If Ovechkin catches Gretzky, credit his massive edge in OT goals

Throughout December, we’re writing stories about records, spotlighting a fresh or overlooked angle behind sports' biggest milestone chases. Read Part 1 about Steph Curry.

On Jan. 13, 2006, Alex Ovechkin received a pass on the move against the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim. At his opponent's left faceoff dot, he wired a wrister through two sets of legs - those of the backtracking defenseman and goalie J.S. Giguere - to seal a hat trick in style. This was his 30th career NHL goal and first in overtime.

On Jan. 24, 1986, Wayne Gretzky dispossessed a New Jersey Devils winger and skated with speed into the offensive zone. Down 6-4 earlier in the game, the Edmonton Oilers prevailed 7-6 on Gretzky's snipe past Craig Billington. This was his 466th NHL goal - and first in OT.

Ovechkin is 144 goals shy of Gretzky's all-time record haul. By lighting the lamp 20 times this season, the Washington Capitals captain is on track to pass Jaromir Jagr before the February Olympic break. If he continues at this pace, he'll leapfrog Gordie Howe early next season.

Pursuing Gretzky will headline the stretch run of Ovechkin's career. So, here's a subplot to think about in the meantime: when he retires, how many more goals than Gretzky will he have potted in overtime?

John McCreary, Bruce Bennett / Getty Images

The scoreline is 24-2; Ovi's league-record total dwarfs Gretzky's output in the extra frame. The fourth period existed for 16 of Gretzky's 20 NHL seasons, yet OT goals account for a minuscule 0.22% of his hallowed career sum. Ovechkin has scored twice in OT against Frederik Andersen alone.

Gretzky's peers were more productive in overtime. Mario Lemieux racked up 11 career OT goals; Mark Messier notched eight; Jari Kurri scored seven; Paul MacLean recorded six in 768 fewer games.

This aberration doesn't exactly mar the Great One's legacy. But it's shaped the record chase, morphing into a meaningful edge for Ovechkin as he gets closer to 894.

So what's going on here? Why is Ovechkin far more prolific in OT?

"I think there are probably three reasons," said Randy Gregg, a retired Oilers defenseman who played with Gretzky in the 1980s.

The first reason: despite scoring a ton, Gretzky was a pass-first player, as reflected by his record 1,963 assists. The second: Ovechkin's ice time spikes in OT - the Oilers were able to spell Gretzky by playing Messier, history's best No. 2 center. The third: when Gretzky did skate in the clutch, he tended to magnetize the opponent's attention.

"You'd have to key on the best player in the history of the game," Gregg said in a recent interview. "During the really tense times, either overtime or deep in the playoffs, Wayne would have one or two or three players on him."

Bruce Bennett / Getty Images

In 1942, at the outset of the Original Six era, the NHL nixed overtime due to reductions on wartime train travel; to head home postgame, visiting teams had to get to the station pronto. Tie games ended as such for four decades, until the president of the Quebec Nordiques, Marcel Aubut, convinced the league's board of governors in 1983 that reinstating sudden death would excite fans.

OT was back, but other quirks of the era curbed Gretzky's opportunities to score.

One was his squad's firepower, which normalized blowout wins. Between 1983-84 and 1987-88, Gretzky's Oilers won more games by four-plus goals (78) than they settled in OT (65), per Stathead. Edmonton won 17 of those OT games, lost eight, and tied 40. Since Ovechkin's NHL debut, the Capitals have played 314 OT periods, netting a winner in 92 of them.

Bruce Bennett / Getty Images

The OT format differed in Gretzky's day. Extra frames were played at five-on-five and no loser point was awarded. Valuing the point that a deadlock guaranteed, most coaches seemed content to play it safe.

"They were happy with ties after 60 minutes and they were happy with ties after 65 minutes," retired NHL goalie Andy Moog, Gretzky and Gregg's longtime Oilers teammate, told theScore recently.

"There wasn't any change in strategy. You didn't go for it to get the extra point."

OT changed to four-on-four in 1999, when the loser point was introduced. Ovechkin scored 15 goals in this configuration and has tallied nine since 2015, when skaters were capped at three-a-side. OT periods now devolve into a track meet or cat-and-mouse affair, as the team with the puck tries to maintain control until it can create a prime scoring chance.

"If you're going to have one shot on net in overtime, who would you want to have it?" Gregg said. "Alex Ovechkin comes to mind."

                    

Gretzky's overtime heroics were scarce but dramatic.

One night in 1983, Gretzky put up eight points in New Jersey and called the Devils a "Mickey Mouse organization" that was ruining the NHL. He apologized for that jab but salted the wound in the 1986 game, stripping Doug Sulliman of the puck in OT to spring himself for the game-winner.

"In my opinion, it was a hook," Billington said postgame to reporters, including United Press International's Tom Shand. "But we're the New Jersey Devils and they're the Oilers and he's Wayne Gretzky."

Bruce Bennett / Getty Images

Gretzky's other OT goal was poetic. On Oct. 15, 1989, he returned to Edmonton with the Los Angeles Kings and broke Howe's career points record. Gretzky's record-setting 1,851st point was a backhand goal that tied the score in the last minute of the third period. The game paused for him to greet Howe, hug Messier, and deliver a speech. When it resumed, he beat Bill Ranford in OT on a wraparound.

Then there was playoff Gretzky, who scored four overtime goals. His first - against the Kings in 1982 - won Edmonton the game that preceded the Miracle on Manchester. Gretzky's fourth - against the Toronto Maple Leafs in 1993 - capped a power play on which he high-sticked Doug Gilmour and got away with it.

Somehow, Ovechkin has never scored in playoff OT. That blemish aside, his resume is vast and colorful.

Rob Carr / Getty Images

His 2006 snipe against the Atlanta Thrashers, which tickled twine six seconds after puck drop in OT, completed a hat trick and tied the NHL mark for fastest OT goal. Against the Detroit Red Wings in 2017, Ovechkin's power-play blast from the left dot raised the OT goals record to 20. His 24th and most recent, a wrister off the rush last January that beat the Boston Bruins, tied him with Mike Gartner for eighth on the career goals list.

The fact Ovechkin's gaining fast on 894 is "almost inconceivable" to Gregg. The record chase is a tribute to his transcendence. At the same time, it jogs Gregg's memory of everything that made Gretzky superb, which includes his playmaking and unselfishness. Credit where it's due: Gretzky only scored twice in regular-season OT, but he doled out 15 assists.

"All you had to do was get into an opening," said Gregg, who scored once in overtime, off a Gretzky assist in 1987.

"Somehow, with his old piece of lumber - the Titan stick that was about 400 pounds, it seemed like - he could get the puck through sticks, through skates, through legs. And not just to you, but right on your tape, flat as anything."

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.

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Bowness rips Stars’ effort: Some players were ‘complete no-shows’

Dallas Stars head coach Rick Bowness was not pleased with his team's effort on Tuesday night against the St. Louis Blues.

The Blues won 4-1 despite missing several key players, including Jordan Binnington, Jordan Kyrou, David Perron, Brayden Schenn, and Robert Thomas; third-string goalie Charlie Lindgren was between the pipes.

"We had some guys that we'll have to check the video tomorrow to see if they even played," Bowness said postgame, per The Dallas Morning News' Matthew DeFranks. "I couldn’t find them out on the ice. Unless you’re going to want to show up and get your nose dirty and get involved in a game like that, then you're a complete non-factor.

"We had a few of those guys that were complete no-shows. We have no chance if we have guys that don't want to show up and play in those games."

Bowness did not call anyone out specifically by name but did hint his disappointment centered on the team's key players.

"The guys you were counting on to make a difference were the issue," he said.

Tyler Seguin ($9.85M), Jamie Benn ($9.5M), and Alexander Radulov ($6.25M) - three of the team's five highest-paid players - are underperforming this season. Benn's 13 points are the most among the trio, good for sixth on the team.

Radulov was out sick on Tuesday, and Benn was all around the net, registering six shots on 13 attempts in 18:08 of ice - nearly a minute more than his season average.

Meanwhile, Seguin played just 15:10 in the contest - his fourth-lowest total of the year and over two minutes less than his season average. He recorded one shot on two attempts in the contest. The 29-year-old has tallied just 11 points in 26 games.

The Stars have now dropped four straight following a seven-game win streak.

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Beniers, Hughes highlight Team USA’s 25-man world junior roster

Team USA has revealed its 25-man roster for the upcoming 2022 World Junior Hockey Championship in Alberta.

The roster boasts a powerful blue line that features three players - Jake Sanderson, Brock Faber, and Tyler Kleven - who helped Team USA beat Team Canada for the gold medal last tournament, as well as 2021 fourth overall pick Luke Hughes.

Six first-round picks from 2020 and 2021 will feature for the defending champs, including forwards Matty Beniers, Mackie Samoskevich, Matt Coronato, and Chaz Lucius, as well as Sanderson and Hughes.

Logan Cooley, 17, will also play for the U.S. as the youngest skater on the team. He projects to be a first-round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft.

However, not a single player on Team USA has suited up for an NHL game. Fellow contender Team Canada, by comparison, boasts a trio of skaters who've played in the NHL this season.

Here's the full roster:

*Denotes returning player

Forwards

Player Current team NHL rights
Matty Beniers* Michigan (NCAA) SEA
Brett Berard* Providence (NCAA) NYR
Logan Cooley USNTDP Juniors (USHL) 2022 eligible
Matt Coronato Harvard (NCAA) CGY
Tanner Dickinson Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) STL
Dominic James Minnesota Duluth (NCAA) 2022 eligible
Matthew Knies Minnesota (NCAA) TOR
Chaz Lucius Minnesota (NCAA) WPG
Carter Mazur Denver (NCAA) DET
Sasha Pastujov Guelph (OHL) ANA
Mackie Samoskevich Michigan (NCAA) FLA
Red Savage Miami (Ohio) (NCAA) DET
Landon Slaggert* Notre Dame (NCAA) CHI
Ty Smilanic Quinnipiac (NCAA) FLA

Defense

Player Current team NHL rights
Brock Faber* Minnesota (NCAA) LAK
Luke Hughes Michigan (NCAA) NJD
Wyatt Kaiser Minnesota Duluth (NCAA) CHI
Tyler Kleven* North Dakota (NCAA) OTT
Ian Moore Harvard (NCAA) ANA
Scott Morrow Massachusetts (NCAA) CAR
Jack Peart St. Cloud (NCAA) MIN
Jake Sanderson* North Dakota (NCAA) OTT

Goalies

Player Current team NHL rights
Drew Commesso Boston (NCAA) CHI
Kaidan Mbereko Lincoln (USHL) 2022 eligible
Dylan Silverstein USNTDP Juniors (USHL) 2022 eligible

Forwards Declan McDonnell and Dylan Peterson, defensemen Connor Kelley and Jacob Truscott, and goalie Luke Pavicich didn't make the final cuts.

Since 2013, either Canada, the United States, or Finland has claimed the gold medal. The U.S. has won it five times and medaled 13 times total.

Team USA will face Slovakia in its first preliminary matchup Dec. 26.

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Oilers’ Tippett not coaching vs. Leafs due to precautionary reasons

Edmonton Oilers head coach Dave Tippett will not be behind the bench on Tuesday against the Toronto Maple Leafs due to precautionary reasons, the team announced.

Oilers forward Ryan McLeod was one of 15 players added to COVID-19 protocol on Tuesday.

The Carolina Hurricanes-Minnesota Wild game has already been postponed. Additionally, the NHL postponed three Calgary Flames games this week.

Tippett is in his third season as coach of the Oilers. He's led the team to a 16-10-0 record.

The Oilers activated defenseman Duncan Keith off injured reserve Tuesday. He hasn't played since Nov. 23 due to an upper-body injury.

Rookie blue-liner Philip Broberg was loaned to the AHL in a corresponding move.

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Barzal, Marchand among 15 players added to COVID-19 protocol

A total of 15 players from across the NHL were placed on the league's COVID-19 protocol list Tuesday.

The Boston Bruins added forward Brad Marchand to the protocol, the team announced.

The New York Islanders announced forward Mathew Barzal also entered the protocol.

Meanwhile, the Carolina Hurricanes placed Ian Cole, Steven Lorentz, Jordan Staal, and Andrei Svechnikov in the protocol after all four tested positive. The surge in cases prompted the postponement of Tuesday night's contest against the Minnesota Wild. Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis were placed in protocol Monday.

Colorado Avalanche defenseman Devon Toews, Bruins forward Craig Smith, Florida Panthers forward Ryan Lomberg, Edmonton Oilers forward Ryan McLeod, Vancouver Canucks players Luke Schenn and Juho Lammikko, and Calgary Flames players Milan Lucic, Noah Hanifin, and Sean Monahan were all put on the list earlier Tuesday.

The Flames are seemingly in the midst of an outbreak as nine of their players have been placed in the protocol since Monday. The club last played against the Bruins on Saturday night. The NHL has so far postponed three of Calgary's games through Dec. 16.

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NHL Tuesday player props: Home cooking

We have an enormous 13-game slate on the docket tonight. Combing through all the games and finding value is a large task under normal circumstances. With COVID-19 running rampant through the NHL, there's even more to factor into the equation.

Let's get into our best bets.

Sam Bennett over 3.5 shots on goal (-115)

Sam Bennett is an absolute monster. He's averaging seven shot attempts and 4.2 shots on goal per game over the last 10 contests, and he's recorded at least three shots in nine of those games.

Bennett is also significantly more productive on home ice. He's averaging 4.3 shots at home - compared to just three on the road - and Aleksander Barkov is out again with an injury, which means more opportunities for Bennett.

Not to mention, the matchup is extremely good. The Ottawa Senators rank dead last in shot attempts against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. The same can be said on the penalty kill.

The Senators bleed shots in all situations, and Bennett is one of the game's best volume shooters. He should be able to pile up the shots in this game.

Jason Zucker over 2.5 shots on goal (+105)

Jason Zucker, like Bennett, is somebody who benefits greatly from playing at home. He's recorded at least three shots on goal in 10 of his last 12 games in Pittsburgh and amassed 38 shots (3.16 per) over that span.

He's consistently getting the job done regardless of opponent. Now, he draws one of the best matchups you could ask for against the Montreal Canadiens.

The Canadiens are paper-thin right now due to injuries, and that's really hurt their defensive play. They rank 30th in shot attempts against per 60 minutes at five-on-five over their last 10 games, while only the Philadelphia Flyers have allowed opponents to fire pucks on net at a higher rate.

This is a really good spot for Zucker to stay hot.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: Wild, Red Wings to rebound on home ice

We started the week without any hockey. The league had just one game scheduled for Monday, and, unfortunately, COVID-19 nixed the contest.

Luckily, we're going to get our fill - and then some - tonight as the NHL ramps back up with a 13-game slate.

Let's get into our best bets.

Hurricanes (+130) @ Wild (-150)

The Hurricanes are one of the NHL's better teams, but this is a tough spot for them.

They're up against an elite Wild team that owns a 10-2-0 record on home ice. Minnesota is full value for it, having controlled a whopping 58.18% of the expected goals at five-on-five. Winning would be a tough task for Carolina at the best of times, but the team is facing some pretty extreme circumstances.

This is the Hurricanes' fifth road game since last Tuesday, and they're going to be without a plethora of important players. Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, among others, aren't expected to play due to injuries and COVID-19.

The Wild are getting healthier on defense and play their best hockey at home. I like them to get back on track against this depleted Hurricanes side.

Bet: Wild in regulation (+100)

Islanders (-115) @ Red Wings (-105)

The Red Wings have gone ice cold of late, losing three consecutive games by at least three goals.

Meanwhile, the Islanders won two of three and picked up at least a point in five of their last six contests. Back those trends to continue, right? I don't think so.

New York remains lifeless offensively. The Islanders are generating just 2.15 xG per 60 at five-on-five over the last 10 games. That's a brutal number, and now they're expected to be without their best weapon in Mathew Barzal. Detroit isn't stout defensively, but it should limit New York in this game, especially with Alex Nedeljkovic between the pipes.

Nedeljkovic has stopped 4.3 goals above expectation this year. He's a clear upgrade over Thomas Greiss, who owns a minus-4.2 in that category.

I just don't see the Islanders scoring more than a couple of goals in this game. I'm happy to back the Wings on home ice - where they're 9-3-2 - at near even money.

Bet: Red Wings (-105)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Guerin named GM of 2022 U.S. Olympic team

Minnesota Wild general manager Bill Guerin was named GM of the 2022 U.S. men's Olympic hockey team, USA Hockey announced Tuesday.

New York Rangers general manager Chris Drury was tabbed as assistant GM.

Ex-Chicago Blackhawks executive Stan Bowman was originally chosen to be GM with Guerin serving as an assistant, but Bowman resigned in October amid the Blackhawks' sexual assault scandal.

Guerin said 55 NHL players are being considered for the team, according to ESPN's Greg Wyshynski. Guerin added that he's been in touch with Jack Eichel's agent about the center's availability and won't rule him out.

It remains unclear if NHL players will go to Beijing in February due to a rise in COVID-19 cases in the league and around the world. Commissioner Gary Bettman said last week that the decision will ultimately rest in the players' hands.

It's been reported that players could face quarantine periods of three-to-five weeks if they test positive while in China, which has increased the uncertainty surrounding NHL participation.

Guerin has served as Wild general manager since 2019. He won consecutive Stanley Cups as an assistant GM with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016 and 2017.

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Contenders or pretenders? Analyzing 6 polarizing Stanley Cup hopefuls

With the NHL's regular season roughly one-third complete, it's as good a time as any to try and separate the contenders from the pretenders.

We avoided teams widely viewed as Stanley Cup favorites - the Tampa Bay Lightning, Carolina Hurricanes, and Colorado Avalanche - and are instead focusing on six clubs that appear to be causing a divide among fans and analysts.

All six have tantalizing strengths but also question marks that could ultimately be their undoing.

New York Rangers

Record: 18-6-3 (.722 PTS%)
Standing: Tied for 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Jared Silber / National Hockey League / Getty

Josh Wegman: Pretender. There's a lot to like about the Rangers. Adam Fox is challenging for another Norris Trophy, Artemi Panarin is lighting up the scoresheet, and Igor Shesterkin has been sensational between the pipes.

However, the Rangers rely on their netminder too much at times. The club ranks 25th in five-on-five expected goals for percentage, which suggests it's bound to come down to earth a bit.

It's also important to remember that the Rangers employ the league's fourth-youngest roster. Players like Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere, K'Andre Miller, and Nils Lundkvist still need time to grow. Come playoff time, I can't trust this team against veteran-laden Metro clubs like the Hurricanes, Washington Capitals, and Pittsburgh Penguins.

John Matisz: Pretender. Plain and simple, the Rangers remain under construction.

Gerard Gallant, who's in his first season behind the Rangers' bench, continues to put his stamp on the team with respect to systems and deployment. Lafreniere and Kakko haven't progressed at the rate commensurate with top-two picks, and it's gumming up the forward group. Backup goalie Alexandar Georgiev hasn't been good enough in 11 appearances. Overall, there's isn't enough reliability throughout the lineup.

That said, how many NHL clubs would kill to have a one-two-three punch of Panarin, Fox, and Shesterkin? Nothing's wrong with this core, which also includes the likes of Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, and Jacob Trouba.

Check back in a calendar year and the Rangers will probably be in the East's contenders tier.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 19-8-2 (.690)
Standing: Tied for 1st in Atlantic Division

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Wegman: Pretender. The Maple Leafs' "Core 4" forwards are firing on all cylinders and the team is getting Vezina Trophy-caliber goaltending from Jack Campbell. That seems like a recipe for success, right?

However, the defense presents a major cause for concern. Jake Muzzin appears to have lost half a step in his age-32 season. His shutdown-pairing partner going into the season, Justin Holl, has fallen off to the point where he's borderline unplayable. Adding a solid top-four defenseman at the trade deadline would fix their one major hole, but it wouldn't be easy given Toronto's tight salary-cap situation.

Additionally, the Maple Leafs haven't fixed one glaring area of play that haunted them in their past two playoff exits: turnovers. Toronto leads the league in both total giveaways and giveaways per 60 minutes. If the club can't clean up its act, it'll be lucky to get out of Round 1.

Matisz: Contender.

Yes, Toronto has failed to win a playoff series in 17 years. That is an indisputable fact. Yes, the Leafs need to acquire a high-quality defenseman to solidify its blue line ahead of the playoffs. Another indisputable fact.

Otherwise ... what else could you ask for so far in 2021-22?

Led by super sniper Auston Matthews and a resurgent John Tavares, the attack is as deadly as in years past. Head coach Sheldon Keefe is running a tight ship defensively for a second straight season. Campbell has been given a heavy workload and is proving (.935 save percentage) to be a trustworthy No.1 goalie.

Postseason choke jobs have made the Leafs nearly impossible to trust. I get it. Yet, nothing from their first 29 games qualifies as gravely concerning, and that, to me, is more useful intel than what's occurred in the past. (Plus, general manager Kyle Dubas is all-in here. He will add pieces at the deadline.)

Toronto's core is far too talented to not break through at some point, and I'm willing to bet this is the year the Leafs, at the very least, win a playoff round.

Anaheim Ducks

Record: 16-9-5 (.617)
Standing: 1st in Pacific Division

Bill Wippert / National Hockey League / Getty

Matisz: Pretender.

While I certainly didn't think the Ducks would be in a playoff spot at this point in the season, let alone first in their division, it feels as if the wheels are going to fall off sometime between now and Game No. 82.

Leading goal-scorer Troy Terry is shooting an unsustainable 24.6%. Goalie John Gibson has been peppered with shots and won't be able to hold the fort forever. Calder Trophy hopeful Trevor Zegras, as awesome as he is to watch, is still learning the ropes as a No. 1 center in the NHL.

Anaheim has plenty of emerging talent and the organization should absolutely be excited about what the future holds. This year is more of a prelude.

Wegman: Pretender. The Ducks are a great story, but it's premature to include them among the league's contenders. The young core of Zegras, Terry, Jamie Drysdale, and Isac Lundestrom is exciting, but these players lack the experience to have Anaheim competing for a Stanley Cup. Terry, in particular, is already coming down to earth after his hot start. Plus, the team's underlying numbers aren't encouraging, as it ranks 18th in expected goals percentage.

The veteran contingent of Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, Gibson, and others are all enjoying strong seasons, but unless Gibson goes full-on 2003 Jean-Sebastien Giguere, I can't see this squad making any noise.

Edmonton Oilers

Record: 16-10-0 (.615)
Standing: 3rd in Pacific Division

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Matisz: Pretender. New year, same story for the Oilers.

Despite offseason additions to the bottom of the forward group, Edmonton is still struggling to generate offense when Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are off the ice. Meanwhile, the defense corps is thin, and the three-headed monster in net (Mike Smith, Mikko Koskinen, Stuart Skinner) is far from scary.

It's tempting to ignore the club's warts and blindly trust that the brilliance of McDavid and Draisaitl - the sport's best duo since Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr - will prevail. Their ability to change the course of a game is enormous at even strength and especially on the power play.

But I just can't bring myself to that point. The Oilers will face teams with significantly more depth in the postseason, and it's impossible for McDavid and Draisaitl to play more than half of the game.

Wegman: Pretender. McDavid and Draisaitl may not be from this planet, but hockey is a team game, and the Oilers have too many other holes for me to give them a real shot.

The blue line is suspect - especially when it comes to actual defending. Darnell Nurse is a workhorse, but the unit after him is filled with question marks.

The goaltending situation is even more problematic. Smith has been hurt for most of the season, and even if the 39-year-old returns, he can't be relied upon. Koskinen has been a roller coaster in Smith's absence, and Skinner is far too inexperienced.

This team isn't just one trade from magically being fixed, either.

Minnesota Wild

Record: 19-8-1 (.696)
Standing: 1st in Central Division

Bruce Kluckhohn / National Hockey League / Getty

Wegman: Contender. The Wild don't get a lot of national attention as a small-market club lacking star power outside of Kirill Kaprizov, but they're legit. And while getting an offensive game-breaker like Kaprizov has changed the team's complexion, there are so many other reasons to believe in Minnesota.

Jared Spurgeon, Matt Dumba, and Jonas Brodin anchor one of the league's best blue lines. Brodin, in particular, has always been elite defensively, but his offensive game has really come together this year. Up front, the line of Marcus Foligno, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Jordan Greenway brings so much size, speed, and physicality that it's an absolute nightmare to play against. In goal, Cam Talbot is as solid as they come.

Adding one more forward, ideally a center (Tomas Hertl, anyone?), would really push the Wild over the top, but even as currently constructed, they could go all the way.

Matisz: Contender. The '21-22 Wild are a well-oiled machine.

Sneakily third in the league in goals per game, Minnesota already boasts 15 players with at least 10 points on the season. The top line of Ryan Hartman (32 points) between Kaprizov (23) and Mats Zuccarello (22) is a perfect complement to the all-around trio centered by Eriksson Ek. The bottom-six group, headlined by Kevin Fiala and Victor Rask, is above average, as well.

As for coaching, defense, and goaltending, well, there are no significant issues to report. General manager Bill Guerin doesn't have to make a big splash ahead of the deadline, though he'll be motivated to do something, with the Ryan Suter/Zach Parise buyout penalties kicking into high gear next season.

Minnesota has a marvelous opportunity here to go on a long playoff run.

Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 16-11-0 (.593)
Standing: 2nd wild card in Western Conference

Ethan Miller / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Matisz: Pretender.

The Golden Knights are one of those teams you'd love to believe in wholeheartedly. From Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty to Robin Lehner and Shea Theodore, the roster is full of likable, star-level players. This roster is mature and deep because the front office is obsessed with winning a Cup.

However, before getting carried away, you catch yourself going, "Yeah, but ..."

Exhibit A: the Jack Eichel situation. Yeah, the 25-year-old star center is coming back sometime in early 2022, but who knows how effective he'll be in trying to hop on a moving train while adjusting to a new playing environment and linemates. Yeah, he's worth getting excited about, generally speaking, but which player(s) will be subtracted from the lineup to make room for his salary?

Exhibit B: special teams. Yeah, they've got weapons, but where are the results? Vegas' power play ranks 28th and its penalty kill is tied for 22nd. Is special teams a serious issue or just the byproduct of injuries to key players?

If uncertainty's a theme with a squad in October, whatever. But we're in mid-December and the Golden Knights still aren't playing to their full potential. If Eichel's transition doesn't go smoothly, perhaps Vegas becomes a team primed to contend in '22-23, not '21-22.

Wegman: Contender. The Golden Knights' track record of playoff success in their short history is astounding. In their first four seasons, they advanced to at least the conference finals three times. A lack of goal-scoring has ultimately been their kryptonite the past two years, but now they'll have Eichel.

It's true, Eichel will have been out of action for nearly a year, but I think he'll have more than enough time to find his groove before the postseason. Seemingly every Cup winner ever has rostered a bona fide first-line center, and when Eichel is going, that's exactly what he is. With a stellar supporting cast, he can push this group over the top.

The Golden Knights may need to get creative in order to accommodate Eichel's cap hit once he's activated off LTIR, but winger Evgenii Dadonov is expendable, shouldn't be difficult to move, and will likely be enough to get Vegas cap compliant.

(Advanced statistics source: Natural Stat Trick)

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