We took home a bit of money over the weekend, but the margins were small as we moved to 81-69 (+11.69 units) on the season.
I've got four plays going Monday night. Here are words on two of them:
Bruins (-115) @ Penguins (-105)
This feels like a very important game for the Bruins. A 4-6-2 run has seen them drop to fourth place in the East Division, a distant 10 points back of first. They have games in hand on all the teams around them, but those are meaningless if they don't result in wins.
Boston was embarrassed by the Rangers in a 4-0 loss Saturday, going 0-for-5 on the power play and generating only 0.37 expected goals at five-on-five - by far its worst mark of the season. However, the Bruins have responded well following poor outings this year. Their previous two lows in xGF% were 35.18% and 34.16%, in losses against the Rangers and Capitals, respectively. They responded to those with marks of 62.95% and 53.72%, both in winning efforts.
I expect similar here, against a Penguins team due for some regression. They've been a below-average xGF% team at five-on-five, and have been especially underwhelming in this regard over the past few weeks, excluding their two games against the Sabres. The 10-3 run they're currently on does not reflect that, so we can sell high here on Pittsburgh.
Pick: Bruins (-115)
Flyers (-120) @ Rangers (+100)
This line's moving quickly in the Flyers' direction, meaning there's a good chance you can hold out for +110 or better on the Rangers. The reasoning behind the movement: Keith Kinkaid is getting the start for New York. But are we sure this is such a bad thing? With Igor Shesterkin still injured, the alternative for the Rangers was Alexandar Georgiev, who's struggled of late. He's posted a miserable minus-6.80 GSAx across his last three starts, and sits 62nd out of 71 goalies in GSAA on the season. Kinkaid's hardly a world-beater, but he's been solid when called upon, and he shut the Bruins out Saturday.
The Flyers respond with Carter Hart, who's having an atrocious season. Hart's posted a minus GSAx in each of his last four appearances, and seven of his last nine. He ranks 67th in GSAA and 69th in GSAx on the year, and is showing no signs of rediscovering his 2019-20 form or recapturing the confidence he needs to perform at a high level.
In addition, the Flyers have struggled in front of him. They've controlled a greater portion of the expected goal share at five-on-five in only five of their last 14 games - three of those were against the Sabres. The Rangers have been excellent in this regard, owning a 54.68% share - sixth in the NHL - over their last 12 games, despite Artemi Panarin playing in three of them. The Bread Man returned to the lineup on the weekend against Boston, in time for the Rangers to control 81.32% (!) of the expected goal share at five-on-five. They're great value on home ice here, especially if they move closer to +110, as suspected.
Pick: Rangers (+100)
Other bets:
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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