The Oilers won in Boston on Thursday - something few teams have done this season. The Bruins are now 26-6 against the moneyline at TD Garden. Despite the gaudy home record, it wasn't a massive upset for Edmonton, with the Oilers widely available around +150 and eventually closing around +130 on the moneyline.

Going into the game with an 83.8% home win percentage would suggest that Boston would be priced at -520 against an average team. That's obviously absurd, which is why it's so impressive the Bruins have won that many home games this season. That they would break even at that kind of price is wild. If you had known the club would garner these kinds of results in Boston, you would've had a great year blindly betting on it each time.

However, what's happened in the past record-wise can't be directly applied to the next game. Why? Because what happens on the ice in-between goals matters. Amazingly, the Bruins aren't necessarily the best home team in the NHL this season. There are two clubs with both a better even-strength expected goal share and a high-danger chance share.

While no one is stingier on home ice, 13 teams have created more high-danger chances at five-on-five at home this season than the Bruins.

How could we have known Boston would be super profitable in its arena this campaign? Obviously, we couldn't.

From a betting standpoint, home-ice advantage isn't how much better you are than the rest of the league at home. It's really about how much better you are compared to yourself on the road.

The Bruins were 26-15 at home last season and 25-16 on the road. They're 23-8 on the road this campaign, which isn't far off from their home results. Their record in Boston isn't a product of playing in Beantown. It's a product of being good in general.

Now that we've given the Bruins the appropriate credit, the Oilers were still just +130 at close Thursday night. If you've been an ardent follower of the guide here, you may have noticed the numbers haven't been begging us to fade Boston much this season. That means we have an adequate rating of them relative to the market.

Thankfully, we haven't faded the Bruins, or we'd be getting battered by them in their run for the Presidents' Trophy.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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We have a disturbing two-game slate ahead of us Friday night, with both contests projected to be lopsided affairs. Thankfully, the NHL makes up for it with a 15-game whopper Saturday.

Let's look at a couple of my favorite plays for the next two days.

Blackhawks (+360) @ Panthers (-450)
Mar. 10, 7:00 p.m. EST

All signs point toward the Panthers trouncing the Blackhawks in this contest. Florida's underlying metrics are significantly better, the talent gap is substantial, and the club is desperate for points. Meanwhile, Chicago has more incentive to lose games than win them.

Unfortunately, there isn't much value in backing the Panthers - even on the puckline - in this spot. Luckily, there's a way to side with Florida while still getting value - the first-period market.

The Panthers are one of the better offensive teams in the league, and they generally start fast. They rank in the top 10 when it comes to scoring goals in the opening frame.

The same can't be said of the Blackhawks. They're notoriously slow starters, scoring a league-worst 40 first-period goals through 64 games.

That's not because Chicago has tried to play a low-event contest and keep things tight early. The Blackhawks have given up a ton of goals in the first period. Only the Canucks and Ducks have conceded more often in the opening frame this season.

With the Panthers feeling good about themselves following imperative wins over the Penguins and Golden Knights and every point holding so much value, I don't think they'll want to beat around the bush in this spot.

Expect Florida to come out and take the game to Chicago early.

Bet: Panthers first period -0.5 (-120)

Senators (TBD) @ Canucks (TBD)
Mar. 11, 10:00 p.m. EST

Save for a complete dud against the Blackhawks, the Senators continue to chug along in their quest for a wild-card spot.

The game turned into a sweat, but we successfully backed the Senators as road 'dogs Thursday against the Kraken. Ottawa generated 4.2 expected goals in the contest, which is no small feat against Seattle's usually stout defensive team.

Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, newcomer Jakob Chychrun, and the Sens' top players continue to drive the bus and prove too much to handle for the opposition nightly.

It hasn't much mattered that the bottom six lacks scoring punch and the ability to drive play. Ottawa has still won seven of 10 games and outplayed its opponent more often than not in the process.

I expect more of the same Saturday night against the Canucks. Even with the added structure under Rick Tocchet, I don't see Vancouver's defense holding up against all the firepower the Senators possess. I also don't see enough depth on the Canucks to exploit Ottawa's lack thereof in that area.

This matchup could also get a little sweaty, especially if Thatcher Demko is on his game. But when all is said and done, I expect the Senators to ride their lethal top six to another much-needed victory.

Bet: Senators ML (expected range: -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Although we have only two games on Friday's slate, there are a few props on the board that really stand out. Let's take a closer look.

Mikael Backlund over 3.5 shots (+110)

Backlund is one of the hottest shooters in the NHL right now. His line recently jumped from 2.5 shots to 3.5 shots and it hasn't seemed to matter; he has cleared it in nine of his past 10 games.

The underrated two-way pivot has averaged 6.4 shot attempts per game during this hot streak, which is nearly 1.5 higher than his season average to date.

While 6.4 attempts may not seem like high volume for somebody who needs four shots, Backlund is effective at driving the net and getting the puck into high-danger areas. It's easier to hit the target from close range with fewer obstacles in between the puck and the netminder.

Getting the puck to the slot shouldn't be a problem against the Anaheim Ducks. No team has given up more shot volume, or quality, on a per game basis this season.

With the Winnipeg Jets stumbling over themselves, the door has crept open for the Flames to really push for a playoff spot. This game is imperative for them, and I think we're going to see that urgency in their play.

Expect the Flames to put up 40+ shots in this game, and for Backlund to take his fair share of them.

Carter Verhaeghe over 3.5 shots (+105)

Verhaeghe is another underrated player in the midst of an absolute heater, at least on home ice.

He has generated four shots on goal or more in nine of the past 10 games in Florida, averaging a whopping 4.8 in that span. He has put up at least five shots seven times in that span so he's not just squeaking by. Verhaeghe is getting the job done with room to spare.

I don't see that changing Friday night against the Chicago Blackhawks. For one, Verhaeghe was recently reunited with Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett. His shot rate is at its highest with those two players.

Trying to slow Verhaeghe will be a putrid Blackhawks team that is playing terrible defensive hockey. At five-on-five, only four teams have conceded shots at a higher clip over the past 10 games.

With the Blackhawks bleeding volume, and Verhaeghe lights out at home, he should be able to remain red hot.

Sam Reinhart over 2.5 shots (-145)

Like Verhaeghe, Reinhart is another Panthers player who does his best work on home ice.

He has recorded three shots or more in eight of his last 10 home dates, coming just one shy in both of the exceptions (while combining to miss the target five times). We could easily be looking at a 10-for-10 situation.

Reinhart's volume has been through the roof in Florida. He has averaged 6.8 attempts over his last 10 home dates, compared to just 4.8 on the road. A massive swing.

The Blackhawks are a bad defensive team and paper thin. Playing on the third line, Reinhart should have advantageous matchups against porous depth pieces all night long.

Look for him to take advantage.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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The Philadelphia Flyers fired general manager Chuck Fletcher after four-plus seasons at the helm, the club announced Friday.

Daniel Briere will take over the position on an interim basis, but the organization will begin its search immediately for a GM and president of hockey operations.

"The Philadelphia Flyers organization has always been defined by grit, determination, and a standard of excellence," said Dave Scott, governor of the Flyers. "Over the past several seasons, our team simply has not lived up to that standard, so today, we will begin to chart a new path forward under a new leadership structure for hockey operations.

"Chuck faced significant challenges during his time as president and general manager, including some that were outside of his control, but we have reached a point at which we must move in a different direction and look to the future under new leadership."

The Flyers went 141-145-48 under Fletcher's guidance, making the playoffs once. Philly went to Game 7 of the second round in the postseason bubble in 2020 but followed up by finishing sixth and eighth in the Metropolitan Division over the next two seasons. The down years included three losing streaks of at least 10 games.

Fletcher has been under fire lately after an underwhelming trade deadline in which he failed to sell off any assets to help Philadelphia's rebuild. He also drew criticism over the offseason for signing Rasmus Ristolainen to a five-year $25-million deal and bringing in controversial defenseman Tony DeAngelo on a two-year pact.

Briere hasn't been an NHL GM before, but was named a special assistant to Fletcher last year. He interviewed for the Montreal Canadiens' position before they hired Kent Hughes, and he ran the ECHL's Maine Mariners for several seasons. As a player, he notched 696 points in 973 career games, including 283 in 364 contests over six seasons as a Flyer.

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Bruins head coach Jim Montgomery hasn't had to speak to the media after a loss very often this campaign thanks to Boston's 49-9-5 record, but he wasn't about to let his team off the hook following Thursday's 3-2 defeat to the Edmonton Oilers.

"I thought they outworked us, they outplayed us, and outcoached us," he told reporters after the game, according to Boston Hockey Now's Joe Haggerty. "I thought we were a non-competitive offensive team tonight."

The Oilers joined exclusive company with the victory, becoming just the third visiting team to beat the commanding Bruins in regulation in 2022-23. Edmonton also put an end to Boston's 10-game win streak.

The significance of the result wasn't lost on Oilers rookie goaltender Stuart Skinner, who made 26 saves in the victory.

"It felt very, very nice, if I'm gonna be honest. I was very excited after the game," he said. "The guys were smiling coming to the net after the win, and I was doing the same thing back to them. I was pretty excited, so this one feels really good."

He added, "They're such a good team. They're a hard-hitting team. You know what Boston's going to bring every single night, especially in their own building, so being able to steal two points is huge."

Brad Marchand opened the scoring with his 20th goal of the campaign, and the Bruins carried a 2-0 lead into the second period thanks to a buzzer-beater from David Pastrnak.

Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard halved the deficit midway through the middle frame before Ryan McLeod leveled the game early in the third. But Edmonton was in for a challenge - prior to Thursday's contest, Boston hadn't lost a game in regulation when it'd been leading after two periods.

Darnell Nurse bucked that trend with just under five minutes remaining in the contest by beating goaltender Jeremy Swayman from distance.

"We've got confidence in our group," Nurse said. "I was saying this morning, 'We can play with anyone in this league.' But I mean it's one thing to say it, it's another thing to go out there and do it, and we did tonight."

Superstar Connor McDavid was shaken up after a knee-on-knee collision with teammate Derek Ryan late in the third period but ultimately returned to the contest.

Head coach Jay Woodcroft didn't see what happened but noted that McDavid "felt good enough to finish the game," per The Associated Press' Jimmy Golen.

The Bruins held both McDavid and Leon Draisaitl off the scoresheet. It was the first time all season that Edmonton won a game without the high-powered duo recording a point.

The Oilers hold the top wild-card spot in the Western Conference with a record of 36-22-8. They've won four of their last five games.

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Minnesota Wild star Kirill Kaprizov is expected to miss three-to-four weeks with a lower-body injury, the team announced Thursday.

Kaprizov exited Wednesday's clash against the Winnipeg Jets after getting tangled up with defenseman Logan Stanley.

The 6-foot-7 rearguard barged into Kaprizov while the winger had the puck and appeared to put his full weight on him as the pair went down to the ice. Kaprizov's legs split awkwardly.

Kaprizov, 25, leads Minnesota with 39 goals and 74 points in 65 contests while pacing all Wild forwards in average ice time (21:06).

The Wild recalled forward Sammy Walker from the AHL shortly after announcing Kaprizov's injury.

Heading into Thursday's slate, Minnesota was second in the Central Division with a record of 37-21-7. The Wild are tied with the Stars with 81 points, but Dallas has one game in hand.

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