As a byproduct of realignment, there was no Metro Division in the NHL last season.
The Washington Capitals look to pick up where they left off a year prior and extend their streak to six consecutive Metro titles.
Three teams have shorter odds than the Capitals to claim the division title ahead of the 2021-22 season. Is there value in backing a changing of the guard?
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| New York Islanders | +350 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +400 |
| New York Rangers | +400 |
| Washington Capitals | +450 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +500 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +550 |
| New Jersey Devils | +1800 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +15000 |
The favorites
Unlike the other three divisions, there's no clear-cut favorite atop the Metro. The implied odds suggest six different teams have at least a 15% chance of winning the division.
Most heavily favored are the Islanders (+350), who made it to the Final Four just last season. Their roster isn't littered with flashy stars, but they have more than enough offense to get by given the impeccable defensive structure implemented by coach Barry Trotz. They're positioned well in goal, too, with Semyon Varlamov and super sophomore Ilya Sorokin manning the crease on a nightly basis. They're a safe bet to flirt with a point total in the high 90s and a division title.
Next in line are the Hurricanes (+400). They look extremely potent up front, though there are some red flags. Dougie Hamilton, arguably the best play-driving defenseman in the NHL, is a huge loss on the back end. Ethan Bear and Tony DeAngelo, while useful players, are unlikely to make up for the value departing.
I also have some concerns about the Hurricanes in goal. They finished second in team save percentage at five-on-five last season, yet are returning zero of the three goaltenders they used. Instead, they're going with free-agent signings Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta. The former ranks 71st in goals saved above expectation over the last two seasons and has dealt with some injury concerns; Raanta has played only 12 games in two of the last three years due to a laundry list of injuries. Not ideal.
The Rangers (+400) are overvalued in the betting market, as we addressed last week. They had fairly good health a year ago yet couldn't make the playoffs. Now with first-line winger Pavel Buchnevich gone, and nothing but grit and intangibles added to the roster, they're implied to have only a 37% chance of missing the playoffs in a tough division? I'm not buying that for a second.
Washington (+450) is a solid but flawed team. They have star power up front and a consistently strong power play, but goaltending is a concern. Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek both allowed at least six more goals than expected last season. If they take a step forward, which is possible given their youth, the Capitals could win the division. They'll fall short otherwise.
Backing Pittsburgh (+500) to win the division seems difficult to stomach. They've routinely been in the mix despite waves of injuries. With better health, it's easy to see value in the Penguins. But better health simply doesn't appear to be in the cards. The season hasn't even started yet and both Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby are on the shelf.
Philadelphia (+550) should be more competitive. They have a deep group up front, Carter Hart couldn't play worse than a season ago, and the addition of Ryan Ellis makes the top pairing a whole lot better. But there could be some self-inflicted damage holding the team back. Rasmus Ristolainen is destined to be significantly overused in a top-four role. Meanwhile, Martin Jones, who has posted a sub-.900 save percentage three years in a row, hardly seems like an ideal safety net behind Hart. Those two players, in particular, could offset a lot of the good the rest of the roster does.
Best value: New Jersey Devils (+1800)
This will be no surprise to those who saw my best bets to make the playoffs, but the Devils fit the bill here. Are they likely to win the division? Of course not, but their chances are better than their implied odds of 5.3% suggest.
Their forward core figures to be quite potent. Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Yegor Sharangovich, and Jesper Bratt are all very good young players poised to take the next step, while the addition of Tomas Tatar gives them some quality veteran support in the top six.
New Jersey's defense is in much better shape as well. Hamilton is a true No. 1 capable of playing big minutes and producing against anybody. Ryan Graves also provides some much-needed stability in the top four and penalty kill. Those additions help the likes of Damon Severson, Ty Smith, and P.K. Subban slot into more appropriate roles.
In goal, Mackenzie Blackwood is a solid bounce-back candidate, especially with the improvements defensively, and Jonathan Bernier is a strong platoon partner.
Top to bottom, this team is much improved. If the kids are ready for prime time, the Devils will be much better than most expect.
Best bet: Washington Capitals (+450)
I'd like to back the Islanders, who appear to be the least flawed team in the division, but we bet numbers, not teams - and there's more value on Washington.
Led by Alexander Ovechkin, the offense is always potent. We can bank on that and what should once again be a strong power play.
The team's defense was also surprisingly stingy in Peter Laviolette's debut season as Washington's coach. The Capitals ranked seventh in expected goals against at five-on-five, slotting them just behind the powerhouse Tampa Bay Lightning. That's why the Capitals were just a point shy from an East Division title last year despite subpar goaltending.
If either Samsonov or Vanecek can take a step forward, the Capitals have a real chance at winning the Metro. I'm happy to take a stab at +450.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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