NHL Wednesday best bets: Avalanche to rebound in Detroit

Our 7-1 run came to an abrupt halt Tuesday night as we lost both of our best bets.

We'll look to get back on track Wednesday as we comb through a couple of plays that stand out the most.

Sabres (-110) @ Canadiens (-110)

The Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens are both bad hockey teams. Terrible, even. They're consistently outshot and outchanced, and neither side has a reliable goaltender it can fall back on.

For me, this play falls down to talent. I believe the Sabres have more firepower than the Canadiens.

It starts with the big line up front. Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and Jeff Skinner have been fantastic since they were put on a line together. They've controlled better than 50% of the chances and expected goals - no small feat on the Sabres - and have outscored opponents by four goals through 136 minutes of five-on-five play.

Montreal's top line had a big game last time out, but the group's underlying offensive metrics aren't as strong as its counterpart's.

I also like that Buffalo has more depth up the middle. Dylan Cozens is a promising sophomore, while Casey Mittelstadt has produced half a point per game since the beginning of last season. Those are solid outputs from your third center. The Canadiens, meanwhile, have next to nothing after Nick Suzuki.

Buffalo has a little more pop in its attack, and I expect that to be the difference.

Bet: Sabres (-110)

Avalanche (-310) @ Red Wings (+245)

This Detroit Red Wings team isn't the pushover it's been in recent years. Even so, I expect the Colorado Avalanche to have their way against the Wings on Wednesday.

Coming off a blowout loss to the Boston Bruins, the Avalanche will no doubt look to respond with a strong showing in Detroit.

They have plenty of paths to do just that. For one, they're the much better five-on-five side. Colorado is 11 spots ahead of Detroit in expected goal share over the last 10 games. The Avalanche should be able to generate chances in bulk, which is problematic given the Red Wings' level of goaltending.

Projected starter Thomas Greiss owns a subpar .902 save percentage and is a negative in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected.

That spells trouble against this Colorado team, especially considering it appears poised for a huge breakout. The Avs sit 22nd in five-on-five goals over the last 10 games despite ranking inside the top five in high-danger chance generation.

Put another way, they've created dangerous opportunities in bulk; they just haven't gone in (Colorado sits 28th in shooting percentage during this spell).

The Avalanche have far too much talent to stay bottled up forever. If the chances continue to be there, the goals will follow. I expect that to be the case in this one against Greiss.

As an added bonus, Detroit has lost by at least two in five straight defeats and eight of 11 in 2022. When the Wings lose, it's generally by multiple goals.

I expect that to be the case in this one, and even more so if captain Dylan Larkin - who's questionable - is unable to play.

Bet: Avalanche -1.5 (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Leafs prospect Amirov diagnosed with brain tumor

Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Rodion Amirov has been diagnosed with a brain tumor, general manager Kyle Dubas announced in a statement Wednesday.

"Rodion commenced the 2021-22 season with Salavat Ufa of the KHL but suffered an injury to open the season. During the course of his recovery from this injury, he developed some new, unrelated symptoms that required ongoing extensive investigations over the last few months," Dubas said.

Amirov is currently at a medical facility in Germany undergoing treatment. The forward, who's with his family, won't return to play for the remainder of the campaign.

"He is skating three times per week and working out every day," Amirov's agent, Dan Milstein, said in a statement. "Rodion is in good spirits and is determined to return back to professional hockey."

Amirov said he's focused on keeping a positive outlook.

"Never give up," he told Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman, as translated by Milstein. "The challenges you are given in life are for you to overcome.

"Always stay positive."

The 20-year-old winger produced a goal and two helpers in 10 KHL games this season. A year earlier, he led Russia with six points in seven contests at the world juniors.

The Maple Leafs drafted Amirov 15th overall in 2020.

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Report: Ducks begin extension talks with Lindholm

The Anaheim Ducks have opened contract negotiations with pending unrestricted free-agent defenseman Hampus Lindholm.

"One of the first things that (general manager) Pat Verbeek ... has done, according to our sources, is reach out to Lindholm's camp led by agent Claude Lemieux and start the process of seeing if there's enough common ground to sign an extension before the trade deadline to remove Hampus Lindholm from the trade market," TSN's Pierre LeBrun reported on Tuesday's edition of "Insider Trading."

Lindholm is in the final season of a six-year pact he inked with the Ducks in the fall of 2016 that carries a cap hit of approximately $5.2 million, according to CapFriendly.

It's unclear whether Anaheim will be sellers ahead of the March 21 deadline, but the 28-year-old would be among the most coveted rental blue-liners if he's available.

The Swedish rearguard is a fixture on the Ducks' back end, averaging 22:46 of ice time this campaign while collecting 20 points in 50 games entering Tuesday's action.

Anaheim also has decisions to make on pending UFA forwards Ryan Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell, among others. The club came into Tuesday night's slate sitting fifth in the Pacific Division in both points and point percentage.

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MacKinnon avoids discipline for slashing linesman

Colorado Avalanche superstar Nathan MacKinnon won't be disciplined for slashing a linesman on Monday against the Boston Bruins, the NHL announced Tuesday.

MacKinnon's stick appeared to make contact with linesman Michel Cormier's shin while attempting to slash an opposing player.

"It has been determined that the player's intention was not to strike the official but, rather, to initiate contact with the opposing player," the league said in a statement.

MacKinnon has never been suspended in his nine-year career. The only blemish on his resume is a $5,000 fine last season for unsportsmanlike conduct after tossing a helmet at Conor Garland.

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Devils’ Hamilton expected to return Thursday after 17-game absence

New Jersey Devils defenseman Dougie Hamilton is expected to return to the lineup on Thursday against the Pittsburgh Penguins after missing the last 17 games with a broken jaw.

"I'm looking forward to him being back in the lineup," Devils head coach Lindy Ruff said. "I'm counting on him being in. I've had a conversation with him, he said he's ready to go and we're ready to put him back in."

Hamilton is expected to wear a full face shield in his return.

"At the start I couldn't have any pressure on it so I had to find something that had the pressure off it, but I couldn't play with that mask. I think it's at the point now where my jaw is solid and I'm able to put a pad on my chin and use that mask," Hamilton said.

The 28-year-old has recorded seven goals and 13 assists in 30 games this season. It's his first campaign with the Devils after signing a seven-year, $63-million contract as a free agent in the offseason.

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Stars GM hopes to extend Pavelski before trade deadline

One of the best players mentioned in trade deadline rumors may not become available after all.

Dallas Stars general manager Jim Nill said he hopes to sign pending unrestricted free-agent forward Joe Pavelski to an extension.

"That's what I hope," Nill told The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun. "I want to see where Joe is at. We got to look at our cap situation, too. And I think he'll have some questions he'll want answered. We'll have some questions. But my mindset is that we want to bring him back. He's been a great fit for us. He's a big part of our community and our team.

"We'll sit down and discuss that."

Pavelski is in the final season of a three-year, $21-million contract he signed as a UFA with Dallas in 2019. The 37-year-old continues to age like a fine wine, leading the Stars with 53 points in 49 games this season.

The Stars sit fifth in the Central Division and ninth in the Western Conference in points percentage. Their play over the next month will likely determine Nill's approach at the March 21 trade deadline.

"We just had our meetings and we went through all those scenarios," Nill said. "We're prepared for that. We've walked through all those scenarios. It might come down to that last week where we have to make some tough calls."

In addition to Pavelski, Dallas' notable pending UFAs include defenseman John Klingberg, forward Alexander Radulov, and goaltender Braden Holtby.

The Stars project to have roughly $28 million in cap space for next season, per CapFriendly, with restricted free agents Denis Gurianov and Jake Oettinger due for raises.

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NHL Tuesday player props: Home cooking for Eberle, Ekblad

We have six games on the docket Tuesday, which means there are plenty of player props to comb through.

Let's take a closer look at two of my favorites.

Jordan Eberle over 2.5 shots (+105)

On the surface, the Islanders are not a team you would perceive to be a good prop target for shots against. But perception tells a different story than reality.

At five-on-five, they have given up 60.33 shot attempts per 60 minutes over their last 10 road dates. That's one of the NHL's worst rates, slotting them 27th in that span. They give up plenty of volume when they can't control the matchups.

Also working in Eberle's favor: The Islanders struggle to defend against right-wingers. Only five teams concede more shots per game to the position.

Eberle's raw shot volume is also higher at home and - if you're into narratives - there's the revenge factor for Eberle. The Kraken forward has faced the Islanders once already but, in a season that's otherwise lost, a matchup against the team that exposed him in the expansion draft could provide a little extra motivation.

Aaron Ekblad over 2.5 shots (-148)

Aaron Ekblad, like his Panthers as a whole, is particularly lethal when playing on home soil.

Ekblad has averaged 3.3 shots on goal per game in Florida this season, which has allowed him to go over the number 19 times in 25 tries. That's a remarkable 76% hit rate.

What's even more impressive is Ekblad started the season somewhat slowly, hitting in four of his first seven at home. Since then, he has registered at least three shots in 15 of 18, which is a ridiculous 83.33% hit rate.

The Predators are a solid team but definitely not one we have to avoid, especially when away from home. Nashville ranks 27th in shot suppression at five-on-five over its last 10 road dates.

Ekblad should have no problem taking advantage of this matchup.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: Maple Leafs to rebound in Columbus

We're coming off a successful week of betting, going 7-1 with our best bets.

We'll look to pick up where we left off as we start anew on Tuesday. Let's get down to business.

Maple Leafs (-230) @ Blue Jackets (+190)

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost by three goals to one of the worst teams in hockey on Monday. And, you know what? I'm going right back to them against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

You don't need me to tell you Toronto is one of the best offensive teams in the NHL. They have a ton of firepower and, statistically speaking, they're one of the league's best at generating chances. If skill players get opportunities in bulk, they're going to score.

I expect the Maple Leafs to get a ton of them against the Blue Jackets. Over the last 10 games, Columbus ranks 28th in high-danger chances against and 31st in expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play.

Giving up that kind of volume is a risky proposition no matter who is between the pipes. It just so happens J.F. Berube is expected to get the nod in this one.

The 36-year-old journeyman netminder has consistently posted sub .900 save percentages in the AHL over the last few years. Expecting him to slow the Maple Leafs - who should be chomping at the bit to redeem themselves after Monday's disastrous showing - is unrealistic, to say the least.

I like the Maple Leafs to score early and often in this one.

Bet: Leafs -1.5 (+105)

Sharks (+125) @ Ducks (-150)

The wheels are coming off the San Jose Sharks. They've won just once over the last eight games and their underlying metrics in that span have been downright miserable - especially defensively.

At five-on-five, they've conceded more than 69 shot attempts per 60 minutes. They have also given up 3.48 expected goals against and 16.13 high-danger chances against per 60 minutes. They rank dead last in the NHL - well behind even the Arizona Coyotes - in each of those categories.

For perspective, the Anaheim Ducks have allowed 55.21 attempts, 2.67 expected goals, and 11.20 high-danger chances per 60 over the same span. They haven't exactly been stout and yet their defensive metrics are several tiers above San Jose's.

I expect the Ducks will be able to control the run of play in this game. They should generate more quality opportunities and, based on the projected goaltending matchup (James Reimer vs. John Gibson), I feel better about the Ducks getting the saves they need.

Back Anaheim to take care of business against the slumping Sharks.

Bet: Ducks (-150)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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