A rocky start to the week has dropped me to 68-53 (+16.52 units) on the season. There was nothing fun about watching the Panthers and Wild blow late leads on Monday night, only to lose in overtime.
But that's hockey, and we've had a few of those go our way this year as well.
Here are a couple of plays I've singled out for Thursday.
Rangers (-115) @ Devils (-105)
I enjoyed betting the Devils early in the season, but they've managed just 43.18% of the expected goal share at five-on-five across their last seven games. That number drops even further at all strengths, with the Devils struggling a great deal on special teams. Their power play ranks 27th in the league, while the penalty kill is dead last by a wide margin with just a 63% success rate. To put that miserable number into perspective, the Red Wings are second-worst, sitting at 70.4%.
To compound matters, New Jersey will be without captain Nico Hischier once again after he took a puck to the face in Saturday's game against the Capitals. The Rangers appear to be getting Kaapo Kakko back - he hasn't played since Feb. 18 - and while Artemi Panarin remains away from the team for the fifth game, they've been managing well in his absence with 52.48% of the expected goal share at five-on-five.
Oddsmakers were too low on the Devils early on, and after finally catching up, there seems to be an overcorrection happening now. They're also too low on a Rangers team playing strong hockey without their leading scorer. We're getting a bargain on the Blueshirts on Thursday.
Pick: Rangers (-115)
Flyers (-120) @ Penguins (+110)
After cashing on the Penguins on Tuesday, I'm really liking this bounce-back spot for the Flyers. The Pens have struggled in the second of two-game sets, putting in much more convincing performances in the initial meeting. They've lost the second game in three of the last four occasions after winning the first, and the underlying numbers show that's hardly a coincidence.
| Opponent | xGF% (Game 1) | xGF% (Game 2) |
|---|---|---|
| Capitals | 55.2 | 28.7 |
| Islanders | 63.61 | 37.45 |
| Capitals | 59.24 | 40.26 |
| Islanders | 54.37 | 30.24 |
| Flyers | 48.88 | ??? |
Thursday's ask is even tougher as they're once again without Sidney Crosby after rallying impressively in the captain's absence in the opener. Meanwhile, the Flyers are getting healthy, and have no notable absences after Travis Konecny returned to the lineup on Tuesday.
Tuesday's scoreline was a bit flattering for the Penguins, who capitalized on a rough outing from Carter Hart. The young netminder has had his share of struggles this season, but we won't have to worry about that here as Brian Elliott is expected to get the start. The man they call "Moose" has been nothing short of spectacular this season, ranking third in the NHL in GSAA/60 among goalies with at least five starts. He's also posted a terrific 4.41 GSAx, ranking ninth in the league, while Hart sits 64th out of 69 goalies with a minus-7.84 mark.
Pick: Flyers (-120)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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