Goaltending can be a touchy subject for half of the NHL's franchises. It's such a vital yet volatile position that it can sometimes feel like high praise when a netminder earns the tepid "reliable starter" label.
The issue has ballooned in 2021-22 as the league-wide goal-scoring rate has reached a 25-year high, and elite goalies have become exceedingly rare.
Goaltending stability is a storyline to track over the regular season's final month - specifically with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers, and St. Louis Blues. Through Thursday's games, all three squads are in a playoff spot despite employing goalies who don't inspire much confidence.
In Toronto, the problem begins with availability. Starter Jack Campbell is still working his way back from a rib injury, and backup Petr Mrazek is out at least six weeks with a groin injury. When healthy, Campbell's play has ranged from excellent to terrible in a career-high 39 starts. Mrazek has posted subpar numbers in 18 starts. Plan C is Erik Kallgren, a virtual unknown with seven games of NHL experience. So, the pressure's on Campbell to rebound.
In Edmonton, the Oilers have been playing with fire all season. Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen rank 42nd and 50th in save percentage among the 63 goalies who've logged 500 minutes. Both also place poorly in goals saved above average and goals saved above expected, underlining how the Oilers' team defense, while not world-beating, isn't the core concern. Could Connor McDavid and the skaters conceivably minimize the goaltending woes by winning games 6-5, 5-4, and 4-3? Sure, but that's a risky gamble.
In St. Louis, Jordan Binnington, the starter to begin 2021-22, has been up and down all campaign, never really settling into a groove. Meanwhile, his partner, Ville Husso, has crashed back to earth after an exceptional first half. The traditionally physical Blues now play an up-tempo brand of hockey, and they'll be in trouble come playoff time without solid goaltending.
Other major storylines to keep an eye on:
Finalizing MVP cases: Usually, the hockey world has homed in on the three likely finalists for the Hart Trophy by this point in the season. However, the field is as crowded as it is diverse this campaign, with 100-point man McDavid and 50-goal guy Auston Matthews leading the charge at forward. Roman Josi is also making a compelling Hart case on the back end, while Igor Shesterkin has staked his claim between the pipes. And it wouldn't be shocking if Leon Draisaitl, Jonathan Huberdeau, or Johnny Gaudreau squeezed into the conversation before games wrap on April 29.
Jockeying for position: The eight teams in a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference are safe. Nobody's catching them. Matchups still need to be determined, though, and the Atlantic Division is especially fluid. Out West, it's a three-horse race for the final wild-card spot. Dallas (79 points in 66 games) owns it right now, but Vegas (78 in 69) and Winnipeg (76 in 69) are on its heels. The heat is on the Golden Knights, whose season has featured countless injuries, the Jack Eichel acquisition, and that bungled deadline deal.
Kreider's crazy season
Matthews is on pace for 62 goals in 77 games. Draisaitl's on pace for 59 in 82. Chris Kreider, 56 in 82. Alex Ovechkin, 51 in 80. And Kyle Connor, 49 in 80.
The last time more than three players hit the 50-goal mark was in 2005-06. Connor being placed in COVID-19 protocol earlier this week greatly diminishes his chances, but the other four should reach the milestone.
Kreider, who has 46 goals in 68 contests, is the group's outlier when it comes to his resume.
According to the league's stats and information department, the speedy, net-crashing New York Rangers winger could become only the seventh player in history to record their first 50-goal season at age 30 or older (Kreider turns 31 on April 30). Incredibly, the Massachusetts native has never even registered a 30-goal season, falling short by two goals in 2016-17 and 2018-19.
Another interesting nugget: Kreider has scored 16 of his 46 goals off tipped shots. Heading into the season, nobody recorded more than 12 since the NHL started tracking shot types in 2009-10. (Note: a "tip" is a shot attempt off an offensive player's stick, while a "deflection" is an attempt off an extension of the player, such as a piece of equipment or body part.)
Kreider debuted in 2012-13. He's racked up 64 career goals via tip to lead all players in that span. Here are the rest of the top-five tippers:
Another layer to Kreider's story: He's scored 24 of his 46 goals on the power play. He leads the league in that category, too, and already surpassed Brayden Point's 20 in 2018-19, the last time the NHL played an 82-game season.
Rangers head coach Gerard Gallant's recent remarks on Kreider's 45th goal provided a concise breakdown of what he brings to the table offensively.
"Big power-play goal," Gallant told reporters Tuesday. "That's what Kreids does - shot from the point, (puck) missed the net, and he's right there for the garbage. He scores a lot of goals in the blue paint, and he's doing a great job."
Tampa Bay's School Bus Line
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and finally at full health, Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper has an embarrassment of riches up front.
Seriously, these are the four forward lines Cooper rolled out Tuesday:
- Steven Stamkos - Brayden Point - Nikita Kucherov
- Ondrej Palat - Anthony Cirelli - Alex Killorn
- Brandon Hagel - Ross Colton - Nick Paul
- Pat Maroon - Pierre-Edouard Bellemare - Corey Perry
That trio of Bellemare between Maroon and Perry has stayed together through injuries and roster moves. For good reason, too - the School Bus Line, as Maroon labeled it earlier this season, has been wildly impactful.
The nickname is a nod to how each member of the line takes their turn driving the metaphorical bus through lumbering yet effective two-way play. A battled-tested, north-south group, the School Bus Line has managed to outscore opponents 22-8 in 475 minutes together. In terms of goals-for percentage, they rank sixth in the NHL among the 56 lines to log 200 minutes. Not bad.
That impressive GF% is a little misleading because the School Bus Line tends to face other teams' bottom-six players. Still, owning roughly 75% of the goal share over such a large sample is quite the feat for three 30-somethings playing in a young man's league. (Bellemare's 37; Perry's 36; Maroon's 33.)
From afar, it's hard not to appreciate the mix of player types and personalities. Maroon, the American, is the resident chirper and three-time Stanley Cup winner. Perry, the Canadian, is the ultra-competitive scorer and former league MVP. Bellemare, from France, is the smart and defensively minded center.
All aboard the bus!
Parting thoughts
Alex Nedeljkovic: It's been a trying first season in Detroit for the young goalie. Nedeljkovic's save percentage sits at .900 after 50 appearances, and he allowed five or more goals in 10 of those games. As the image below shows, he recently wrote the phrases "JUST DO IT" and "HAVE FUN" on his blocker. I viewed it as a reminder that NHLers are human beings, and sometimes it's a challenge to get out of your own head and away from negative thought patterns.
Rick Jeanneret: The legendary Buffalo Sabres broadcaster will call his final game on April 29, and the club is holding a banner-raising ceremony Friday at KeyBank Center. It'll be a rare sellout, which says a lot about the state of the Sabres and also the fan base's love for "RJ," the NHL's longest-tenured announcer. Here are Jeanneret's best calls from 50 years (!) behind the mic:
Nathan MacKinnon: For a team that has underachieved in the playoffs, the last thing the Colorado Avalanche needed was another injury to a star player. MacKinnon looked as if he sustained a serious injury last weekend after fighting Minnesota Wild defenseman Matt Dumba. MacKinnon missed Tuesday's game but returned Thursday, skating for 22:38 in a 4-2 win. Phew, close call for the Avs, especially with the West wide-open this season.
Takes, Thoughts, and Trends is theScore's biweekly hockey grab bag.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).
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