"Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in," Michael Corleone said in "The Godfather Part III."
The famous quote reflects how value-based NHL bettors must feel about a handful of teams that seem ready to lose interest but score a surprising win every once in a while as they play out the string.
After a rough stretch for underdogs last week, this past weekend saw them bark back. Few would have much interest in backing the Canadiens (+260) at the Lightning on Saturday night or the Coyotes (+170), Flyers (+240), and Kraken (+135) on Sunday.
It just goes to show that you can't give up on a cohort of teams that had a rough March. The Coyotes had a six-game losing streak last month but still managed profitability, keeping this group near even on your betting ledger.
| TEAM | ML RECORD (March) | +/- UNITS |
|---|---|---|
| Coyotes | 7-7 | +3.05 |
| Kraken | 5-7 | -0.70 |
| Flyers | 5-10 | -2.6 |
| Canadiens | 5-10 | +0.03 |
Betting on the four worst teams in the league would have resulted in a 22-34 record on the moneyline but just a marginal loss. Four days into April, this collective is 4-4 with a net profit of 4.25 units to the positive. Whether you're actually on the team or merely betting on the team, there's nothing fun about losing. But like a high-end Zamboni, the moneyline odds are there to smooth out the playing surface.
The recipe
Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.
How to use the guide
What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.
Wednesday, April 6
| GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| TBL@WSH | 52.9/47.1 | -112/+112 | TBL -108/WSH +132 |
| DET@WPG | 41.2/58.8 | +143/-143 | DET +169/WPG -137 |
| SEA@STL | 43/57 | +133/-133 | SEA +156/STL -127 |
| CGY@ANA | 55.8/44.2 | -126/+126 | CGY -121/ANA +149 |
| VAN@VGK | 40.3/59.7 | +148/-148 | VAN +175/VGK -142 |
Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something is unaccounted for in our team ratings - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.
After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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