If there's one axiom we've tried to push in this space, it's "You just never know."

You'd be hard-pressed to find a more impressive back-to-back result than what the Detroit Red Wings pulled off Tuesday and Wednesday. It was also the most unlikely.

The Wings (+160) were gracious hosts when, after six straight losses, they spotted the Bruins a pair of first-period goals at Little Caesars Arena.

But to say the Red Wings flipped a switch and ran the Bruins off the ice would be disingenuous. Although Detroit scored the next four goals on the way to a 5-3 skid-snapping victory, the star of the game was goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic, who made 47 saves.

It's easy to write that off as a hot goaltender stealing a win, and with the Red Wings playing in Winnipeg the next night, the schedule spot seemed problematic. That was reflected in their +230 moneyline price, which was only a 6% value on our +175 fair-price projection.

Seven points out of a playoff spot with 12 games to go, the Jets should be desperate. Perhaps that narrative caused the small overcorrection in valuation.

The Jets were probably the better team in terms of creating scoring chances, but it was Thomas Greiss' turn to backstop the Red Wings to victory. While the score was 3-1, the expected goals suggested a slight edge to the Jets. At the big moneyline payout, win or lose, Detroit was a good bet. The hard part was ignoring the factors that would convince you not to make it.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Thursday, April 8

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if our team ratings don't account for something - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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