Slovakia rides 2nd-period outburst to upset U.S. at WJHC

Slovakia scored three times within a 3:19 span in the second period en route to a 6-3 upset of Team USA during Wednesday's action at the world juniors.

The U.S. carried a 2-1 lead into the middle frame, but Dalibor Dvorsky buried the equalizer midway through the period on the power play. Robert Baco gave Slovakia its first lead less than two minutes later, and Filip Mesar scored off a deflection 92 seconds after that.

USA outshot Slovakia 36-26. American netminder Kaidan Mbereko made 25 saves for an .800 save percentage in the losing effort, while Slovakian goaltender Adam Gajan dazzled with a 33-save performance.

Peter Repcik converted on a partial breakaway to pad the Slovaks' lead in the third period. American forward Tyler Boucher netted his second goal of the game on the power play and with the goalie pulled, but that's as close as the U.S. would get as Alex Ciernik iced the contest with an empty-netter.

Libor Nemec crashed the net to draw first blood for Slovakia in the game's opening minutes, but the Americans responded with goals from Boucher and Gavin Brindley in the first period.

Boucher and Gajan were named players of the game for their respective countries.

American forward Kenny Connors was assessed a five-minute major and a game misconduct after throwing a late hit on Slovakia's David Natny, while Baco earned a five-minute major for cross-checking.

The victory marked Slovakia's first win and Team USA's first loss at the tournament. Slovakia was coming off a 5-2 defeat at the hands of Finland on Tuesday, while the U.S. narrowly avoided an upset against Latvia on Monday.

The Americans will face Switzerland on Thursday, while Slovakia will play Latvia on Friday.

Team USA's loss wasn't the first upset to take place at the tournament; the Canadians fell 5-2 to Czechia on Boxing Day.

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Maple Leafs’ Rielly expected to return vs. Coyotes

Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe announced Wednesday that defenseman Morgan Rielly is expected to return when his side takes on the Arizona Coyotes on Thursday, according to Sportsnet's Luke Fox.

Rielly last played on Nov. 21 against the New York Islanders. He sustained a knee injury following an awkward collision with Islanders forward Kyle Palmieri in the third period that ultimately forced him to leave the game.

Despite his absence, Rielly still paces Toronto's blue line with 16 points in 20 contests this season. The 28-year-old is playing out the first campaign of an eight-year, $60-million extension signed in October 2021.

Rielly skated on a pair with Timothy Liljegren during Wednesday's practice. The long-time Leaf leads the team with 23 minutes of average ice time in 2022-23.

The Maple Leafs went 12-2-1 without Rielly in the lineup.

Toronto has dealt with a litany of blows to its defense corps this season, with the likes of Jake Muzzin, T.J. Brodie, Jordie Benn, Liljegren, Rasmus Sandin, and Victor Mete all spending some time on the shelf.

The Maple Leafs sit third in the league with a 22-7-6 record. The team also ranks within the top five of several key underlying categories at five-on-five, including goals for percentage (59.4), expected goals for percentage (54.2), and scoring chances for percentage (54.6), per Natural Stat Trick.

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NHL fines Leafs $100K for holiday travel, Keefe $25K for conduct toward refs

The NHL sent the Toronto Maple Leafs a pair of bills Wednesday.

Toronto was fined $100,000 for violating a rule prohibiting team activities over the holiday break, the league announced. Additionally, head coach Sheldon Keefe has been docked $25,000 for "demeaning conduct directed at the officials" during Tuesday night's win over the St. Louis Blues.

Article 16.5(b) of the NHL's CBA states Dec. 24, 25, and 26 are to be off days "for all purposes, including travel."

The Leafs were supposed to fly to St. Louis just after midnight ET on Tuesday, but they departed shortly before 10:30 p.m. on Monday, according to Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman.

The team's rationale was because St. Louis is at least a 90-minute flight, it'd be preferable to leave at night and arrive then as players are used to, as opposed to departing at 5 a.m., Friedman adds.

Keefe's frustrations boiled over early in the third period of the Leafs' 5-4 overtime win Tuesday. He initially appeared to be upset about a potential goaltender interference violation on the Blues' tying goal, but he was in fact incensed about a pick on Leafs defenseman Jordie Benn earlier in the play.

The Toronto bench boss also lost his cool when Brandon Saad of the Blues high-sticked Zach Aston-Reese late in the third period.

The Leafs are heading to Arizona to clash with the Coyotes on Thursday. They'll then fly to Denver to face the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday before coming home to host the Blues on Jan. 3.

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Boudreau: Canucks ‘starting to believe in themselves’

Bruce Boudreau wouldn't call it "swagger," but the Vancouver Canucks head coach can see his players gaining more confidence in their abilities after a disappointing start to the season.

"I don't like that word, but I think the team is starting to believe in themselves, and I think that's important," Boudreau told reporters Tuesday night after his club defeated the San Jose Sharks 6-2 for Vancouver's third straight win.

The Canucks have inched their way back into the playoff hunt with seven victories in their last 10 contests. Vancouver occupies sixth place in the Pacific Division but now sits five points behind the fourth-place Edmonton Oilers with two games in hand.

Bo Horvat produced his second straight four-point game Tuesday, having notched two goals and two assists both times. The Canucks captain has been spectacular amid swirling trade talk this season. He's tied for second in the NHL in goals with 26 in 34 contests, burying nine in his last 10. The pending unrestricted free agent is only five tallies behind league leader Connor McDavid.

The Canucks rank 25th in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five this season but 20th over the last 10 games, according to Natural Stat Trick. Vancouver heads to Winnipeg to face the Jets on Thursday before meeting the Flames in Calgary on Saturday.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Golden Knights to rebound vs. Ducks

We have a fun little five-game slate on the docket Wednesday night as we look to get back in the swing of things.

Let's dive into the best ways to attack it.

Golden Knights (-190) @ Ducks (+160)

The Vegas Golden Knights are banged up and find themselves in the latter half of a road back-to-back as they come out of the holiday break. Even so, I expect them to get a result in this game.

We've targeted the Anaheim Ducks all season long, and we're not going to stop now. Put simply, the Ducks are an unmitigated disaster. They rank 31st in goals for and 32nd in goals against, and their underlying numbers are equally painful.

At five-on-five, no team has allowed more shots, expected goals, or high-danger chances per minute than Anaheim both this season or over the last 10 games. There are no signs of improvement with this team.

Making matters worse, the Ducks are undisciplined. It's awfully difficult to compensate for horrendous five-on-five play when you're often shorthanded and struggle to survive when that's the case.

Injuries or not, the Golden Knights still rank in the top 10 in expected goal and high-danger chance share over the last 10 games. They've also been firing on all cylinders on the power play, scoring at a more efficient rate than all but the Edmonton Oilers.

This is a dream matchup for the Golden Knights as they look to rebound from a tough divisional loss Tuesday night.

There could be reinforcements on the way, too, as Jonathan Marchessault has been traveling on the team's California road trip.

Whatever the case may be, I expect Vegas to take care of business inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Golden Knights in regulation (-120)

Nikita Kucherov over 3.5 shots (-110)

Nikita Kucherov continues to be a player we target primarily on home ice. Although his hit rate is only 6% higher in Tampa than on the road, the process is much better at home.

He averages 7.6 attempts per game in Tampa and has generated eight or more on eight different occasions. On the road, Kucherov generates 6.3 attempts per contest and has cleared eight only three times.

Beyond Kucherov simply being more productive at home, there's a lot to like about his matchup Wednesday. The Montreal Canadiens aren't a good five-on-five team and, perhaps more importantly, they tend to offer opponents plenty of power-play opportunities.

The Canadiens have spent more than six minutes per game killing penalties over their last 10 contests, which ranks in the bottom eight in the NHL. They also bleed shots on the penalty kill.

Look for Kucherov to have a big night.

Alex Pietrangelo over 2.5 shots (-115)

Alex Pietrangelo has been a shooting machine since returning to the lineup. Through five games, the veteran defenseman has led Vegas with 34 shot attempts. He's also averaged better than 26 minutes per game and logged nearly 30 more than the closest teammate.

With so many key players missing for the Golden Knights, and against the Ducks, Pietrangelo's shooting ways should continue Wednesday night. Anaheim ranks dead last in attempts against per minute at five-on-five over the last 10 games. The Ducks have also paraded to the box during that span, spending a league-high 7:21 per contest undermanned.

This is a mouthwatering matchup for Pietrangelo. Given his current workload, he'll have every opportunity to take advantage of it.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Blues’ Krug out at least 6 weeks due to injury

St. Louis Blues defenseman Torey Krug will be re-evaluated in six weeks due to a lower-body injury, the club announced Tuesday.

The veteran will be placed on long-term injured reserve, and the Blues recalled blue-liner Tyler Tucker from their AHL affiliate, the Springfield Thunderbirds, in a corresponding move.

Krug was quarterbacking St. Louis' power play, which ranked 12th in the NHL entering Tuesday. The 31-year-old has collected 17 points in 31 games this season and was on a four-game point streak in which he posted five assists.

The Michigan-born rearguard is in his third campaign with the Blues after signing a seven-year, $45.5-million contract as a free agent in October 2020. Krug played his first seven full seasons with the Boston Bruins. They signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2012. Krug was a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award (the NCAA's top individual honor in men's hockey) that same year.

Krug is one of the most consistent point producers among defensemen. He's registered at least 39 points in eight of his previous nine full campaigns and 49 or more in four of them.

St. Louis was already off to a disappointing start to this campaign. The Blues enter Tuesday's clash with the Toronto Maple Leafs sitting in sixth place in the Central Division by points percentage with a record of 16-16-2. Their minus-19 goal differential ranks eighth-worst, and their 46.87 expected goals for percentage is the ninth-worst mark in the league, according to Natural Stat Trick.

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NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

The NHL had its Christmas break, but with the season poised to resume, I've got a gift for you: a chance to complain.

The whole "peace on earth, goodwill toward men" thing is over for another year, so without further adieu, here's my rating for each team from now through the rest of the year. Perfect for something to grumble about.

How to read the ratings:

As usual, current standings are meaningless. That shootout win your favorite team earned in October doesn't help win games in February. This is not about ranking teams to this point; it's about who will be profitable from Dec. 27 to April 14.

A rating of 1.00 represents a league-average team. If your favorite team gets a higher rating - a 1.05, for example - that club can be expected to be 5% better than a league-average team from here on out. In turn, squads rated at 0.95 are expected to be 5% worse than the average team. In betting terms, a team that's 5% better than its opponent would be -111 on the moneyline before a sportsbook applies the vigorish.

TEAM PRESEASON RATING RATING NOW
Toronto Maple Leafs 1.17 1.21
Carolina Hurricanes 1.12 1.19
Florida Panthers 1.15 1.19
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.13 1.15
Boston Bruins 1.05 1.15
New Jersey Devils 1.00 1.15
Colorado Avalanche 1.22 1.13
Calgary Flames 1.12 1.11
Minnesota Wild 1.09 1.10
Vegas Golden Knights 1.06 1.09
New York Rangers 1.09 1.09
Pittsburgh Penguins 1.11 1.08
Edmonton Oilers 1.12 1.07
Los Angeles Kings 1.06 1.06
Dallas Stars 1.03 1.04
Washington Capitals 1.03 1.03
Nashville Predators 1.06 1.03
Winnipeg Jets 0.97 0.99
New York Islanders 1.02 0.98
Seattle Kraken 0.89 0.98
St. Louis Blues 1.07 0.98
Vancouver Canucks 1.01 0.95
Ottawa Senators 0.95 0.95
Detroit Red Wings 0.93 0.92
Buffalo Sabres 0.86 0.92
San Jose Sharks 0.82 0.92
Columbus Blue Jackets 0.87 0.82
Philadelphia Flyers 0.80 0.81
Montreal Canadiens 0.79 0.81
Anaheim Ducks 0.87 0.79
Chicago Blackhawks 0.73 0.74
Arizona Coyotes 0.72 0.73

The left column shows where teams stood before the season. The column on the right illustrates how perceptions have changed and expectations going forward.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's still our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we'll adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

DATE GAME TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
Dec. 27 CHI@CAR +319/-319 CHI +404/CAR -302
WSH@NYR +147/-147 WSH +175/NYR -141
BOS@OTT -128/+128 BOS -123/OTT +151
PIT@NYI -104/+104 PIT +106/NYI +115
TOR@STL -120/+120 TOR -115/STL +141
DAL@NSH +116/-116 DAL +136/NSH -111
MIN@WPG -129/+129 MIN -124/WPG +152
COL@ARI -123/+123 COL -118/ARI +145
EDM@CGY +125/-125 EDM +148/CGY -120
SJS@VAN +104/-104 SJS +115/VAN +107
VGK@LAK +126/-126 VGK +148/LAK -121
Dec. 28 MTL@TBL +248/-248 MTL +305/TBL -237
BOS@NJD +143/-143 BOS +169/NJD -137
DET@PIT +134/-134 DET +158/PIT -128
CGY@SEA +112/-112 CGY +131/SEA -107
VGK@ANA -122/+122 VGK -117/ANA +143
Dec. 29 OTT@WSH +124/-124 OTT +146/WSH -119
MTL@FLA +113/-113 MTL +132/FLA -108
DET@BUF +143/-143 DET +169/BUF -137
NYR@TBL +119/-119 NYR +140/TBL -114
CBJ@NYI +195/-195 CBJ +235/NYI -187
CHI@STL +192/-192 CHI +231/-184
DAL@MIN +132/-132 DAL +156/MIN -127
VAN@WPG +127/-127 VAN +150/WPG -122
LAK@COL -111/+111 LAK +100/COL +122
TOR@ARI -204/+204 TOR -195/ARI +247
PHI@SJS +164/-164 PHI +196/SJS -158
Dec. 30 NSH@ANA -139/+139 NSH -134/ANA +165
NJD@PIT +104/-104 NJD +115/PIT +107
FLA@CAR +195/-195 FLA +234/CAR -186
EDM@SEA -103/+103 EDM +108/SEA +114
Dec. 31 BUF@BOS +191/-191 BUF +229/BOS -183
CHI@CBJ +117/-117 CHI +137/CBJ -112
NSH@VGK +161/-161 NSH +191/VGK -154
PHI@LAK +227/-227 PHI +277/LAK -217
MTL@WSH +166/-166 MTL +197/WSH -159
ARI@TBL +304/-304 ARI +382/TBL -288
MIN@STL -108/+108 MIN +102/STL +119
TOR@COL -133/+133 TOR -128/COL +157
OTT@DET +111/-111 OTT +123/DET +100
SJS@DAL +152/-152 SJS +180/DAL -146
VAN@CGY +200/-200 VAN +241/CGY -192
WPG@EDM +139/-139 WPG +164/EDM -133
Jan. 1 CAR@NJD +108/-108 CAR +119/NJD +103
NYR@FLA +108/-108 NYR +120/FLA +102
BUF@OTT +125/-125 BUF +147/OTT -120
SJS@CHI -120/+120 SJS -115/CHI +141
NYI@SEA +117/-117 NYI +137/SEA -112

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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