Kucherov’s heating up, top Crosby anecdotes, and the West playoff race

Nikita Kucherov is once again doing Kucherovian things - a development that should petrify opponents of the healthy and engaged Tampa Bay Lightning.

While the Lightning were embarrassed Thursday night in a 5-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Kucherov put on an absolute clinic two days earlier during a 5-2 comeback win over the Ottawa Senators. Both scoring plays he initiated - the Lightning's opening goal and the eventual game-winner - were highlight-reel worthy and a reminder of how extraordinarily dangerous Kucherov can be with the puck.

On the first, the highly entertaining two-time Stanley Cup champion forced a turnover on the half-wall, corralled a pass, and then, identifying free ice, made a beeline to the crease area where he backhanded the puck top corner.

A period later, the right-winger flashed his signature sly playmaking ability by executing a no-look pass to Steven Stamkos. Again using his backhand, Kucherov shoveled the puck from the right corner to the heart of the left circle where Stamkos was waiting to hammer in a one-timer and break a 2-2 tie.

Sports fans who don't know much about Kucherov might opine that the 2019-20 Hart Trophy winner guessed and got lucky on the pass to Stamkos. But he didn't. Part of what makes Kucherov special is his quickness of mind. He makes hard things look easy - to the point of looking fluky.

"We've seen him do it a few times in practice lately," Brayden Point, Kucherov's center, told reporters when asked about the pass to Stamkos. "That's just unreal skill (to) pick up the puck off the boards like that and find a guy right away. He's just so talented, one of the most talented guys in the league. His skill is off the charts, and his vision is off the charts."

The 28-year-old has only appeared in 18 games this season, recording 10 goals and 16 assists to average 1.44 points per contest. In the third game of the season, he sustained an unspecified lower-body injury, which required surgery and kept him out of the lineup for three months. Then, in late January, COVID-19 protocol sidelined Kucherov for an additional three games.

Similar to when he burst onto the scene in the first round of last year's playoffs after missing the entire regular season, Kucherov has hit the ground running. Only Mitch Marner, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Auston Matthews have been more productive on a per-game basis since Jan. 6, and Tampa has been just as effective as its top winger, owning a 13-4-1 record in that span.

If Kucherov remains healthy, he can play a maximum of 47 games. He won't take home an individual award. A third Cup ring, though? Maybe.

Revisiting young Crosby

Kevin Sousa / Getty Images

Sidney Crosby is about as private as an all-time pro athlete can be. Relative to his talent and impact on the sport, we don't really know a ton about the guy personally.

The vault opened up ever so slightly this week with Audible's release of an eight-part audio documentary called "Sidney Crosby: The Rookie Year." As actor and narrator Joe Manganiello put it in an interview with theScore, the documentary is an "insider's view and an insider's experience of one of the great athletes of our time."

Manganiello, a Pittsburgh native and huge Penguins fan, said he gained a greater appreciation for Crosby's mental makeup and his journey from Nova Scotian prodigy to 102-point NHL rookie through the narration process.

"He was a child star, and most child stars don't handle that pressure well in my industry, in the entertainment industry," Manganiello said. "It's a little different with athletes, but still, there are no guarantees in life, and especially in sports. So, to watch him have the kind of success he's had but also be the person that he is, and kind of weather the storm (is impressive)."

Rich Fury / Getty Images

I've listened to the entire show. It's quite good, although not deeply enlightening.

Here are two anecdotes I found particularly amusing:

Grandma pays up: You probably know about the Crosby family's famous beat-up dryer. You probably know about the Montreal Canadiens drafting his dad Troy. You might even know his cousin Forbes MacPherson played in the AHL.

But it's unlikely you know Crosby's grandma once promised him $1 for every goal he could score in the upcoming minor-hockey season. And, when Crosby racked up 159 goals, grandma yelped with pride.

"I felt so bad for her," Crosby says with a slight laugh in the documentary.

"She had no idea," he adds. "She thought, 'I don't know, he's maybe going to get 20 goals this year. It'll be a nice little gift for him at the end of the year.'"

Dave Sandford / Getty Images

Mario's dog duty: For a brief period during his rookie year, Crosby played on a line alongside Mario Lemieux, who also doubled as co-owner of the Penguins franchise.

The generational stars were housemates, too, after Lemieux invited then 18-year-old Crosby to move into the family home. Naturally, Crosby's teammates poked fun at the odd arrangement. "They're going to give it to you," Crosby says. "But the next question is going to be, 'How is it? What's it like? Can I come over?'"

At some point, Crosby adopted a puppy, and one night after a game - with Lemieux's wife and kids already sleeping - he walked into the house and immediately smelled feces. Uh oh.

"I came around the corner, and there's Mario," Crosby says of the stoic legend, with the sleeves of his white dress shirt rolled up and necktie undone.

"He's there cleaning up this mess," Crosby adds, "and I'm thinking to myself, 'This cannot be happening …'"

West Conference race

Heading into Friday's slate of matchups, there are four Western Conference teams comfortably in a postseason spot based on points percentage.

The Colorado Avalanche (.764), St. Louis Blues (.660), and Minnesota Wild (.644) are all well on their way to securing playoff berths in the Central Division. Meanwhile, it'll take a wild turn of events over the final third of the regular season for the Calgary Flames (.670) to lose their comfy spot in the Pacific.

That leaves the Los Angeles Kings (.591), Edmonton Oilers (.582), and Vegas Golden Knights (.582) to jockey for the other guaranteed division spots. The Pacific team that falls off the pace will then vie with the Dallas Stars (.594), Nashville Predators (.593), and Anaheim Ducks (.545) for the two wild cards.

John Russell / Getty Images

So which of these six teams chasing a playoff spot is facing the stiffest test? It's the 30-20-4 Predators, current occupants of the first wild card.

Nashville's not only in the middle of a rough patch, having gone 3-6-1 in its last 10 games, but the club also ties the Kings and Stars for most back-to-back sets down the stretch with five. (The Golden Knights, Ducks, and Oilers have four, three, and two, respectively.) Two of the Preds' back-to-backs are in late April, giving them five games in their campaign's final seven days.

Nashville is also facing the highest quality of competition. The team's scheduled to meet a top-10 side in the NHL (based on current points percentage) in a whopping 13 of its final 28 games. At the other end of the spectrum, Vegas will meet just five top-10 teams in their final 28 games while L.A. has only six in 27.

The Predators play 16 of their final 28 contests on home ice. Perhaps that can be their saving grace - though they're a pedestrian 15-10-0 at Bridgestone Arena.

The kicker: Nashville has an exceedingly difficult stretch to close out the season. Six of the squad's final seven games are against the Flames (twice), Blues, Wild, Avalanche, and Lightning - all top-10 clubs.

Even though HockeyViz shows they have a 78.4% probability of making the playoffs, it's still going to be an uphill battle for the Preds.

Parting thoughts

Jack Johnson: On Tuesday, the 35-year-old defenseman became the 363rd player to appear in 1,000 NHL games. Johnson, a plodding, mistake-prone blue-liner with iffy underlying numbers, has been a punching bag for multiple fan bases over his career. Yet it's not hard to root for a guy who's lasted this long, who is by all accounts loved by his teammates, and who has endured economic hardships thanks to his own greedy parents. Johnson, now with the juggernaut Avalanche, deserves that commemorative silver stick just as much as the 362 others who have reached 1,000. Enjoy the spotlight, Jack.

Kyle Davidson: The Chicago Blackhawks officially named Davidson general manager earlier this week. The young executive immediately used the word "rebuild," which smartly removed any guesswork from the public discourse. Overall, his top priority is figuring out if Patrick Kane and/or Jonathan Toews should be part of the team's long-term future. However, those conversations can wait until the offseason. The more pressing situation is Marc-Andre Fleury. The goalie will be an unrestricted free agent this summer and was promised by the previous regime that he would be involved in any trade-related discussions. So Davidson must slide on his salesman hat. Chicago's in desperate need of draft picks and prospects, and a few playoff-bound teams could use an upgrade in goal. Convincing Fleury to move on would be a huge first win for Davidson.

Isabelle Khurshudyan: I wanted to echo some of my colleagues by praising Khurshudyan, the terrific Washington Post foreign correspondent who previously covered the Washington Capitals. She's in Ukraine reporting on something far more important than sports. Here's to Khurshudyan, fellow journalists, aid workers, and, of course, innocent Ukrainians staying safe.

Takes, Thoughts, and Trends is theScore's biweekly hockey grab bag.

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekend preview: 3 sides worth backing

If you like sitting around and watching hockey all day, this weekend is what dreams are made of. We have a whopping 25 games to look forward to, with tonight's seven-game slate being the smallest.

There is plenty of value on the board, which we're going to zero in on with our weekend best bets. Let's dive right in.

Wild (-190) @ Sabres (+155)
March 4, 7 p.m. EST

The Wild won for us inside 60 minutes Thursday night in Philadelphia. We're going right back to the well and banking on them doing the same Friday in Buffalo.

While the Sabres are coming off an impressive dismantling of the Maple Leafs, they still aren't playing great hockey right now. They have won just three of their last 10 games and controlled only 46% of the expected goals at five-on-five in that time. They rank 26th in said category, just below the Blue Jackets.

For perspective, the Wild have controlled better than 52% of the expected goals over the same period. That's good for 13th, just ahead of the Golden Knights.

With Cam Talbot getting the surprise start on Thursday night, that means Kaapo Kahkonen will get the nod in Buffalo. He has saved 3.6 goals more than expected this season, while Talbot has conceded 3.8 more than expected. That's more than a seven-goal swing.

I think Kahkonen will be able to limit the damage Buffalo's offense can do. On the flip side, the Wild offense should have a strong night against a Sabres team that ranks 29th in expected goals against per 60 over the last 10.

Bet: Wild in regulation (-125)

Red Wings (+225) @ Lightning (-275)
March 4, 7 p.m. EST

The Red Wings aren't a great hockey team. They're quite top-heavy, they're routinely out-chanced at five-on-five, and their special teams are anything but special.

Even so, I see value in Detroit in this game. They're going up against a Lightning team in the latter half of a back-to-back. That's significant and not because of fatigue.

The Red Wings will have the luxury of facing Brian Elliott instead of Andrei Vasilevskiy, which is one of the biggest gaps you'll see in quality between a starter and backup.

The 36-year-old netminder owns a .902 save percentage. That's below league average, and yet, if it holds, it'd be his best since 2018-19. He's well past his prime and tends to concede a soft goal or two that allows opposing teams to hang around in games.

I don't have confidence in the Red Wings to win this contest. However, I do believe they can score enough on Elliott to hang around and keep things close.

Bet: Red Wings +1.5 (+105)

Senators (-117) @ Coyotes (-105)
March 5, 4 p.m. EST

The Coyotes almost shockingly picked up a win over the Avalanche on Thursday night, but I don't expect them to get back in the win column on Saturday.

I believe the Senators are the better team in every sense of the word. Their share of shots, goals, chances, high-danger chances, and expected goals are all several percentage points higher than the Coyotes.

They're starting to get healthier, too, as top-line center Josh Norris recently returned to the lineup.

Could Arizona have another goaltending performance that helps them steal two points? Sure. But even though Karel Vejmelka has shown the ability to win games by himself this season, he's been wildly inconsistent, and his overall body of work isn't all that impressive.

I don't expect lightning to strike twice and am comfortable backing the Senators as slight favorites.

Bet: Senators (-117)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for March 5-7

Value is created in sports betting when other bettors want nothing to do with betting on, or betting against, a team. Prior to the NHL All-Star break, that situation occurred regularly as clubs played with compromised lineups, and oddsmakers couldn't price the favorite low enough.

My, how the tables have turned. In the last four days alone, the positive expected value from the games listed in this space Monday has rolled to an 8-3 record. The real story is in the net gains from swallowing hard and betting on the teams no one else wants.

GAME PRICE TO BET MONEYLINE RESULT
VAN@NJD NJD -130 NJD -115 7-2 Devils (+1)
CAR@DET DET +128 DET +190 5-4 Red Wings (+1.9)
MTL@WPG MTL +180 MTL +180 8-4 Jets (-1)
NYI@COL NYI +162 NYI +235 5-3 Avalanche (-1)
STL@NYR NYR -110 NYR -110 5-3 Rangers (+1)
BUF@TOR BUF +280 BUF +350 5-1 Sabres (+3.5)
NSH@SEA SEA +111 SEA +150 4-3 Kraken (+1.5)
MIN@PHI PHI +144 PHI +165 5-4 Wild (-1)
CAR@WSH WSH -104 WSH +115 4-0 Capitals (+1.15)
MTL@CGY MTL +215 MTL +330 5-4 Canadiens (+3.3)
COL@ARI ARI +214 ARI +320 2-1 Coyotes (+3.2)

Those eight wins provided 16.55 units to the positive. After the three losses get deducted from the ledger, a four-day boon of +13.55 may have hit your account.

Is there luck involved with an 8-3 record? Like most NHL game results, yes. The plays above went 2-0 in overtime, which resulted in a swing of 7.2 units to the positive. However, two of the three losses saw our underdog hold the lead going into the second intermission, so they were certainly live to win the game at a valuable price.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

With good results after the All-Star break for our underdogs - gaining nearly 20 units despite a 42-54 record - we'll maintain our weight distribution for our ratings using 70% of this season's metrics with 30% weighted for preseason priors.

With our ratings weighted to this season's on-ice product, we can put more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened in a still relatively small sample size that contains some tainted results.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected will be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

DATE GAME TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
March 4 PIT@CAR +107/-107 PIT +118/CAR +103
NJD@NYR +123/-123 NJD +144/NYR -118
DET@TBL +154/-154 DET +183/TBL -148
LAK@CBJ -110/+110 LAK +101/CBJ +121
MIN@BUF +130/-130 MIN +154/BUF -125
DAL@WPG +104/-104 DAL +115/WPG +106
VGK@ANA -108/+108 VGK +102/ANA +119
March 5 STL@NYI +115/-115 STL +135/NYI -110
CHI@PHI +106/-106 CHI +118/PHI +104
OTT@ARI +121/-121 OTT +143/ARI -116
DET@FLA +264/-264 DET +326/FLA -251
SEA@WSH +126/-126 SEA +148/WSH -121
BOS@CBJ -152/+152 BOS -146/CBJ +180
VAN@TOR +141/-141 VAN +167/TOR -135
MTL@EDM +204/-204 MTL +246/EDM -195
NSH@SJS +102/-102 NSH +112/SJS +109
CGY@COL  +123/-123 CGY +145/COL -118
March 6 STL@NJD +125/-125 STL +147/NJD -120
LAK@BUF -116/+116 LAK -112/BUF +137
DAL@MIN +115/-115 DAL +135/MIN -110
SEA@CAR +159/-159 SEA +189/CAR -153
TBL@CHI -157/+157 TBL -150/CHI +186
NYR@WPG +100/+100 NYR +110/WPG +110
SJS@ANA +131/-131 SJS +154/ANA -125
OTT@VGK +287/-287 OTT +358/VGK -272

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Hart Trophy Power Rankings: Matthews makes his move

One thing's for certain in the 2021-22 NHL MVP race: the winner won't be unanimous this time around. We're in the midst of one of the most competitive Hart Trophy races in years, and while three candidates have been at the forefront for most of the campaign, several others have built convincing cases of their own.

Calgary Flames star Johnny Gaudreau and Minnesota Wild winger Kirill Kaprizov are on the fringes of the discussion, but those who've led the charge for much of 2021-22 continue to separate themselves from the pack.

Here are our top five Hart contenders as we plunge further into the season's second half:

5. Igor Shesterkin

Joe Sargent / National Hockey League / Getty
GP Record SV% GSAx GSAA
35 26-6-3 .940 29.86 32.63

No goaltender has won this award since Carey Price in 2014-15, but Shesterkin has carried the contending New York Rangers and deserves to be in the conversation.

Without looking at Shesterkin's numbers, one would assume the Rangers have no business being in a playoff spot. New York ranks in the bottom half of the NHL in goals and shots per game, and is also allowing more shots per contest than over half of the league's squads. The Rangers are one of the NHL's best clubs on special teams, but their expected goals for and scoring chances for percentage at five-on-five both sit among the league's worst.

Despite New York's weaknesses, the 26-year-old leads all qualified goalies in save percentage (both in all situations and at five-on-five), and he ranks among the NHL leaders in wins despite playing fewer games than those above him. Shesterkin also leads the league in goals saved above expected at five-on-five and in all situations. He sits atop the NHL by a wide margin in goals saved above average in all situations and ranks second in GSAA at five-on-five.

All of this illustrates how valuable Shesterkin has been. Even though he likely won't be able to convince voters to make him a finalist, his play deserves recognition beyond just the Vezina Trophy.

4. Jonathan Huberdeau

Eliot J. Schechter / National Hockey League / Getty
GP G A ATOI xGF%
54 18 57 19:20 54.47

Huberdeau's candidacy has taken a slight hit lately, but by little fault of his own. The Florida Panthers winger leads the NHL in assists this season while notching 22 more helpers and 25 more points than his next-closest teammate. Huberdeau has just one goal since our last edition of these rankings on Feb. 4, but he's added 10 assists across the seven-game span.

The Panthers have plenty of firepower, including two-way wizard Aleksander Barkov. Florida's depth hurts Huberdeau's MVP case, but the 28-year-old carried the club when Barkov was out earlier in the campaign, further demonstrating his importance to this ultra-competitive squad.

Huberdeau likely won't garner as much Hart buzz as those above him on this list due to the trio of players providing superior value.

3. Alex Ovechkin

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty
GP G A ATOI xGF%
54 33 32 21:34 50.63

Ovechkin's production has cooled since he led this race a month ago, but the Washington Capitals captain's season remains remarkable considering he's in his 17th campaign and 36 years old.

The three-time MVP is still in the "Rocket" Richard Trophy hunt, and he's been more versatile than usual in 2021-22. Ovechkin's assists per game rate is his highest since 2010-11 and he ranks third in the NHL in even-strength goals, so he's doing far more than burying one-timers from his office on the power play.

Ovi has amassed 16 more goals and 14 more points than his next-closest teammate, displaying significant value relative to his club. Washington sits fourth in the Metropolitan, but Ovechkin's squad would be in danger of missing the playoffs without his efforts.

His dip in production is also partly due to the fact he's only played eight games over the last month, whereas both of the players ahead of him here have suited up for 13 and 12, respectively. Ovechkin tallied four goals and three assists over that span, which is solid but unspectacular, especially when compared to the top two Hart candidates.

2. Connor McDavid

Gregg Forwerck / National Hockey League / Getty
GP G A ATOI xGF%
54 29 50 22:26 58.89

No one will argue that McDavid is the most gifted player in the NHL, but that's not what this award recognizes. The Edmonton Oilers captain leads the league in points and ranks second in assists, but this isn't the Richard or Art Ross Trophy.

McDavid has excellent underlying numbers, which is partly why he's on the doorstep of the top spot. The 25-year-old's SCF% at five-on-five (55.2) is nearly as good as his xGF%, and he's fourth in the league in goals above replacement.

However, McDavid's bid to repeat as MVP is hurt by Leon Draisaitl's offensive exploits, and unlike last season, the reigning Hart winner isn't piling up points at the historic clip that made him a rare unanimous pick. Draisaitl still has less-than-stellar analytic figures, which show how much of his success is due to McDavid.

McDavid has lit it up lately with six goals and 13 assists over the 13 games since our last edition, but the player ranking No. 1 here scored two more goals in one fewer contest over that span.

1. Auston Matthews

Mark Blinch / National Hockey League / Getty
GP G A ATOI xGF%
51 37 31 20:25 62.16

Matthews has been one of the NHL's most potent goal-scorers since coming into the league, but the new dimensions he's added to his game have vaulted him atop the MVP race. The Toronto Maple Leafs center has a realistic shot at winning the "Rocket" Richard Trophy for the second straight year. However, he also has the highest assist per game rate of his career; he can set a career high in helpers with just six more before season's end.

Primary points are a key indicator of a skater's worth, and Matthews has more per game than the others on this list. The Maple Leafs superstar has posted 1.078 goals or primary assists per contest, edging out McDavid (1.055) as well as Ovechkin and Huberdeau (0.963 apiece). This shows Matthews has played a larger role in creating offense.

Even more impressively, the 24-year-old is excelling on the defensive end. Matthews ranks among the league leaders in takeaways and sits atop the NHL in goals above replacement, which assesses a player's all-around value. He trails only Patrice Bergeron in xGF% among skaters with at least 600 minutes played at five-on-five, and ranks third in the league in SCF% among the same group in those situations.

To top it all off, he's been on an absolute tear recently, racking up eight goals and nine assists in the 12 games he's played since our last edition. Toronto has a boatload of skill up front just like Florida, but Matthews' universal prowess and explosive output of late have pushed him ahead of the other contenders.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Watch: Cooper ejected after tirade directed at referee

Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper was tossed from Thursday's clash against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Cooper was heated at the share of penalties after a scrum broke out toward the end of the second period.

The Lightning went down two men after the skirmish. Both Corey Perry (double-minor) and Anthony Cirelli were booked for roughing, and the team was given a bench penalty.

Bryan Rust and Mark Friedman were both handed roughing infractions for Pittsburgh.

The Lightning ultimately killed the penalties to kick off the third period.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Capitals active Mantha from LTIR

The Washington Capitals have activated forward Anthony Mantha from long-term injured reserve, the team announced Thursday.

Mantha hasn't played since Nov. 4 after undergoing shoulder surgery. He's a game-time decision for Thursday's contest versus the Carolina Hurricanes.

The 27-year-old collected six points in 10 games before getting hurt. Washington acquired Mantha from the Detroit Red Wings last season.

In corresponding moves, the Capitals placed forward Joe Snively on IR and Carl Hagelin on LTIR.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Thursday best bets: Getting Wild in Philadelphia

Wednesday night wasn't kind to us. The Toronto Maple Leafs only managed to play in the opening frame against the Buffalo Sabres, while the Nashville Predators blew a 2-0 lead against the Seattle Kraken. Not fun!

We'll look to rebound as we comb through our best bets for Thursday evening's slate.

Wild (-200) @ Flyers (+165)

The Minnesota Wild are in quite a funk. They've dropped four consecutive games and have been outscored 19-8 on aggregate. Not good.

I expect the tide to turn for the Wild in this contest. Their inability to create high-danger chances at five-on-five has been one of their biggest issues lately. That shouldn't be a problem against the Philadelphia Flyers. Only three teams have given up high-danger chances at a higher rate than the Flyers this season. With the talent Minnesota possesses, it should create opportunities in bulk against Philadelphia.

The Wild also figure to have an edge in goal with Kaapo Kahkonen back between the pipes. He's appeared in 13 of Minnesota's last 20 games and owns a rock-solid .922 save percentage.

That's well above what Carter Hart has managed (.904 SV%) over the same stretch.

In short, I don't think the Flyers have the star power - or depth - to hang with the Wild at even strength. When you add a potential edge in goal on top of things, it's hard to see Minnesota's losing streak extending to five games.

Bet: Wild in regulation (-125)

Avalanche (-395) @ Coyotes (+310)

The Colorado Avalanche have run a train on the Arizona Coyotes this season. While that wasn't evident on the scoreboard in two of the three meetings, the reality is the Coyotes have shown little to no resistance against the Avalanche.

Colorado has generated 9.84 expected goals and 98 scoring chances against Arizona thus far, while it's given up only 5.67 expected goals and 47 scoring chances.

That means the Avalanche have controlled more than 63% of the expected goal share and upwards of 68% of the scoring chances. Those numbers are downright insane.

With Colorado as close to full strength as it has been in months, there's every reason to expect a huge chance discrepancy again in this game.

That should translate to success on the scoreboard. While Karel Vejmelka put forth some strong showings earlier in the year, his play has fallen off. He's conceded 11 more goals than expected, which ranks second last among all netminders who have appeared in at least 15 games this season. Colorado's lethal attack should be able to put pucks past him early and often.

I like the Avalanche to take care of business in this contest.

Bet: Avalanche -1.5 (-150)

Canucks (+100) @ Islanders (-120)

The New York Islanders haven't enjoyed anywhere close to the level of success we've grown accustomed to under Barry Trotz. Even so, they're still a competent defensive side, especially on home soil.

Over the last 10 home games, the Islanders conceded 47.57 attempts per 60 minutes, 1.94 goals per 60, and 8.23 high-danger chances per 60 at five-on-five. New York also ranks top six in each of those key categories.

Based on the goaltending Ilya Sorokin has given them over the last couple of months, the Islanders really shouldn't allow many goals since they give up so few opportunities.

The Vancouver Canucks should limit the damage the Islanders cause. Thatcher Demko has been one of the NHL's best netminders since Bruce Boudreau took over. Not to mention, the Islanders' offense tends to be very lifeless; they rank 28th in goals per 60 this season.

Even with a low total, I'm inclined to play the under in this game.

Bet: Under 5.5 (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Thursday player props: 3 shooters to target

We have a busy nine-game slate on the docket Thursday night, which means the return of our props article.

Let's look at three player props that stand out the most.

Mikko Rantanen over 3.5 shots (+105)

The Arizona Coyotes have been a doormat franchise for quite some time. Everyone seems to excel against them. But Mikko Rantanen takes it to a whole different level.

Rantanen has played the Coyotes three times this season. His shot totals over those games: six, six, and eight. That's right, Mikko has amassed 20 shots through just three contests.

There's no reason to expect him to slow down in this game based on his current form. Rantanen leads the Colorado Avalanche with a whopping 69 shot attempts over the last 10 contests. He is shooting the puck a ton.

Expect that to continue against a Coyotes team that ranks dead last in shot attempts against per 60 minutes over the previous 10 games.

Jakob Chychrun over 2.5 shots (-118)

Backing Jakob Chychrun on home soil has proven to be a profitable endeavor. He's cooled off a little bit of late, but Chychrun has recorded at least three shots in 65% of his home games this season.

He's averaging 3.2 shots on goal in contests at Gila River Arena and has been more efficient in generating shot attempts.

While the Avalanche are a strong defensive team that limits shots quite well, they give up a lot to opposing defenders. They're one of just nine clubs to concede more than 500 shots to blue-liners this campaign.

Chychrun is a shoot-first defender who likes to get involved in the play, and he's more effective on home soil. I'm happy to back him at this price.

Elias Lindholm over 2.5 shots (-125)

Elias Lindholm is another guy who benefits mightily from more favorable matchups at home. He's averaged upwards of 15 shot attempts per 60 minutes of hockey in Calgary this season. That number drops to 11.80 per 60 on the road; quite the difference.

I also love the matchup for Lindholm tonight. The Montreal Canadiens have played better under Martin St. Louis, but they're still subpar at suppressing shots.

Best of all, Lindholm should see plenty of the opposing line that gives up the most shots. Rem Pitlick, Jake Evans, and Artturi Lehkonen allow more than 40 shots on goal per 60 at five-on-five. The sample size isn't large, but the early returns suggest this line can be exposed. Lindholm's line will be matched up against them for much of the night, offering plenty of opportunities to get pucks on goal.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.