The Philadelphia Flyers were dealt a blow Friday night, as goaltender Carter Hart was forced to leave the 6-5 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes with an upper-body injury.
Samuel Ersson got the start in net for Philly, but he struggled and was pulled near the midway point of the second period after allowing five goals. Hart came on in relief, but his appearance was short.
Hart played just under 10 minutes in the second frame, stopping six of the seven shots he faced. The injury appeared to happen when teammate Rasmus Ristolainen knocked Seth Jarvis into Hart. He didn't return after the collision.
Hart entered the game with a 10-10-6 record and a .911 save percentage on the year, looking to bounce back after a couple of down seasons. Philadelphia is already shorthanded in goal, with regular backup Felix Sandstrom dealing with an illness.
The Los Angeles Kings opted for a roster reset a few years ago, adding speedy youngsters to replace plodding veterans and generally turning the page on the Stanley Cup triumphs of last decade. But management made it clear Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, and Jonathan Quick weren't going anywhere.
The plan was for those aging stars, with their lengthy and pricey contracts in tow, to be a part of the next era in L.A. Doughty's situation was the most complex because his deal was the longest (expires in 2027) and most expensive ($11-million cap hit).
It still stands out, actually. Doughty, now 33 years old, isn't quite as dynamic offensively as he was at 23. However, he remains highly effective in all three zones of the ice and is the unquestioned leader of a blue line featuring several under-25 defensemen: defense partner Mikey Anderson, plus Sean Durzi, Jordan Spence, and Brandt Clarke, who all shoot right-handed like Doughty.
Doughty's veteran-savvy play and hands-on leadership give him staying power as an organizational pillar. From afar, there doesn't appear to be a single person in the L.A. market criticizing Doughty's overall contributions. No one's calling him overpaid or underwhelming or lobbying for his departure.
"For those kids to have Dewey, it's hugely important," forward Alex Iafallo told theScore. "It's a mentorship, really, especially with defensive responsibilities."
Head coach Todd McLellan praised Doughty's dedication to the craft, rattling off habits younger Kings can absorb by studying No. 8's shifts. "The competitiveness, the precise passing, the ability to defend," McLellan said.
"Pride in defending is a big thing that isn't always found in young players anymore. Everybody's coming in, and they think they need (scoring) stats to stay. … Drew takes as much pride, or sometimes more, in the defending part. It's really good for our younger players, in particular, to see that."
The 2016 Norris Trophy winner and the runner-up in 2015 and 2018, Doughty's always been a first-pair guy. He's skating for 26:28 a night this season, the league's second-highest average but right around his career rate.
"He's very efficient," Durzi said. "If you watch him out there, he's not moving much. But he's always in a good spot. He puts himself in situations where he doesn't have to exert that much energy. That allows him to play that many minutes. One day, hopefully, I'll be able to incorporate that into my game."
Plenty of legit Vezina options
At the holiday break, roughly 40% through the season, one Russian, one Swede, and one American have emerged as Vezina Trophy front-runners.
If I were casting a vote right now, I'd have difficulty deciding between Ilya Sorokin of the New York Islanders, Linus Ullmark of the Boston Bruins, or Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets. All of them have fantastic numbers while shouldering substantial workloads. There's truly no wrong answer.
Gun to my head, though ... I'd go with Sorokin.
The Isles' transition from airtight defensive-zone play under Barry Trotz to leaky defense under new bench boss Lane Lambert hasn't affected the 27-year-old Russian. Ahead of Thursday night's games, Sorokin owned a league-leading goals saved above expected rate (0.49 per 60 minutes), according to Sportlogiq. This ability to rise to the occasion also shows in Sorokin's performance in high-leverage situations (.813 inner-slot save percentage, fourth among NHL starters) and night-to-night consistency (66.7% quality starts, tied for first among starters).
The case for Ullmark, meanwhile, revolves around his 18 wins and .937 save percentage, both tops in the league. The case against: One, wins are a team statistic, so take that data point with a grain of salt; Two, Boston is arguably the NHL's friendliest goalie environment, so his save rate is inflated.
The case for Hellebuyck, a native of Commerce, Michigan, revolves around dependability. He boasts similar basic and advanced stats to Sorokin and Ullmark while starting 25 of 32 games behind Winnipeg's league-average defensive environment. Hellebuyck's case is legit but missing any oomph.
A few Vezina dark horses to keep an eye on: Nashville's Juuse Saros (Finnish), the Rangers' Igor Shesterkin (Russian), and Colorado's Alexandar Georgiev (Bulgarian). I point out each goalie's nationality to highlight the diversity among the league's top stoppers. At the same time, it sure shines a light on the lack of standout netminders from Canada.
Hot backup goalie market
Young backup goalies Dan Vladar, Pyotr Kochetkov, and Stuart Skinner have all inked multi-year contract extensions over the past two months.
Is this a coincidence? A trend? A combination of both?
All three are between the ages of 23 and 25. All three were drafted outside the first round. All three are earning less than $1 million this season and had 33 games or fewer of NHL experience before inking the new deal. All three were scheduled to become restricted free agents this summer.
Most crucially to their respective clubs, Vladar, Kochetkov, and Skinner have all shown flashes of starter potential amid chaotic situations. Vladar re-upped with the Calgary Flames for two years at a $2.2-million cap hit as No. 1 Jacob Markstrom struggled. The Carolina Hurricanes secured Kochetkov for four years at a $ 2-million hit as regulars Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta battled injuries. Skinner and the Edmonton Oilers agreed on a three-year deal at a $2.6-miilion hit Monday as starter Jack Campbell, under contract through 2026-27, tried to find his groove after a horrendous first two months.
Is this a matter of teams trying to find value by investing in these backups before they take over the crease full time? Or does this mini-trend say more about the goalies seeing an opportunity while their value is high?
"It's a give and take," is how an assistant general manager working for another NHL team put it to me earlier this week.
"From the team's perspective, you understand the risk when you do these deals. They are unproven guys. But you're also really focused on the upside."
For instance, if Skinner becomes the unquestioned No. 1 guy for the Oilers and the club wins a playoff round or two, his extension, which doesn't kick in until next season, will look team-friendly. For that reason, the AGM was a "little surprised" Skinner and his camp opted to sign this early in the season.
"I guess the give and take there was that the team was going to walk Skinner right into (unrestricted) free agency with that four-year extension, right?" the AGM said. "He'll be a UFA when this new deal expires, so there'll be money waiting for him if he continues to make progress and becomes a true starter."
On the other hand, all three goalies likely salivated at the prospect of gaining security in the form of a one-way, multi-year NHL contract that included a hefty raise. In total, the extensions will pay Vladar, who's 25, $4.4 million; Skinner, 24, $7.8 million; and Kochetkov, 23, $8 million.
Regardless of trajectory, it's hard to walk away from guaranteed money, the AGM said. "That's a lot of money for guys not making much right now."
Ducks in worst-of-era territory
Technically, the Chicago Blackhawks are the NHL's worst team with a league-low .290 points percentage from 18 points in 31 games.
Peel back the layers of futility, and the Anaheim Ducks emerge as not just the worst squad in 2022-23 but potentially of the entire salary-cap era.
Anaheim has earned 21 points through 34 games for a .309 points percentage - still a depressingly bad rate. But the shock value can be found in two places: goal differential (minus-62) and regulation wins (three). The Ducks are on pace for seven regulation wins over the full 82-game season, which would be the fewest among the 548 teams to compete in the NHL since 2005-06. (The 2013-14 Buffalo Sabres collected only 11 regulation wins in 82 games.)
What's more, the defense-deprived Ducks are surrendering the most shots per game (37.9) and goals per game (4.2) of the cap era, while their special teams rank 31st and 28th this season. If you prefer advanced statistics, how about this doozy: Anaheim currently has the lowest five-on-five expected goals share of the analytics era (2007-08 onward) at an unfathomable 38.9%.
All of this losing increases the likelihood of the Ducks landing the first overall pick and drafting Connor Bedard. But losing this way certainly isn't helping the psyche of young, long-term core players like Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras.
Parting shots
Steven Stamkos: An early salute to Stamkos, who enters the holiday break with 497 goals in 954 regular-season games. The hockey world has been enthralled by 800-goal man Alex Ovechkin, and for good reason, so Stamkos' milestone chase has flown under the radar. With 46 players in the 500-goal club, the accomplishment isn't as prestigious as it once was. Yet Stamkos reaching 500 in his early 30s (he turns 33 in February) suggests 700 is possible, and there are only eight 700-goal guys. He's also a likable star and has always been a tremendous ambassador for the sport. He sniped 60 goals in 2011-12, a season in which just three others hit 40, and he authored an all-time playoff moment in Game 3 of the 2020 Stanley Cup Final. Remember when Stamkos scored on his lone shot of the postseason?
NHL officials: Weird week for on-ice officials. First, we watched referee Brandon Blandina let Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar talk him out of a tripping penalty. Then, linesman Dan Kelly was caught roughhousing Toronto Maple Leafs forward Michael Bunting at the end of a period. Both sequences went viral. And hey, I applaud Makar's sportsmanship, and I'm all for getting calls right, but there's something supremely odd about a referee taking cues from a player. Bit of a slippery slope, no? As for Kelly, he didn't injure Bunting, so it's ultimately no big deal. The shoving was over the top, though. Sure, Bunting's a pest, but there's no need for hero behavior.
Rasmus Ristolainen: Almost everything is going sideways for the 11-16-7 Philadelphia Flyers. Forward Kevin Hayes, the club's leading scorer, was a healthy scratch last weekend. On Monday, the Flyers announced Cam Atkinson, another key forward, would undergo neck surgery and be shelved for the campaign. Meanwhile, defenseman Ristolainen, who's being paid $5.1 million a season to contribute at least some offense, has failed to record a single point through 27 games, despite skating for 18:29 a night. For context, 519 skaters have played 300 minutes or more this year, and Ristolainen and teammate Justin Braun are the only ones without a point. Heck, 14 goalies have recorded a point, and a couple of them even have two.
Takes, Thoughts, and Trends is theScore's biweekly hockey grab bag.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).
It was another good night for our shot props as we went 2-1, putting us at 8-4 for the week.
Let's look at three of my favorite plays for a busy Friday night and hope to keep the ball rolling.
Seth Jones over 2.5 shots (-115)
Jones is heating up. He's registered at least three shots in five consecutive games, averaging four shots per contest over the stretch.
He's in arguably the best possible matchup Friday to keep his shooting success going. The Blue Jackets have conceded shots at a higher rate than all but the Ducks over the last 10 games. They're giving up a ton of volume.
With all the injuries Columbus is dealing with, the club should continue to bleed shots - even against a weaker opponent like the Blackhawks.
The Blue Jackets have been particularly bad at defending opposing blue-liners. No team has given up more shots per game to the position this season. That should be music to the ears of a gifted offensive defenseman who plays a ton of minutes like Jones.
There's also a little bit of a revenge factor here. Jones has faced the Blue Jackets once since the team traded him to Chicago. He registered four shots - and found the scoresheet - in that game.
I expect a similar result this time around.
Kevin Fiala over 2.5 shots (-135)
We have successfully backed Fiala several times during his insane shooting run at home. This game won't be played in Los Angeles - where his volume is generally higher - but there's still plenty of reason to get on the Fiala train again.
Fiala has gone over his shot total in five straight contests, two of those on the road, and averaged a whopping 5.4 shots on goal during the stretch.
If we extend the sample to 10 games, Fiala has hit seven times and leads the Kings in attempts, shots on goal, and scoring chances. He's red-hot right now.
The Coyotes are one of the worst teams in the league. They spend most games chasing play in the defensive zone and bleeding shots. It's been that way for a while, and Fiala has often taken advantage, hitting in four of his last five versus Arizona.
I expect one more big game from him before heading into the break.
Cale Makar over 3.5 shots (+120)
Makar is one of my favorite players to back for shots right now. With so many key players out for the Avalanche, the onus is on him to get up in the play and help create offense every chance he gets.
Without Nathan MacKinnon, in particular, we've seen Makar take off. He's registered at least four shots in six of the last seven games. He generated absurd volume over that span, attempting 10-plus shots in four contests and exceeding seven in all but one.
That should continue versus a Predators team that Makar has enjoyed plenty of success against. He's averaged 4.4 shots over 18 meetings against Nashville.
At +120, there's plenty of value in backing Makar to go over the number again.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
The 2023 World Junior Championship is just around the corner. After a strange summer tournament, the event is back in its traditional slot on the schedule and generating excitement thanks to plenty of highly regarded prospects.
To kick off our coverage, we'll review one prospect at the tournament from each NHL team.
Note: The Pittsburgh Penguins and Toronto Maple Leafs don't have any prospects playing at the 2023 World Junior Championship. All 30 other NHL teams have at least one at the tournament.
Anaheim Ducks
Olen Zellweger led the 2022 world juniors in scoring among defensemen. What can he accomplish this time? The Ducks' second-round pick in 2021 has been among the best offensive blue-liners in junior hockey for the past two years with the WHL's Everett Silvertips. Zellweger is set to feature on Canada's top pairing and power play.
Arizona Coyotes
Even with Dylan Guenther loaned to Team Canada, forward Logan Cooley is the one to watch from the Coyotes organization. Arizona fans have had a chance to familiarize themselves with Guenther during his 21 games in the NHL this year. But Cooley, the Coyotes' third overall pick this past summer, has not had that same spotlight. Averaging over a point per game at the University of Minnesota, Cooley needs to produce if the USA is to make an impact at this year's tournament.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins' prospect pool is devoid of potential game-breakers, except for one name: Fabian Lysell. The Swedish forward has made a seamless transition to the AHL after spending one year in the WHL. He's tallied 19 points in 20 games with the Providence Bruins to lead the AHL in scoring among U20 forwards. The 2021 first-rounder is set to play a major offensive role for Sweden.
Buffalo Sabres
The third of the Sabres' three first-round picks in 2022, Jiri Kulich has taken his game to another level each time he's suited up for Czechia. He potted nine goals at the 2022 U18s to take home tournament MVP and followed that up with eight points at the summer world juniors. Buffalo has three first-round picks at this year's tournament (2022 ninth overall pick Matthew Savoie was left off Team Canada), and Kulich has the best chance among them of becoming a top story at the event.
Calgary Flames
Finland lacks depth at center, which may open the door for Topi Ronni to slide into a top-six role. The Flames' 2022 second-rounder doesn't have gaudy totals - only two points in 10 Liiga games this season - but his solid support play should blend well with Finland's plethora of offensive talent on the wings.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes have a stacked prospect pool on the back end, and Finland's Aleksi Heimosalmi is a big part of it. The right-shot blue-liner has been impressive on the international stage, winning Best Defenseman at the 2022 U18s and tallying seven points at the summer world juniors. After a lackluster rookie campaign in Liiga, Heimosalmi has found his rhythm in 2022-23 to lead the Finnish pro league in scoring among U20 defensemen.
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks are contributing three members to Canada's blue line, including 2022 first-rounder Kevin Korchinski. While he may not play as much as fellow Chicago prospect Ethan Del Mastro, Korchinski - drafted seventh overall with a pick from the Alex DeBrincat trade - is the one to watch due to his electric offense.
Colorado Avalanche
With just five selections over the past two drafts, it's no surprise that the Avalanche have only one representative at the world juniors. Defenseman Sean Behrens was limited to one game at the summer event after being injured against Switzerland. No stranger to big moments - he captured the NCAA championship with the University of Denver in the spring - Behrens will look to make an impact on an incredibly deep American blue line.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Defenseman David Jiricek has been phenomenal early in his North American tenure. The sixth overall pick in 2022 has scored 20 points in 19 games with the AHL's Cleveland Monsters and got a two-game taste of NHL action in late October. Injured last December against Canada at the original 2022 world juniors, the Blue Jackets' top prospect will look for redemption as one of the top players at the event. He may literally play half the game for Czechia in the elimination rounds.
Dallas Stars
The Stars seem to have another second-round steal in forward Logan Stankoven. The diminutive center has torched the WHL this season with 44 points in 21 games, only getting outproduced on a per-game basis by projected first overall pick Connor Bedard. Stankoven impressed at the summer world juniors with 10 points and is expected to be the second-line pivot for Team Canada this time around.
Detroit Red Wings
Red Wings top prospect Simon Edvinsson declined an invite from Sweden in order to focus on the AHL campaign, leaving Red Savage as the lone representative from the Detroit organization at the world juniors. The 2021 fourth-rounder was named an alternate captain for the U.S. and will play an important role as a bottom-six pivot.
Edmonton Oilers
It's been an impressive rise for Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer over the past year and a half. Entering last season without a goal in his WHL career, Schaefer broke out with the Seattle Thunderbirds to sneak into the first round of the 2022 draft. He's continued his upward trajectory to produce at over a point-per-game clip in 2022-23. Schaefer is expected to play as a physical bottom-six winger for Canada.
Florida Panthers
Forward Sandis Vilmanis has had a productive start to his career in North America, scoring 11 goals and 24 points through 29 contests with the OHL's Sarnia Sting. The Panthers' 2022 fifth-rounder has a cannon of a shot and will need to pot goals if the Latvians are to avoid relegation.
Los Angeles Kings
It's funny what a year can do. Snubbed from last December's world juniors, defenseman Brandt Clarke needed to be loaned to Team Canada by his NHL team. The Kings' blue-chip prospect scored at over a point-per-game rate in the OHL last season and carried that momentum into training camp, earning an NHL gig despite Los Angeles' incredibly deep blue line. Clarke is Team Canada's best right-shot defender and will anchor one of its top two pairings.
Minnesota Wild
Forward Liam Ohgren enters the world juniors with a ton of momentum. The Wild's 2022 first-rounder is on a six-game point streak in Sweden's second-tier pro league, highlighted by a hat trick on Dec. 13. After captaining Sweden to U18 gold in 2022, Ohgren is set to play a massive role in Sweden's pursuit of a podium spot at the U20 level.
Montreal Canadiens
Few prospects are as fascinating as the Canadiens' 2022 second-rounder, Lane Hutson. The 5-foot-8 defenseman has had no issues translating his game to the NCAA, leading the Hockey East conference in scoring among blue-liners with 18 points through 16 games. His play as a freshman has caught the attention of many, including Team USA. Hutson's tantalizing skill makes him a must-watch for Habs fans at this year's world juniors.
Nashville Predators
Predators first-rounder Joakim Kemell was a major offensive piece for Finland at the 2022 world juniors, tallying four goals and 12 points to land on the tournament All-Star team. Just five forwards return from the squad that won silver in the summer, and Kemell was the only one who registered more than two points. If Finland is to repeat, or improve, on its performance, the team needs Kemell to be among the leading scorers yet again.
New Jersey Devils
The Devils have, not one, but two defensemen drafted in the top five at this year's world juniors in Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. While Nemec was selected second overall, Hughes will get the brightest spotlight. The fourth overall pick in 2021 was named captain of Team USA and could very well be the best blue-liner at the tournament with his dazzling skating and high-octane offense. Hughes was already playing well over 20 minutes per game at the 2022 world juniors. Expect that number to climb even higher.
New York Islanders
Defenseman Calle Odelius hasn't put up many points - just five assists in 26 gamesin the Swedish second-tier league - but he's been a quality player in his short professional tenure. Odelius' plus-11 rating leads his club team among blue-liners. Sweden will lean on the experience and strong play of the Islanders' second-rounder as it looks to find a mix on defense that makes up for the absence of three top U20 options.
New York Rangers
Forward Brennan Othmann appears to be the lucky left winger that gets to play alongside Shane Wright and Connor Bedard. The Rangers' first-rounder has received reps in that spot through Canada's camp, which comes as little surprise. Othmann played on the same line as Wright at the U16 level with Don Mills and at the 2021 U18s. After bouncing around Canada's lineup in the summer, Othmann will hope to lock down that first-line position early on.
Ottawa Senators
Senators prospect Tyler Boucher hasn't matched the production typically expected of a 10th overall pick. He left Boston University after 17 games and has just 29 points in 41 career OHL games. But that doesn't affect his anticipated role with Team USA. The Americans brought in Boucher to be a physical, bottom-six presence with some offensive upside. His status as a top-10 pick will result in extra attention at this tournament.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward Cutter Gauthier's role for the U.S. will be clarified in the coming days. Gauthier shifted to center on a full-time basis with Boston College this season - a major reason the Flyers drafted him fifth overall in July - but he was stellar as a left winger for the USNTDP, playing with Logan Cooley and Jimmy Snuggerud. If Team USA reunites that line, it will be among the best in the tournament. However, lacking center depth, the Americans may play Gauthier down the middle to optimize their lineup.
San Jose Sharks
As is the case for nearly every team at the world juniors this year, goaltending is a massive question mark for Canada. Sharks 2021 third-rounder Benjamin Gaudreau has the inside track for the starting gig thanks to his international results: He had a .919 save percentage at the 2021 U18s while capturing gold and winning Best Goaltender. Gaudreau will hope he can find that form again and avoid replicating the .868 save percentage he's posted with the OHL's Sarnia Sting this season.
Seattle Kraken
No player is under more pressure to perform at the world juniors than Shane Wright. After falling to fourth in the 2022 draft and struggling to get consistent minutes in the Kraken's lineup, a star-level performance would do a lot to dispel the negative perception that has followed Wright for the better part of the past year. He'll have every opportunity to show his quality as captain of the Canadian squad.
St. Louis Blues
Few 2022 draft picks have been as impressive as Blues first-rounder Jimmy Snuggerud this season. The University of Minnesota freshman makes up one-third of the best line in college hockey, taking the ice alongside Logan Cooley and Matt Knies. He ranks second in the NCAA in scoring with 27 points through 20 contestsand leads the country with a plus-20 rating. Snuggerud will feature on Team USA's top line with Cooley, his Golden Gophers linemate.
Tampa Bay Lightning
'Mr. Irrelevant' as the final selection of the 2021 draft, Niko Huuhtanen has had his stock rise quite a bit in the year and a half since the Lightning selected him 224th overall. Huuhtanen impressed with the WHL's Everett Silvertips in 2021-22 and hasn't missed a beat returning to Finland. His 16 points in 24 games lead the Finnish league in scoring among U20 players. The power forward could be a difference-maker for Finland at the tournament.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward Jonathan Lekkerimaki hasn't been as impactful as expected early in his professional tenure, registering just five points through 20 gamesin the Swedish second-tier league. The Canucks first-rounder will hope to replicate his spectacular performance at the 2022 U18s, where he led the tournament with 15 points en route to Sweden's gold-medal finish. Lekkerimaki will likely play on the top line with his Djurgardens teammates Liam Ohgren and Noah Ostlund.
Vegas Golden Knights
Golden Knights seventh-rounder Carl Lindbom is in the midst of a breakout campaign in the Allsvenskan. His .936 save percentage is the bestin the Swedish second-tier league, and Lindbom's registered the mark as a starter who's played 21 games. Many of the tournament's top contenders have significant question marks in net; Sweden does not have that issue.
Washington Capitals
The U.S. has plenty of offensive defensemen who will provide excitement at the world juniors. But Capitals second-rounder Ryan Chesley will be tasked with keeping Team USA's end of the ice in check. The University of Minnesota freshman is expected to be an anchor of the top four and play a major role on the penalty kill.
Winnipeg Jets
There isn't a player at the world juniors with a wider range of outcomes than Jets first-rounder Brad Lambert. He could take over the tournament with his immense talent and remind the hockey world why he was once considered the primary challenger to Shane Wright at the top of the 2022 draft class. But Lambert could also struggle to make an impact and fall out of favor with the Finnish coaching staff, just as he did in the summer.
The Panthers have been a big disappointment through the first chunk of the season. Projected to be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, Florida has won just 15 of 34 games and currently sits outside of the playoffs. Injuries have played a big part, but even the team's biggest detractors wouldn't have expected this.
Although I don't think the Panthers are Stanley Cup contenders, they are - and have been - better than the results suggest.
Florida has done a lot of good things, particularly at five-on-five. Its share of the high-danger chances over the last 10 games sits above 56%, sandwiching the club between the Hurricanes and Devils. However, the Panthers' reward for their strong process was just four wins.
I think this is a nice get-right spot for them as they get set to head into the holiday break. And this Islanders team is quite flawed.
New York's power play isn't good. The club gives up a lot of opportunities at five-on-five. And tonight, the Islanders are playing in the latter half of a back-to-back.
That could mean a night off for Ilya Sorokin, who owns a ridiculous .924 save percentage and ranks third among goaltenders in goals saved above expected.
If Sorokin isn't playing, it'll improve the Panthers' already solid win probability by a few percent.
Look for the Fancy Cats to get a well-deserved two points and head into the break on a positive note.
The Oilers have won only five of their last 10 games, but they're quietly playing some strong hockey.
They've controlled better than 54% of the expected goal share and high-danger chances at five-on-five during this stretch. Both outputs rank them inside the top 10 in the NHL.
Edmonton is a very scary team when it's clicking at full strength because it always has a lethal power play in its back pocket. Normally, the Oilers' power play is used to make up for any shortcomings at five-on-five. But now, it can be used to build on what the club is accomplishing rather than just getting it back to square one.
I expect Edmonton to flex its five-on-five muscles in this game. The Canucks rank 23rd in expected goal share over their last 10 contests and have been anything but consistent all season. A get-out-of-town game in the latter half of a back-to-back is probably not where they'll find their footing.
Beyond having more high-end talent, a better five-on-five profile, and arguably the league's most terrifying power play, the Oilers should also benefit from a goaltending edge.
Stuart Skinner owns a .913 save percentage this season, well above the league average of .900. He's also a net positive in goals saved above expected.
Collin Delia, Skinner's expected counterpart, has managed a .888 save percentage through nine AHL starts this campaign. He conceded nearly five goals more than expected over eight starts with the Blackhawks last season.
Look for Edmonton's big guns to cause Delia real problems en route to a regulation victory.
Bet: Oilers in regulation (-140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Wednesday was another good night for our best bets as the Nashville Predators took care of business inside regulation (-110) and the underdog Edmonton Oilers (+120) picked up a multi-goal victory in Dallas. Those two wins push our best bets to 5-1 on the week.
Let's keep the ball rolling in the right direction with two plays for Thursday night's slate of games.
We successfully targeted the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday night when Tim Stutzle was out of the lineup. The expectation is that he'll be back centering the top line tonight, which means there's value in backing Ottawa.
The Senators are a completely different team with Stutzle in the lineup. Not only is he a fantastic player in his own right, but he also helps get the most out of Ottawa's other top players.
With Stutzle playing alongside Tkachuk and Giroux, the Senators have a whopping 66.8% expected goal share. That's over the span of 170-plus minutes, so it's not as if we're just looking at a sample size of a few games. They've been dominant over the long haul.
Stutzle's presence makes Ottawa's top line one of the best in the league and gives it a very potent top six with Alex DeBrincat, Shane Pinto, and Drake Batherson skating on the second unit.
They're now well-equipped to generate five-on-five offense against a stout defensive team like the Washington Capitals.
It's important to note that this is also a good spot for Ottawa's lethal power play. Over the last 10 games, the Capitals' penalty kill ranks 23rd in high-danger chances against and 25th in expected goals against, on a per-60-minute basis.
Ottawa's power play sits fourth in expected goals and actual goals during the same period.
I expect the offense to lead the charge and get the Senators back in the win column.
The Calgary Flames own a 5-2-3 record over their last 10 games but haven't been all that impressive.
Though they routinely win the shot battle rather convincingly, they do so by way of a quantity-over-quality approach.
Despite controlling more than 56% of the five-on-five shot attempts over the last 10 - good for first in the NHL - they come in around 47% with high-danger chances. They're getting more shots, but the opposing team often comes out with the edge in quality looks.
That stems mostly from an inability to really break teams down and generate grade A opportunities. Only seven teams created fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five over the last 10 games, just one of which is currently holding onto a playoff spot.
I'm more impressed by the Los Angeles Kings' recent work. They generated 106 high-danger looks in that time (ninth most) and controlled over 54% of the high-danger opportunities. Impressive numbers.
The Kings should be able to get the better of the Flames at five-on-five - although Chris Tanev's recent return will complicate their task - and there's also real potential for the power play to make noise.
Beyond the Anaheim Ducks, no team spent more time shorthanded than Calgary over the last 10. Penalty troubles are nothing new for the Flames, who've been one of the NHL's least-disciplined teams all season.
If the goaltending can hold up, I think the Kings have a strong chance of coming through at home.
Bet: Kings (+100)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
We'll aim to get back in the win column with three more plays for Thursday's slate.
David Pastrnak over 4.5 shots (-110)
Pastrnak is starting to heat back up after a bit of a shooting dry spell - by his standards, anyway. He's registered at least five shots on goal in four of the last six games, and his attempt volume is unmatched in the previous 10.
Pastrnak has attempted a ridiculous 93 shots during that span, nine more than the next closest player (Alexander Ovechkin). Patrik Laine is the only other forward above 80 shot attempts, so Pastrnak has been in a tier of his own.
Although the Jets are a solid team, they don't dominate puck control, nor are they bulletproof defensively. At five-on-five, they rank 18th in shot attempts against per 60 minutes over the last 10 games. Injuries to Nate Schmidt and Blake Wheeler won't help matters.
Pastrnak should be able to generate some shot volume at full strength, and he's always the primary target on the man advantage.
It's also worth noting that Pastrnak has an extremely encouraging history against the Jets. He's registered at least five shots in five of his last six meetings versus Winnipeg and netted nine goals in the previous nine.
Auston Matthews over 4.5 shots (-110)
Matthews started the season posting low shot totals, especially by his standards. He recorded five shots or more only four times over his first 19 games. As high of a bar as Matthews has to surpass each night (4.5 shots), that's very abnormal for a player of his caliber.
However, he's quietly turned a corner lately. Matthews has five shots or more in eight of his last 11 games and four straight on home ice.
Now Matthews draws an advantageous matchup at home against a bad Philadelphia team. The Flyers are among the worst possession and shot-suppression clubs in the NHL. They spend a lot of time on their heels absorbing pressure in the defensive zone. That should lead to plenty of shooting opportunities for Matthews, who generated eight shots on target in his only other meeting against Philadelphia this season.
Look for No. 34 to stay hot at home.
Kevin Fiala over 2.5 shots (-130)
Fiala is firing on all cylinders. The dynamic winger has registered at least three shots on goal in 11 consecutive home games.
He's averaged 4.36 shots per contest in that span, so he isn't just squeaking by.
Fiala leads Los Angeles with 48 shots, 54 scoring chances, and 73 shot attempts over those 11 games. No other Kings player is within 15 in any of those categories.
The Flames aren't a great team to target for shots at five-on-five, but they take a lot of penalties. That offers extra opportunities for power play shooters to go to work. It just so happens Fiala is also the Kings' go-to guy on the man advantage.
This is a sneaky good spot for him to find success again.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.