Dan and Sat discuss how the Canucks can improve their core this summer. Kevin Woodley from InGoal Magazine joins the show to talk about the Canucks' need for a practice facility and the goaltending matchups we've seen so far in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
This podcast was produced by Ben Basran.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Toronto Maple Leafs forward Michael Bunting was suspended three games for an illegal check to the head of Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak, the league announced Wednesday.
Bunting received a match penalty during Tuesday's series-opening contest after catching Cernak up high in the second period.
We've seen one game for each of the eight first-round playoff series, and while that's just 60 (or sometimes more) minutes of action, it's a data point for each matchup. Things went well for the Kings, Kraken, and Jets' chances of turning value into victory, so we'll stick to our guns there. Let's take that first data point for the other five series, where, despite some lopsided scores, there were no big mismatches. We'll compare the metrics to pre-series betting lines in order to see what virtual tickets we should put in our virtual pocket mid-series.
Islanders to win series (+325)
We thought this series would feature close, low-scoring games, and that's what we got in Game 1. The Hurricanes got the first goal, so it felt like they controlled play on the way to victory, but the even-strength high-danger chance total wasn't only 12-11 in the Islanders' favor, but that total is higher than expected. If chances are going to be as abundant going forward, Ilya Sorokin has a better chance to be a difference-maker. The Canes really only held serve by winning at home. Now at +325, has that much changed from when the Isles were +170? Whether the Islanders swipe Game 2 in Raleigh or flip things back to even on Long Island, this series is far from over.
Panthers/Bruins over 5.5 games (+110)
Like Carolina, the Bruins got the jump on their opponent in Game 1, but the Panthers actually acquitted themselves well relative to the questions we asked of them before the series. The soft goal allowed got the headlines, but Alex Lyon made some big saves to keep Florida in it, and the Panthers outchanced the Bruins 15-9 in high-danger areas. Florida at +200 in Game 2 is interesting, but the assumption that this series is going to end quickly is creating a plus-money price on it going six games or more. That's a deal if the Panthers can keep creating goals at nearly 60% of the game flow.
Stars to win series (+110)
The Stars weren't the better team in the first two periods of Game 1, as the Wild won the expected goal (xG) battle 1.45-0.64. However, the Stars took over for the next two-plus periods, winning the xG split 2.65-1.2. The Stars missed numerous glorious chances to end it and allowed the Wild to eventually get the game-winner, but context matters, and I'm more willing to back the team that was better later. We didn't get Marc-Andre Fleury in goal as we hoped for in Game 1, which saved us a loss in the ledger when Filip Gustavsson stopped better than two goals above expected (2.1 GSAx), but we'll bet against him to maintain that level for six more games, especially at a plus-price for the Stars.
Maple Leafs to win series (+110)
If the city known as the "Big Smoke" went up in flames after a 7-3 loss to the Lightning, we'd joke about waiting for the smoldering embers to cool before looking at Game 1 objectively. However, the sad truth is that apathy has crept in given the dire expectations prevailing in Toronto. Still, with a 15-6 even-strength high-danger-chance rate, if the Maple Leafs get better than self-admitted "shit" goaltending from Ilya Samsonov (-2.23 GSAx), there's reason to believe they're still the better team.
The Leafs can win a game on the road, so a series that was probably destined to be longer than necessary remains just as likely to go the distance. The Leafs were -160 in Game 1 at home and are approaching that again for Game 2. Having +110 on the Leafs in Game 7 would provide value, and I wouldn't rule out Toronto winning in six games, especially if Tampa Bay's defensive injuries are significant - particularly in the case of Victor Hedman.
Devils to win series (+165)
We felt like the odds were underrating the Devilsbefore the series, and New Jersey's home loss in Game 1 now makes it a big underdog in the market to the flashier Rangers. But with both teams boasting better road records than at home and next to no travel, should a 16%-20% probability change be warranted? Maybe if the Devils had been woefully outplayed, but a 2.27-1.51 advantage in even-strength expected goals and a 12-10 edge in high-danger chances at five-on-five suggests the 5-1 final score wasn't indicative of each team's play. The Devils can get back to level in this series, and if they do, having a +165 ticket will look pretty good. After all, this is entirely the point of hopping into these series after just one game.
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
The Tampa Bay Lightning embarrassed the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 1 on Tuesday. The final score at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto: 7-3. Here are four areas the Leafs must address in Game 2 - which goes Thursday - and beyond.
Collective headspace
Let's get this out of the way off the top: The on-ice officials weren't kind to the Leafs in Game 1. They botched multiple calls, most notably the cross-checking and slashing penalties on Luke Schenn and David Kampf midway through the second period. Poor officiating undoubtedly affected the final score.
Still, Toronto did itself no favors in the discipline department. T.J. Brodie's holding infraction in the first and Michael Bunting's head hit in the second jump off the page as particularly unnecessary and, in the latter case, stupid.
Mark Blinch / Getty Images
Tampa made Toronto pay to the tune of four goals in just 10 power-play minutes. Plain and simple, if you give power-play dynamos Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov that much time to cook, you're going to surrender goals.
Of course, the mental lapses weren't limited to penalties. The Leafs were flat-out terrible in the opening 10 minutes Tuesday and then allowed goals in the dying seconds of both the first and second periods. It's drilled into hockey players from a young age to start games on time and finish periods strong, and the Leafs did neither to begin a series with so much on the line.
Hesitant, tentative, nervous, afraid, and uninspired are just some words to describe the Leafs at their worst moments in Game 1. That's ultimately what the fans and media will remember from that 60-minute debacle: the "demons" of playoffs past seemingly occupying the collective headspace of many Leafs.
"They've got demons in their head, in their car, under their f-----g beds, everywhere they turn there's a f-----g demon. The biggest obstacle this team has now is themselves," former Leafs assistant coach Paul MacLean memorably told head coach Sheldon Keefe during an episode of the "All or Nothing" documentary chronicling Toronto's 2020-21 season.
Whatever's going on mentally needs to be rectified ASAP.
Richard Lautens / Getty Images
The forecheck
Ryan McDonagh is long gone. Same goes for Jan Rutta and Cal Foote.
The Lightning blue line, a shell of its former self, was shaky at points during the regular season, with depth players occupying larger roles than they should. It's an area ripe for exposure over the course of a seven-game series.
Then Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak left Game 1 due to injury after skating for only seven and nine minutes, respectively. Tampa's four remaining defensemen thus logged tons of ice - 26 minutes for Mikhail Sergachev, 24 each for Ian Cole and Darren Raddysh, and 18 for Nick Perbix.
To put the depleted back end into perspective: In the third period, with Sergachev in the box, Cole - who's at best a third-pairing guy on any playoff squad - killed the entire two-minute penalty. It was out of necessity.
Icon Sportswire / Getty Images
Somehow, the four-man Tampa blue line didn't just survive Game 1, it actually thrived. That's probably more of an insult to the Leafs' forwards than a compliment to the Lightning's defensemen. How do you not capitalize?
Even before Hedman and Cernak went down, it was crystal clear Toronto needed to apply constant pressure on the forecheck. Get sticks in passing lanes. Throw weight around. Force them to make mistakes - a smothering attack should expose the lack of experience and talent beyond Hedman and Sergachev. (Hedman, who hasn't been himself all year, is vulnerable too.)
In Game 1, Sergachev was the target of five hits, Raddysh absorbed four, Perbix and Cole took two each, Cernak one, and Hedman zero. (The hit on Cernak may lead to a suspension for Bunting.) As long as the checks are legal, those numbers need to climb. The Lightning need to be worn down.
Bottom-six defense
Corey Perry is one-third of a crusty, old Lightning forward line the Leafs can easily exploit in this series. After all, it's Toronto, not Tampa, that boasts the faster, more versatile, and overall objectively better bottom-six contingent.
At least that's how it looks on paper ...
Perry was arguably the best player on the ice in Game 1, bagging a goal and adding two primary assists in less than 14 minutes of action. The soon-to-be 38-year-old, who looked washed-up for stretches of his 18th NHL regular season, led Tampa with seven shots on goal and two drawn penalties. Perry's a clutch player, but nobody predicted this level of impact out of the gates.
Michael Chisholm / Getty Images
Perry, Pat Maroon, and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare won the five-on-five matchup against Zach Aston-Reese, Sam Lafferty, and Kampf. The real Perry victim, however, was defenseman Justin Holl, who was on the ice each time Perry collected a point (two came on the power play). It gets worse: Holl finished the night with a minus-six goal differential - six against, zero for.
For Game 2, Keefe may go with Joseph Woll over Ilya Samsonov between the pipes. He also may be forced to replace a suspended Bunting up front. And he most definitely should replace Holl with Timothy Liljegren. Holl, who fumbled pucks and made poor reads in the defensive zone all night, can't be trusted after that lowly showing.
To that end, the Leafs can't afford to let Perry, a fourth-liner, dominate another game. They bulked up at forward before the trade deadline to overwhelm the opponent, not to be overwhelmed by a player ostensibly past his prime.
Top-six offense
Mark Blinch / Getty Images
In the regular season, the Leafs averaged 58 shot attempts per game - 32 shots on goal, 13 blocked shots, and 13 missed shots. In Game 1, Toronto recorded 64 attempts - 31 on goal, 20 blocked, and 13 missed.
The difference: clogged shooting lanes.
Auston Matthews for the most part looked dangerous Tuesday. He pitched in a pair of assists and more than held his own defensively. Yet the Leafs' best player managed to get only two of seven attempts on target. William Nylander contributed a tally, but half of his eight attempts didn't make it on goal. Mitch Marner, who racked up three assists, was otherwise ineffective on the attack while his flip-pass attempt in the first ultimately led to Tampa's second goal.
As a group, Toronto's big guns - Matthews, Nylander, Marner, John Tavares, Ryan O'Reilly - were fine in the opener. It was the others, from Holl, Brodie, and fellow defenseman Mark Giordano to Bunting and Samsonov, who cost the Leafs. That said, fine isn't good enough for world-class players - not at this time of year and certainly not within the context of the club's playoff history.
The Leafs were heavy favorites ahead of puck drop because the offensive pop keeps coming. They have multiple layers of game-breaking talent. Matthews and the other guns must find a way to break through the defensive shell.
Toronto beat Tampa 5-0 in last year's Game 1, then lost the series in seven games. Will another Game 1 become irrelevant by series end?
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).
The Oilers dropped the series opener in disappointing fashion, but I was largely impressed with what I saw.
They controlled the run of play at five-on-five, winning the expected goal battle 3.47-1.87 and posting the higher xG in all four periods. That did translate to results, as the Oilers outscored the Kings in that game state.
Where the Oilers ran into trouble was on the penalty kill. They took way too many penalties (six, to be exact) and paid the price against the Kings' dangerous power play.
Los Angeles tied the game up in the dying seconds on the man advantage, and that's also how they won in overtime.
Connor McDavid stressed postgame the importance of staying out of the box. We also generally see a lot of penalties called early in the series and the number progressively drop as it goes on.
If we assume the Oilers will come closer to even in power-play opportunities (they were minus-3), they have a strong chance of getting back on track in Game 2.
Without Kevin Fiala and Gabriel Vilardi, the Kings don't pack the same sort of punch at evens. I don't think they have the horses to keep up with McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and this high-flying team.
Expect the Oilers to be on the front foot often in this game and for that to translate to a much-needed victory.
Bet: Oilers in regulation (-130)
David Pastrnak over 4.5 shots (-130)
Pastrnak put up a prop dud in Game 1, recording just two shots against the Panthers. I expect more from him this time around.
For one, he's arguably the NHL's best volume shooter right now. He averaged five shots per game in the regular season and had a 60% hit rate for his shot prop.
He has also hit in nine of his past 10 games in Boston, with Game 1 against Florida being the lone exception.
Getting Patrice Bergeron back (he's questionable with an illness) would be huge and allow the Bruins to reset to their regular top six.
Score effects could help the cause, too. Boston led for 55 of the 60 minutes last time out, so there was no need to push the pace and generate shots.
While the Bruins are heavily favored once again, it stands to reason they'll spend more than five minutes level. That would help raise the floor and ceiling for Pastrnak.
Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 shots (-125)
Kaprizov was teeing off in the series opener against the Stars. He generated 11 shot attempts, six shots on goal, and five scoring chances in the double-overtime victory.
While the extra frames obviously helped boost his totals, Kaprizov went over the number inside regulation.
That's nothing new for Kaprizov, especially in the playoffs. Dating back to last season, he has recorded five shots or more in six of seven playoff games. He's getting the job done and then some.
The Stars aren't as good at five-on-five without Joe Pavelski, and they took penalties at an above-average rate over the season. This is a matchup Kaprizov can excel in.
While I expect the Stars to draw even in Game 2, Kaprizov should have his fingerprints all over the Wild's offense.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Toronto Maple Leafs forward Michael Bunting was given a match penalty for an illegal check to the head of Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak during Tuesday's Game 1.
Bunting caught Cernak up high with under five minutes remaining in the second period. The Lightning defenseman left the game after the collision and didn't return.
Bunting will have a hearing with the Department of Player Safety on Wednesday.
Lightning head coach Jon Cooper said Bunting's hit seems to "check a lot of boxes" to warrant supplemental discipline, according to Sportsnet's Luke Fox.
Star blue-liner Victor Hedman and forward Mikey Eyssimont also exited Tuesday's contest early for Tampa Bay due to injuries.
Corey Perry scored on the ensuing five-minute power play to put the Lightning up 5-2. After a failed challenge for goaltender interference from the Maple Leafs, Brayden Point added another goal on the five-on-three man advantage to extend Tampa's lead to four.
Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov vowed to improve after allowing six goals in Tuesday's 7-3 loss in Game 1 to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
"I will be better. I played like shit today," Samsonov said, per TSN's Chris Johnston.
The Lightning got to Samsonov early, opening the scoring in the highly-anticipated first-round rematch just 1:18 into the first period thanks to a net-front goal from Pierre-Edouard Bellemare.
Tampa Bay added two more in the opening frame before blowing the game wide open with three successive power-play tallies in the final 5:31 of the second period. Toronto handed the reins to Joseph Woll for the final stanza with the contest out of reach. Head coach Sheldon Keefe said postgame that it's "too early to know" which netminder will start Game 2, according to TSN's Mark Masters.
Samsonov had a strong bounce-back season between the pipes after signing a one-year deal with the Leafs in free agency, posting a 27-10-5 record with a .919 save percentage. However, he now owns a 1-7 career record in the playoffs with a 3.45 goals-against average and .895 clip.
Woll has 12 NHL starts under his belt, none of which came in the playoffs. Toronto is without veteran goaltender Matt Murray, who sustained a concussion late in the regular season.
Star defenseman Victor Hedman exited the Tampa Bay Lightning's opening game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs on Tuesday with an undisclosed issue.
Hedman played 6:35 in the first period but was late to join the bench to begin the second frame. He went back to the locker room without playing a shift and didn't return to the contest.
Defenseman Erik Cernak and forward Mikey Eyssimont also exited the game early for the Lightning due to apparent injuries. Cernak was injured on an illegal check to the head from Michael Bunting, while Eyssimont left after a collision with Jake McCabe.
