If we talk about NHL games as a series of coin-flips and then bet one lined like a 50-50 game, we probably shouldn't be surprised when it goes to overtime. The joy was palpable after the Hurricanes' overtime win against the Stars on Wednesday. But we're not geniuses for winning a bet after regulation, just as we aren't dummies for losing one. It's all in the name of making valuable bets and letting the chips fall where they may.

Bruins (-115) @ Lightning (-105)

We've alluded to this week as the moment our weekly betting guide comes alive. A Monday update would have shown our projected fair moneyline for this game at BOS +121/TBL -121. Since -105 is a better price than -121, the Lightning are worth a bet at an expected value of +3.4%.

We know why the market is high on the Bruins. They win. A lot. Boston's start to the calendar year is similar to its start to the season: 10 wins in 11 games. The Bruins are 38-9 on the moneyline, thanks in part to being third in the NHL in five-on-five expected goal share (xG%) at 54.7%. But their true dominance stems from their ability to turn even-strength high-danger chances into goals at a high rate while allowing opponents to convert their relatively few high-danger chances at just a 7.9% rate.

Who has the best chance of beating the Bruins? A team that creates a lot of high-danger chances and has the skill to convert them. The Lightning lead the league with 9.75 five-on-five high-danger chances per game, converting them at the same rate as the Bruins.

Since the Christmas break, Tampa Bay's even-strength metrics have been better than Boston's. The Lightning are top five in xG% and high-danger chance share, while Boston isn't. Once we break their moneyline records down by location, the Bruins' impressive 16-5 road record looks a lot like the Lightning's 18-5 home record. You can see why Tampa Bay is more likely to win this game than the moneyline suggests.

Pick: Lightning (-105)

Penguins (+100) @ Capitals (-120)

The formula we use to build our weekly guide suggests there's modest value on the Capitals, with a fair price just slightly higher at -123. But that's based on numbers accumulated throughout the entire season. Recently, there's been reason to expect more from Washington and less from the Penguins.

It's worth comparing expected goal share and the percentage of high-danger chances each team has generated at even strength, both before the holiday break and after:

The concern for Washington is that injuries are piling up again. The Capitals were without Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom for much of the season, and both are uncertain for Thursday night. T.J. Oshie and John Carlson are also out. Still, Washington has been the better team in expected goal share in five of its last six games, despite a 2-4-0 record in that time.

While the Capitals are banged up, the biggest injury is on the Penguins' side, with goaltender Tristan Jarry out until mid-February. That leaves Pittsburgh with Casey DeSmith back between the pipes after giving up six goals to the Panthers on Tuesday.

Pick: Capitals (-120)

Blues (-155) @ Coyotes (+135)

When the Blues were without Ryan O'Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Torey Krug, the market's rating of St. Louis went largely unchanged. When Tarasenko and Krug returned, the market didn't change drastically either. That inertia was rewarded Tuesday when St. Louis lost to the Sabres, mustering just five high-danger chances at even strength in the process.

Beyond a pair of modest winning spurts, the Blues haven't been good all season, healthy or not. The Coyotes aren't any good either, but the argument is the same as it was when we faded the Blues against the Blackhawks on Saturday: If both teams are bad, take the team priced at plus money. That's especially valid here, with the Coyotes hovering around .500 on home ice and likely to go back to Karel Vejmelka - their much better option in net.

Pick: Coyotes (+135)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

When the NHL announced its Reverse Retro series for the 2022-23 season in October, there was a rush to rank the 32 new jerseys. The New York Islanders' entry - a remix of an infamous 1990s look - graded well, ranked fifth, 11th, 12th, 15th, and 17th by various media outlets, including theScore.

The Islanders would have dominated the competition if the rankings had been based on origin story instead of aesthetics. The "Fisherman 2.0" alternate, which will be worn for the sixth and final time Saturday night, is a throwback to one of the worst (and shortest) runs for a major pro sports logo and jersey.

The original Fisherman, a quintessentially '90s graphic with a burly seafarer, three-dimensional lettering, and wavy stripes, was worn for only the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons due to a "comedy of errors." That's how Nick Hirshon, a longtime Isles fan and author of the 2018 book "We Want Fish Sticks: The Bizarre and Infamous Rebranding of the New York Islanders," describes it.

The critical "error" was the logo leaking months before the planned unveiling. The New York Daily News printed it alongside an article ripping the Isles for departing from their classic look and pointing out that the logo's grimacing fisherman closely resembled the mascot for Gorton's frozen seafood. At the time, the club was only a decade removed from four straight Stanley Cups, yet failing miserably under general manager and head coach Mike Milbury.

The Daily News article established a mocking narrative around the rebrand.

"I don't know if the fan base would have embraced the logo anyway. There would have been comparisons to the Gorton's fisherman by other people," Hirshon said. "That said, the Islanders made a lot of mistakes. They did not have focus groups or fan interviews before they finalized the logo. They also didn't really have a good sense of how the fan base felt about the original logo or that fans would be really upset about seeing the departure from tradition."

According to Hirshon, the Isles' market research was limited to minority owner Stephen Walsh asking his young son for his opinion of a mockup of the fisherman logo (thumbs-up) and a front-office executive holding up an early version of the jersey for a group of college students (50-50 approval).

Sports branding in the '90s wasn't as sophisticated as it is now. Plenty of franchises skimped on research. However, the Isles cut too many corners in order to save money, Hirshon notes, and generally approached the rebranding exercise from a delusional vantage point. For instance, they opted for a loud jersey in hopes that rappers might wear it in music videos on MTV. The front office also thought Billy Joel - the Long Island native who wrote songs about the area, including one about fishermen, "The Downeaster 'Alexa'" - might suddenly become an Isles fan.

"Jack Nicholson doesn't sell a lot of L.A. Lakers tickets. Spike Lee is not the one selling New York Knicks tickets," Hirshon said of the team's odd fascination with Joel, who didn't have an official relationship with the Isles, even after the rebrand. "You don't go to games because a celebrity is going to be there."

Fast-forward 25 years and the approval rating is significantly higher for Fisherman 2.0. The logo and jersey are sharper - the crest really pops off the sweater, for starters - and enough time has passed since the mid-'90s debacle that the once-maligned brand is a source of pride within the fan base. It certainly helps that the franchise is on better footing, both on and off the ice.

"Right now, some people, especially the younger generation, just view the Fisherman as cool and retro," said Hirshon, who did some historical research as a consultant for a branding agency that helped the Isles with the relaunch. "It does have a very '90s, in-your-face kind of feel. It's unabashedly a fisherman, someone from Long Island, who has this big grimace on his face."

As for the other 31 teams ...

theScore asked designer and sports branding expert Todd Radom to identify his five favorite looks from this season's Reverse Retro collection. Radom, co-author of the 2020 book "Fabric of the Game: The Stories Behind the NHL's Names, Logos, and Uniforms," volleyed back with six very different styles.

San Jose Sharks

Inspired by the 1974 California Golden Seals, the Bay Area's first NHL team, the Sharks went for a "super-inventive" look with this "deep dive into history."

"It all makes sense from a delivery perspective," Radom said. "You're teaching people something without slamming it over their heads. It's educational and cool-looking, and those colors and that word mark - the fact it says 'Sharks' instead of 'Seals' - makes it incredible. I give them huge props. Love it."

Florida Panthers

Radom sees some NBA City Edition uniforms, an NBA equivalent to the Reverse Retro, and questions some of the color choices. He'll ask himself, "Why are the Detroit Pistons in gray?" No such question was required here.

"I look at that beautiful blue color," Radom said of the Panthers' throwback, "and I say to myself, 'Geez, it looks just like South Florida.'"

Mix in the beautiful crest, which was originally a shoulder patch, and it's easy to picture a sandy beach. The club's embracing its status as a nontraditional market. "Maybe this couldn't have happened 10, 15 years ago. It sure wouldn't have happened 20 years ago," Radom said. "But the timing is right."

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights, a franchise only six years old, emphasized city over team with the diagonal lettering. The glow-in-the-dark feature is a fitting add-on.

Radom calls it "original," "very cool," and "ingenious," a dessert to the Golden Knights branding meal, seeing as he loves the team's home and away jerseys.

"It looks legit," he said. "It's got some gimmicks within it, but it's in a fun way and it works. It's Vegas. It should have some pizazz and sizzle and all of that."

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings made a huge nostalgia play and were smart about it, Radom says.

"The Kings played in yellow sweaters at home and purple on the road back in the day," he said. "To see it in white is awesome. It's something you'd think would have happened in 1967 but in fact didn't. It has relevance, it grabbed my attention, and all it took was that one little tweak to make it work."

It doesn't hurt that the crown crest is intricate yet not too noisy. It's regal.

Colorado Avalanche/Minnesota Wild

Radom grouped these two Western Conference fits together.

On the Avalanche's state flag crest: "I know there's people in Colorado who think the flag has been done to death. But I don't live in Colorado. I look at this and go, 'It's neat.' It's very bold and it gives me a good sense of place."

On the Wild's vintage color obsession: "I like how the Wild have stealthily transformed themselves into the North Stars. (laughs) Man, I just love the colors so much, and this is just something so unexpected overall. I mean, you're seeing a recolored Wild logo, which I think is very underrated."

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

When the NHL announced its Reverse Retro series for the 2022-23 season in October, there was a rush to rank the 32 new jerseys. The New York Islanders' entry - a remix of an infamous 1990s look - graded well, ranked fifth, 11th, 12th, 15th, and 17th by various media outlets, including theScore.

The Islanders would have dominated the competition if the rankings had been based on origin story instead of aesthetics. The "Fisherman 2.0" alternate, which will be worn for the sixth and final time Saturday night, is a throwback to one of the worst (and shortest) runs for a major pro sports logo and jersey.

The original Fisherman, a quintessentially '90s graphic with a burly seafarer, three-dimensional lettering, and wavy stripes, was worn for only the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons due to a "comedy of errors." That's how Nick Hirshon, a longtime Isles fan and author of the 2018 book "We Want Fish Sticks: The Bizarre and Infamous Rebranding of the New York Islanders," describes it.

The critical "error" was the logo leaking months before the planned unveiling. The New York Daily News printed it alongside an article ripping the Isles for departing from their classic look and pointing out that the logo's grimacing fisherman closely resembled the mascot for Gorton's frozen seafood. At the time, the club was only a decade removed from four straight Stanley Cups, yet failing miserably under general manager and head coach Mike Milbury.

The Daily News article established a mocking narrative around the rebrand.

"I don't know if the fan base would have embraced the logo anyway. There would have been comparisons to the Gorton's fisherman by other people," Hirshon said. "That said, the Islanders made a lot of mistakes. They did not have focus groups or fan interviews before they finalized the logo. They also didn't really have a good sense of how the fan base felt about the original logo or that fans would be really upset about seeing the departure from tradition."

According to Hirshon, the Isles' market research was limited to minority owner Stephen Walsh asking his young son for his opinion of a mockup of the fisherman logo (thumbs-up) and a front-office executive holding up an early version of the jersey for a group of college students (50-50 approval).

Sports branding in the '90s wasn't as sophisticated as it is now. Plenty of franchises skimped on research. However, the Isles cut too many corners in order to save money, Hirshon notes, and generally approached the rebranding exercise from a delusional vantage point. For instance, they opted for a loud jersey in hopes that rappers might wear it in music videos on MTV. The front office also thought Billy Joel - the Long Island native who wrote songs about the area, including one about fishermen, "The Downeaster 'Alexa'" - might suddenly become an Isles fan.

"Jack Nicholson doesn't sell a lot of L.A. Lakers tickets. Spike Lee is not the one selling New York Knicks tickets," Hirshon said of the team's odd fascination with Joel, who didn't have an official relationship with the Isles, even after the rebrand. "You don't go to games because a celebrity is going to be there."

Fast-forward 25 years and the approval rating is significantly higher for Fisherman 2.0. The logo and jersey are sharper - the crest really pops off the sweater, for starters - and enough time has passed since the mid-'90s debacle that the once-maligned brand is a source of pride within the fan base. It certainly helps that the franchise is on better footing, both on and off the ice.

"Right now, some people, especially the younger generation, just view the Fisherman as cool and retro," said Hirshon, who did some historical research as a consultant for a branding agency that helped the Isles with the relaunch. "It does have a very '90s, in-your-face kind of feel. It's unabashedly a fisherman, someone from Long Island, who has this big grimace on his face."

As for the other 31 teams ...

theScore asked designer and sports branding expert Todd Radom to identify his five favorite looks from this season's Reverse Retro collection. Radom, co-author of the 2020 book "Fabric of the Game: The Stories Behind the NHL's Names, Logos, and Uniforms," volleyed back with six very different styles.

San Jose Sharks

Inspired by the 1974 California Golden Seals, the Bay Area's first NHL team, the Sharks went for a "super-inventive" look with this "deep dive into history."

"It all makes sense from a delivery perspective," Radom said. "You're teaching people something without slamming it over their heads. It's educational and cool-looking, and those colors and that word mark - the fact it says 'Sharks' instead of 'Seals' - makes it incredible. I give them huge props. Love it."

Florida Panthers

Radom sees some NBA City Edition uniforms, an NBA equivalent to the Reverse Retro, and questions some of the color choices. He'll ask himself, "Why are the Detroit Pistons in gray?" No such question was required here.

"I look at that beautiful blue color," Radom said of the Panthers' throwback, "and I say to myself, 'Geez, it looks just like South Florida.'"

Mix in the beautiful crest, which was originally a shoulder patch, and it's easy to picture a sandy beach. The club's embracing its status as a nontraditional market. "Maybe this couldn't have happened 10, 15 years ago. It sure wouldn't have happened 20 years ago," Radom said. "But the timing is right."

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights, a franchise only six years old, emphasized city over team with the diagonal lettering. The glow-in-the-dark feature is a fitting add-on.

Radom calls it "original," "very cool," and "ingenious," a dessert to the Golden Knights branding meal, seeing as he loves the team's home and away jerseys.

"It looks legit," he said. "It's got some gimmicks within it, but it's in a fun way and it works. It's Vegas. It should have some pizazz and sizzle and all of that."

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings made a huge nostalgia play and were smart about it, Radom says.

"The Kings played in yellow sweaters at home and purple on the road back in the day," he said. "To see it in white is awesome. It's something you'd think would have happened in 1967 but in fact didn't. It has relevance, it grabbed my attention, and all it took was that one little tweak to make it work."

It doesn't hurt that the crown crest is intricate yet not too noisy. It's regal.

Colorado Avalanche/Minnesota Wild

Radom grouped these two Western Conference fits together.

On the Avalanche's state flag crest: "I know there's people in Colorado who think the flag has been done to death. But I don't live in Colorado. I look at this and go, 'It's neat.' It's very bold and it gives me a good sense of place."

On the Wild's vintage color obsession: "I like how the Wild have stealthily transformed themselves into the North Stars. (laughs) Man, I just love the colors so much, and this is just something so unexpected overall. I mean, you're seeing a recolored Wild logo, which I think is very underrated."

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The Colorado Avalanche acquired defenseman Ryan Merkley and forward Matt Nieto from the San Jose Sharks for forward Martin Kaut and defenseman Jacob MacDonald on Wednesday.

Merkley, a 2018 first-round pick, requested a trade earlier this month, according to Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli.

More to come.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry will miss at least the next two games.

Jarry won't be available for Thursday's road clash with the Washington Capitals or Saturday's home date with the San Jose Sharks due to an upper-body ailment, head coach Mike Sullivan said Wednesday, according to team reporter Michelle Crechiolo.

The Penguins' All-Star break begins Sunday, and they won't play again until Feb. 7, when they host the Colorado Avalanche.

Jarry was a late scratch for Pittsburgh's 7-6 win over the Florida Panthers on Tuesday night. Before that, he made consecutive starts after missing seven games because of an injury he sustained in the Winter Classic on Jan. 2.

The 27-year-old is 16-5-5 with a .921 save percentage - the latter of which would tie his career high if he sustains it - over 27 contests this season. Jarry ranks 10th in the NHL with 9.03 goals saved above average at five-on-five, and he sits 18th with 5.49 goals saved above expected in those situations, according to Evolving-Hockey.

Casey DeSmith and Dustin Tokarski will fill the void in the Penguins' crease.

Jarry has spent his entire career with the Penguins, who drafted him 44th overall in 2013.

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Why do we frequently use the term "coin flip" to describe certain games in the NHL? Well, at 9:30 p.m. EST on Tuesday night, six of the first seven games on the schedule were tied in the third period. The seventh was a 2-1 Golden Knights lead that the Devils tied with their goalie pulled a few minutes later on a seemingly harmless shot that hit a Vegas shin guard and went in.

We won just one out of our four bets last night, as both overtime results - the ultimate coin-flip situation - went the wrong way. New Jersey got its good bounce to beat Vegas in an evenly played game. Meanwhile, the Sharks dominated even-strength play against the Red Wings, as we hypothesized, with a 65% share of the expected goals and a 19-5 mark on high-danger chances, only to lose at three-on-three.

If those overtimes went slightly differently, the sun would've shone a little brighter this morning. Alas, the NHL is the ultimate long game - you have to let the sample size pile up to even things out.

Hurricanes ( -110) @ Stars (-110)

We can take a little extra time to break down the 50-50 nature of the NHL because, on a light Wednesday, there's only one bet worth making. Lo and behold - it's lined as a true coin flip. How fitting.

Here's a potentially controversial statement: The Hurricanes are the best team in the NHL right now.

The key word being "now," since the Hurricanes are still 14 points behind the Bruins in the standings. Overall, Carolina is first in even-strength expected goal share at 59.74%, way ahead of the Devils (55.86%) and Bruins (54.7%). After a 15-1 stretch, the Hurricanes are on a 4-4 run, but since the Christmas break, their five-on-five expected goal share is actually up to 62% (the Bruins are seventh in that time).

Carolina isn't playing Boston on Wednesday night, but the stand-out stat is its 10.5% conversion rate on even-strength high-danger chances. That below-league-average number could be why its results have waned in the short term. Being able to win games when you're not sniping at an unusually high rate will be helpful in Dallas against Jake Oettinger and the Stars.

Dallas allowed just four goals on 131 even-strength high-danger chances allowed since Christmas. That's absurd. The Stars win by keeping the puck out of the net - their offensive numbers are only middle-of-the-pack. Since the calendar turned to 2023, the Stars' five wins came on three shutouts and two games in which they gave up just one goal.

Arguably the most significant reason to back Carolina is the return of Frederik Andersen. He has a 4-0 record since Christmas and an outstanding 5.33 goals saved above expectation, which is actually better on a per-game basis than Oettinger's mark. Andersen's midseason return can match Dallas' stinginess.

If you prefer calling things a "slump" versus statistical variance, why not rely on the best team in the NHL at creating goals relative to how few it allows to be created?

Pick: Hurricanes (-110)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.