottawa Senators who are sick and tired of having their season end early.
"I just don't like being done in April anymore. I'm pretty done with it," he said during his end-of-season media availability, per TSN. "I think moving forward, it won't be the case. That's the belief in the locker room, that's the next step: We're not gonna be done in April anymore."
After bringing in Alex DeBrincat, Claude Giroux, and Cam Talbot during an electric offseason, the Senators finished the campaign six points out of the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference and failed to make the playoffs for the sixth straight year.
Giroux entered his first season in Canada's capital with 95 games of playoff experience under his belt, and the 35-year-old veteran was disappointed to not have the chance to add to that total with the young Senators in 2022-23.
"I think we did a lot of good things. ... Saying that, honestly it's not the position we want to be in right now," he said. "Well, me personally, I know we took a step from the team they had last year, but you want to be in the playoffs. You want to be competing. It's just a little frustrating right now."
Tkachuk previously emphasized that this season felt "different" than past years, including the 2021-22 campaign when the Senators finished in seventh place in the Atlantic Division with a 33-42-7 record. Then, they were a distant 27 points out of a playoff spot.
Ottawa earned six more victories and finished with 13 more points in 2022-23.
Newcomer Jakob Chychrun acknowledged the improvement and has liked what he's seen from the club since his arrival in March.
"It's awesome. That's what you look for as a player, is to be on a team that's trending in the right direction, and I think this could be a really special few years with this group," he said. "The sky's the limit for this team and the potential that we have in there."
Chychrun could only get into 12 contests as a Senator due to injury, but he noted he was "pretty close" to returning and that he hopes to get into "every game next year."
Ottawa has some decisions to make in the summer. The likes of DeBrincat and Shane Pinto are set to become restricted free agents, while Talbot and defenseman Travis Hamonic are among those who can become unrestricted free agents.
For the majority of the campaign, the Lightning and Maple Leafs knew a rematch of last season's seven-game first-round series was coming. If preparation and familiarity lead to buttoned-up defenses, expect the under to be in play in each game of this first-round matchup.
As fans of both teams can attest, last year's series was decided in a do-or-die game by a pair of goals from fourth-line support player Nicholas Paul. One year later, with Toronto again the site for a prospective Game 7, the Maple Leafs are favored by slightly more than last season.
Series odds
TEAM
GAME 1
SERIES
SERIES HANDICAP
Lightning
+125
+130
+1.5 (-175)
Maple Leafs
-145
-150
-1.5 (+140)
The Leafs were just -120 to win this series last year - thanks to home-ice advantage - after a season in which the Lightning's metrics suggested they were the better team. Those same numbers show the Leafs' improvement and the Lightning's decline this season.
Ratings
Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.
TEAM
SEASON
POST-ASB
Lightning
+17%
+2%
Maple Leafs
+19%
+4%
For the entire season, the Lightning and Leafs both rated just below the top teams at 17% and 19% above an average NHL team, respectively. But since the All-Star break, both have slipped relative to their start. That could easily be attributed to having little or nothing to play for as the season progressed. The Bruins' incredible start meant there was little chance of catching them for the division, and there was no threat the Lightning or Leafs would be caught from behind to prevent this 2-3 divisional matchup.
Despite all the aforementioned scoring talent, both teams finished the season below average in converting their high-danger chances, and as a whole, they got excellent goaltending when it came to stopping opponents' high-danger chances.
Goaltending matchup
PLAYER
GSAx/60 MIN
Andrei Vasilevskiy
0.51
Ilya Samsonov
0.44
While not quite Vezina-level numbers, both Andrei Vasilevskiy and Ilya Samsonov stopped roughly a half goal more per game than an average goaltender would have. Since the All-Star break, though, Samsonov's play has improved, stopping .587 goals above expectation per 60 minutes, while Vasilevskiy's play dipped to less than .4 goals saved above expected.
Special teams
TEAM
PP%
PK%
PP+PK
Lightning
25.2
79.5
104.7
Maple Leafs
26.1
82.1
108.2
The Maple Leafs have the slightest advantage in special teams over the course of the regular season, but with the assumption of fewer power plays and a heightened level of game-planning for each coaching staff, I'd expect both penalty kills to win out, meaning power plays won't be the deciding factor.
Moneyline betting guide
If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.
Price to bet
TEAM
NEUT. WIN PROB
GM 1/2/5/7
GM 3/4/6
SERIES
Lightning
49%
+150
-108
+142
Maple Leafs
51%
-122
+133
-116
The small advantages in goaltending, special teams, and late-season even-strength play suggest the Leafs should be the slight favorite if this series were played out on a neutral site. Home-ice advantage for Game 7 pushes that price further, but -150 (60% implied win probability) for the series is too far.
Best bets
The numbers suggest that we're getting close to where the Lightning become a valuable bet, and Toronto's playoff history would help sway most in that direction. But when adding everything outside of the numbers, I'll invoke my right to pass on a pure side.
After three straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final in an unusually condensed period of time, the Lightning may not have another gear - despite Jon Cooper pleading for his team to bring more intensity to the regular season. As a result, I've gone looking for the best value bet to back Toronto.
I have a fair price on Leafs -1.5 games at +169, but oddsmakers are dealing +140. Hopefully, that improves by puck drop with the market potentially expecting another close series, but that's a price I'd take if it's the best we can get. Also, under 5.5 total games is available at +170, and my fair price for that is +166 so there's some value in betting this series to end earlier than expected - one way or another.
Game 1: Under 6 goals (-120) Series: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140 or better) Series: Under 5.5 games (+170)
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
The Anaheim Ducks won't renew head coach Dallas Eakins' contract after they finished in last place of the league this season, the team announced Friday.
"This was a very difficult decision, one that comes after careful and considerable deliberation," general manager Pat Verbeek said in a statement. "At the end of the day, I simply feel that a fresh perspective and new voice will be beneficial for the team."
The Ducks ended the campaign with a 23-47-12 record.