Ottawa Senators owner Eugene Melnyk didn't really support the idea of sending NHL players to the 2022 Beijing Olympics - mainly because of a haunting memory involving Dominik Hasek in 2006.
"You don’t want your players to go over there and get hurt," Melnyk told Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch. "It’s a nightmare, I’ve lived it, and it cost us the chance of winning a Stanley Cup.
"I don’t want to get caught again because doing it once was enough."
The Senators were one of the NHL's most dominant teams during the 2005-06 season, with a 41-year-old Hasek in the crease. During the first half of the campaign, he recorded a stellar .925 save percentage and 2.09 goals against average in 43 contests.
The club allowed Hasek to suit up for the Czech Republic at the 2006 Turin Olympics. While playing for his country, he suffered an adductor muscle tear less than 10 minutes into his first game of the tournament.
Hasek remained sidelined for the remainder of the season while Ray Emery took over as the team's starter. Ottawa finished first in the Eastern Conference but bowed out of the playoffs in the second round.
"The thing that happened, that we all feared, actually happened (with Hasek getting hurt)," Melnyk said. "You don’t have a lot of chances to win a Stanley Cup. That was our year, and that was our chance, and it was taken away from us."
Hasek went on to sign with the Detroit Red Wings during the offseason, concluding his only campaign with the Senators. The club made it to the Stanley Cup Final the following year but lost to the Anaheim Ducks.
The NHL not going to the Beijing Olympics sucks. Flat-out sucks.
Sucks for young players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, who are in their prime. Sucks for older players like Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, whose careers are starting to wind down. Sucks for fans everywhere. Sucks for the NHL's image. Sucks for the sport, plain and simple.
But we've had a few days to dwell on it. Time to look ahead.
Andre Ringuette / Getty Images
What the NHL and NHL players' association should be turning their collective attention to in the near future is the big picture. Because withdrawing from Beijing was a letdown in a series of letdowns. Hashing out a long-term international calendar is imperative to not only the growth of the sport but also to cultivating tradition beyond the Stanley Cup. And if that means prioritizing the World Cup of Hockey, so be it.
There needs to be a best-on-best international event and, as painful as it is to type this, it's become abundantly clear the Olympics aren't that event in the current climate. (Check back after commissioner Gary Bettman and PA executive director Donald Fehr have retired.) The league and PA can leave the door open for Winter Games participation while satisfying the international hockey itch by targeting non-Olympic years for the World Cup. How about starting a new era in 2023? A second event in 2025? Third in 2027?
Peter Power / Getty Images
Lock it in and get to work on making the World Cup standardized and meaningful. No Team North America. No Team Europe. Leave the gimmicks for All-Star Weekend. The World Cup should be eight of the best hockey countries competing for shiny medals and that strange-looking trophy.
It'll take a few cycles to build up momentum and tradition, of course. But if by 2027 the World Cup is the hockey event worldwide, well, everybody wins.
Doing it properly involves proper timing, too. September didn't quite work in 2016 - the tournament had serious preseason vibes. Try January or February, when the players are in fine form. Yep, it'll require shutting down the season for two or three weeks, but, again, you're investing in building a sustainable future of thrilling international hockey under the NHL/NHLPA banner.
Do it right and, eventually, the Olympics will just be the cherry on top.
Flames' Lindholm for Selke?
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Elias Lindholm has received 15 votes for the Selke Trophy over his career - 14 in 2018-19 and one in 2019-20. None of those were for first place.
That may change by season's end.
Lindholm has been fantastic for Calgary through 28 games - a chief reason the Flames are fifth in the Western Conference in points percentage. He's been particularly effective on the defensive side of the puck, and if Selke ballots were due today, I might have the 27-year-old Swede in the No. 1 spot.
Everybody has their own process for evaluating a forward's defensive impact, so the strength of Lindholm's Selke candidacy is far from bulletproof, especially with so much of the season remaining. That said, he checks a lot of boxes.
The Flames are a juggernaut when Lindholm is on the ice at five-on-five. His on-ice goals for and expected goals for rates - 82.8% and 61.0%, respectively, according to Evolving Hockey - are elite. Looking strictly at defense, Calgary's five-on-five numbers with Lindholm are still fabulous - a mere five goals against in 389 minutes and a 2.0 xGA/60 rate.
Some forwards rank higher than Lindholm in certain on-ice metrics, but most of them play sheltered roles or bottom-six minutes against relatively weak competition. Lindholm is incredibly important to the Flames' entire operation; no-nonsense head coach Darryl Sutter leans on him for 20:15 of ice time a night, usually against the opposition's top talent.
Lindholm spends 2:15 a game playing shorthanded. It's not a deal-breaker for Selke consideration if a player doesn't see the ice in penalty-kill situations or while the opponent has its goalie pulled. But it's certainly a huge plus that Lindholm is a key member of the league's third-best penalty kill.
Also of note: Lindholm is solid in the faceoff circle with a 52.5% success rate. He's on the right side in penalty differential (plus-1). And he both steals pucks (20 takeaways) and eats pucks (16 blocked shots) on a regular basis. Anybody who's watched a Sutter-era Flames game knows each player benefits from Sutter's defensive structure and emphasis on responsible hockey. But Lindholm goes above and beyond with his consistent attention to detail.
On top of the defensive work, Lindholm's accumulated 11 goals and 16 assists for 27 points, just shy of a point per game. The definition of the award doesn't require the winner to be competent offensively, but I believe a good offense can be a good defense (and vice versa). In other words, while I don't automatically exclude defensive specialists from the Selke evaluation process, players who crush it in all three zones get bonus marks.
Four others with strong early season Selke cases (according to my personal parameters): four-time winner Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand in Boston, Anthony Cirelli in Tampa Bay, and Mark Stone in Vegas.
Paul Maurice, hockey savant
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Plenty of digital ink has been spilled over Paul Maurice's resignation. And rightfully so - Maurice is well-respected as both a hockey coach and hockey philosopher. Plus, the timing of the resignation itself was notable.
Let's rewind for a moment ...
It's a decade ago. Rod Brind'Amour has recently transitioned into coaching after a highly successful playing career. Brind'Amour, then just a wide-eyed assistant in Carolina, walks into the coaches' room excited to tell Maurice, his boss, about a tiny detail he'd noticed in a practice or game. You know, something 99.9% of the population would never notice.
Maurice, who was in his second stint as the Hurricanes head coach, simply nods in response. "Damn," Brind'Amour thought to himself, "there's nothing this guy doesn't catch." This happened time and time again.
"There's a shit-ton going on in a game. I mean, so much," Brind'Amour told theScore during an interview in September, recalling the impression left by Maurice. "All the way down to every fine detail, there's a lot, and he doesn't miss any of it."
Darcy Finley / Getty Images
Back then, Brind'Amour figured this savant-level intelligence was typical of NHL head coaches. He became discouraged and started questioning himself. Was he smart enough to climb the ranks? Could he ever become a head guy?
"I was amazed," Brind'Amour said. "(Maurice) would have four assistant coaches talking to him as he was walking to the locker room, like down the hallway between periods. He'd go, 'What do we need to do? What's the adjustment?' And he'd have four different things thrown his way. 'We've got to do this, this, this, this.' As he's walking in, he'd go, 'OK.' Then he'd get to the front of the room and go, 'Duh, duh, duh, duh.' Everything at once."
Brind'Amour notes he's the opposite now that he's the boss in Carolina. The reigning Jack Adams Award winner needs to know ahead of time exactly what he's going to relay to his players between periods. And then Brind'Amour delivers it in a short burst.
"But he can just spit it all out and make sense of it clearly," he said of Maurice.
"Everybody plays basically the same way," Brind'Amour continued, talking generally about the influence of NHL coaches. "Honestly, there's such subtle differences. That's not where the differences lie. The differences lie in how coaches talk to players and get the most out of their players."
Ultimately, Maurice believed he was no longer able to get the most out of his Jets players. But that doesn't mean the hockey savant can't pull off the trick elsewhere. Maurice will be back soon. Count on it.
Don't sleep on Slovakia
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Slovakia could easily lose three of four round-robin games at the world juniors in Alberta over the holidays. After all, they've been placed in a stacked Group B that also features the United States, Sweden, Russia, and Switzerland.
Regardless of the win-loss record, intrigue around the Slovaks will be exceptionally high. Slovakia is icing a handful of legitimate NHL prospects, including LA Kings pick Martin Chromiak and three projected 2022 first-rounders in Simon Nemec, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Filip Mesar.
Nemec, an all-situations right-handed defenseman, could potentially go in the top five next July. (Marian Gaborik, drafted third overall in 2000, is the country's highest NHL draft pick.) Scouts love Nemec's mobility and hockey sense. Named MVP at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup in August, he's excelled in Slovakia's pro league this season, collecting 13 points in 22 games.
Up front, keep an eye out for the big-bodied Slafkovsky and speedy Mesar. Slafkovsky, a potential top-10 pick, is a playmaker who can really shoot the puck. He plays in Finland's Liiga. Mesar, who plays in Slovakia, is smaller in stature but possesses quick hands and feet, and a motor that doesn't quit.
Parting thoughts
Tank update: The 6-21-2 Arizona Coyotes are on pace for just 17 wins. GM Bill Armstrong is reportedly "gauging the market" on Jakob Chychrun. The star defenseman is worth a first-round pick and much more. Incredibly, Arizona already owns three first-rounders and five second-rounders in 2022.
Tage Thompson: From the doghouse to top-line center, what a first 30 games it has been for the giant Buffalo Sabres forward. Thompson has already set career highs in goals (10) and points (18). He might be the most pleasant surprise of the season.
Tage Thompson has become an absolute bear to handle and the most noticeable Sabre on the ice.
Milestone check: Joe Thornton is two games played away from 1,700, potentially on his way to passing Ron Francis (1,731) and Jaromir Jagr (1,733) for a spot in the top four all time. Sidney Crosby is 10 goals away from 500, a mark only 45 other players have reached. Marc-Andre Fleury is already in the top 15 all time in shutouts, but he's one away from 70.
Further down the career leaderboards, Claude Giroux is one assist away from 600. Nicklas Backstrom is 19 points away from 700. Braden Holtby is six wins away from 300.
"We stay in touch throughout the season and got a lot of respect for him as a player, how good he is at scoring goals, his shot, just his overall game," Kane said of Matthews, NBC Sports Chicago's Charlie Roumeliotis reports.
"He’s become one of the best players in the league, so would’ve been huge to have that type of player on the U.S. team and maybe get a chance to play with him as well. Hopefully, we can get a chance to play together in the future, another big tournament, and have that opportunity."
Team USA would've sent arguably its deepest roster ever to Beijing to capture its first gold in men's hockey since the Miracle on Ice in 1980. Kane represented the stars and stripes at the 2010 and 2014 games, but he knows the younger generation of American stars, led by Matthews, had a strong chance to do something special.
"I just think in general, for USA Hockey, we would’ve put together a pretty competitive team, and that’s disappointing," Kane said. "I don’t think that’ll change four years from now, but would’ve been fun to have that opportunity and welcome the next generation of USA hockey players and be able to be part of that."
Matthews hasn't had the chance to play an international tournament since breaking into the NHL in 2016. He suited up and dazzled for Team North America at the World Cup of Hockey before his rookie season, but there hasn't been a best-on-best tournament since.
The reigning Maurice "Rocket" Richard winner was a virtual lock to be Team USA's top center, and Kane was a shoo-in for a top-six role on the right wing in what may have been his final chance to compete at the Olympics. The three-time Stanley Cup winner will be 37 if the NHL is able to go to Milan in 2026.
We're still roughly three months away from the 2022 NHL trade deadline, but it’s never too early to look at who could be dealt. Below, we explore five high-profile players who could find themselves on the move.
Jakob Chychrun, Coyotes
Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Position: LD Cap hit: $4.6M Years left: 4
Chychrun is the only non-rental on this list. He's also just 23 years old and finished in the top-10 in Norris Trophy voting a year ago. This seems to be the type of player the Coyotes should try and build around rather than trade away.
However, that apparently hasn't stopped Arizona from gauging the market. Given that Chychrun is signed long term, the rebuilding Yotes should be in no rush to pull the trigger and only do so if they get a haul in return.
Chychrun is having a miserable season, too, so his trade value likely isn't at an all-time high. It's hard to blame him, considering how bad the team is. He's recorded just two goals and five assists in 26 games while logging 24:50 of ice time per contest. Plus/minus is a flawed stat, but his minus-29 rating is nearly double the second-worst in the league.
Nonetheless, nearly every team should be at least reaching out to Arizona for the asking price. He's a two-way defender with size and speed entering the prime of his career on a bargain contract - those don't grow on trees. It's also fair to assume he would flourish with a stronger supporting cast.
Best fits: Bruins, Flames, Hurricanes, Oilers, Panthers, Rangers, Blues, Maple Leafs, Canucks, Capitals
Tomas Hertl, Sharks
Ezra Shaw / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Position: C Cap hit: $5.625M Years left: 1
The Sharks are in unfamiliar waters. After a two-decade run of competitiveness, they're on track to miss the playoffs for the third straight season for the first time in franchise history. They can't quite commit to a full teardown due to the veteran contingent that remains under contract long term, so they're trying to retool on the fly.
San Jose would probably like to keep Hertl around, but it'd be smart to move on. At 28 years old, Hertl's likely going to command a lucrative long-term contract (Evolving-Hockey projects he inks a seven-year deal with an $8.14-million cap hit). The Sharks already have four players (Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic) on the wrong side of 30 signed through at least 2024-25 making at minimum $7-million per season.
Instead of committing to another pact that could go sideways, the Sharks are better off attempting to trade Hertl for a bundle of assets that can help the team get younger.
There is one significant obstacle in this plan: Hertl's contract contains a three-team trade list. If Hertl wants, he could leverage this to make it nearly impossible to trade him. The Sharks need to hope he's willing to help facilitate a deal to a contender. Otherwise, they could see him walk for nothing at the season's end.
There will be no shortage of interest. Hertl is a big, strong, skilled, two-way center who could be the missing piece for center-needy teams vying for a Stanley Cup. He's recorded 14 goals and eight assists in 30 games this season. The Czech pivot also has a stellar playoff resume with 24 goals and 18 helpers in 62 career postseason contests.
Best fits: Bruins,Wild, Rangers, Penguins
Marc-Andre Fleury, Blackhawks
Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Position: G Cap hit: $7M Years left: 1
The Blackhawks' splashy offseason has not paid immediate dividends, as the club sits seventh in the Central Division and 14th in the Western Conference. It's been no fault of Fleury's, who owns a respectable .913 save percentage in 20 appearances.
Given that the 37-year-old pondered retirement this past offseason, Chicago would be smart to get whatever assets it can for the pending UFA. The Blackhawks can maximize their return for Fleury if they're willing to retain half his salary, too.
Fleury does have a 10-team no-trade list in his contract, which could complicate things considering very few contenders have a need between the pipes. For the teams that do, targeting the three-time Stanley Cup champion should be a no-brainer.
Best fits: Oilers, Capitals
Mark Giordano, Kraken
Steph Chambers / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Position: LD Cap hit: $6.75M Years left: 1
It appears there will be no inaugural season miracle for the Kraken. They've performed more like a typical expansion team, sitting last in the Pacific Divison and second-last in the Western Conference.
This makes Giordano a near-lock to be traded. While he is the team's captain, he's also 38 years old, so an extension is unlikely. His contract does contain a 19-team no-trade list, but Giordano's never won a Cup and likely wants to chase a ring.
Giordano's basic stats suggest a decline. He's recorded just eight points in 24 games, putting him on pace for his worst offensive season in nearly a decade. His minus-11 rating is also a career low.
The underlying numbers remain strong. His 53.7% expected goals share is the best among Seattle's regular blue-liners, and his 1.94 expected goals against per 60 minutes would stand as his best since 2010-11. He could still adequately serve as a second-pairing defenseman on a contending team.
Best fits: Bruins,Flames, Blues, Maple Leafs, Capitals
Claude Giroux, Flyers
Mitchell Leff / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Position: C/LW/RW Cap hit: $8.275M Years left: 1
This is more of a wild card, but it's something to watch for. Giroux has been with the Flyers for his entire 15-year career and it would only be fitting for him to retire in Philly. However, the team is in the midst of a disastrous season relative to preseason expectations. They sit sixth in the Metropolitan Division and are bound to be deadline sellers.
Giroux's contract contains a full no-movement clause, so his future is in his own hands. It seems more likely that he inks an extension to stay, but if he did approve a trade, the Flyers could get a nice return (especially if they retain 50% of his salary), and he could always come back in the offseason.
The 33-year-old is a better fit on the wing at this point in his career, but he can still play center in a pinch. He's remained productive this season, tallying 25 points in 29 games so far. He's also won 61.6% of his faceoffs.
In the lead-up to the 2022 World Junior Championship, we're looking back at the 25 best players to wear the Canadian jersey at the tournament. Rather than evaluating entire careers, these rankings are based solely on performances during the world juniors. We'll reveal five players each day, culminating with the best of the best Dec. 25.
The 1992 world juniors was a rough one for Team Canada. Despite boasting a talented roster that included Eric Lindros, the squad stumbled to a sixth-place finish. Legace was at the heart of Canada's gold-medal-winning rebound the following year.
Legace put up a gargantuan 58-save effort in a must-win victory against Finland after handing silver-winning Sweden its only loss of the round-robin tournament. (Between Peter Forsberg, Markus Naslund, and Niklas Sundstrom, the Swedes had three of the tournament's top five scorers.) Legace was deemed the best goaltender and named to the All-Star team.
19. Jarome Iginla (1996)
GP
G
A
6
5
7
Iginla only played in one world junior tournament, but he made it count. The recently inducted Hockey Hall of Famer tied for the overall lead in goals and points at the 1996 tourney as Canada claimed gold for a fourth straight year. He was named the event's best forward and remains tied for seventh all time among Canadian junior skaters with his rate of two points per game.
Like many superstars before and after him, Iginla's world junior experience was limited because he was good enough to stick in the NHL afterward. He would later shine on the international stage at the World Championship, the World Cup of Hockey, and three Olympics.
18. Justin Pogge (2006)
Dave Sandford / Getty Images Sport / Getty
Record
GAA
SV%
6-0-0
1.00
.952
If you ask Canadian hockey fans to name the most memorable goaltending performance at the world juniors, chances are many will mention Pogge's. He was barely on Canada's radar entering the 2006 tournament but managed to make his way into the selection camp and ultimately got himself the starting role.
He put together one of the most dominant tournaments ever seen by a goalie, posting three shutouts in six contests, which included a 35-save shutout against an Evgeni Malkin-led Russian team in the gold-medal game. Pogge may have ultimately been a one-hit wonder as he went on to appear in just seven NHL games, but what a hit he was.
17. Dale McCourt (1977)
GP
G
A
7
10
8
McCourt certainly isn't the most renowned name on this list, but his efforts in a silver-medal showing in 1977 are among the greatest put forth by a Canadian at the event. His 18 points are the sixth-most in tournament history, and his 2.57 points per game are the third-most by anyone to don the red and white.
McCourt's dominant tournament helped him go first overall to the Detroit Red Wings the following spring.
16. Cody Hodgson (2009)
GP
G
A
6
5
11
Hodgson is in the conversation for best individual performance at the world juniors. His 2.67 points per contest are second all time among Canadians (minimum five games played), trailing only Wayne Gretzky, who played in a much higher-scoring era.
The dynamic center didn't just beat up on weak countries in the round robin, either, as he potted two goals and added an assist in Canada's 5-1 win over Sweden to clinch gold.
Hodgson was eligible to play in 2010, but a back injury forced him to miss out. Canada lost to the United States in overtime in the gold-medal game, and it's fair to wonder if Hodgson's presence would've made the difference.
Unfortunately, Hodgson's pro career was cut short after being diagnosed with malignant hyperthermia. But his dominant '09 world juniors will always serve as a reminder of his potential.
Doug Armstrong's time as general manager of Canada's Olympic men's hockey team was cut short after the NHL confirmed players wouldn't be competing at the 2022 Beijing Games.
The 57-year-old executive, who also serves as general manager of the St. Louis Blues, stepped down from his post earlier on Wednesday, according to The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun.
The full 25-man roster was going to be announced on Jan. 12.
"This last month was gonna be a big scouting month for all of us to round out the group and get our coaches involved," Armstrong told Thomas. "We probably had eight or nine more players to pick out of 14 or 15 (candidates). So it was getting down to the nitty-gritty."
Though Armstrong didn't get to see these Olympics through, he added that Canada's selection process "evolves (with) watching young players get better. It evolves with watching veteran players fight off Father Time."
While acknowledging that the NHL's decision to not send its players to the best-on-best tournament is disappointing, Armstrong said he understands the league's thinking.
"With the latest surge and the cancellation of games, the uncertainty of what's ahead of us - I certainly support and understand both the (NHL)PA and the league's decision," he said.
Armstrong also confirmed that Pittsburgh Penguins star Sidney Crosby would have been named team captain, according to LeBrun.
"When we got our management staff named, the first decision we made was to reach out to Sidney and let him know that we would love him to be our captain; this was well over a year ago," Armstrong said.
Armstrong was named general manager of Canada's Olympic squad back in February.
A first-round pick in 2015, Senyshyn has spent the majority of his career with the team's AHL affiliate in Providence. Looking for a larger opportunity, he's asked GM Don Sweeney for a trade through his agent, according to team beat writer Mark Divver.
"Obviously, I'm super thankful to everyone in Providence for all of their help in the development of my game, but I want to play in the NHL," he said. "I feel like I haven't been given that opportunity in the Bruins organization.
"I feel like my game has gotten to that level where I'm ready to play and I'm ready to make an impact. With the way the Bruins organization has been going, it just doesn’t seem like I'm in the mix."
The 24-year-old forward has played in just 14 games with the Bruins across three seasons and last suited up in an NHL contest on May 11. He's scored just one goal and tallied two assists.
Senyshyn added that a fresh start would be best for him moving forward.
"With all of the backlash with the media, considering where I was drafted and everything going on there, it's just been a lot emotionally," he said. "I'm not being used at all."
Senyshyn has logged 48 goals and 44 assists in 213 career AHL games.
He isn't the only Bruins 2015 first-rounder to request a trade this season. Jake DeBrusk's agent confirmed he asked to be moved back in November.
Their third consecutive first-round pick that year, defenseman Jakub Zboril, went 13th overall and has since played in 54 NHL games across three campaigns. The blue-liner will miss the rest of the 2021-22 season with a torn ACL.
DeBrusk and Senyshyn went 14th and 15th overall, respectively.
The holidays are just around the corner, and you know what that means: The return of the World Junior Hockey Championship.
The annual tournament gets started in a few days, with four games kicking things off on Sunday.
Let's get you set for several weeks of what should be high-action, drama-filled hockey.
TEAM
ODDS
Canada
+140
USA
+330
Russia
+550
Finland
+650
Sweden
+650
Czech Republic
+1000
Germany
+4000
Switzerland
+5000
Slovakia
+5000
Austria
+18000
Canada (+140)
Team Canada enters this tournament as favorites, and for good reason. Its lineup is stacked, especially at forward. Up front, they have a plethora of highly skilled first-round picks in Kent Johnson, Cole Perfetti, and Mason McTavish, among others, and the latter two already have some NHL experience. There is quality depth throughout the forward group, including wild cards like Shane Wright and Connor Bedard - two youngsters expected to go first overall over the next couple of drafts.
More question marks lie with the defense. The Canadians shockingly left Brandt Clarke off the team despite him finding success in Slovakia's pro league last season, being the eighth overall selection, and producing at better than a point per game pace with the Barrie Colts this year. Canada expected Clarke to be a key cog on the backend, so his absence is questionable, to say the least - particularly with zero right-handed defensemen on the roster. Even so, it probably won't matter. Owen Power is more than capable of heading the defense, Olen Zellweger is quickly rising in the ranks in terms of top defense prospects league-wide, and Kaiden Guhle's brunt style should provide some stoutness to the blue line.
This squad seems destined to play for gold.
USA (+330)
Team USA looks like a very balanced side. Its forward group isn't loaded with future offensive stars, but there's enough talent to win a lot of games. Matty Beniers, Matt Coronato, and Sasha Pastjujov are the team's most skilled weapons and should cause problems, especially on the power play. I don't see a ton of firepower beyond those guys, but Team USA might not need it since its defense should be extremely stout. All eight defenders on the roster are on NHL teams, so there's a nice mix of high-end talent (Luke Hughes, Jake Sanderson) and experience (Tyler Kleven, Scott Morrow, etc.) that should neuter opposing attacks.
The big question for me: Can they keep up? USA should give up very few shots/chances against soft competition, thus winning handily. But against top teams, their goaltending could be problematic. There's only one drafted goaltender on the roster (Drew Commesso), and he has a .900 save percentage in the NCAA this year. If he can't hold up, I'm not sure USA can outscore its problems against top-end opponents.
I'll likely fade USA against other heavyweights, especially if favored.
Russia (+550)
Russia builds its lineup the same way every single year. The team has a few star players and surrounds them with a ton of veterans. Forget 16 and 17-year-olds - Russia even carries very few 18-year-old players. The Russians like to bring bigger, stronger, and more mature players who have been in the system longer. This year is no different, with 17 players on its roster who are 19 years old.
I expect Russia to make a lot of noise in this tournament. Minnesota Wild prospect Murat Khusnutdinov is one of the best-kept secrets in hockey. Khusnutdinov and Alexander Pashin will head the offense and no doubt pile up the points throughout. The defense, headlined by returnee Shakir Mukhamadullin, should be good as well, and Yaroslav Askarov is more than capable of masking any of the squad's mistakes and stealing games.
This team is going to give up very little to opposing offenses and rely on its stars for a push across the finish line. I think Russia's a legit contender in this tournament. Unders could be especially appealing when the side reaches the elimination round.
Finland (+650)
Finland is following the same model as Team Russia this time around, littering its lineup with 19-year-old players and having 10 returnees from last year's squad. Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Topi Niemela is going to head what should be one of the tournament's best blue lines, and Finland's goaltending should be good as well. This team really won't concede many goals.
My worry is Finland struggle to score against high-end competition. While the roster does have seven drafted forwards, there isn't much in the way of high picks or top-end talent.
Finland's goal will be to beat up on the soft competition and hope to bleed offenses dry when playing against the best teams. Like Russia, this could be a side to target with unders when games matter most.
Sweden (+650)
I think Sweden is the most underrated team in the tournament by far. The team's not getting nearly enough respect on the betting market. There simply aren't many - or any? - holes.
We'll start with the forwards. The Swedes have 12 NHL-drafted players, including first-rounders like William Eklund, Alex Holtz, and Oskar Olausson. That trio expects to play together on what might be the best and most dynamic line in the entire competition.
Simon Edvinsson should play 25 minutes a night on the backend and absolutely dominate at both ends of the rink every time he's out there. Sweden doesn't have another defender close to his caliber, but they do have five other drafted players who should nicely compliment Edvinsson.
In the crease, Sweden has not one, not two, but three 19-year-old netminders on NHL franchises. If Jesper Wallstedt falters as the team's No. 1 goalie for any reason, the Swedes have the talented depth to pick up the slack.
I see value on Sweden to take the tournament outright, and I'll no doubt be looking to bag them as underdogs against other prominent countries.
The long shots
I don't think much of this Czech Republic side. They have a few nice pieces on the roster but none capable of dominating against high-end opponents. The Czechs could beat up on some weaker clubs - and potentially hang in some low-scoring affairs against a defense-first team like Finland - but there isn't much hope to claim a medal. The most value you'll get betting Czech Republic games might come after potential blowout wins, thus having the market overreact about its chances of hanging with a powerhouse team.
Germany made some noise in the past by playing their stars into the ground, which helped mask depth issues. Unfortunately, that's not an option this year. Tim Stutzle, J.J. Peterka, and Co. are all playing pro hockey in North America and were not released to play for their country, so Germany only has two drafted prospects rostered and no high draft picks. The Germans' ceiling - as in best case scenario - is likely stealing a game against the Czech Republic in which the former will get outshot 15-20.
It feels like every year, Switzerland upsets a squad far out of its weight class or at least comes close to doing so. I don't see that happening this year. The Swiss just don't have the horses to keep up with USA, Russia, or Sweden - all of whom they'll face in group play.
That leaves Slovakia as the only hope for a win, and I think the chances of pulling even that off are slim. Don't let just three drafted prospects fool you - this Slovakia team has talent. Behind two projected 2022 first-round picks in Filip Mesar and Simon Nemec, this team has quite a few budding stars poised to hear their names called in a few months. I think Slovakia could be a great value if remotely close to even money against Switzerland, and the side might be a puck line play against a team like USA due to potential issues in goal.
Lastly, we have Austria, an emerging hockey country that still has a way to go. The team doesn't (yet) have a drafted player, and structure can only take teenagers so far. Players this age are prone to being sucked into the emotions of the game, which can lead to missed assignments, bad penalties, and more. It's easy to get distracted into the lows, and unfortunately, there will probably be many for Team Austria.
Best bet to win the tournament: Sweden (+650)
The odds imply Sweden has a 13.5% chance of winning the World Junior Championship. I think that is well short. The Swedes have what could be the most prolific line in the tournament, an elite defender in Edvinsson, a top-tier goaltender, and a ton of depth at every position.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
