Like testing the waters of a bubbling hot tub, we're dipping our toe back into the NHL season. While we're at peak levels of uncertainty these days, it's still worth wading through the cloudy picture of the daily schedule to project the moneylines for the games this week - with the obvious caveat that the rosters can change quite literally at any time.
The recipe
Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
Two weeks ago, we posted my 2021-22 season ratings that use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering the forced and longer-than-usual break the NHL had over the holidays, we'll use an even 50-50 split between those ratings and the pre-season priors via the regular-season point-total markets.
The cheat sheet
The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected near a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to be a worthwhile wager. Also, I have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.
| DATE | GAME | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 3 | EDM@NYR | -105/+105 | EDM -101/NYR +123 |
| Jan. 4 | NJD@BOS | +157/-157 | NJD +186/BOS -151 |
| CGY@FLA | +140/-140 | CGY +166/FLA -134 | |
| TBL@CBJ | -147/+147 | TBL -141/CBJ +174 | |
| SJS@DET | -112/+112 | SJS -108/DET +132 | |
| COL@CHI | -142/+142 | COL -136/CHI +168 | |
| WPG@ARI | -145/+145 | WPG -140/ARI +172 | |
| PHI@ANA | -103/+103 | PHI +107/ANA +114 | |
| NSH@VGK | +156/-156 | NSH +185/VGK -149 | |
| Jan. 5 | EDM@TOR | +119/-119 | EDM +141/TOR -115 |
| STL@PIT | +135/-135 | STL +160/PIT -130 | |
| Jan. 6 | SJS@BUF | -102/+102 | SJS +108/BUF +113 |
| CBJ@NJD | +142/-142 | CBJ +168/NJD-136 | |
| MIN@BOS | +116/-116 | MIN +137/BOS -112 | |
| CGY@TB | +140/-140 | CGY +165/TB -134 | |
| PIT@PHI | -102/+102 | PIT +108/PHI +113 | |
| FLA@DAL | -112/+112 | FLA -107/DAL +131 | |
| CHI@ARI | -122/+122 | CHI -117/ARI +143 | |
| WPG@COL | +143/-143 | WPG +169/COL -137 | |
| OTT@SEA | +152/-152 | OTT +180/SEA -145 | |
| DET@ANA | +107/-107 | DET +118/ANA +103 | |
| NYR@VGK | +140/-140 | NYR +166/VGK -135 | |
| NSH@LAK | -114/+114 | NSH -109/LAK +134 | |
| Jan. 7 | CGY@CAR | +137/-137 | CGY +161/CAR -131 |
| WSH@STL | +103/-103 | WSH +107/STL +114 | |
| Jan. 8 | PIT@DAL | -111/+111 | PIT -107/DAL +131 |
| TOR@COL | +106/-106 | TOR +117/COL +104 | |
| NJD@CBJ | +104/-104 | NJD +107/CBJ +114 | |
| BOS@TBL | +124/-124 | BOS +146/TB -119 | |
| FLA@CAR | -100/+100 | FLA +110/CAR +110 | |
| SJS@PHI | +127/-127 | SJS +149/PHI -122 | |
| WSH@MIN | +132/-132 | WSH +155/MIN -126 | |
| NSH@ARI | -139/+139 | NSH -133/ARI +164 | |
| CHI@VGK | +179/-179 | CHI +214/VGK -171 | |
| NYR@ANA | -125/+125 | NYR -120/ANA +148 | |
| OTT@VAN | +183/-183 | OTT +219/VAN -175 | |
| DET@LAK | +149/-149 | DET +176/LAK -143 | |
| Jan. 9 | DAL@STL | +156/-156 | DAL +186/STL -150 |
This chart is a good reference to determine whether you're truly getting value betting on one side or the other. However, keep in mind that new injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise. So if you notice a big discrepancy, make sure to do a quick search for any major lineup issues for the team you want to bet on.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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