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There's nothing quite like waking up the morning after sweeping the board.
A 3-0 night Thursday continued the momentum from a 4-2 start to the week, and we're now sitting at 7-2 over the last four days heading into the weekend.
Here's what I'm looking to bet these next few days:
Sharks (+100) @ Ducks (-120)
Feb. 5, 10 p.m. ET
This is one of three plays I have on the ice tonight, but it's the one Friday bet I want to dive deeper on. The other two - Bruins over Flyers and Panthers over Predators - are down to getting the better team at a relatively short price with a significant edge in the goaltending matchup. Brian Elliott will start for Philadelphia, while Florida has a massive advantage between the pipes with Chris Driedger starting opposite Pekka Rinne.
For this West Division game, though, we care less about who starts in net. It's the first half of a back-to-back with these teams slated to meet again Saturday, but assuming John Gibson starts for the Ducks, the Sharks lose in this area regardless. Any changes in the crease can only help our cause.
San Jose moves down a weight class here after a tough schedule thus far, and a one-week break should have served the Sharks well - especially on the back end where Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson rank first and third in the NHL, respectively, in average ice time per game.
The Sharks are 30th in the NHL in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five, but much of that inefficiency can be attributed to their schedule. The Ducks, meanwhile, ranked 31st before their game against the Kings on Tuesday. San Jose is the better team at all strengths in Corsi For percentage, shot percentage, expected goals for, and expected goals against per 60 minutes, and it's generating more high-danger chances per game while allowing fewer. And this is all despite a tougher schedule. Simply put: The Sharks are bad, but the Ducks are worse.
Pick: Sharks (+100), Bruins (-130), Panthers (-125)
Oilers (+100) @ Flames (-120)
Feb. 6, 10 p.m.
These heated rivals meet Saturday night in this season's first edition of the Battle of Alberta. While these two teams are expected to be in a fierce scrap for a playoff spot in the North Division, I'm quite confident in which horse I'd like to back here.
The Flames don't have a Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but they're the better all-around team than the Oilers. They're deeper, they play a smarter and stronger game, they're far more adept defensively, and they hold a significant edge in goal.
Calgary has been strong at five-on-five this year, owning at least 54% of the expected goal share in all but three of its games. The Flames are top 10 in Corsi For percentage and expected goals for percentage, but they rank bottom 10 in shooting percentage; that combination screams positive regression. The Oilers, on the other hand, rank 22nd in Corsi For percentage and 15th in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five. The Flames play a more sustainable brand of hockey and have the better netminder in Jacob Markstrom, making them a bargain at this price.
Pick: Flames (-120)
Hurricanes (N/A) @ Blue Jackets (N/A)
Feb. 7, 3 p.m.
As more people realize the Hurricanes are among the NHL's best, spots to back this team will become less and less prevalent. I've got Sunday's contest circled, though: We should get a reasonable price after the Blue Jackets beat the Stars and Carolina lost to Chicago to close out a somewhat unconvincing two-game series against the Blackhawks.
The Hurricanes controlled 58% of the expected goal share at five-on-five against Chicago, on par with their season mark of 56.68% - the second-best figure in the NHL. They were undone Thursday by three Blackhawks power-play goals, which isn't a concern here. Chicago's power play ranks fourth in the NHL, converting at a 32.7% clip through Thursday, while Columbus sits 24th with a modest 16.4% success rate.
Factoring in what we know about the Blue Jackets - that they struggle mightily in the first game against a new opponent - swings the needle further in Carolina's direction. I've used the chart below three times now, but there's been no reason to stray from it. Columbus has been terrible in its first go against a new opponent, and it's set for a date with a Hurricanes team that's better at five-on-five than any unit the Blue Jackets have faced this season.
| Opponent | xGF% (Game 1) | xGF% (Game 2) |
|---|---|---|
| Predators | 46.53% | 64.05% |
| Red Wings | 36.95% | 53.83% |
| Lightning | 33.33% | 56.48% |
| Panthers | 29.92% | 48.55% |
| Blackhawks | 37.41% | 56.31% |
| Stars | 42.06% | 31.57% |
With no special teams advantage or goaltending edge to consider for Columbus, I'd be comfortable playing Carolina all the way up to -140.
Pick: Hurricanes (-140 or better)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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