NHL Tuesday best bets: Expect goaltending duel in Tampa

We have an unusually quiet three-game slate on the docket for tonight. Still, there is value to be had.

We'll comb through it with our best bets.

Flyers (+145) @ Lightning (-165)

The Flyers spoiled our under in the dying seconds the last time these teams met, but we're going right back to the well today.

Philadelphia's offense is trending downward in a hurry. They rank dead last in five-on-five scoring efficiency over the last 10 games and it's not hard to see why. They're not generating many quality looks, ranking 29th in high-danger chances per 60 during that time.

This isn't exactly the best spot to get on track. The Lightning are extremely stout defensively. Tampa Bay ranks third in shot attempts against and fourth in high-danger chances against per 60 on the year.

I don't see the Lightning giving up much, and without Nikita Kucherov and now Brayden Point, their offense isn't exactly scary. Tampa Bay ranks 22nd in expected goals per 60 at five-on-five and 26th on the man advantage. They're much more competent defensively.

Carter Hart (12.1 goals saved above expected) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (5.1) should be able to limit the damage and keep this a low-scoring affair.

Bet: Under 5.5 (-110)

Shot props

The under in Tampa Bay is the only total or side I like. Thankfully, shot props exist. There's almost always value to be had with those and tonight is no exception.

We're going to stick with Flyers-Lightning and back defenseman Victor Hedman to record over 2.5 shots.

Hedman leads the Lightning in shot attempts and shots on goal this season. With Kucherov and Point out of the lineup, he'll be relied upon even more to create offense.

He plays a lot of minutes in all situations and recorded eight shot attempts against the Flyers in their previous meeting. I expect him to be heavily involved again in this one.

Bet: Hedman over 2.5 shots (-115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Smith laments Sens’ late mistakes after losing in return from layoff

Despite the fact that the odds were certainly not in the Ottawa Senators' favor, head coach D.J. Smith wasn't looking for excuses following his team's 7-5 loss to the Colorado Avalanche on Monday night.

"A lot of good battle, a lot of really poor decisions with the game on the line," Smith said postgame. "It's an unacceptable loss ... We give up the game-winning goal with 1:33 to go and that's 100% on us."

The Senators mostly held their own during a back-and-forth affair in Denver against an Avalanche team that had won four straight heading into the contest. Ottawa forward Zach Sanford recorded a hat trick, but it wasn't enough to overcome errors the team made in the final period.

Avalanche star Mikko Rantanen scored on the power play shortly after the Senators fanned on a clearing attempt to tie the game, while Alex Newhook delivered the final dagger thanks to a turnover.

On top of that, Senators defenseman Josh Brown exited during the first period with an upper-body injury.

"We did a lot of great things. We worked hard playing with five D for the majority of the game after coming off from the amount of time we had off, but we're going to hold ourselves to a higher standard," Smith said. "We've got to find ways to win games. ... Made two major mistakes in the third period and you lose the hockey game."

The Senators were just returning from a week-long layoff following a COVID-19 outbreak, during which 10 players and associate coach Jack Capuano landed on the NHL's protocol list.

The league decided on Nov. 15 to postpone three of the Senators' games to help control the outbreak. Prior to Monday's contest, the Sens last suited up for a game Nov. 14, an ugly 4-0 loss to the Calgary Flames.

Ottawa's next chance will come Wednesday against the San Jose Sharks. The Senators are currently in the league's basement with a 4-11-1 record.

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Vezina Trophy odds update: Campbell, Markstrom among biggest risers

It feels like hockey just returned, and yet we're already around 20% through the 2021-22 NHL season.

As such, we're starting to see players separate themselves from the pack - in good ways and bad.

We're going to highlight a few today as we dive deeper into the Vezina Trophy market.

PLAYER ODDS (Nov. 22) ODDS (Oct. 11)
Andrei Vasilevskiy +500 +380
Igor Shesterkin +750 +2100
Frederik Andersen +750 +1800
Jacob Markstrom +1000 +4000
Sergei Bobrovsky +1000 +3300
Jack Campbell +1200 +2400
Connor Hellebuyck +1400 +900
Ilya Sorokin +1400 +2500
Robin Lehner +1600 +1600
Juuse Saros +1800 +2400
Jordan Binnington +1800 +2300
Darcy Kuemper +2000 +1000
Semyon Varlamov +2000 +1700
Marc-Andre Fleury +2000 +1000
Carter Hart +2200 +3200
Thatcher Demko +2500 +1700
Elvis Merzlikins +2500 +4000
John Gibson +3000 +3500
Cam Talbot +3000 +3200
Philipp Grubauer +3000 +1500
Cal Petersen +3000 +3800
Alex Nedeljkovic +3000 +2400
Carey Price +3000 +1400
Anton Khudobin +3500 +3300
Chris Driedger +3500 +2500
Vitek Vanecek +3500 +6000
Spencer Knight +4000 +2200
Linus Ullmark +4000 +3400
Petr Mrazek +4000 +1800
Mike Smith +4000 +7500
Tristan Jarry +5000 +6300
Tuukka Rask +5000 N/A
Mackenzie Blackwood +5000 +4000

*Only listing players with odds 50-1 or shorter

Trending up

Igor Shesterkin (+750)

The New York Rangers haven't played great hockey, especially in their own zone. They rank 29th in expected goals against and 30th in scoring chances against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Despite their terrible defensive play, they own an 11-4-3 record and sit sixth in points percentage, and Shesterkin is the biggest reason why. He owns a sparkling .931 save percentage and sits sixth in the NHL having stopped 11.4 goals above expectation.

Frederik Andersen (+750)

Andersen's been the MVP for a team that owns the league's best record at 14-2-0. He's posted a ridiculous .937 save percentage while appearing in 13 of 16 games for the Carolina Hurricanes. Only two goaltenders rank above Andersen in goals saved above expectation and GSAE per start. Though the Hurricanes are obviously a strong team, it's not as if life has been easy for Andersen. Carolina ranks 30th in expected goals against per 60 minutes. He's faced one of the more difficult workloads among goaltenders and still managed to dominate.

Jacob Markstrom (+1000)

The Calgary Flames surprisingly sit third in the NHL in points and fourth in points percentage. A lot of players have picked it up in Darryl Sutter's first full season as Calgary's head coach - perhaps none more so than Markstrom. He posted a highly mediocre .904 save percentage a season ago but has rebounded in a huge way. He ranks second in the league with a .942 save percentage and has helped the Flames pick up at least a point in 11 of his 14 starts.

Jack Campbell (+1200)

Campbell was nothing short of spectacular for the Toronto Maple Leafs a season ago, and yet he's found a way to take things up a couple of notches. In his first year as the team's undisputed starter, Campbell's posted a league-leading .944 save percentage and saved more goals above expectation than everyone but Sergei Bobrovsky.

Trending down

Philipp Grubauer (+3000)

There likely isn't a bigger disappointment in the league than Grubauer. He was a finalist for the Vezina just a year ago and converted that into a lucrative contract to be a stabilizer for the Seattle Kraken in their inaugural season. He's been anything but stable, though. Grubauer has won only a third of his starts and allowed 14.5 more goals than expected, and he owns a woeful .882 save percentage. No other netminder with at least 10 starts has conceded more than four goals above expectation; Grubauer is in a league of his own in the basement of the NHL.

Spencer Knight (+4000)

Knight entered the year with a realistic shot at claiming the starting job for the Florida Panthers. He hasn't come close to stealing it from Bobrovsky, and it's not just because the latter has played lights-out. Knight has really struggled to date, posting a pedestrian .904 save percentage for a Panthers team that finds itself atop the league in points.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Canadiens’ Caufield: AHL stint was ‘really good for me’

Montreal Canadiens sniper Cole Caufield is feeling appreciative of his two-week stint with the team's AHL affiliate.

"It was all about just going down there, kinda refreshing my mind, get my game back, and getting my confidence back," Caufield said in a media scrum, according to TSN. "I feel as though it was really good for me to go down there and find myself as a player and relax and get out of the noise a little bit."

Montreal assigned Caufield to the Laval Rocket on Nov. 1 amid his slow start to the year. He registered just one assist in 10 contests to kick off the 2021-22 campaign, which was a far cry from the 12 points he put up in 20 playoff games during the Canadiens' mystical run to the Stanley Cup Final last season.

Caufield appeared to rediscover his groove in the AHL, scoring two goals and three assists in six games. Montreal recalled him on Nov. 18, which Caufield said was exciting.

"It felt like the first time again. I had a lot of energy those first couple games, and I’m just going to look forward to keeping that going."

Caufield hasn't yet gotten on the scoresheet through two contests since returning to the big club. The 20-year-old said the Habs' message to him was to just be himself.

"For me, personally, I like where my game's at right now. I'm just gonna keep trying to get better," he added.

The Canadiens have struggled throughout the first month of the campaign, stumbling to a 5-13-2 record.

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NHL Monday best bets: Jets to take flight

We're heading for a busy Monday night on the ice, with six games scheduled to open the week.

Let's get into our best bets.

Blue Jackets (-125) @ Sabres (+105)

The Blue Jackets have been a surprisingly good team in the early going. They own a solid 9-6-0 record and are full value for their success, especially of late.

Columbus has won six of its last 10, controlling 54.15% of the expected goals at five-on-five in that span. That's the sixth-highest output in the NHL, slotting them just ahead of clubs like the Wild and Panthers. Good company!

Things haven't gone as swimmingly for the Sabres. Buffalo's won just two of its last 10 contests, posting a 43.26 xGF% in that time - only the lowly Blackhawks have fared worse.

The Sabres are getting significantly outplayed on a nightly basis without the shooting talent to out-score their problems, and their goaltending isn't strong enough to keep them around in games they don't belong in.

I expect the Blue Jackets to take advantage of this fatigued Buffalo team - this is the side's third game in four nights - and get back on track with a win.

Bet: Blue Jackets (-125)

Penguins (+100) @ Jets (-120)

For years, the Jets have been a mediocre five-on-five team that's won games on the back of high-end shooting and high-end goaltending. It has served Winnipeg well in the regular season but has led to little success in the playoffs when facing other top clubs they can't just beat on talent.

This Jets squad is much different than those of the past. They're good - very good, even - at full-strength, and that has made Winnipeg a much more complete team capable of hanging with the best.

And it's leading to strong results. The Jets have picked up at least a point in eight of their last 10 games and controlled a league-leading 57.36% of the expected goals in that time.

With Kyle Connor, Nik Ehlers, Mark Scheifele, and a resurgent Pierre-Luc Dubois up front headlining the team, we know Winnipeg has the firepower to convert at a high rate over time - but the club's generating so much offense that they don't even need to be opportunistic.

The Jets, believe it or not, are 29th in shooting percentage during this strong run of results, but they rank second in attempts and high-danger chances per 60, so it hasn't even mattered.

If Winnipeg can sustain anywhere close to this level of play, the unit's going to feel unbeatable when its top shooters reach their full potential.

While the Penguins are very strong, especially defensively, they're not playing as well as the Jets at five-on-five. Pittsburgh doesn't have a goaltender close to Connor Hellebuyck's caliber, either, so Winnipeg has the edge in goal. Oh, and the Jets are at home - where they own a 7-1-1 record on the year.

Back Winnipeg to snap out of this mini losing streak and take care of business on home ice.

Bet: Jets (-120)

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NHL Power Rankings: Each team’s biggest cause for concern

This is the fourth edition of theScore's NHL Power Rankings for the 2020-21 season. Check back for updated rankings every second Monday during the regular season.

In this edition, we examine each team's biggest cause for concern so far this season.

1. Carolina Hurricanes (14-2-0)

Previous rank: 2

Things are going nearly perfectly for the Hurricanes, who pace the NHL in points while sitting top 10 in all the important categories. Any complaint about Carolina's start is nitpicking - but pricey offer sheet target Jesperi Kotkaniemi only has four points through 16 games.

2. Florida Panthers (13-2-3)

Previous rank: 1

There's not much to complain about for Panthers fans. The team currently leads the Atlantic Division, and though captain Aleksander Barkov is on the sidelines, his injury isn't as serious as it could have been. Perhaps the most concerning trend for Florida is an expected goals for rate (53.6%) that's significantly lower than its actual goals for rate (65.3%) at five-on-five.

3. Washington Capitals (11-3-5)

Previous rank: 15

The Capitals can't seem to find a win beyond regulation. They haven't even participated in a shootout yet this season since their opponents always burn them in overtime; Washington has five OT losses already.

4. Edmonton Oilers (13-4-0)

Previous rank: 3

It's no secret the Oilers dominate on the power play, scoring at a bonkers 39.6% clip. But they've given up the seventh-most goals (39) in the league at five-on-five, toiling in the basement in that regard alongside the likes of the Seattle Kraken, Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, and Montreal Canadiens.

5. Toronto Maple Leafs (13-6-1)

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Previous rank: 11

Goaltender Jack Campbell has had a heavy workload early in the season, appearing in 16 of the Maple Leafs' 20 games. Toronto acquired Petr Mrazek during the summer in hopes of finally having a formidable tandem between the pipes, but the oft-injured goalie has made just two starts this season. If he can't stay healthy, Campbell could run out of gas quickly.

6. Calgary Flames (11-3-5)

Previous rank: 4

With 15 goals and two assists in 19 games, Andrew Mangiapane deserves to be celebrated amid his unbelievable start to the season. But the concern for the Flames is the 25-year-old's equally unbelievable 31.3 shooting percentage. Sustaining such a rate over the course of the campaign seems highly unlikely.

7. Tampa Bay Lightning (10-4-3)

Previous rank: 8

The Lightning could be without injured stars Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point for the foreseeable future. The club has predictably been one of the league's top teams early in the season, but things have the potential to go downhill fast if injuries keep piling up.

8. New York Rangers (11-4-3)

Previous rank: 14

Goaltender Igor Shesterkin has bailed the Rangers out quite frequently this season, and they'd likely be in a far worse position without him manning the crease. New York has given up the third-most scoring chances against (462) and sixth-most high-danger scoring chances against (168) at five-on-five this season.

9. Boston Bruins (9-6-0)

Previous rank: 13

Linus Ullmark hasn't lived up to the four-year, $20-million contract he signed this past summer. Replacing Tuukka Rask was never going to be easy, but a .908 save percentage won't cut it for a Bruins team with Stanley Cup aspirations.

10. Anaheim Ducks (10-5-3)

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It's hard to point out anything worrisome about a team playing far above expectations and enjoying success for the first time in years. The only alarming thing so far is that some haven't accepted the Ducks might be for real.

Previous rank: 23

11. Minnesota Wild (11-6-1)

Previous rank: 7

The Wild have been known for their strong defensive game over the years, but the club seems to be struggling in that regard this season. Minnesota has allowed four goals or more in nine of 18 games.

12. Winnipeg Jets (9-4-4)

Previous rank: 9

Two combined goals from franchise cornerstones Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele is as surprising as it is concerning for the Jets. Both players need to start finding the back of the net.

13. Colorado Avalanche (8-5-1)

Previous rank: 20

Casualties continue to mount for the Avalanche, who recently added Bowen Byram and J.T. Compher to their seemingly never-ending injury list. Colorado has proved its mettle during a four-game win https://cmsadmin.thescore.com/admin/newsroom/#/articles/2200477streak, but icing a shorthanded roster night in and night out takes its toll.

14. St. Louis Blues (9-6-2)

Previous rank: 5

Brandon Saad was one of the Blues' top offseason additions, but his underlying numbers don't look great so far. He has the fourth-worst Corsi For rating among forwards at five-on-five (48.77) and the second-worst expected goals for percentage (39.71).

15. Vegas Golden Knights (11-7-0)

David Becker / National Hockey League / Getty

Previous rank: 17

The Golden Knights are missing some incredibly talented personnel, but a 12.2% power-play conversion rate is horrendous for any NHL unit.

16. Philadelphia Flyers (8-5-3)

Previous rank: 6

The Flyers tried to revamp their defense during the offseason and made a big splash by bringing in Ryan Ellis. But he's only appeared in four games this season, and the nagging injury that's kept him sidelined for longer than anticipated could remain an issue throughout the year.

17. New Jersey Devils (8-5-3)

Previous rank: 18

The Devils are proving to be a scrappy bunch this season, but those leaked alternate jerseys are a major cause for concern.

18. Pittsburgh Penguins (7-6-4)

Previous rank: 19

The Penguins' season has been fraught with injuries and COVID-19 concerns. But with dominant shutouts in its past two contests, things look to be back on track for Pittsburgh. Now the team just has to hope everybody can stay on the ice.

19. Los Angeles Kings (8-7-3)

Previous rank: 24

The Kings must tighten up on special teams to make a charge up the standings this season. Despite a solid start, Los Angeles ranks bottom 10 in both power-play (15.9%) and penalty-kill (77.8%) efficiency.

20. Nashville Predators (9-7-1)

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Previous rank: 21

The Predators aren't generating many quality opportunities, ranking 31st in the league with 115 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five.

21. Columbus Blue Jackets (9-6-0)

Previous rank: 12

The Blue Jackets routinely give up too much in the defensive zone, surrendering the fourth-most shots against per game (33.9) while ranking 24th in even-strength shot attempts per 60 minutes (58.4).

22. New York Islanders (5-8-2)

Previous rank: 10

The Islanders have struggled to score and own the NHL's third-lowest shot total in all situations (449). The result is a minus-15 goal differential. Riding a six-game losing streak, New York needs to figure things out quickly.

23. Dallas Stars (7-7-2)

Previous rank: 27

The Stars can't seem to find reliable goal-scorers this season. Tyler Seguin and Roope Hintz lead the team with a modest five tallies apiece.

24. Buffalo Sabres (7-8-2)

Previous rank: 22

The Sabres have lost eight of their last 10 games after their hot start to the year. Buffalo looks to have come back down to earth, which means the team's faithful should be concerned about the rest of the season.

25. Detroit Red Wings (8-9-3)

Steve Babineau / National Hockey League / Getty

Previous rank: 25

The Red Wings are getting outstanding results from their top players and young guns. Having to choose between Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider in the Calder Trophy race should have some voters concerned already.

26. San Jose Sharks (8-8-1)

Previous rank: 16

Evander Kane is set to finish serving his suspension at the end of November, so the Sharks must soon address his future with the team. It remains unclear if he'll return to San Jose, but he has three years left on his contract.

27. Chicago Blackhawks (6-10-2)

Previous rank: 31

No one expected Jonathan Toews to light the league on fire after missing all of last season for medical reasons, but the Blackhawks captain is goalless through 18 games. The once-dominant two-way force is also a minus-7 on the year.

28. Montreal Canadiens (5-13-2)

Previous rank: 30

Cole Caufield looked like he regained some confidence during his six-game AHL stint, but did the Canadiens call him back up too quickly? In what's looking like a lost season, the club should prioritize his development; Montreal can't afford to squander yet another blue-chip prospect.

29. Ottawa Senators (4-10-1)

Previous rank: 29

How long will it take the Senators to shake off the rust following their COVID-19 layoff? Ottawa dug itself an early hole with poor results to start the season and now faces an even steeper climb due to circumstances beyond its control.

30. Vancouver Canucks (6-11-2)

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Previous rank: 26

Other than netminder Thatcher Demko, everything about the Canucks is cause for concern at this point. Vancouver is the not-so-proud owner of the worst penalty kill in the league, stumbling along at a 62.3% success rate.

31. Seattle Kraken (5-12-1)

Previous rank: 28

Philipp Grubauer has to be better. There's not much the Kraken can do when their No. 1 option in the crease has an .882 save percentage, a league-worst minus-11.3 goals saved above average, and minus-14.3 goals saved above expected at all strengths through 15 appearances.

32. Arizona Coyotes (4-13-2)

Previous rank: 32

There were virtually no expectations for success this season, but the Coyotes sorely lack an entertainment factor. There are solid hockey fans in Arizona, and they deserve something better than this team. Not even Jakob Chychrun is providing much pop, posting five points in 19 games.

(Analytics sources: Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick)

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