Last we convened, we were wrapping up the unofficial first half of the NHL season, managing a 10-10 week through six days of daily picks that netted +1 unit. Neither element of that short-term record is all that impressive, but if we managed to finish every week in the black, we'd gladly take it.

The randomness of betting hockey - particularly in the regular season when the game fundamentally changes if it's tied through 60 minutes - makes it hard to pick games at better than a 50-50 rate. So why make it difficult for yourself by betting on teams that average -150 or higher? Why set the bar of success at 60% when you don't have to?

Of course, setting the bar for profitability at or below .500 means betting plus-money underdogs - the worst team in the matchup. And sure, those teams win all the time. The problem is trying to make a case, in print or aloud, for the underdog in matchups like Ducks-Avalanche, Blue Jackets-Oilers, Senators-Maple Leafs, and Blackhawks-Flames: all games the underdog won in the week leading up to the All-Star break.

We know the favorite isn't 100% guaranteed to win any NHL game, but how can you make an argument for why tonight is the night the road underdog shocks its high-caliber opponent?

That's where comparative pricing comes in. The only real argument for backing the Ducks to fly into Denver to beat Colorado is the fact our numbers suggest that Anaheim wins 29 times out of 100, but the moneyline suggests the Ducks pull off the upset 24 times out of 100.

That 5% disparity might not pay off in one game, but we're not actually betting one game: We're betting hundreds of games over the course of a season and over the course of our betting life. Sometimes those ugly, uncomfortable bets are on teams from Anaheim. Sometimes they're from Columbus, Ottawa, and Chicago. In all of those bets, we expect those teams probably lose that night, but over a large enough sample size - our lifetime - they win slightly more than the market suggests, and a sub-.500 record on the ice still provides a positive margin in the betting ledger.

With the stretch run upon us, we'll match the intensity of the playoff push with biweekly articles - Monday weekday and Friday weekend editions - of our price comparison tool in an effort to be as accurate as possible.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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There are six games on the menu Monday night as the NHL returns from its All-Star break. That means there are plenty of player props to comb through.

Let's dive into a few that stand out from the pack.

Nikita Kucherov over 3.5 shots (+110)

Death, taxes, and backing Nikita Kucherov against the Florida Panthers. He has hit the over in four of his last five games against the Panthers, including both meetings this year.

Kucherov combined for 15 attempts during those games and registered seven or more in each. That's the kind of volume you want to see when backing a shot total of 3.5.

I expect Kucherov will be able to exploit the Panthers once again. At five-on-five, they've been one of the worst teams in the NHL at suppressing Grade A chances over the last 10 games.

Perhaps more importantly, only the Arizona Coyotes have spent more time shorthanded per game this season. There should be plenty of chances for Tampa's power play to go to work and Kucherov is one of the key trigger men.

Jason Robertson over 3.5 shots (-110)

The Dallas Stars' sniper has been a lethal shot generator this year, especially on home soil. Robertson has recorded an average of 4.5 shots per game in Dallas and has hit the over on his shot total 67% of the time, well above what he has managed on the road (44%).

Robertson's home cooking should certainly continue in a mouthwatering matchup against the Anaheim Ducks. They have shown no signs of improvement defensively, ranking last in shot suppression over the last 10 games and conceding an average of more than 40 shots per game in that time.

For perspective, the Chicago Blackhawks rank 31st and have allowed four fewer shots per contest in that time.

The ice should be heavily tilted in Dallas' favor from start to finish and Robertson will be the primary shooting threat. At home, I'd likely play Robertson -110 against any team in the league. To get that price in such an advantageous matchup is a gift.

Jack Hughes over 4.5 shots (+100)

Jack Hughes was one of the league's best shot generators leading up to the break. No. 86 has been particularly dangerous on home ice, averaging 5.5 shots on more than eight attempts over the last 10 in New Jersey.

Hughes is in a good spot to continue his success against the Vancouver Canucks. They are an exploitable team at the best of times. With Bo Horvat traded, and Ilya Mikheyev done for the season, the Canucks should have an even more difficult time controlling their share of the play.

I expect the New Jersey Devils to dominate the puck in this game and it is Hughes who facilitates anything and everything - at even-strength and on the power play - for the red and black.

Hughes made a mockery of the Canucks' defense last time they faced each other, generating eight shots on 11 attempts with the help of no power play time.

The Canucks are very immobile on the back end and they struggle moving the puck. That's a recipe for disaster against Hughes, whose speed causes problems for anybody standing in front of him.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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With the All-Star break behind us, the unofficial start of the season's second half begins Monday night.

We have a fairly juicy six-game slate on the docket as the NHL returns to action. Let's take a look at a couple that stand out.

Islanders (-130) @ Flyers (+110)

The Islanders have won only three of their last 10 games and sit outside of the playoffs as a result.

There's plenty of reason to believe they can get back on track Monday night against the Flyers.

First and foremost, the Flyers are vulnerable defensively. At five-on-five over the last 10 games, they rank bottom five in shot suppression and bottom 10 in high-danger chance prevention. They're making life very difficult for Carter Hart.

The Islanders aren't exactly world-beaters offensively, but the Flyers are the kind of team that can bring out their opponents' ceiling. Not to mention, New York should get a big-time spark with Bo Horvat debuting on the top line alongside Mathew Barzal.

Horvat has converted an unsustainably high percentage of his shots this season. Still, he provides some much-needed pop at even strength and is one of the league's better skaters below the dots on the power play. Even a small boost to the team's offense would go a long way with Ilya Sorokin between the pipes.

Sorokin ranks second in the NHL in goals saved above expected this season and has caused the Flyers nothing but problems since entering the NHL. He has won seven of his last nine games against Philadelphia and conceded just two goals in both defeats.

I expect him to severely limit Philadelphia's offense once again. If he can do that and Horvat can provide a spark to New York's attack, the Islanders should pick up an important win.

Bet: Islanders (-125)

Lightning (-125) @ Panthers (+105)

The Lightning once again look the part of Stanley Cup contenders. They were a little slow out of the gate, treading water over the season's first 14 games.

Since then, they've been as good as any team. The Bolts are just a win back of the Bruins for the league lead in that time, and they've played two fewer games.

The offense - led by Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Brayden Point - is steering the ship, as the Lightning have been unstoppable in the final third of the ice.

Tampa Bay has generated an average of 3.83 goals and 15.21 high-danger chances per 60 minutes across all situations. Both of those outputs are comfortably tops in the NHL.

That should be nightmare fuel for the Panthers given their current state. Only six teams have given up more high-danger looks over the last 10 games, which is problematic enough when going up against the Lightning.

Making matters worse is the situation in goal. Sergei Bobrovsky posted an .898 save percentage in January and has played two minutes of hockey over the last 20 days. Spencer Knight hasn't made an NHL appearance in nearly a month, and Alex Lyon is, well, Alex Lyon.

Either the Panthers start a netminder who hasn't played in an extended period of time - which tends to lead to a dip in performance - or one who's probably not NHL caliber. All three options are far from ideal in a huge divisional clash against the hottest offense in the sport.

Look for the experienced Lightning to take care of business coming out of the break.

Bet: Lightning (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Ron Hextall doesn't plan to part with a first-round pick or an equivalent to move salary out before the March 3 deadline.

"I would say that's not on the table," the GM said Sunday. "I haven't been asked for that, certainly. Conversations are starting to pick up (between) a lot of (teams) ... people are kind of looking to see what's out there ... but there's not a lot of teams right now that are looking to jump and kind of get down to the fine strokes here."

Hextall then reiterated he's not looking to jettison salary and later added that he won't make a trade unless he believes it will bolster the current club.

"It's really dangerous to feel like you have to make a deal because, quite frankly, you look at the history, and all of the sudden, you make a bad deal.

"(If) we can bring a piece in and we think it'll fit better with our group here and maybe connect a line, that's what we'll look to do, but ... I've never felt pressure to make a deal for the sake of making a deal."

The Penguins have numerous players on expiring contracts, most notably forward Jason Zucker - a pending unrestricted free agent with a $5.5-million cap hit - and defenseman Brian Dumoulin - a pending UFA with an AAV of $4.1 million - along with goaltender Tristan Jarry.

When asked if there was any scenario that could cause Pittsburgh to become sellers at the deadline and look at shipping out players like Zucker and Dumoulin, Hextall dreaded the thought.

"I certainly hope not," he said. "If we play the way we're capable of playing, I see us certainly making the playoffs. With injuries and with our inconsistencies this (season), it's a fair question, but ... when you look at our top players, for the most part, they've performed well."

The Pens hit the All-Star break sitting fifth in the Metropolitan Division by points but fourth by points percentage. They're three points behind the fourth-place Washington Capitals but have four games in hand. The club has suffered four straight opening-round eliminations in the postseason.

Pittsburgh has $18,430 in cap space but is projected to have $1.35 million of flexibility at the deadline, according to CapFriendly.

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The injury-riddled Colorado Avalanche will have two impact players back in the lineup when they resume play Tuesday against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Bo Byram and Valeri Nichushkin will return for Colorado's first game after the All-Star break, Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar confirmed Sunday, according to the Denver Gazette's Kyle Fredrickson.

There was even more good news for Colorado, as Bednar added that injured captain Gabriel Landeskog will be back "fairly soon," according to the Denver Post's Bennett Durando. Landeskog hasn't played at all in 2022-23 due to a knee injury. He underwent surgery in mid-October and was initially expected to return in 12 weeks.

Byram has been out for over three months, last suiting up for the club's 6-3 victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets in Tampere, Finland, on Nov. 4. The 21-year-old defenseman missed the next 38 games with what the team called a lower-body injury. Byram practiced in a regular jersey Sunday.

The 2019 fourth overall pick collected two goals and three assists over 10 games before getting injured. He was instrumental in Colorado's Stanley Cup championship run last spring, notching nine points while averaging over 19 minutes of ice time across 20 playoff contests.

Nichushkin has been in and out of the lineup in 2022-23 after re-injuring the ankle he had surgically repaired in November. Thanks to the lengthy break, the 27-year-old winger only missed the last two games following his latest setback.

Despite sitting out for more than half of the Avalanche's schedule so far this season, he's been potent when healthy. Nichushkin has produced eight goals and 10 assists in the 20 contests he's played this campaign.

Colorado has won seven of its last 10 games and sits fourth in the Central Division at 27-18-3.

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Bo Horvat has a long-term deal with his new team before even making his debut.

The New York Islanders signed the 27-year-old to an eight-year extension, the team announced Sunday. The financial terms weren't disclosed.

New York acquired Horvat six days ago in a blockbuster deal with the Vancouver Canucks. The Islanders sent Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty, and a top-12 protected first-round pick to the Canucks in the trade.

Horvat is in the midst of a career season. His 31 goals are tied for eighth in the NHL and already match his output from 2021-22. He has 54 points through 49 contests and is set to blow past his previous career high of 61 points in the 2018-19 campaign.

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Having entered the All-Star break on a hot streak, the Colorado Avalanche feel they're rounding into form in time for another Stanley Cup run.

"I think we can win it again," said Nathan MacKinnon, per NHL.com's Tracey Myers.

After cruising to the Central Division title last season and posting a dominant 16-4 playoff record, the Avalanche have struggled to find the same consistency this campaign. Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin, and Josh Manson have all missed significant time in 2022-23, but Colorado's recent surge has vaulted it into the second wild-card spot.

When the Avalanche are back at full strength, MacKinnon believes they'll be difficult to stop.

"I'll use it as an excuse, I guess, but when guys are hurt, it's like they were traded away for nothing, so we could use those guys back," MacKinnon said.

While the Avalanche are comfortable where they're at, they know winning another title will be more difficult than the last.

"There are a lot of good teams and a lot of hungry teams to win, and we know it's not easy," Mikko Rantanen said. "There aren't many teams that won back-to-back (championships). It's probably harder than it was last year, but we're ready for the task, and we still have a good team."

The Tampa Bay Lightning repeated as Stanley Cup champions in 2020 and 2021 before the Avalanche dethroned them last June. Before the Bolts did it, only two teams had gone back-to-back since 1997.

Colorado returns from its break Tuesday against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

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