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Our perfect 8-0 run came to an end Thursday night as the Blackhawks blew a pair of third-period leads against the Blue Jackets, forcing us to settle for a 1-1 split.
Still, I'm feeling Jack Roslovic dangerous right now - we're both on some next-level heaters - so let's make it count this weekend:
Hurricanes (-130) @ Stars (+110)
The Hurricanes moved to 3-0-0 against the Stars this season with a 5-3 win in Dallas on Thursday night, but I'm looking the other way in Saturday's rematch. The Stars have been drastically better in the second leg of two-game sets this year. Whether it's a product of coaching or experience, their five-on-five splits are undeniable:
| Opponent | xGF% (Game 1) | xGF% (Game 2) |
|---|---|---|
| Predators | 33.00% | 60.55% |
| Red Wings | 49.14% | 67.96% |
| Hurricanes | 36.36% | 55.56% |
| Blue Jackets | 53.13% | 67.44% |
| Blackhawks | 50.00% | 57.45% |
| Hurricanes | 50.93% | TBD |
Central Division teams have also struggled brutally on the road in the back halves of two-game series, with home teams going 20-3 straight up in those situations. All three of Carolina's losses this season have come in the second contests of two-game sets on the road; the Hurricanes are 0-3 in such situations, losing in Detroit, Chicago, and Columbus.
The Stars have held a slight edge over Carolina at five-on-five in the last two meetings, and they're due for a bit of positive regression after losing both. Factor in the rematch boost on home ice and Dallas is an excellent value play at plus-money.
Pick: Stars (+110)
Flames (-140) @ Canucks (+120)
There's no hiding the Canucks' miserable start to the season. They're completely out of sorts defensively, and the underlying numbers aren't pretty. That means the only way for this team to go is up. A brutally tough schedule to open the campaign has already seen Vancouver play a total of eight games against the Maple Leafs and Canadiens. The Canucks are 5-4-0 against the rest of the North Division and due for positive regression overall.
Vancouver played really well in the first of four straight games against the Flames on Thursday, despite the loss. Jacob Markstrom was excellent against his former team, allowing just one goal despite the Canucks controlling 62.18% of the expected goal share; there are plenty of positives for this team to draw from the loss as it looks to end a six-game skid.
The Canucks have managed just over 50% of the expected goal share at five-on-five on home ice this year, with the Flames a hair below 50% on the road. Calgary is undeniably the better team, but this line presents good value on a Vancouver team due for an uptick in the luck department.
Pick: Canucks (+120)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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