Welcome to the fourth edition of theScore's 2022-23 Norris Trophy Rankings and the third in-season version. New rankings are published once a month throughout the campaign.
These rankings focus on analytics and the all-around ability of defensemen rather than just points or reputation.
- xGF% = the share of expected goals a team produces while a player is on the ice at five-on-five
5. Rasmus Dahlin, Sabres
Previous rank: 2nd
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 10 | 29 | 26:21 | 52.0 |
Dahlin's come down to earth a bit after a scorching start, tallying just three even-strength points and a sub-50% xGF% in 10 games since the last rankings. His lack of discipline continues to be an issue, as he's racked up eight penalty minutes in those 10 games and pushed his total to 44 on the season. There's nothing wrong with playing with an edge, but the Sabres need him on the ice, not in the box.
The 2018 first-overall pick is still enjoying a spectacular season and is firmly in this Norris race, but several other players have pulled ahead of him over the last month.
4. Cale Makar, Avalanche
Previous rank: 4th
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 9 | 25 | 27:09 | 54.5 |
Makar had to carry a lot on his shoulders through December with the Avalanche's rash of injuries, and he's delivered. He's collected 10 points in 12 games with a 54.9 xGF%, and Colorado was able to tread water with a 6-4-2 record in that time.
But Makar's heroics and overall stellar play at both ends of the ice this season weren't enough to move him any higher on our list - that's no fault of his own.
3. Josh Morrissey, Jets
Previous rank: N/A
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 7 | 36 | 23:20 | 50.0 |
All aboard the Josh "Norrissey" hype train. Morrissey has put together an excellent campaign offensively, but some defensive red flags have kept him out of our top five in prior editions.
However, Morrissey has cleaned those up, posting a 56.8 xGF% and a much-improved 2.27 expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five since our last rankings. He's stayed hot offensively, too, with 15 points in 13 games in that span. Morrissey also leads all NHL defensemen 13.2 goals above replacement.
The 27-year-old has never even received down-ballot Norris votes in his seven previous NHL seasons, but that's certainly about to change during a career year.
2. Adam Fox, Rangers
Previous rank: 1st
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 7 | 31 | 24:59 | 58.4 |
Fox has been one of the most complete defensemen in the league this season. Among qualified blue-liners, he ranks 15th in xGF%, 19th in GF%, sixth with 9.6 goals above replacement, and first with 16.2 expected goals above replacement. He also sits third at his position with 23 even-strength points.
So while he hasn't been quite as dynamic offensively as Morrissey, his two-way play gives him the nod over the Jets blue-liner. But it's still not enough to close in on our list's No. 1 spot.
1. Erik Karlsson, Sharks
Previous rank: 3rd
| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 13 | 40 | 25:12 | 50.1 |
Yes, these rankings aren't just about points and reflect the all-around abilities of defensemen, but what Karlsson is doing offensively has more than made up for any defensive shortcomings in his game.
The two-time Norris winner isn't just a power-play wizard. His 39 even-strength points are the most among all NHL skaters - four more than second-place Connor McDavid - and 12 more than the next blue-liner.
The fact that he's on pace for 112 points is just flat-out absurd. It would mark the most by a rearguard since Paul Coffey tallied 113 in 1988-89. Scoring is up in the NHL (6.34 goals per game), but it's still way harder to find twine now than during the '88-89 campaign (7.48 goals per game). Even if Karlsson slows down a bit but still reaches 100 points, it would mark the highest by a blue-liner since Brian Leetch's 102 in 1991-92, when scoring was at 6.96 goals per game.
Karlsson is showing no signs of slowing down, either. He's amazingly racked up 18 points in 10 games and a 56.0 xGF% since the last edition of these rankings - all while playing for one of the worst teams in the league. Imagine if he was on a contending club! In that case, he would be the Hart Trophy favorite.
Honorable mentions: Miro Heiskanen, Hampus Lindholm, Filip Hronek
(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)
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