Maple Leafs’ Campbell to return vs. Flyers

Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Jack Campbell will return to the crease against the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday for the first time since March 8, head coach Sheldon Keefe announced Friday, according to The Leafs Nation's David Alter.

Campbell was initially slated to miss two weeks due to a rib injury, but he ended up missing three. Keefe announced Thursday that backup goalie Petr Mrazek is expected to miss six weeks with a groin injury.

Rookie forward Nick Abruzzese will also make his NHL debut Saturday, Keefe confirmed, according to Alter. The 22-year-old just wrapped up his season at Harvard where he scored nine goals and added 24 assists in 28 games.

Campbell was struggling before being sidelined, posting a save percentage below .900 in five straight appearances. Campbell said Friday that he suffered the injury on Feb. 22 and played in three games afterward, according to The Athletic's Jonas Siegel.

The 30-year-old has a 24-9-4 record with a .914 save percentage and 2.65 goals against average this season.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Canadiens’ Jordan Harris to make NHL debut vs. Lightning

Montreal Canadiens defenseman Jordan Harris will make his NHL debut Saturday night against the Tampa Bay Lightning, head coach Martin St. Louis confirmed Friday.

The Canadiens signed Harris to a two-year entry-level contract on March 26, a day after he wrapped up his fourth season at Northeastern University. The 21-year-old would've become an unrestricted free agent if he hadn't signed his entry-level deal with the club by Aug. 15.

With Chris Wideman a healthy scratch, here's how the Canadiens' defensive pairs could look Saturday with Harris in the lineup:

LD RD
Joel Edmundson Justin Barron
Alexander Romanov David Savard
Corey Schueneman Jordan Harris

Harris is a versatile defenseman with a solid two-way game. He can play both sides of the blue line despite being left-handed. He had five goals and 15 assists in 39 games with Northeastern University this season.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekend preview: Stars to shine in San Jose

We're heading into another busy weekend of games, with 16 contests scheduled.

Let's dive into a couple of my favorite plays as we look to rebound from a tough night with sides and totals (props went 3-0, at least).

Islanders (+150) @ Rangers (-180)

The New York Rangers didn't go big-game hunting at the trade deadline. Instead, they acquired a collection of quality role players to add depth to the roster and push fringe NHLers down - or out of - the lineup.

While it's still early, the returns look very promising. While normally highly mediocre at five-on-five, the Rangers have recently been dismantling their opponents. They've controlled over 57% of the shot attempts and expected goals over the last five games, ranking fifth in both categories.

All season long, the Rangers have been tough to deal with because of Igor Shesterkin and a strong power play. Now, they're showing the ability to not just stay afloat but excel at five-on-five. We're still dealing with a small sample size, but the results are about as good as they could possibly be.

The Rangers should be able to decisively control the run of play against the New York Islanders on Friday night. The Isles have struggled mightily at five-on-five of late, posting a putrid 42.03 expected goals for percentage over the last 10 games. That ranks them 29th in the NHL - ahead only of bottom-feeders like the Philadelphia Flyers, Arizona Coyotes, and Montreal Canadiens.

Additionally, the Islanders are in the latter half of a back-to-back and going up against a strong Rangers team with a rested Shesterkin between the pipes.

I like the home side to take care of business inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Rangers in regulation (-108)

Stars (-157) @ Sharks (+130)

The San Jose Sharks are playing some bad hockey right now. They've won just four of their last 10 games, and their five-on-five profile during that span is very underwhelming.

They rank 28th in terms of five-on-five shot share and don't grade out much better in xG, sitting 26th in the NHL.

Over the same period, the Dallas Stars have controlled over 51% of the xG share, good for 15th in the league.

Dallas managed those numbers while playing without Miro Heiskanen for a notable chunk of games. He's one of the best defensemen in the league and is a good bet to finish top 10 in Norris voting.

Heiskanen is very important to the Stars, and I expect his return to the lineup to make them much better. Considering how tight the wild-card playoff race is, Dallas needs every point it can get. That means taking care of business against teams like the Sharks.

Back the Stars to pick up their third win. If you want to do so in 60, I like that too.

Bet: Stars (-157)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekend betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 2-4

For the third straight year, the Stanley Cup Playoffs will start later than hockey fans are accustomed to. With the calendar's turn to April still leaving a month's worth of play, let's lay out our predictive power ratings for all 32 teams.

In order to read the power ratings, the first step is understanding that an average team would be 1.0. A club with a 1.16 rating, for example, is 16% better than an average team, while a club with a .82 rating is 18% worse. All ratings are an indication of what to expect from a club going forward and have nothing to do with its record in the standings.

TEAM RATING
Panthers 1.16
Avalanche 1.11
Oilers 1.11
Flames 1.10
Leafs 1.09
Lightning 1.08
Bruins 1.08
Wild 1.08
Penguins 1.06
Stars 1.06
Golden Knights 1.05
Hurricanes 1.05
Kings 1.05
Predators 1.04
Rangers 1.02
Blues 1.02
Islanders 1.02
Capitals 1.01
Devils .99
Jets .98
Canucks .98
Kraken .94
Ducks .91
Sharks .91
Blackhawks .90
Flyers .90
Blue Jackets .90
Coyotes .89
Senators .89
Sabres .88
Red Wings .88
Canadiens .82

The Panthers lead the way despite being second in the overall standings, but there's more intrigue down the list. The Rangers have gotten Vezina-quality goaltending from Igor Shesterkin, which has driven their placement in the standings. However, that's more difficult to sustain than quality team play.

The Hurricanes have gotten similarly great goaltending from Frederik Andersen. They also banked points early in the season to augment their place in the standings. On the flip side, the Islanders had a horrific start, but their rating here indicates they're better than their record.

The Oilers are rated much higher than their mediocre standing this season. Bet on Connor McDavid and Co. like a middle-of-the-pack team at your own risk. The Devils are also rated higher than their record, though they're on a different tier. New Jersey is closer to mediocre despite being in the bottom six. A strong finish is there for the Devils if they bring the effort required to compete this month.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

With the calendar turning to April, this season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 85% of our total rating. Basing 15% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel, and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near-coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.

DATE GAME WIN PROB.(%) TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
April 2 FLA@NJD 55.5/45.5 -125/+125 FLA -120/NJD +147
PIT@COL 44.4/55.6 +125/-125 PIT +147/COL -120
CBJ@BOS 36.7/63.3 +172/-172 CBJ +206/BOS -165
LAK@WPG 49.1/50.9 +104/-104 LAK +115/WPG +107
MTL@TB 39/61 +156/-156 MTL +186/TB -150
MIN@CAR 49.7/50.3 +101/-101 MIN +112/CAR +109
TOR@PHI 55.7/44.3 -126/+126 TOR -121/PHI +148
STL@CGY 38.4/61.6 +161/-161 STL +191/CGY -154
DAL@SJS 53.5/46.5 -115/+115 DAL -110/SJS +135
April 3 DET@OTT 43.7/56.3 +129/-129 DET +152/OTT -124
FLA@BUF 53.7/46.3 -116/+116 FLA -111/BUF +136
NYI@NJD 45/55 +122/-122 NYI +144/NJD -117
ARI@CHI 46.7/53.3 +114/-114 ARI +134/CHI -110
PHI@NYR 35.5/64.7 +183/-183 PHI +219/NYR -175
MIN@WSH 48.4/51.6 +106/-106 MIN +118/WSH +104
VGK@VAN 48.4/51.6 +106/-106 VGK +118/VAN +104
EDM@ANA 57.2/42.8 -134/+134 EDM -128/ANA +158
DAL@SEA 48.4/51.6 +107/-107 DAL +118/SEA +104
April 4 BOS@CBJ 55.9/44.1 -127/+127 BOS -122/CBJ +149
TOR@TBL 47.5/52.5 +111/-111 TOR +130/TBL -106
ARI@STL 35.2/64.8 +184/-184 ARI +221/STL -177
CGY@LAK 47.8/52.2 +109/-109 CGY +121/LAK +101

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by the market. From there, compile a list of wagers. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

3 stretch-drive storylines, Kreider’s crazy year, and Tampa’s School Bus Line

Goaltending can be a touchy subject for half of the NHL's franchises. It's such a vital yet volatile position that it can sometimes feel like high praise when a netminder earns the tepid "reliable starter" label.

The issue has ballooned in 2021-22 as the league-wide goal-scoring rate has reached a 25-year high, and elite goalies have become exceedingly rare.

Goaltending stability is a storyline to track over the regular season's final month - specifically with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers, and St. Louis Blues. Through Thursday's games, all three squads are in a playoff spot despite employing goalies who don't inspire much confidence.

Michael Martin / Getty Images

In Toronto, the problem begins with availability. Starter Jack Campbell is still working his way back from a rib injury, and backup Petr Mrazek is out at least six weeks with a groin injury. When healthy, Campbell's play has ranged from excellent to terrible in a career-high 39 starts. Mrazek has posted subpar numbers in 18 starts. Plan C is Erik Kallgren, a virtual unknown with seven games of NHL experience. So, the pressure's on Campbell to rebound.

In Edmonton, the Oilers have been playing with fire all season. Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen rank 42nd and 50th in save percentage among the 63 goalies who've logged 500 minutes. Both also place poorly in goals saved above average and goals saved above expected, underlining how the Oilers' team defense, while not world-beating, isn't the core concern. Could Connor McDavid and the skaters conceivably minimize the goaltending woes by winning games 6-5, 5-4, and 4-3? Sure, but that's a risky gamble.

In St. Louis, Jordan Binnington, the starter to begin 2021-22, has been up and down all campaign, never really settling into a groove. Meanwhile, his partner, Ville Husso, has crashed back to earth after an exceptional first half. The traditionally physical Blues now play an up-tempo brand of hockey, and they'll be in trouble come playoff time without solid goaltending.

Andy Devlin / Getty Images

Other major storylines to keep an eye on:

Finalizing MVP cases: Usually, the hockey world has homed in on the three likely finalists for the Hart Trophy by this point in the season. However, the field is as crowded as it is diverse this campaign, with 100-point man McDavid and 50-goal guy Auston Matthews leading the charge at forward. Roman Josi is also making a compelling Hart case on the back end, while Igor Shesterkin has staked his claim between the pipes. And it wouldn't be shocking if Leon Draisaitl, Jonathan Huberdeau, or Johnny Gaudreau squeezed into the conversation before games wrap on April 29.

Jockeying for position: The eight teams in a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference are safe. Nobody's catching them. Matchups still need to be determined, though, and the Atlantic Division is especially fluid. Out West, it's a three-horse race for the final wild-card spot. Dallas (79 points in 66 games) owns it right now, but Vegas (78 in 69) and Winnipeg (76 in 69) are on its heels. The heat is on the Golden Knights, whose season has featured countless injuries, the Jack Eichel acquisition, and that bungled deadline deal.

Kreider's crazy season

Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

Matthews is on pace for 62 goals in 77 games. Draisaitl's on pace for 59 in 82. Chris Kreider, 56 in 82. Alex Ovechkin, 51 in 80. And Kyle Connor, 49 in 80.

The last time more than three players hit the 50-goal mark was in 2005-06. Connor being placed in COVID-19 protocol earlier this week greatly diminishes his chances, but the other four should reach the milestone.

Kreider, who has 46 goals in 68 contests, is the group's outlier when it comes to his resume.

According to the league's stats and information department, the speedy, net-crashing New York Rangers winger could become only the seventh player in history to record their first 50-goal season at age 30 or older (Kreider turns 31 on April 30). Incredibly, the Massachusetts native has never even registered a 30-goal season, falling short by two goals in 2016-17 and 2018-19.

Another interesting nugget: Kreider has scored 16 of his 46 goals off tipped shots. Heading into the season, nobody recorded more than 12 since the NHL started tracking shot types in 2009-10. (Note: a "tip" is a shot attempt off an offensive player's stick, while a "deflection" is an attempt off an extension of the player, such as a piece of equipment or body part.)

Kreider debuted in 2012-13. He's racked up 64 career goals via tip to lead all players in that span. Here are the rest of the top-five tippers:

Another layer to Kreider's story: He's scored 24 of his 46 goals on the power play. He leads the league in that category, too, and already surpassed Brayden Point's 20 in 2018-19, the last time the NHL played an 82-game season.

Rangers head coach Gerard Gallant's recent remarks on Kreider's 45th goal provided a concise breakdown of what he brings to the table offensively.

"Big power-play goal," Gallant told reporters Tuesday. "That's what Kreids does - shot from the point, (puck) missed the net, and he's right there for the garbage. He scores a lot of goals in the blue paint, and he's doing a great job."

Tampa Bay's School Bus Line

Mike Carlson / Getty Images

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and finally at full health, Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper has an embarrassment of riches up front.

Seriously, these are the four forward lines Cooper rolled out Tuesday:

  • Steven Stamkos - Brayden Point - Nikita Kucherov
  • Ondrej Palat - Anthony Cirelli - Alex Killorn
  • Brandon Hagel - Ross Colton - Nick Paul
  • Pat Maroon - Pierre-Edouard Bellemare - Corey Perry

That trio of Bellemare between Maroon and Perry has stayed together through injuries and roster moves. For good reason, too - the School Bus Line, as Maroon labeled it earlier this season, has been wildly impactful.

The nickname is a nod to how each member of the line takes their turn driving the metaphorical bus through lumbering yet effective two-way play. A battled-tested, north-south group, the School Bus Line has managed to outscore opponents 22-8 in 475 minutes together. In terms of goals-for percentage, they rank sixth in the NHL among the 56 lines to log 200 minutes. Not bad.

That impressive GF% is a little misleading because the School Bus Line tends to face other teams' bottom-six players. Still, owning roughly 75% of the goal share over such a large sample is quite the feat for three 30-somethings playing in a young man's league. (Bellemare's 37; Perry's 36; Maroon's 33.)

From afar, it's hard not to appreciate the mix of player types and personalities. Maroon, the American, is the resident chirper and three-time Stanley Cup winner. Perry, the Canadian, is the ultra-competitive scorer and former league MVP. Bellemare, from France, is the smart and defensively minded center.

All aboard the bus!

Parting thoughts

Alex Nedeljkovic: It's been a trying first season in Detroit for the young goalie. Nedeljkovic's save percentage sits at .900 after 50 appearances, and he allowed five or more goals in 10 of those games. As the image below shows, he recently wrote the phrases "JUST DO IT" and "HAVE FUN" on his blocker. I viewed it as a reminder that NHLers are human beings, and sometimes it's a challenge to get out of your own head and away from negative thought patterns.

Rick Jeanneret: The legendary Buffalo Sabres broadcaster will call his final game on April 29, and the club is holding a banner-raising ceremony Friday at KeyBank Center. It'll be a rare sellout, which says a lot about the state of the Sabres and also the fan base's love for "RJ," the NHL's longest-tenured announcer. Here are Jeanneret's best calls from 50 years (!) behind the mic:

Nathan MacKinnon: For a team that has underachieved in the playoffs, the last thing the Colorado Avalanche needed was another injury to a star player. MacKinnon looked as if he sustained a serious injury last weekend after fighting Minnesota Wild defenseman Matt Dumba. MacKinnon missed Tuesday's game but returned Thursday, skating for 22:38 in a 4-2 win. Phew, close call for the Avs, especially with the West wide-open this season.

Takes, Thoughts, and Trends is theScore's biweekly hockey grab bag.

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.