Buckle up, it's just about trade deadline time.
There aren't many teams that wouldn't be well-served by making a move at or before March 3 at 3 p.m. ET, but we're going to examine five teams that really should make a swap.
Like, really really.
Note: Deadline cap space indicates the amount that a team's total cap hit can increase while remaining below the ceiling at the end of the regular season. All figures courtesy of CapFriendly.
Florida Panthers: Try and get a 1st-round pick
The Panthers aren't in the same place as they were during the last trade deadline. Not even close.
Here they are in fourth place of the Atlantic Division with no real hope of uprooting the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, or Tampa Bay Lightning for one of the top three spots. The Cats have been on a bit of a run as of late, winning six of their last nine games, and they currently hold the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.
There's a catch, though: The likes of the Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals, Buffalo Sabres, and Detroit Red Wings are, at most, four points behind Florida and they all have at least two games in hand. The Panthers are going to have to strictly adhere to their winning ways - with an extremely slim margin for error - to keep their postseason dreams alive.
So, if you're the 2022 Presidents' Trophy winners, what do you do? How they're going to approach the deadline is a bit of a mystery, but one thing's a near certainty: They won't be going all-in. The Panthers don't really have the draft capital to do so, anyways. They don't have a first-round pick until 2026.
Pick | Trade |
---|---|
2023 1st-rounder | Sent to Montreal Canadiens as part of package for Ben Chiarot prior to 2022 trade deadline |
2024 1st-rounder | Sent to Philadelphia Flyers as part of package for Claude Giroux prior to 2022 trade deadline |
2025 1st-rounder | Sent to Calgary Flames as part of package for Matthew Tkachuk in July 2022 |
To put it harshly, Florida's top selections in the next two drafts went toward a failed attempt to get past the Lightning in the second round of the playoffs.
Hang on, it only gets more complicated for the Panthers. Anthony Duclair hasn't played a game this season thanks to an Achilles tear, and he and his $3-million cap hit have been living on long-term injured reserve. Patric Hornqvist and his $5.3-million price tag joined him there in early December due to a concussion. Duclair's return seems imminent, while Hornqvist doesn't have a firm timeline.
The cash-strapped Panthers will be forced into action in order to stay cap compliant if they become healthy. They won't necessarily have to make a major trade, but if the Panthers have to move someone anyways, they should at least consider prying away a premium draft pick from contending or bubble teams. Florida might need to move one of Sam Bennett or Sam Reinhart to accomplish that.
Cap relief is coming for the Cats in the summer in the form of some unrestricted free agents exiting the picture, including Hornqvist. Florida will also shed around $5.3 million in dead-cap space with Keith Yandle's buyout decreasing and Scott Darling's coming off the books entirely. As a result, the Panthers are projected to have around $11.25 million in cap space, but there is an avenue here for the team to restock its draft cupboards a bit and reset for 2023-24.
Los Angeles Kings: Get yourselves a goalie
Projected deadline cap space: $3.517 million
With the Kings rumored to be in on the sweepstakes for Arizona Coyotes defenseman Jakob Chychrun, we opted to turn our attention to another area of need.
Listen, we all love an underdog story, and Pheonix Copley has been an astounding one for the Kings. The 31-year-old has helped stabilize the crease and boasts a shining record of 17-3-1.
However, between Copley, Jonathan Quick, and Cal Petersen, Copley is the only Kings netminder to own a save percentage above .900 on the season, and he's cutting it close with a .904. There isn't a positive goals saved above average value in Los Angeles right now between the three goaltenders, either, and the Kings also boast the third-worst save percentage (.902) and high-danger save percentage (.802) at five-on-five in the league.
Even though the Kings have been good enough to win a large swath of games under those conditions, it doesn't inspire much confidence for a team that wants to build on last year's surprise playoff appearance. The postseason picture is tight in the Western Conference and, as of right now, the Kings are relying on the Copley-Quick tandem to get them there. An upgrade would certainly be warranted.
What's more, with Quick's 10-year, $58-million pact finally coming to an end after this season, Copley and Petersen (who has been in the AHL for much of this campaign) are the Kings' only goalies signed for 2023-24.
It's imperative that general manager Rob Blake keeps his finger on the pulse of the goalie market at the trade deadline. Luckily, there seem to be options available, some of them even coming with term and previous playoff experience, the latter of which is something Copley lacks.
Potential targets: Jake Allen (Canadiens), Joonas Korpisalo (Blue Jackets), Cam Talbot (Senators), James Reimer (Sharks), Karel Vejmelka (Coyotes).
Pittsburgh Penguins: Fetch a 3rd-line center
Projected deadline cap space: $1.225 million
As of right now, the Penguins are outside the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Sure, they have four games in hand over the Panthers and New York Islanders, who currently occupy the two wild-card spots, but this isn't a comfortable position for the perennial postseason team to be in with the deadline right around the corner.
One thing that would certainly help Pittsburgh secure its 17th consecutive postseason berth is a functioning third-line center.
Simply speaking, the Penguins struggle whenever Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby aren't on the ice. Pittsburgh has gotten outscored 31-46 at five-on-five when the pair of franchise legends are on the bench while controlling just 47.82% of the expected goals and 47.43% of the shot attempts.
Pittsburgh doesn't have a ton of inspiring options to fall back on if Crosby or Malkin go down to injury. Its entire third line needs work, but Jeff Carter has mainly taken on the center duties and he really isn't holding his own anymore. He's only averaging 14:35 minutes of ice time per game, the second-lowest total of his career and a little over three minutes less than what he was seeing in 2021-22. At 38 years old, he still has one year remaining on his contract after this season at a cap hit of $3.125 million.
The Penguins could sure use an upgrade on Carter's 20 points in 53 games this season, but they don't have a lot of money - or a particularly deep prospect pool - to do it. They should certainly find a way, though, especially as they look to not only make the postseason, but also break out of the first round for the first time in four seasons. The Steel City doesn't have much time to waste, either, with its iconic core of Crosby, Malkin, and Kris Letang not getting any younger. While those three are still around, the Penguins should focus on more than just stumbling their way into the playoffs.
Potential targets: Max Domi (Blackhawks), Sam Lafferty (Blackhawks), Ivan Barbashev (Blues), Gustav Nyquist (Blue Jackets), Adam Henrique (Ducks).
Edmonton Oilers: Again, find a defenseman
Projected deadline cap space: $562,500
It feels like we're here quite a lot with the Oilers. Here we go again.
Man, Edmonton could use another defenseman, preferably one who can help keep the puck out of the net. The Oilers' offense leads the league with 3.75 goals scored per game this season, but they also allow the 12th most goals against per contest with 3.28. Of course, it's worth noting that some of that can be chalked up to shaky goaltending - Jack Campbell has been a bit of an adventure during his first campaign in Edmonton - but the Oilers would do well to shore up that blue line.
The four rearguards who see the most amount of ice time in Edmonton are Darnell Nurse, Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci, and Brett Kulak. The Oilers are, in some cases, barely breaking even in key underlying metrics at five-on-five when they're on the ice, and getting out-chanced in others.
CF%: Shot attempts for
SCF%: Scoring chances for
GF%: Goals for
xGF%: Expected goals for
Player | ATOI | CF% | SCF% | GF% | xGF% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darnell Nurse | 23:51 | 51.37 | 52.01 | 52.43 | 52.39 |
Cody Ceci | 20:24 | 48.98 | 49.09 | 48.15 | 50.25 |
Tyson Barrie | 19:15 | 50.03 | 52.06 | 52.11 | 52.48 |
Brett Kulak | 18:10 | 49.14 | 50.19 | 52.05 | 51.07 |
Now, it sure is fun to think about Erik Karlsson slinging the puck around with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl - apparently, the team agrees - but general manager Ken Holland said any deadline deals the Oilers make would have to be "dollar in, dollar out." Karlsson carries a cap hit of $11.5 million for four more seasons after this one, and that would be a lot of dollars in, dollars out - even if the San Jose Sharks (or a third team) retain some salary.
The Oilers might be better served with a more defensively-minded, cheaper option, seeing as their offense isn't the problem. Or, they could go for a defenseman that specializes in moving the puck who could get it out of their zone consistently to one of Edmonton's many, many weapons up top. Either way, there are some nice fits out there, some of whom come at a cap hit of less than $3 million.
Potential targets: Jakob Chychrun (Coyotes), Shayne Gostisbehere (Coyotes), Joel Edmundson (Canadiens), Vladislav Gavrikov (Blue Jackets), Erik Karlsson (Sharks), Jake McCabe (Blackhawks), Luke Schenn (Canucks).
Carolina Hurricanes: Go big-game hunting
Projected deadline cap space: $10.107 million
The Hurricanes are a dominant force in the Eastern Conference. They won a franchise-best 54 games last season and, with 37 victories under their belt with 27 games remaining in 2022-23, look primed to at least challenge that record this campaign.
Carolina is already a terrifying team, but it has the potential to get even scarier: General manager Don Waddell projects to have just a little over $10 million to work with to improve his team by March 3, so he should absolutely just go for it and add a shiny new toy to his forward group, especially in the absence of Max Pacioretty.
Pacioretty and his $7-million cap hit are currently on long-term injured reserve - hence the Hurricanes' bucketload of money - but it wasn't like that was in Carolina's plans when it acquired him from the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for future considerations in July.
The talented goal-scorer wasn't able to make his season debut until Jan. 5 because of an Achilles tear that he sustained in August. He played five games and proved what he could bring to the team by lighting the lamp three times, but he subsequently suffered his second Achilles tear in a span of five months, effectively ending his campaign.
Luckily for Carolina, though Bo Horvat, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Ryan O'Reilly are no longer on the table, there's still some top-end talent available on the market. Head coach Rod Brind'Amour's team hasn't made it out of the second round for the past three seasons, but one way to get over that hump would be to add a guy who looks like he could eclipse the 40-goal mark with his eyes closed this season - in case it isn't clear, we're talking about Timo Meier here.
The Hurricanes are at the very least sniffing around and have reported interest in both Meier and Chicago Blackhawks veteran Patrick Kane. Go wreak some havoc.
Potential targets: Patrick Kane (Blackhawks), Timo Meier (Sharks)
(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)
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