NHL betting preview: Best bets for Wednesday and Thursday night

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We started the week hot and would like to keep that momentum rolling into the weekend.

The next two days are relatively quiet for the NHL with just 11 games scheduled, but there are still a couple of spots that offer us good value.

Here's what we'll be betting:

Oilers (+135) @ Maple Leafs (-155); Jan. 20, 7 p.m. ET

The Oilers have had a miserable start to the season, and that's opened up a rare value opportunity to back a team that's typically overpriced in the market. I'm not particularly high on Edmonton this season, but this matchup features two similar squads that are being priced very differently based on small sample sizes.

The Oilers never could get things going in a two-game set against a very sound Canadiens team; we saw that coming from a mile away, backing the Habs in both games. Montreal matches up well with Edmonton, consistently ranking among the league's best teams at five-on-five under head coach Claude Julien. The Canadiens have especially excelled at suppressing offense, ranking top 10 in expected goals against in three seasons under Julien. The Maple Leafs have ranked 21st, 27th, and 28th in that category in those three years.

Edmonton also struggled mightily on the power play in two games against Montreal, going a combined 0-for-10. This was the league's best unit a year ago, so we have to give it the benefit of the doubt with a sample size too small to make any definitive judgements. The Maple Leafs play a style far more conducive to success for the Oilers, giving up numerous high-danger chances while getting below-average goaltending.

This line is a bit too high for my liking, and I don't love the idea of backing a struggling Oilers team I've been down on since before the season started. But at this price, I'll place the bet, close my eyes, and hope for the best.

Pick: Oilers (+135)

Wild (-130) @ Ducks (+110); Jan. 20, 9:30 p.m.

John Gibson stole a 1-0 win on Monday when these teams met for the first time this season, giving the Ducks their first victory of the campaign. The Wild owned 67.56% of the expected goal share in that game, posting a 3.69 xGF to Anaheim's 1.77. Gibson pitched a shutout despite that disparity, saving all 11 high-danger shots he faced.

Being thoroughly outplayed has been a common theme for the Ducks early in the season. They've owned just 34.78% of the expected goals share through three games, by far the worst mark in the league; the Jets are second-worst with 40.16%. The Wild, meanwhile, are second-best in that regard with a 58.69% mark, and they top the NHL with a 61.36% rate at five-on-five.

This will be another lopsided game. With the balance of play so distorted, I'd make this bet 10 times out of 10 at this price and hope Gibson doesn't steal the show once again. While that's always a possibility, no bet is without risk,

Pick: Wild (-130)

Flyers (+105) @ Bruins (-125), Jan. 21, 7 p.m.

By now, you've heard all about how the Bruins have yet to score a goal at five-on-five this season. You've probably heard people question whether this team has fallen off a cliff or if it can get back on track without David Pastrnak. All of it works in our favor here, as we get Boston at a small discount - smaller than I would have liked, but still sufficient to lock the Bruins in as a bet.

You can be certain that positive regression is coming for Boston. The Bruins have run into some excellent goaltending early in the campaign, facing MacKenzie Blackwood twice and Semyon Varlamov once. Those two lead the NHL in goals saved above average through the first week of the season, and it isn't particularly close.

Rank Goalie GSAA
1 MacKenzie Blackwood 4.80
2 Semyon Varlamov 4.79
3 Juuse Saros 3.95
4 Brian Elliott 3.16
5 John Gibson 2.92

Simply put, the Bruins have been stonewalled by a pair of hot goalies. They owned 57.71% of the expected goal share at five-on-five in their season opener against the Devils and a 60.61% mark in Monday's 1-0 loss to the Islanders. Boston's fortunes are going to level out real soon.

For the Flyers, however, regression looms large. Philadelphia has enjoyed a 3-1-0 start to the season despite being one of the league's worst teams at five-on-five thus far. The team has been considerably outplayed, owning just 44.42% of the expected goals share. This is a great sell-high moment for Philadelphia and an equally good time to buy low on the Bruins.

Pick: Bruins (-125)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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Sabres HC: Provorov knew what he was doing in collision with Hutton

Buffalo Sabres head coach Ralph Krueger believes Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Ivan Provorov should be disciplined for his collision with goaltender Carter Hutton on Tuesday.

"If you look at the way the elbow comes extended, you know what you're doing," Krueger said postgame, according to The Athletic's Charlie O'Connor. "It's the fourth game where a player of ours has had a violent hit to the head and hopefully there will be action for this one."

It appeared Sabres defenseman Brandon Montour pushed Provorov into Hutton.

Provorov wasn't penalized on the play.

Hutton initially stayed in the game but didn't return following the second intermission. Krueger said after the contest that Hutton was still being assessed.

With Linus Ullmark already sidelined, the Sabres turned to third-string netminder Jonas Johansson, who allowed a goal on nine shots in relief.

One of the other plays Krueger is referring to is likely Nic Dowd's headshot on Eric Staal last week. The Washington Capitals forward received a two-minute elbowing minor but no supplemental discipline.

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Report: Penguins interested in Jets’ Roslovic

The Pittsburgh Penguins are eyeing unsigned Winnipeg Jets forward Jack Roslovic.

"Pittsburgh’s been pretty clear in its interest in Jack Roslovic, who is waiting for a trade from Winnipeg," Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman wrote in Tuesday's edition of "31 Thoughts."

However, Friedman cautioned that the Penguins aren't simply looking to make a reactionary move amid a slow start.

"One source indicated the interest shouldn’t be tied to the Penguins’ first two losses," he wrote. "It’s something they’ve looked at for a while."

Roslovic became a restricted free agent when the offseason began Oct. 9. In late December, his agent, Claude Lemieux, said his client wouldn't join the Jets at training camp as he waited for either a trade or a new contract.

The soon-to-be 24-year-old established career-highs with 12 goals and 17 assists in 71 games last season. He's spent all four of his NHL campaigns with the Jets, who drafted him 25th overall in 2015.

Winnipeg currently has no cap space. Pittsburgh has about $1.9 million, according to CapFriendly.

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Avalanche trade Cole to Wild for Pateryn

The Colorado Avalanche traded defenseman Ian Cole to the Minnesota Wild for blue-liner Greg Pateryn, the team announced Tuesday.

Both veteran rearguards are pending unrestricted free agents. Cole carries a cap hit of $4.25 million, while Pateryn's deal holds an annual value of $2.25 million. Colorado is retaining $800,000 of Cole's cap hit, according to CapFriendly.

Cole, 31, is a veteran of 543 NHL games. He won back-to-back Stanley Cups with the Pittsburgh Penguins and is known for his gritty defensive play. His career high in points is just 26 - which he tied last season - but he's also posted strong underlying numbers, accounting for nine goals above replacement in 2019-20, according to Evolving Hockey.

Pateryn is one year younger than Cole, but also far less experienced with 270 NHL games under his belt - and 41 career points. He was worth 3.9 goals above replacement in his last full NHL season in 2018-19. Injuries limited him to just 20 games last season, though.

It's possible the Avalanche made this move to create room in the lineup for rookie Bowen Byram. Colorado was deep on the left side of the blue line with Devon Toews, Ryan Graves, Sam Girard (who had been playing his off side), and Cole. Byram, the No. 4 pick in 2019, now has an easier path to playing time, and the team saves cap space in the process.

Pateryn, a righty, will likely jostle for playing time with Conor Timmins until Erik Johnson returns from injury.

Cole is projected to play on the Wild's third pairing with Carson Soucy. Minnesota already boasted one of the league's best blue lines before adding the experienced depth piece.

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Babcock calls Marner list incident ‘major mistake’ but disputes facts of story

It's been 14 months since the Toronto Maple Leafs fired Mike Babcock, and the former head coach has finally opened up regarding an incident that generated headlines following his dismissal.

Rumors surfaced days after the firing that Babcock made Mitch Marner rank his teammates by work ethic during Marner's rookie season in 2016-17 and later revealed the list to the team. But Babcock said only parts of that story are true.

"Yeah, that's not how that happened, actually," Babcock said, according to The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun.

He continued: "So Mitch was in my office. We were talking about work ethic. I asked him where he ranked on the scale. And that was no problem, that was just a private thing. It was a good meeting, Mitch left. But then I was meeting, I'm pretty sure it was with (Tyler) Bozak, afterward. Bozy was an important part of our team.

"What I ended up doing - and I made a big-time mistake, I knew as soon as I did it - when we were talking about competing and I said, 'Well, look where Mitch ranks it."'

Babcock said he immediately went to find Marner to address the situation.

"Well, as soon as I did that, and he saw the list, I knew that I had made a major mistake," Babcock said, according to LeBrun. "After the meeting with Bozak, I went right into the dressing room. I grabbed Mitch and said, 'Mitch, this is what I did. I screwed you here.'"

He added: "Now, in saying that, though, what I should have done in hindsight, I should have stopped everybody and said, 'This is what I did to Mitch. I screwed him.' Now, he didn't want to make a big deal out of it. But I could have made a lesser deal of it."

Marner said in November 2019 that the incident had been surprising, adding he felt lucky his teammates had supported him and hadn't taken the list to heart.

Babcock coached the Maples Leafs to a 173-133-45 record over parts of five seasons. The club made the playoffs in three straight campaigns under Babcock but failed to win a postseason series.

NBC hired the 57-year-old in a studio role last week.

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